https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1697588541306360039

KRIS KROSS

just like when the housing market collapse was preceded by ‘cooking the books’ or today’s actual inflation rate, this number is utter bs…

#anotherWTFEsnapshot

That may slow down these interest rate increases at least...

(09-01-2023 08:05 AM)mlb Wrote:  That may slow down these interest rate increases at least...

Nope. Bankers are expecting increases in two weeks. And when they "correct" it in a couple if weeks it will jump to 3.9. This winter is when the housing crash begins. Will be an oversupply of new homes at the same time foreclosures start showing up in the same subdivisions due to buyers not spending any money at closing.

(09-01-2023 08:16 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:05 AM)mlb Wrote:  That may slow down these interest rate increases at least...

Nope. Bankers are expecting increases rate pause in two weeks. And when they "correct" it in a couple if weeks it will jump to 3.9. This winter is when the housing crash begins. Will be an oversupply of new homes at the same time foreclosures start showing up in the same subdivisions due to buyers not spending any money at closing.

FED FUND FUTURES

Where is Tommy Boy? He was all over this when it was favorable for his political party. Clown show at best. Anyone dealing with this inflation telling you this a good economy simply can’t balance a checkbook.

(09-01-2023 08:16 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:05 AM)mlb Wrote:  That may slow down these interest rate increases at least...

Nope. Bankers are expecting increases in two weeks. And when they "correct" it in a couple if weeks it will jump to 3.9. This winter is when the housing crash begins. Will be an oversupply of new homes at the same time foreclosures start showing up in the same subdivisions due to buyers not spending any money at closing.

I believe there will be one more 25BP bump this month, then it will be over, the reason being that the inflation figure is going to inch up a bit for August and that will not sit well with Powell.

(09-01-2023 08:48 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:16 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:05 AM)mlb Wrote:  That may slow down these interest rate increases at least...

Nope. Bankers are expecting increases in two weeks. And when they "correct" it in a couple if weeks it will jump to 3.9. This winter is when the housing crash begins. Will be an oversupply of new homes at the same time foreclosures start showing up in the same subdivisions due to buyers not spending any money at closing.

I believe there will be one more 25BP bump this month November, then it will be over, the reason being that the inflation figure is going to inch up a bit for August and that will not sit well with Powell.

THE LONG & WINDING ROAD

(09-01-2023 08:16 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:05 AM)mlb Wrote:  That may slow down these interest rate increases at least...

Nope. Bankers are expecting increases in two weeks. And when they "correct" it in a couple if weeks it will jump to 3.9. This winter is when the housing crash begins. Will be an oversupply of new homes at the same time foreclosures start showing up in the same subdivisions due to buyers not spending any money at closing.

Oversupply of new homes, where are you seeing this? The inventory is extremely low in my neck of the woods. In fact, not many are even being built, all I see going up are apartment/condo complexes.

(09-01-2023 09:01 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:16 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:05 AM)mlb Wrote:  That may slow down these interest rate increases at least...

Nope. Bankers are expecting increases in two weeks. And when they "correct" it in a couple if weeks it will jump to 3.9. This winter is when the housing crash begins. Will be an oversupply of new homes at the same time foreclosures start showing up in the same subdivisions due to buyers not spending any money at closing.

Oversupply of new homes, where are you seeing this? The inventory is extremely low in my neck of the woods. In fact, not many are even being built, all I see going up are apartment/condo complexes.

MS Gulf Coast. New construction is all that is selling with some rental homes going on the market due to the large increase in insurance prices. You'd be a fool to sell your 3% loan for a 7% loan. People are turning down job transfers with a raise due to the difference.

(09-01-2023 08:48 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:16 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:05 AM)mlb Wrote:  That may slow down these interest rate increases at least...

Nope. Bankers are expecting increases in two weeks. And when they "correct" it in a couple if weeks it will jump to 3.9. This winter is when the housing crash begins. Will be an oversupply of new homes at the same time foreclosures start showing up in the same subdivisions due to buyers not spending any money at closing.

I believe there will be one more 25BP bump this month, then it will be over, the reason being that the inflation figure is going to inch up a bit for August and that will not sit well with Powell.

The jump in fuel prices during August increased prices.

(09-01-2023 09:21 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 09:01 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:16 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:05 AM)mlb Wrote:  That may slow down these interest rate increases at least...

Nope. Bankers are expecting increases in two weeks. And when they "correct" it in a couple if weeks it will jump to 3.9. This winter is when the housing crash begins. Will be an oversupply of new homes at the same time foreclosures start showing up in the same subdivisions due to buyers not spending any money at closing.

Oversupply of new homes, where are you seeing this? The inventory is extremely low in my neck of the woods. In fact, not many are even being built, all I see going up are apartment/condo complexes.

MS Gulf Coast. New construction is all that is selling with some rental homes going on the market due to the large increase in insurance prices. You'd be a fool to sell your 3% loan for a 7% loan. People are turning down job transfers with a raise due to the difference.

Interesting, thanks for the info. Supply is still very limited around me. I have a new neighbor that just purchased their home down the street and he said final price was $90K over asking price.

(09-01-2023 10:37 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 09:21 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 09:01 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:16 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:05 AM)mlb Wrote:  That may slow down these interest rate increases at least...

Nope. Bankers are expecting increases in two weeks. And when they "correct" it in a couple if weeks it will jump to 3.9. This winter is when the housing crash begins. Will be an oversupply of new homes at the same time foreclosures start showing up in the same subdivisions due to buyers not spending any money at closing.

Oversupply of new homes, where are you seeing this? The inventory is extremely low in my neck of the woods. In fact, not many are even being built, all I see going up are apartment/condo complexes.

MS Gulf Coast. New construction is all that is selling with some rental homes going on the market due to the large increase in insurance prices. You'd be a fool to sell your 3% loan for a 7% loan. People are turning down job transfers with a raise due to the difference.

Interesting, thanks for the info. Supply is still very limited around me. I have a new neighbor that just purchased their home down the street and he said final price was $90K over asking price.

Supply is tight in the NE too. Houses are still selling at 40%-60% higher that the start of 2022. Even sh*tholes needing new utilities are going for $300k+

(09-01-2023 09:21 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  You'd be a fool to sell your 3% loan for a 7% loan.

This.

Was pondering selling and downsizing. Ran numbers. Would end up with far less house and location for same money.

If employer wants you to move tell them they finance the same mortgage rate you have now plus moving expenses ... and a performance + inflation based raise for three years. And get it in writing.

Anything below 4%, maybe 5%, is traditionally considered full employment.

I don't think this number alone means anything. The fact we had a small uptick in the summer when there is traditionally more seasonal employment is a little concerning, but still not a big deal. The other factors show movement in the economy.

This unemployment number indicates nothing. It's within random variation within the range of full employement.

(09-01-2023 11:34 AM)Claw Wrote:  Anything below 4%, maybe 5%, is traditionally considered full employment.

I don't think this number alone means anything. The fact we had a small uptick in the summer when there is traditionally more seasonal employment is a little concerning, but still not a big deal. The other factors show movement in the economy.

This unemployment number indicates nothing. It's within random variation within the range of full employement.

June and July numbers were also "adjusted" down within the report.

(09-01-2023 11:20 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 10:37 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 09:21 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 09:01 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 08:16 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Nope. Bankers are expecting increases in two weeks. And when they "correct" it in a couple if weeks it will jump to 3.9. This winter is when the housing crash begins. Will be an oversupply of new homes at the same time foreclosures start showing up in the same subdivisions due to buyers not spending any money at closing.

Oversupply of new homes, where are you seeing this? The inventory is extremely low in my neck of the woods. In fact, not many are even being built, all I see going up are apartment/condo complexes.

MS Gulf Coast. New construction is all that is selling with some rental homes going on the market due to the large increase in insurance prices. You'd be a fool to sell your 3% loan for a 7% loan. People are turning down job transfers with a raise due to the difference.

Interesting, thanks for the info. Supply is still very limited around me. I have a new neighbor that just purchased their home down the street and he said final price was $90K over asking price.

Supply is tight in the NE too. Houses are still selling at 40%-60% higher that the start of 2022. Even sh*tholes needing new utilities are going for $300k+

Thus the reason for a crash. We are way overdue.

(09-01-2023 11:49 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 11:20 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 10:37 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 09:21 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 09:01 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Oversupply of new homes, where are you seeing this? The inventory is extremely low in my neck of the woods. In fact, not many are even being built, all I see going up are apartment/condo complexes.

MS Gulf Coast. New construction is all that is selling with some rental homes going on the market due to the large increase in insurance prices. You'd be a fool to sell your 3% loan for a 7% loan. People are turning down job transfers with a raise due to the difference.

Interesting, thanks for the info. Supply is still very limited around me. I have a new neighbor that just purchased their home down the street and he said final price was $90K over asking price.

Supply is tight in the NE too. Houses are still selling at 40%-60% higher that the start of 2022. Even sh*tholes needing new utilities are going for $300k+

Thus the reason for a crash. We are way overdue.

Maybe, but I don't see a crash anytime soon, imo. There isn't the 2008 elements this time around. It seems to simply be a supply/demand issue that was driven primarily by WFH and historically low rates. We are going to see a heck of a lot more people renting, that's for sure. Those low rates will keep people from buying new homes, but those new homes aren't being built right now.

We have two builders competing to see who can build the most homes the fastest. Some in the same subdivisions. Both have their own mortgage companies. Paying all of the closing costs and pre-paids and giving away free appliances and blinds. And there are multiple new developments being cut.

(09-01-2023 12:27 PM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 11:49 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 11:20 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 10:37 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 09:21 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  MS Gulf Coast. New construction is all that is selling with some rental homes going on the market due to the large increase in insurance prices. You'd be a fool to sell your 3% loan for a 7% loan. People are turning down job transfers with a raise due to the difference.

Interesting, thanks for the info. Supply is still very limited around me. I have a new neighbor that just purchased their home down the street and he said final price was $90K over asking price.

Supply is tight in the NE too. Houses are still selling at 40%-60% higher that the start of 2022. Even sh*tholes needing new utilities are going for $300k+

Thus the reason for a crash. We are way overdue.

Maybe, but I don't see a crash anytime soon, imo. There isn't the 2008 elements this time around. It seems to simply be a supply/demand issue that was driven primarily by WFH and historically low rates. We are going to see a heck of a lot more people renting, that's for sure. Those low rates will keep people from buying new homes, but those new homes aren't being built right now.

While I agree we wont see anything close to 2008.....

a lot of the economy is based off things that goes into those new homes NOT being built and not just the jobs. But like your area a ton of apartments are being built in this area. That's going to take maybe 75% of those renters out of the buying market. It's just too difficult to save money with outrageous rent prices along with first and last and deposit (thats hardly ever returned) and with the cost increases across the board.

I think where the disagreement in this thread is coming from is due to where everyone lives. Larger cities are still seeing high(er) prices because you have more people/money. And the homes being talked about are close to the same footage but at different levels when it comes to prices compared to smaller markers.

Here in a city of 55k and county of 110k houses that are selling at 130 to 150k would be 300+k in your market. Those 150k homes around here go quickly because there's competition between the family buyer and those investing on rental income.

The next level homes are sitting longer and prices are coming down...250k in my area or 450k in your area. I've seen a lot more on the market that have a reduced price.

So its going to be hard to predict anything for the nation on housing as far as a bust till other signs start to fall in place. Namely the job market starting to tighten up and the lost of middle class jobs.

Even those that bought at low interest rates are close to those that are now buying at higher rates. The first one bought more house which added more cost and the other bought at a lot higher rate. Add in the cost increases across the board....

most people can not afford to be without a job long or without both people bring in that check. Till that happens we won't see a nation wide crash but if it does and a correction doesn't take place in 3 to 6 months. Its going to crash.....

a lot of people will lose their homes and a lot of people will generate life changing wealth. I'm still sitting on the cash from the sell of 3/4 of our rental homes over the last 18 to 24 months