(04-24-2013 04:10 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote: (04-24-2013 01:58 PM)College Basketball Fan Wrote: (04-24-2013 01:32 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote: (04-24-2013 01:26 PM)College Basketball Fan Wrote: B1G adds KU and Vanderbilt.
Pac12 adds Texas, OU, OSU, and TTech
SEC takes whatever they want from the rest
ACC tries to keep its football schools from the SEC and adds teams like UConn, Cinncinati, and West Virginia. Maybe Memphis. Who really knows.
Well this theory will certainly keep the realignment board alive...
Note the lack of a time-table. It might take 15 years for this to happen, but I think this is how it will go.
With the way The Realignment Turns has occurred over the last 5 years, I think we can conclude on some principles for the big conferences. All of these arguments exclude the University of Texas and Florida, whom anyone would take, principles be damned:
BIG - Only taking flagship AAU members in contiguous states. A private AAU school like Duke or Vandy could be taken if required to get to a desired number, but they are not jumping ahead of any flagship. (Future considerations in loose order or BIG appeal: UNC, UVA, Mizzou, Kansas, Duke, Vandy)
SEC - Only taking flagship in contiguous states. (UNC, UVA, Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virginia)
PAC - No one west of the Texas-Dakota line. High profile flagship or state schools (OU, Kansas, Ok. State, Kansas State, Texas Tech)
Big 12 - Who knows. I see no good options.
ACC - Whatever they have to do (Compromising on Louisville academics says a lot.)
I'm operating on a few assumptions:
1. Eventually one of the Power5 will crack and disintegrate
2. The Big 12 is the most likely to break up for a variety of factors (time-table on GoR included)
3. If the Big 12 breaks up, it will NOT be Texas making the first move.
4. KU is the only real option in the Big 12 to leave to the B1G (AAU, continuous states principle)
5. If KU leaves, the Big 12 is more likely to split apart than stay together.
So basically you have KU to the B1G and Texoma to the Pac16. Then:
6. If we need 4 power conferences, the ACC cannot blow up at the same time as the Big 12.
7. With no ACC members leaving for the B1G, Vanderbilt is the only choice to offset KU
8. The SEC would be able to pick and choose from Big 12 and smaller conferences teams to replace Vanderbilt. Maybe a team like KState?
If #6 and #7 aren't true, then the SEC/B1G will probably raid the ACC. That would mean:
9. UVA/Duke/UNC to the B1G/SEC
10. UConn/Cincinnati/WVU? to the ACC to make up for the losses
I'm not sure where the Baylorss and TCUs of the Big 12 will go. Probably somewhere like the AAC. I certainly don't see them jumping from one sinking ship to the Pac 16 or SEC. I do think Texas/Oklahoma/OSU are a package deal, and wouldn't be surprised to see Texas Tech included as well (otherwise, expect a Boise State or BYU).