Quote:In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast. Since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is more or less exactly where my model has had it.

Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: “C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?”

So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opini...arris.html

PUNCH DRUNK

The democratic internal polls have gone way bad. Coupled with the early voting disaster, the people who know actually know where this is headed.

(10-23-2024 02:30 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The democratic internal polls have gone way bad. Coupled with the early voting disaster, the people who know actually know where this is headed.

Trump just posted an encouragement for Maine Republicans to vote early. That’s very telling

Tim Murtaugh just said that Trump's internal polls, which they believe more than anybody else's, b/c they don't do any funny business either direction, show Trump is leading in all 7 swing states.

(10-23-2024 02:52 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Tim Murtaugh just said that Trump's internal polls, which they believe more than anybody else's, b/c they don't do any funny business either direction, show Trump is leading in all 7 swing states.

Yes, but the margin is very, very tight.

Real Clear Politics all-polls average shows Trump leads in all 7 swing states.

But his lead is less than 1% in 5 of the 7 states. A small swing in turnout or sentiment could easily change the outcome.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/electio...und-states

Trump ALWAYS overperforms the polls

(10-23-2024 03:10 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-23-2024 02:52 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Tim Murtaugh just said that Trump's internal polls, which they believe more than anybody else's, b/c they don't do any funny business either direction, show Trump is leading in all 7 swing states.

Yes, but the margin is very, very tight.

Real Clear Politics all-polls average shows Trump leads in all 7 swing states.

But his lead is less than 1% in 5 of the 7 states. A small swing in turnout or sentiment could easily change the outcome.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/electio...und-states

In a normal election with a typical undecided population, I would agree. But there are practically no undecided voters at this point. I also think that Trump's supporters are undercounted, even in their own polls.

I also said elsewhere here that it now comes down to turnout.

(10-23-2024 03:11 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Trump ALWAYS overperforms the polls

Beat me to it.

Registered voters
Likely voters

Motivated voters

The fact Trump is trending up and Harris down with just 2 weeks to go says a whole lot.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

The Republicans are killing it in early voting turnout. If it is turnout driven, Trump is in a commanding position.

(10-23-2024 04:30 PM)Claw Wrote:  The Republicans are killing it in early voting turnout. If it is turnout driven, Trump is in a commanding position.

I'm hearing it's not Republicans are killing it, it's just Democrats aren't showing up (yet, at least). She has a big enthusiam problem

(10-23-2024 04:54 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  

(10-23-2024 04:30 PM)Claw Wrote:  The Republicans are killing it in early voting turnout. If it is turnout driven, Trump is in a commanding position.

I'm hearing it's not Republicans are killing it, it's just Democrats aren't showing up (yet, at least). She has a big enthusiam problem

that ranks up there with muh climate change stats based on 150-year strata vs. early voting that basically has zero statistical value ... this would also carry little weight due to the impact of comparing muh muh muh branch covidian era coupled with rule changes that are continually fluid due muh 10A...

I can't remember what I did five mins ago and yet, I can still remember that...

/sarc

(10-23-2024 05:01 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(10-23-2024 04:54 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  

(10-23-2024 04:30 PM)Claw Wrote:  The Republicans are killing it in early voting turnout. If it is turnout driven, Trump is in a commanding position.

I'm hearing it's not Republicans are killing it, it's just Democrats aren't showing up (yet, at least). She has a big enthusiam problem

that ranks up there with muh climate change stats based on 150-year strata vs. early voting that basically has zero statistical value ... this would also carry little weight due to the impact of comparing muh muh muh branch covidian era coupled with rule changes that are continually fluid due muh 10A...

I can't remember what I did five mins ago and yet, I can still remember that...

/sarc

There's people who do this for a living. But yeah, I wouldn't count on them not finding the votes they need even if 99.9% is in already.

(10-23-2024 04:30 PM)Claw Wrote:  The Republicans are killing it in early voting turnout. If it is turnout driven, Trump is in a commanding position.

Mark Halperin was reviewing the early turnout numbers with Charlie Kirk yesterday. He said the early voting numbers for Republicans are from low prop voters. Democrats early voting numbers are from their voters who vote early.

Halperin said if this continues, we’ll know who the winner is before Election Day.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5xaIuyb...rCm_rjTqFw

(10-23-2024 05:17 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(10-23-2024 04:30 PM)Claw Wrote:  The Republicans are killing it in early voting turnout. If it is turnout driven, Trump is in a commanding position.

Mark Halperin was reviewing the early turnout numbers with Charlie Kirk yesterday. He said the early voting numbers for Republicans are from low prop voters. Democrats early voting numbers are from their voters who vote early.

Halperin said if this continues, we’ll know who the winner is before Election Day.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5xaIuyb...rCm_rjTqFw

Halperin also said people are coming out of the woodwork pitching "bombshell stories" to the MSM that, if true, would end Trump's campaign. He was pitched one, but rejected it as untrue.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/journalist...e-end-race

They are as desperate as anything I’ve ever seen.


Keith Edward’s- Dem strategist. social guru

BREAKING: I have been told that Trump groped a minor at one of his donor dinners — and that there's video.

He knew Trump would win decisively. He just doesn't want to admit it and that's why he keeps saying it's 50:50.

But eventually he had to confess Trump would win; otherwise his credibility as a pollster would go down.

(10-23-2024 05:49 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  He knew Trump would win decisively. He just doesn't want to admit it and that's why he keeps saying it's 50:50.

But eventually he had to confess Trump would win; otherwise his credibility as a pollster statistician would go down.

NUMBERS GURU

(10-23-2024 05:37 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  They are as desperate as anything I’ve ever seen.


Keith Edward’s- Dem strategist. social guru

BREAKING: I have been told that Trump groped a minor at one of his donor dinners — and that there's video.

There is going to be at least one of these a day for the next 13 days.