I've been living under a rock last month or two so wasn't sure what they've decided. Haven't seen or heard any recent rumors of who might be joining or what have you so just thought I'd open back up this can of worms. Joining the MWC seems the easiest solution but if they could get the top MWC and/or AAC teams to join the PAC for a 10-12 team league that sounds like it could be a more attractive option if those teams will bite.

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Both.

Once all of the court cases resolve they are going to have a scheduling agreement.

I am hopeful the Pac2 will be Pac14 come the 2025 season.

I think they will wind up joining the MWC, although it might be under the PAC banner.

(12-03-2023 11:29 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  I think they will wind up joining the MWC, although it might be under the PAC banner.

Likely under the PAC-12 banner by 2026, unless after the next two years there's too much financial baggage that only a bankruptcy solves. And they still could end up with the PAC-12 name.

They join the MWC for the '26-27 season.

1. OSU/WSU will milk the CFP payments and NCAA basketball credits for 2024-25 and 2025-26, leaving the Pac-12 as a zombie conference with only two members, while playing a nominally independent schedule that is in reality a MWC schedule in Football and Basketball. They are paying the MWC $14M (a year?) to have this scheduling agreement. They are committed to this approach, keeping the Pac-12 name alive with two members, but no conference competitions. It's legal gymnastics to get the maximum money.

Note: other Olympic Sports will be handled individually, some will get NCAA Nationals access by competing in other conference meets (e.g., MPSF for Swimming and Diving, possibly Tennis will be associates in the MWC, etc.)

2. In 2025-26 they will join the Mountain West for the following reasons.
● The available money in the Pac-12 will be dramatically lower with the expiration of CFP contract and the expiration of over half the NCAA tournament credits.
● The hefty anti-poaching penalties in the scheduling agreements makes it too expensive for OSU/WSU to invite MWC schools to the Pac-12
● The MWC schools would lose their NCAA Tournament credits and be starting over at zero.
● The MWC will be negotiating a media contract extension with a bump up for the 2025-26 season through at least 2030-31 season with existing media partners CBS and FOX.

As a result the "merger" will consist of Oregon State and Washington State joining the Mountain West, bringing with them the naming rights of the Pac-12.

While it seems obvious today that the MWC would take the Pac-12 name and us it, I am not at all sure there will be a great desire to take on the name after two years of dormancy in 2025-26. The Cache won't be a strong and won't really be associated with the schools in the conference. Whether they change the name or not, it will be the MWC, with MWC infrastructure and continuity.

There will be a merger with the MWC under the PAC banner. Nevarez likely to be the commissioner. OSU doesn't have nearly as much leverage over the MWC as many on here believe. At some point they need to be in a conference and the MWC is the only one that makes sense. It will be interesting if there will be any form of exit fee or GOR in this new conference. Neither PAC school will want that nor will SDSU, Fresno, Boise and UNLV. Perhaps CSU and AFA as well.

How many games will OWSU be playing against the MWC both years of this scheduling agreement? Have they accepted an invite to the MWC following these two skeleton years? I presume there won't be a PAC at all and those two will operate as independents, maybe playing against each other? What about TV rights? Are they going to each go about getting independent deals the next two seasons similar to how UConn did in football after leaving the AAC? What about Olympic sports? Also a scheduling agreement for them or how's that supposed to work?

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Also wouldn't top MWC members be willing to join OSU/WSU and leave the fat from the bottom of the MWC? That seems mutually beneficial versus having a full merge or what have you.

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(12-03-2023 03:29 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  Also wouldn't top MWC members be willing to join OSU/WSU and leave the fat from the bottom of the MWC? That seems mutually beneficial versus having a full merge or what have you.

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A bunch of people are in denial, but yes. Western D1 schools love nothing more than kicking each other in the nuts.

Its a power struggle. They want to steal MWC teams and rebuild the Pac but the MWC has strength in numbers and is way more stable so its not a slam dunk they can pull it off.

Also doesn't today's committee show that there's no guarantee the MWC rebuild is the best of the rest?

Liberty played the worst schedule and got the GO5 bid.

Even if you shuffle the best of the AAC + MWC + P2 is the CFB actually going to treat them as the 5th best conference or just another Group of 5.

F around and have San Jose State steal a Group of 5 bid.

(12-03-2023 04:18 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 03:29 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  Also wouldn't top MWC members be willing to join OSU/WSU and leave the fat from the bottom of the MWC? That seems mutually beneficial versus having a full merge or what have you.

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A bunch of people are in denial, but yes. Western D1 schools love nothing more than kicking each other in the nuts.

The Southwest Conference just called, they want you to "hold their beers and watch this".

(12-03-2023 03:29 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  Also wouldn't top MWC members be willing to join OSU/WSU and leave the fat from the bottom of the MWC? That seems mutually beneficial versus having a full merge or what have you.

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First and foremost, I will say that I feel that a full merger will happen more than any other scenario and expect that to be announced after the 2025 season when THE MWC/PAC renegotiates their TV deal.

However the only reason I hope this happens is because it gives Montana and MSU a chance to get invited up to FBS. If the PAC2 was going to Convince ANY teams from the MWC to move they'd have to have $$, Markets and Brands could probably accomplish that:

-Add Boise, SDSU, Fresno, CSU, UNLV, SJSU (Bay Area Market) and Hawaii (New TZ, Football only so could pay a half share or less and get Gonzaga to offset and garuntees 8 Conference games).

-Remaining 5 MWC teams backfill with NMSU, UTEP and then add best FCS options possible:

Nevada, Wyoming, Air Force, Utah State, New Mexico, NMSU, UTEP, Montana, MSU, Idaho

-At this point I'd like to go with this to get to 12 teams:

NDSU + SDSU: Gives you known FCS powerhouses/giant slayers and add some more recognition to the Conference, also adds a new TZ for game times and more exposure.

Geographically, it wouldn't be a terrible Conference, vast majority of teams are in the Mountain TZ with 2 Pacific and 2 Central teams. If needed down the road could explore adding North and South Dakota as well to get to 14.

Call me a dreamer but I am still in the "maybe" club. Though still a G5 with OSU & WSU added I think the Pac/MWC largely controls the "Pac12 after dark" time slot. Not that important of a time slot but still fresh material to put on FS1/FS2 (currently) late on Saturday night (10E/7P). Also, don't forget of the likelihood of the need for UCLA/USC/UO/UW and STAN/CAL wanting to play some games some G5 teams close to home which in the past they have at min done a 2 home/1 away split (a lot of the "Pac12 after dark games at the beginning of the season).

That current $230M contract with CBS/Fox which runs through 2025/26 might be seriously underrated. And how interested would ESPN be if instead many left the MWC for the Pac12? Keep in mind the bones for a sports channel to be managed by Fox/ESPN/some other group is still currently with the conference.

The dreaming part....an OSU/WSU with about $250-300M in Pac12 assets could likely forgo payment from the current Big12 deal. Might it be advantageous to get out ahead of and prevent a dilution of funds on the next contract with "pay for play" and other money drains coming down the line?

(12-03-2023 11:18 AM)EOU93 Wrote:  I am hopeful the Pac2 will be Pac14 come the 2025 season.

2025 if they can keep the MWC TV contracts in the merger and get rid of the Boise exception. More realistically 2026 with a new TV deal of slightly more than the American is getting.

(12-03-2023 04:26 PM)darkdragon99 Wrote:  Its a power struggle. They want to steal MWC teams and rebuild the Pac but the MWC has strength in numbers and is way more stable so its not a slam dunk they can pull it off.

But getting rid of the Boise exception in this scenario would make it a win for all schools not named Boise State. With a merger, that will be gone.

(12-04-2023 05:47 AM)whittx Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 04:26 PM)darkdragon99 Wrote:  Its a power struggle. They want to steal MWC teams and rebuild the Pac but the MWC has strength in numbers and is way more stable so its not a slam dunk they can pull it off.

But getting rid of the Boise exception in this scenario would make it a win for all schools not named Boise State. With a merger, that will be gone.

whats the boise exception?

(12-03-2023 02:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  They join the MWC for the '26-27 season.

1. OSU/WSU will milk the CFP payments and NCAA basketball credits for 2024-25 and 2025-26, leaving the Pac-12 as a zombie conference with only two members, while playing a nominally independent schedule that is in reality a MWC schedule in Football and Basketball. They are paying the MWC $14M (a year?) to have this scheduling agreement. They are committed to this approach, keeping the Pac-12 name alive with two members, but no conference competitions. It's legal gymnastics to get the maximum money.

Note: other Olympic Sports will be handled individually, some will get NCAA Nationals access by competing in other conference meets (e.g., MPSF for Swimming and Diving, possibly Tennis will be associates in the MWC, etc.)

2. In 2025-26 they will join the Mountain West for the following reasons.
● The available money in the Pac-12 will be dramatically lower with the expiration of CFP contract and the expiration of over half the NCAA tournament credits.
● The hefty anti-poaching penalties in the scheduling agreements makes it too expensive for OSU/WSU to invite MWC schools to the Pac-12
● The MWC schools would lose their NCAA Tournament credits and be starting over at zero.
● The MWC will be negotiating a media contract extension with a bump up for the 2025-26 season through at least 2030-31 season with existing media partners CBS and FOX.

As a result the "merger" will consist of Oregon State and Washington State joining the Mountain West, bringing with them the naming rights of the Pac-12.

While it seems obvious today that the MWC would take the Pac-12 name and us it, I am not at all sure there will be a great desire to take on the name after two years of dormancy in 2025-26. The Cache won't be a strong and won't really be associated with the schools in the conference. Whether they change the name or not, it will be the MWC, with MWC infrastructure and continuity.

This seems like a reasonable and accurate prediction. Well done, Stu.

(12-03-2023 04:35 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  Also doesn't today's committee show that there's no guarantee the MWC rebuild is the best of the rest?

Liberty played the worst schedule and got the GO5 bid.

Even if you shuffle the best of the AAC + MWC + P2 is the CFB actually going to treat them as the 5th best conference or just another Group of 5.

F around and have San Jose State steal a Group of 5 bid.

It is a good point but I suspect the “best of the rest” idea is primarily for TV money not the CFP lottery.