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Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - Fort Bend Owl - 05-17-2014 08:49 AM
Most of it is set but there are a few minor standings changes that could occur today. Feel free to correct any errors.
We're locked in at the 1 seed.
UAB needs a win or a USM loss to be the 2 seed. Those two teams are the 2-3 seeds for sure, but USM has the tie-breaker if UAB loses today and they win.
ODU is the 4 seed.
FIU, Middle Tennessee and UTSA are all currently tied for 5th with a 16-13 record. East Carolina is one game back at 15-14. Those four will be the 5-8 seeds in some order or another. We'd probably prefer Middle Tennessee to win again today and be in the other bracket just to avoid Zac Curtis in the tournament opener.
Despite winning twice against UAB yesterday, FAU can't make it to the conference tournament since ECU holds the tie-breaker over them.
Marshall, Charlotte, Tulane and La. Tech were eliminated before this weekend began I believe.
ETA - I suspect that with USM in the other bracket, we'll be in the morning bracket on Wednesday and Thursday. That would mean we'd play at either 9 or 12:30 on Wednesday and Thursday (hopefully 12:30 on Thursday since that will be a winners' bracket game!). That's not for sure but that's usually how these tournaments work with the home team trying to play the evening games.
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - waltgreenberg - 05-17-2014 09:02 AM
I agree with your scenarios. I would think The OG would probably like to go with McDowell in the opener, if he can get away with it-- both to give McCanna and Fox an extra day of rest (in what will be a short rest week, regardless), and to save our best starters. Having said that, there is very little to separate the other 7 CUSA teams in this tournament. You simply want to try (and hope) to avoid the few elite pitchers (e.g., Curtis, Mallard, Franco).
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - temchugh - 05-17-2014 12:02 PM
I don't think that ODU has the four seed locked up. If FIU, UTSA, and/or Middle Tennessee win today, they will also be 17-13. If looks like Middle Tennessee would be the only one of those three that wins the head-to-head tie-breaker with ODU. Even then, ODU would be the fifth seed, which is not really any different than forth.
However, it seems likely that there will be three or four teams that finish 17-13 (tied for forth). I'm not smart enough to figure out how that tie breaker would work.
Anyone know the rules for a 3-way or 4-way tie?
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - Frizzy Owl - 05-17-2014 12:48 PM
The best info I could find is a few years old and not very clear, but it said next tiebreaker is winning percentage vs conference team with highest percentage, then RPI rating, then coin flip.
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - NoodleOwl - 05-17-2014 01:23 PM
I think you're right - if MT wins, they're 4-seed, as they would win both a H2H tiebreak vs. ODU and any possible multi-way tiebreak by virtue of having the best record vs. us.
ODU can't do worse than 5th, as they win all other combinations of tiebreaks vs. FIU and UTSA. (H2H over both, and in a 3-way tie, FIU comes out on bottom due to our sweep of them, leaving the ODU/UTSA tie to be resolved by H2H)
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - Fort Bend Owl - 05-17-2014 04:01 PM
I guess I messed up on ODU but it still looks like they and Middle Tennessee are in our bracket as the 4/5 seeds (in some order or another).
It appears UTSA will be the 8 seed which probably would be my preference among ECU, FIU and them. So our bracket should be us, ODU, MTSU and UTSA, and the other side should be UAB, USM, ECU and FIU.
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - NoodleOwl - 05-17-2014 04:27 PM
1 - Rice, 2 - UAB, 3 - USM
MT wins and is 4. ODU is 5.
FIU/ECU/UTSA tie at 16-14. They seed in order of their record vs. us. ECU 6 seed (2-1), UTSA 7 seed (1-2), FIU 8 seed (0-3).
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - Fort Bend Owl - 05-17-2014 04:41 PM
What a stupid tie-breaker method. Shouldn't it be head-to-head record against the three teams involved in the tie first?
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - NoodleOwl - 05-17-2014 04:42 PM
(05-17-2014 04:41 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: What a stupid tie-breaker method. Shouldn't it be head-to-head record against the three teams involved in the tie first?
Well, except with the unbalanced schedule, the teams don't all play each other. FIU & UTSA didn't play.
Although, if they decide to do that (not that CUSA would ever fiddle with a tiebreak method after the season concludes, cough, cough).. FIU is 3-0 vs. the rest, ECU 2-4, UTSA 1-2.. so the seeding would be FIU-6/ECU-7/UTSA-8.
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - NoodleOwl - 05-17-2014 04:48 PM
Official:
Conference USA
Seeding and Opening Day schedule for the C-USA Baseball Championship in Hattiesburg, Miss.
Wednesday, May 21
Game 1 (5) Old Dominion vs. (4) Middle Tennessee 9:00a
Game 2 (8) FIU vs. (1) Rice 12:30p
Game 3 (7) UTSA vs. (2) UAB 4:00p
Game 4 (6) East Carolina vs. (3) Southern Miss 7:30p
All times central
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - Almadenmike - 05-17-2014 05:27 PM
(05-17-2014 09:02 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote: You simply want to try (and hope) to avoid the few elite pitchers (e.g., Curtis, Mallard, Franco).
(05-17-2014 04:48 PM)NoodleOwl Wrote: Seeding and Opening Day schedule for the C-USA Baseball Championship in Hattiesburg, Miss.
Wednesday, May 21
Game 1 (5) Old Dominion vs. (4) Middle Tennessee 9:00a
Game 2 (8) FIU vs. (1) Rice 12:30p
Game 3 (7) UTSA vs. (2) UAB 4:00p
Game 4 (6) East Carolina vs. (3) Southern Miss 7:30p
All times central
So we get Mike Franco in the first game?
We got only 3 hits and 2 runs (1 earned) and 7 Ks / 3 BBs off him on March 14 in Miami ... a game Rice won with a run in T13 (single, sac bunt (!!!), single).
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - waltgreenberg - 05-17-2014 07:11 PM
(05-17-2014 05:27 PM)Almadenmike Wrote:(05-17-2014 09:02 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote: You simply want to try (and hope) to avoid the few elite pitchers (e.g., Curtis, Mallard, Franco).
(05-17-2014 04:48 PM)NoodleOwl Wrote: Seeding and Opening Day schedule for the C-USA Baseball Championship in Hattiesburg, Miss.
Wednesday, May 21
Game 1 (5) Old Dominion vs. (4) Middle Tennessee 9:00a
Game 2 (8) FIU vs. (1) Rice 12:30p
Game 3 (7) UTSA vs. (2) UAB 4:00p
Game 4 (6) East Carolina vs. (3) Southern Miss 7:30p
All times central
So we get Mike Franco in the first game?
We got only 3 hits and 2 runs (1 earned) and 7 Ks / 3 BBs off him on March 14 in Miami ... a game Rice won with a run in T13 (single, sac bunt (!!!), single).
Amongst starting pitchers, Franco leads CUSA in innings pitched (95.2), complete games (4), ERA (1.13) and strikeouts (107). He has a K:BB ratio better than 4.0, and has a WHIP of 0.93.
Oh, and FIU's leads the conference in AVG, OBP, BBs (over 4/game) and runs scored, and are second in stolen bases. Granted, their stats are inflated due to their weak schedule, but still. I don't think we could have gotten a tougher draw. If our pitchers do not throw strikes, we're in for a walkathon. Not the opposing pitcher and offense I want McDowell to go up against. Should be interesting to see which way The OG decides to go.
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - NoodleOwl - 05-17-2014 07:44 PM
I'd say go with Fox in Game 1 (4 days rest). He's our best, most consistent pitcher, and the game 1 pitcher (Wednesday) is probably the only one you think about coming back to on Sunday for the championship game, should we reach it. That would also let McCanna get the normal week's rest before the Thursday game against ODU or MTSU's #2 guy.
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - Frizzy Owl - 05-17-2014 08:14 PM
Bring on FIU! Enough of this hoping we can survive by somehow avoiding quality opposition in post season. If we can't beat FIU then frankly we don't deserve to go any further. Let's find out up front. Go Rice!
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - 13thOwl - 05-17-2014 09:12 PM
(05-17-2014 08:14 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote: Bring on FIU! Enough of this hoping we can survive by somehow avoiding quality opposition in post season. If we can't beat FIU then frankly we don't deserve to go any further. Let's find out up front. Go Rice!
I agree to a point. If they don't handle a good pitcher today, that doesn't mean they won't do it tomorrow. I would hate to think in terms of all or nothing, before those terms are forced on Rice.
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - waltgreenberg - 05-17-2014 09:21 PM
(05-17-2014 07:44 PM)NoodleOwl Wrote: I'd say go with Fox in Game 1 (4 days rest). He's our best, most consistent pitcher, and the game 1 pitcher (Wednesday) is probably the only one you think about coming back to on Sunday for the championship game, should we reach it. That would also let McCanna get the normal week's rest before the Thursday game against ODU or MTSU's #2 guy.
I doubt it, as Blake threw over 100 pitches yesterday. No question he's our best and most consistent starter, and our best strike thrower (plus keeps basestealers close to the bag), but it would be asking an awful lot for him to go again on Wednesday noon when he last pitched Friday evening.
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - temchugh - 05-17-2014 09:49 PM
I a agree with Walt; Blake will not pitch on Wednesday.
I'm fine with McCanna pitching Wednesday. However, I would understand the logic of pitching McDowell on Wednesday. I believe thAt we are lock for hosting a regional. So our performance in the conference tournament is of no real consequence. Pitching McDowell on Wednesday, McCanna on Thu, and Fox in the third game sets us up better for the regional as far as days of rest goes. The risk of going 0-2 would be higher, but that would be ok.
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - waltgreenberg - 05-17-2014 10:04 PM
(05-17-2014 09:49 PM)temchugh Wrote: I a agree with Walt; Blake will not pitch on Wednesday.
I'm fine with McCanna pitching Wednesday. However, I would understand the logic of pitching McDowell on Wednesday. I believe thAt we are lock for hosting a regional. So our performance in the conference tournament is of no real consequence. Pitching McDowell on Wednesday, McCanna on Thu, and Fox in the third game sets us up better for the regional as far as days of rest goes. The risk of going 0-2 would be higher, but that would be ok.
We are not yet a lock to host a regional. I suggest you take a look at Warren Nolan's Nitty Gritty Report: http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/nitty
...and recognize that the Committee will look beyond RPI to get a 3rd Western host (likely Washington) and, possibly, another "newbie" host site. We have the RPI (at least for the moment) and the conference regular season championship, but the Committee will notice that CUSA is the #8th ranked conference. We do not have a particularly strong hosting-worthy resume with regards to record vs. Top 25/50 (3-6 vs. Top 25, 8-10 vs. Top 50). Bottom line-- we can ill-afford to go 2 & Q. Should we win one game we should be safe (but not a lock).
As for setting up for the regionals, we'll have a full week to rest up and go with our preferred rotation, regardless to how far we go in Hattiesburg. Note-- the regionals don't start until the following Friday or Saturday, depending on which side of the bracket we're placed. Had our first game opponent not been FIU, I would have agreed on McDowell as a viable option...but not when you're going against arguably the best starting pitcher in the conference and the best offensive club...and Chase has had but one good outing in his last 3 - 4 appearances.
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - waltgreenberg - 05-18-2014 07:27 AM
(05-17-2014 10:04 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:(05-17-2014 09:49 PM)temchugh Wrote: I a agree with Walt; Blake will not pitch on Wednesday.
I'm fine with McCanna pitching Wednesday. However, I would understand the logic of pitching McDowell on Wednesday. I believe thAt we are lock for hosting a regional. So our performance in the conference tournament is of no real consequence. Pitching McDowell on Wednesday, McCanna on Thu, and Fox in the third game sets us up better for the regional as far as days of rest goes. The risk of going 0-2 would be higher, but that would be ok.
We are not yet a lock to host a regional. I suggest you take a look at Warren Nolan's Nitty Gritty Report: http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/nitty
...and recognize that the Committee will look beyond RPI to get a 3rd Western host (likely Washington) and, possibly, another "newbie" host site. We have the RPI (at least for the moment) and the conference regular season championship, but the Committee will notice that CUSA is the #8th ranked conference. We do not have a particularly strong hosting-worthy resume with regards to record vs. Top 25/50 (3-6 vs. Top 25, 8-10 vs. Top 50). Bottom line-- we can ill-afford to go 2 & Q. Should we win one game we should be safe (but not a lock).
As for setting up for the regionals, we'll have a full week to rest up and go with our preferred rotation, regardless to how far we go in Hattiesburg. Note-- the regionals don't start until the following Friday or Saturday, depending on which side of the bracket we're placed. Had our first game opponent not been FIU, I would have agreed on McDowell as a viable option...but not when you're going against arguably the best starting pitcher in the conference and the best offensive club...and Chase has had but one good outing in his last 3 - 4 appearances.
For those believing we're a lock to host, I suggest reading Kendall's stock report this morning, in which he actually makes the case for both Louisville and LSU over Rice and UH (with Cal Poly, Washington, Oklahoma State, Vandy, TCU and South Carolina ahead of us as regional hosts beyond the 8 national seeds). I do think UH is in jeopardy if they don't advance to the AAC championship, given they finished in 3rd place in conference (4 1/5 games behind Louisville), but save for conference positioning, UH blows us away resume-wise, including their 3-0 record against us. At this point, I think the Committee has an valid excuse--with other viable, justifiable options-- for NOT giving the city of Houston two host spots. In fact, unless both of us win our conference tournaments, at this point, I'd bet against both of us hosting. The question is whether the Committee puts greater weight on conference champions or overall resume...
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9896
Quote:LOOKING AT THE HOSTS
There are some things to discuss from a hosting perspective after Saturday's contests. Beyond the national seeds, we entered the week with Houston, Cal Poly, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Washington, TCU, Vanderbilt and Rice as hosts. However, LSU and Louisville also are teams to watch entering conference tournament action next week.
The Tigers took a major step back in the hosting discussion three weeks ago with a series loss at Texas A&M, but have played well since, splitting a rain-shortened series at home against Alabama last weekend, while hitting the road and sweeping Auburn this weekend. I don't think the Tigers have surpassed Houston or Rice just yet, but they're close, and a strong showing in the SEC tournament might do the trick.
Going inside the Tigers' resume, they have an RPI of 16 after Saturday's victory over Auburn, while they're 4-8 vs. RPI Top 25, 12-12 vs. RPI Top 50 and 18-12 vs. RPI Top 100. LSU also finished the regular season third in the SEC standings. Those are compelling arguments and it makes next week's SEC tournament crucial. If the Tigers don't host, a seamless transition over to the Lafayette, La., Regional likely is on the docket.
As for Louisville, it also is very much in the hosting mix, and there are reasons for committee members to choose the Cards over UH as a host. For instance, the Cards took a road series over UH and won the American Athletic Conference crown, finishing four and a half games in front of the Cougars. UL has an RPI of 19 with a 4-5 mark vs. RPI Top 25, 6-7 mark vs. RPI Top 50 and 13-8 record vs. RPI Top 100.
I'm not ready to officially make the switch to LSU or Louisville as host sites, but my confidence level with Houston and Rice has decreased this weekend.
If you're looking for a surprise host, watch out for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are a long shot to host right now, but always think outside the box. Tech has a head-to-head series win over Indiana to its credit, a fourth-place Big 12 finish, 40 wins, a top-15 RPI, and eight wins vs. RPI Top 25 teams to go with a 26-15 mark vs. RPI Top 100.
Of course, what Kendall fails to recognize in his analysis is that it is HIGLY unlikely that the Committee is going to name 5 SEC teams as regional hosts (along with 3 ACC teams (UVA, FSU, Miami). Consequently, if LSU runs through the SEC tourney and gets to host, it will knock out either South Carolina or Vandy.
RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios - temchugh - 05-18-2014 09:48 AM
Over the past five years, the NCAA has stuck very close to RPI in handing out regional hosting spots. Regarding pre-tournament top 16 RPI teams:
2013: 15 of 16 hosted regionals
2012: 15 of 15 hosted regionals (Arizona St. was not eligible due to probation)
2011: 13 of 16 hosted regionals
2010: 14 of 16 hosted regionals
2009: 13 of 16 hosted regionals
Of the nine top 16 RPI teams that did not host regionals, none of them had won their regular season conference championship. In other words, over the last five years, 100% of top 16 RPI teams that also won their regular season conference title have hosted regionals. The nine teams denied regionals were commonly major conference teams that finished well down in their conference standings.
Selection of regional hosts is made by a committee rather than clearly defined strictly objective criteria, so no one is a "lock" until the host sites are announced. However, I feel comfortable speculating that we will host regardless of our performance in the conference tournament.