(09-01-2023 11:34 AM)Claw Wrote:  Anything below 4%, maybe 5%, is traditionally considered full employment.

I don't think this number alone means anything. The fact we had a small uptick in the summer when there is traditionally more seasonal employment is a little concerning, but still not a big deal. The other factors show movement in the economy.

This unemployment number indicates nothing. It's within random variation within the range of full employement.

It doesnt. But placed into context regarding a downward revision in 2nd quarter GDP, steadily declining Gross Domestic Income, declining manufacturing order growth, increasing credit card/auto loan delinquency, increasing bank use of Fed emergency liquidity measures, and the potentially massive Chinese credit issues---it paints a picture where further tightening may not be advisable. Lets remember that credit tightening cycles generally take a year to even start to really have any measurable affect on economic conditions. This was the fastest tightening cycle of this size ever in the history of the Fed---and we are only feeling roughly about a 30-50% the current cycles tightening effects right now----with at least 50% or more of its effects still to come.

Quote:Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, is also increasingly optimistic the Federal Reserve may soon be done raising interest rates as inflation remains relatively low and the labor market cools.

“We view Chair [Jerome] Powell’s promise at Jackson Hole to ‘proceed carefully’ as a signal that a September hike is off the table and the hurdle for a November hike is significant,” Hatzius wrote, noting the hurdles for future hikes would also likely rise.

WHERE HAVE I HEARD THIS SONG BEFORE

(09-01-2023 01:06 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 12:27 PM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 11:49 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 11:20 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 10:37 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Interesting, thanks for the info. Supply is still very limited around me. I have a new neighbor that just purchased their home down the street and he said final price was $90K over asking price.

Supply is tight in the NE too. Houses are still selling at 40%-60% higher that the start of 2022. Even sh*tholes needing new utilities are going for $300k+

Thus the reason for a crash. We are way overdue.

Maybe, but I don't see a crash anytime soon, imo. There isn't the 2008 elements this time around. It seems to simply be a supply/demand issue that was driven primarily by WFH and historically low rates. We are going to see a heck of a lot more people renting, that's for sure. Those low rates will keep people from buying new homes, but those new homes aren't being built right now.

While I agree we wont see anything close to 2008.....

a lot of the economy is based off things that goes into those new homes NOT being built and not just the jobs. But like your area a ton of apartments are being built in this area. That's going to take maybe 75% of those renters out of the buying market. It's just too difficult to save money with outrageous rent prices along with first and last and deposit (thats hardly ever returned) and with the cost increases across the board.

I think where the disagreement in this thread is coming from is due to where everyone lives. Larger cities are still seeing high(er) prices because you have more people/money. And the homes being talked about are close to the same footage but at different levels when it comes to prices compared to smaller markers.

Here in a city of 55k and county of 110k houses that are selling at 130 to 150k would be 300+k in your market. Those 150k homes around here go quickly because there's competition between the family buyer and those investing on rental income.

The next level homes are sitting longer and prices are coming down...250k in my area or 450k in your area. I've seen a lot more on the market that have a reduced price.

So its going to be hard to predict anything for the nation on housing as far as a bust till other signs start to fall in place. Namely the job market starting to tighten up and the lost of middle class jobs.

Even those that bought at low interest rates are close to those that are now buying at higher rates. The first one bought more house which added more cost and the other bought at a lot higher rate. Add in the cost increases across the board....

most people can not afford to be without a job long or without both people bring in that check. Till that happens we won't see a nation wide crash but if it does and a correction doesn't take place in 3 to 6 months. Its going to crash.....

a lot of people will lose their homes and a lot of people will generate life changing wealth. I'm still sitting on the cash from the sell of 3/4 of our rental homes over the last 18 to 24 months

I agree there are a lot of "what ifs". My parents are in a small town in eastern NC, about 50K, and homes aren't really even going on the market. They are being sold before even hitting the market. Well, at least the more desirable homes.

Imagine f you add all the illegals to the roles of unemployed? There are a lot more than the 3.8% reported. And most of them want to work too.

Whoa... better hold off on that Mt. Rushmore addition.

(09-01-2023 10:37 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 09:21 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 09:01 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:16 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:05 AM)mlb Wrote:  That may slow down these interest rate increases at least...

Nope. Bankers are expecting increases in two weeks. And when they "correct" it in a couple if weeks it will jump to 3.9. This winter is when the housing crash begins. Will be an oversupply of new homes at the same time foreclosures start showing up in the same subdivisions due to buyers not spending any money at closing.

Oversupply of new homes, where are you seeing this? The inventory is extremely low in my neck of the woods. In fact, not many are even being built, all I see going up are apartment/condo complexes.

MS Gulf Coast. New construction is all that is selling with some rental homes going on the market due to the large increase in insurance prices. You'd be a fool to sell your 3% loan for a 7% loan. People are turning down job transfers with a raise due to the difference.

Interesting, thanks for the info. Supply is still very limited around me. I have a new neighbor that just purchased their home down the street and he said final price was $90K over asking price.

It’s the same in NC. The US under built homes for a decade. The largest demographic in the country is now in prime home buying years.