BigHouston
STRONG
Posts: 12,203
Joined: Jan 2011
Reputation: 362
I Root For: HOUSTON, USC Trojans
Location: Houston Tx
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RE: Memphis #3 ranked college market / Article - Memphis & the Big 12
(11-30-2014 04:40 PM)UofMstateU Wrote: (11-30-2014 04:23 PM)mtmedlin Wrote: (11-30-2014 09:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote: (11-30-2014 01:27 AM)BigHouston Wrote: (11-30-2014 12:10 AM)UofMstateU Wrote: The b12 without Texas, Texas tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma state would still consist of Baylor, TCU, and Kansas state, currently ranked #5, #6, and #11 in the country. They would still be the third best conference behind the sec and PAC. And those 4 schools have signed their rights over to the b12, so they ain't going anywhere anytime soon. This is why Texas is no longer the threat they were.
Why is it so hard for many of you to comprehend
Doesn't matter what anyone says... UT is everyone's daddy in that conference, nothing gets done with out UT's approval... Or let me put it this way... Texas leaves, Oklahoma follows, if those two are gone, so is the contract $$$ and the B12 dies.
Because what you said IS NOT TRUE AT THIS POINT, on two fronts:
This is not the b12 from 3years ago. Texas can not go anywhere for years. They have signed away their tv rights.
You said if Texas and Oklahoma are gone, so is the contract and the b12 dies. Also not true, as I pointed out the b12 would still be one of the stronger football conferences.
This is why Texas is getting outvoted. They no longer call the shots, and can't go anywhere at the moment. Whoever the other members of the b12 want in the conference, they will get, no matter what Texas thinks. Which is why TCU is currently in the conference.
And as long as Texas wants to keep the long horn network, they won't be going anywhere even after the gor expires.
All contracts can be gotten out of and for a reduced cost. Maryland should have had to pay $50 million plus loss of television revenue but instead they walked for about $35 million total. If Texas decides its in their best interest to leave, they will. Money isnt an object. They can raise $100 million in under 50 calls...or less.
Do I think they do it...Nope. But give them 10 years and It may become a reality... plus there are rumored performance escape clauses. Not certain I believe them though.
HERES whats important... The Grant of Rights doesnt specify damages. If a team decides to leave and you want to sue, you have to prove damages... thats REALLY hard to do If ESPN does not lower the tv contract.
So heres the scenario. 6-10 years has gone by and the longwhore network is losing cash and not gaining traction. Texas isnt happy and the Pac 12 is making money hand over fist (which is already happening). Texas decides to leave. The GOR says they have to leave their TV rights with the league, or be sued. Texas says, sue us! Now the Big 12 has to prove damages... well ESPN and Fox are the tv partner for both. Within that time frame the value of tv contracts will have gone up. The big 10 in 2016 is gonna set a new record... I am guessing over $30 million a team.
So ESPN says, hey well just add 6 AAC teams to the Big 12 and keep the contract as is. No reduction in payout... Now how do the 6 teams left behind prove damages? There arent really. Maybe decreased attendance at home games, but those damages will be covered in an exit fee. So texas pays $30 or $40 million, which they will recoup in under 4 years in the Pac12 and its a done deal.
Ive said all along that I think ESPN wants Texas, Tech, OK and State in the PAC12 and then the leftover teams were supposed to go to the Big East. We didnt play ball and got destroyed for it. Now the move will be made later, and of course ESPN will extend their contract to lock up those teams... and will move 6 AAC teams into the Big 12 and extend their contract. ESPN is the puppet master and they have time to slowly playout the game as they see fit. They will get their 4 power conferences and then one other.... they will eventually get to a large playoff and they will end up breaking away from the NCAA. It just takes time.
But if espn doesn't lower the contract if Texas leaves, then the b12 doesn't just survive, it thrives.
The tv gods $$$ will always follow UT... The little guys/towns bears/Waco and tech/Lubbock to name a few, heavily rely off Texas.
Again, Texas leaves Oklahoma and Kansas will sure follow... Leaving the not so B12 programs anymore but now small town (lol) programs for the first time to defend for themselves. Yikes, no way I would want Houston in that cluster f*** of a conference.
Now, if Texas leaves but Oklahoma and Kansas stay, than yes, the B12 still remains a good respectable conference. One I wouldn't mind Houston to be a part of.
That said, and for selfish reasons, I would much rather have Houston in the PAC if that ever occur.
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