https://www.carolinajournal.com/absentee...ographics/

Quote:As of last week’s data, Democrats account for about 66,500 requests, or 38%, down from 54% in 2022 and 50% in 2020. This indicates that their once-strong edge in mail-in voting is diminishing. While Democrats still lead in overall absentee requests, Republicans are closing the gap, in line with the GOP’s effort to ‘bank your vote’ before Election Day.

Republicans have increased their share, rising to about 40,000, or 23% of requests this year; compared to just 13% in 2022 and 17% in 2020, signaling substantial gains. Unaffiliated voters are also showing a steady increase, with their share growing from 32% in 2020 to 38% in 2024. Unaffiliated voters are the largest group of voters in the state.

This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know it goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

(09-24-2024 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know if goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

From the article

Quote:The North Carolina State Board of Elections said on Monday that county boards have received more than 207,600 absentee ballot requests for this election, including more than 19,000 requests from military and overseas voters. That compares to over 900,000 at this point in 2020, when Covid-19 drove many to stay home.

Less mail in voting with less Dems participating = bad early math for team blue

(09-24-2024 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know if goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

It’s true that there isn’t true data to support that the R’s are outperforming.

But the strategy has changed on the Republican side. They are trying to bank votes now instead of hoping they show up on Election Day. Considering that NC is usually red, there is nothing to signify that there will be a flip this year. Probably a margin of 2-3 points.

(09-24-2024 09:07 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know if goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

From the article

Quote:The North Carolina State Board of Elections said on Monday that county boards have received more than 207,600 absentee ballot requests for this election, including more than 19,000 requests from military and overseas voters. That compares to over 900,000 at this point in 2020, when Covid-19 drove many to stay home.

Less mail in voting with less Dems participating = bad early math for team blue

Or those Democrats who were concerned about voting in public during Covid aren't any longer.

(09-24-2024 09:18 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 09:07 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know if goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

From the article

Quote:The North Carolina State Board of Elections said on Monday that county boards have received more than 207,600 absentee ballot requests for this election, including more than 19,000 requests from military and overseas voters. That compares to over 900,000 at this point in 2020, when Covid-19 drove many to stay home.

Less mail in voting with less Dems participating = bad early math for team blue

Or those Democrats who were concerned about voting in public during Covid aren't any longer.

Sure thats a good chunk of it, but as Walktheplank said, NC was a red state and so far nothing in early voting is showing signs of worry.

But you never know what will happen on election day

In 2020 the mail-in & early votes didn’t look good in any of the states for the Democrats, then they found a lot more mail-in and early votes no one knew about about after they stopped at 2am.

The patriotic early morning mystery boxes of votes will happen again.

I'm just preparing for the horse-toothed braying Harris disadministration.

Forward!...or something equally stupid....

(09-24-2024 09:18 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 09:07 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know if goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

From the article

Quote:The North Carolina State Board of Elections said on Monday that county boards have received more than 207,600 absentee ballot requests for this election, including more than 19,000 requests from military and overseas voters. That compares to over 900,000 at this point in 2020, when Covid-19 drove many to stay home.

Less mail in voting with less Dems participating = bad early math for team blue

Or those Democrats who were concerned about voting in public during Covid aren't any longer.

Or Trump is going to win North Carolina by 8 points.

(09-24-2024 09:18 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 09:07 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know if goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

From the article

Quote:The North Carolina State Board of Elections said on Monday that county boards have received more than 207,600 absentee ballot requests for this election, including more than 19,000 requests from military and overseas voters. That compares to over 900,000 at this point in 2020, when Covid-19 drove many to stay home.

Less mail in voting with less Dems participating = bad early math for team blue

Or those Democrats who were concerned about voting in public during Covid aren't any longer.

That sentence, while seemingly benign to Tom, says a lot.

(09-24-2024 09:47 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  In 2020 the mail-in & early votes didn’t look good in any of the states for the Democrats, then they found a lot more mail-in and early votes no one knew about about after they stopped at 2am.

(09-24-2024 09:25 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 09:18 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 09:07 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know if goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

From the article

Quote:The North Carolina State Board of Elections said on Monday that county boards have received more than 207,600 absentee ballot requests for this election, including more than 19,000 requests from military and overseas voters. That compares to over 900,000 at this point in 2020, when Covid-19 drove many to stay home.

Less mail in voting with less Dems participating = bad early math for team blue

Or those Democrats who were concerned about voting in public during Covid aren't any longer.

Sure thats a good chunk of it, but as Walktheplank said, NC was a red state and so far nothing in early voting is showing signs of worry.

But you never know what will happen on election day

Yeah, who knows. But one thing is happening now, and that's Mark Robinson, who trump still supports.

(09-24-2024 10:12 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  The patriotic early morning mystery boxes of votes will happen again.

Right...those mystery boxes of...votes of the people who legally voted.

(09-24-2024 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know it goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

Fewer mail in ballots reduces the likelihood of fraud---not just my opinion---a bipartisan election integrity committee led by Jimmy Carter came to that same conclusion. Furthermore, as I said before, its pretty clear all the mail in ballot security protocols you are so proud of are not being followed (we know this when we see signatures that are completely unrelated to the name on the ballot pass the "secure verification" process). That said, voting by mail tends to increase total vote because it is appealing to low effort voters who would otherwise have a low propensity to vote.

Mail-in voting should favor Republicans.

Who votes mail-in? Those who are too sick or might become sick (elderly). Deployed military members. Those with jobs, particularly if it is difficult for them to get a day off (such as non-union hourly workers, and those who don't work for the government because government employees typically get election day off). All those groups strongly favor Republicans.

So in the absence of cheating, mail-in votes should strongly favor Republicans.

(09-24-2024 10:45 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know it goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

Fewer mail in ballots reduces the likelihood of fraud---not just my opinion---a bipartisan election integrity committee led by Jimmy Carter came to that same conclusion. That said, voting by mail tends to increase total vote because it is appealing to low effort voters who would otherwise have a low propensity to vote.

Believe it or not, low propensity voters are skewing toward Trump. The Democrat party will now do better in midterms moving forward since they are more civic minded. The political realignment has been crazy over the last 2-3 cycles.

(09-24-2024 10:49 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 10:45 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know it goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

Fewer mail in ballots reduces the likelihood of fraud---not just my opinion---a bipartisan election integrity committee led by Jimmy Carter came to that same conclusion. That said, voting by mail tends to increase total vote because it is appealing to low effort voters who would otherwise have a low propensity to vote.

Believe it or not, low propensity voters are skewing toward Trump. The Democrat party will now do better in midterms moving forward since they are more civic minded. The political realignment has been crazy over the last 2-3 cycles.

Im not surprised at all. The voters who pay little attention to election cycles or the mainstream media election propaganda would no doubt prefer "change" over 4 more years of "Bidenomics". I actually dont think this election is going to be as close as some think. I think in the end----people vote their pocketbook. They know they are worse off after 4 years of Biden/Harris and they were much better off under the big bad scary Orange Man the media tells them they should fear. Deep down---A LOT of people who actually voted for Biden know the media lied to them in 2020---and they know the media is still lying to them today....

(09-24-2024 10:48 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Mail-in voting should favor Republicans.

Who votes mail-in? Those who are too sick or might become sick (elderly). Deployed military members. Those with jobs, particularly if it is difficult for them to get a day off (such as non-union hourly workers, and those who don't work for the government because government employees typically get election day off). All those groups strongly favor Republicans.

So in the absence of cheating, mail-in votes should strongly favor Republicans.

Bank your vote the first day of early voting.

Avoid any Election Day shenanigans (lines, printer breaks, run out of ballots, cyber attack, etc)...and allow the GOTV effort to skip you to focus on others.

Get others to do the same.

(09-24-2024 10:52 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 10:49 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 10:45 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-24-2024 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This likely has nothing to do with who anyone will vote for, but rather just showing that Republicans also now starting to like early voting. If more Republicans vote early, less will vote on election day.

I know it goes against the narrative, but a mail-in vote does not mean something fraudulent happened or that an additional vote is going to be cast.

Fewer mail in ballots reduces the likelihood of fraud---not just my opinion---a bipartisan election integrity committee led by Jimmy Carter came to that same conclusion. That said, voting by mail tends to increase total vote because it is appealing to low effort voters who would otherwise have a low propensity to vote.

Believe it or not, low propensity voters are skewing toward Trump. The Democrat party will now do better in midterms moving forward since they are more civic minded. The political realignment has been crazy over the last 2-3 cycles.

Im not surprised at all. The voters who pay little attention to election cycles or the mainstream media election propaganda would no doubt prefer "change" over 4 more years of "Bidenomics". I actually dont think this election is going to be as close as some think. I think in the end----people vote their pocketbook. They know they are worse off after 4 years of Biden/Harris and they were much better off under the big bad scary Orange Man the media tells them they should fear. Deep down---A LOT of people who actually voted for Biden know the media lied to them in 2020---and they know the media is still lying to them today....

All of the issues point to a GOP win. But they have to out execute the Democrats, who have much more cash and supportive party apparatus to ballot harvest and ground game.

(09-24-2024 10:38 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Yeah, who knows. But one thing is happening now, and that's Mark Robinson, who trump still supports.

Does he? Robinson wasn't allowed to talk at the Trump rally in NC last week. Seems to me he has turned his back.