No conference is going to get bigger than what they are now without some form of relegation.

Just look at the addition of Washington and Oregon to the B1G (reduced rate).
Cincinnati is receiving less than the Arizona schools in the Big 12 expansion, perhaps Houston, BYU and UCF too.

Any school in the existing SEC that would vote for uneven revenue sharing in that league would eventually be taking money out of Vanderbilt's pocket as well as robbing the Mississippi schools too.

The idea that ESPN would pay 8 ACC schools the current SEC rate, while guaranteeing the other 6 the current ACC rate plus normal increases is just hard to believe or understand from a business prospective.

The fact that Disney may be trying to unload ESPN makes one wonder why the current management would be taking on long term obligations that may not be the direction the new owners would want to take.

Strange times with increased risks no matter what direction anyone chooses to go in.

(08-20-2023 11:53 AM)XLance Wrote:  No conference is going to get bigger than what they are now without some form of relegation.

Just look at the addition of Washington and Oregon to the B1G (reduced rate).
Cincinnati is receiving less than the Arizona schools in the Big 12 expansion, perhaps Houston, BYU and UCF too.

Any school in the existing SEC that would vote for uneven revenue sharing in that league would eventually be taking money out of Vanderbilt's pocket as well as robbing the Mississippi schools too.

The idea that ESPN would pay 8 ACC schools the current SEC rate, while guaranteeing the other 6 the current ACC rate plus normal increases is just hard to believe or understand from a business prospective.

The fact that Disney may be trying to unload ESPN makes one wonder why the current management would be taking on long term obligations that may not be the direction the new owners would want to take.

Strange times with increased risks no matter what direction anyone chooses to go in.

Live sports is the only TV programming which is paying the bills. The super conferences will be as large as the inventory requirements of the networks and they aren't paying more during consolidation, they will be paying fewer more than the few made previously, but they will be paying what was once the whole P5/G5 a lot less as a group.

(08-20-2023 11:53 AM)XLance Wrote:  No conference is going to get bigger than what they are now without some form of relegation.

Cincinnati is receiving less than the Arizona schools in the Big 12 expansion, perhaps Houston, BYU and UCF too.

The idea that ESPN would pay 8 ACC schools the current SEC rate, while guaranteeing the other 6 the current ACC rate plus normal increases is just hard to believe or understand from a business prospective.

The Big 12 will have equal revenue sharing on the new deal.


ESPN has committed to pay a certain total amount to 30 schools in SEC and ACC. If it can restructure the conferences in a manner that enhances the value of the games, only at the cost of losing ACC HQ, it will. The alternative for several is a step-change relegation come 2036.

Would Oregon St have given up revenue over the last 10 years in order to have the BIG add all PAC? Most likely

(08-13-2023 07:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The additional cost is in the per school SEC pro rata of the new media pay out: 7 x 35 = 245 million
Cost of moving 2 to the Big 10: -40 x 2 = -80 million
Cost of moving 5 teams to the Big 12: -20 x 5 = -100 million (plus exit fees)
Total cost of all moves for ESPN: +65 million.

ESPN loses the overhead of the ACCN and duplicated personalities and facilities. Saves 100 million.

ESPN converts the LHN into the B12N and can do so easily because they have all of the T3 rights to the Big 12. They do this if it can be profitable.

ESPN makes about 10 million more per game from the Content of just FSU and Clemson vs a SEC schedule. If the SEC moves to 10 conference games that's 200 million more and that doesn't count what Virginia Tech and Miami might make.

The 9 schools moving to the SEC and Big 10 pay their $120 million exit fee only.

Remember ESPN controls damages by placement of other schools and the collection and distribution of exit fees to those who may be left out, and to those headed to the Big 12 where they will make 8 million less than in the ACC, but each of the 5 schools not making the SEC or Big 10 would split 1.08 billion NETTING each of the 5 schools 216 million dollars each, more twice enough to cover the 96 million each would have made getting paid the ACC contracted amount through 2036.


To the SEC: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech. Those 7 represent 59.4% of the total value of the ACC. Just FSU and Clemson are 24.7% of that. Those 7 sew up the Deep South making it all SEC and all ESPN.

To the Big 10: Duke, Virginia
To the Big 12: Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, possibly Wake Forest

Notre Dame is on its own to decide their own future.

SEC picks up Kansas for #8.

Big 10 picks up California and Stanford (reduced rates)

Notre Dame as a partial to each of the Big 10, SEC, Big 12. They play 4 Big 10, 4 SEC games, and 2 Big 12 games a season.

Why do 7 go to the SEC? ESPN holds those rights in the ACC and the same rights in the SEC. If they want to keep 7 ACC schools this is the cost of it.

This is a deal which improves the position of 9 schools, gives up to 5 more full access to the upper tier postseasons, and should any be left out rewards them handsomely for the inconvenience.

This is the way you structure a deal which earns ESPN more money from the product they hold now, promotes 9 of the 15 schools. Gives Notre Dame the freedom to do what is best for them in a changing environment, and keeps at least 3, maybe all 5 other schools in the upper tier and pays them for their trouble.

It puts the Big 10 into Virginia and North Carolina.

It permits the SEC to control its region which is what it wants.

It strengthens the Big 12 in markets and reach and maybe in T3 value.

It's a win, win, win, from a potentially rotten situation.

I think you reverse Big XII and SEC here for Notre Dame. Notre Dame will be looking for a home for basketball and olympic sports, and the Big XII is the only one of the three that would take them without football. On the other hand, you could keep this arrangement if Notre Dame winds up placing those sports in the Big East. But a partial payout from the Big XII likely would be more money than a full payout from the Big East.

I'm also less confident than you that the Big XII would have any interest in BC. Yes, the Boston media market is a decent size, but it's a pro sports market first, second, third and fourth. The Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics and Bruins all will draw more interest than BC athletics. I think there are a number of G5 programs that may draw more interest from the Big XII than BC, and possibly Wake Forest, will. I'm thinking of UConn and South Florida (the latter is a natural travel partner for UCF) and possibly Memphis and/or Tulane.

I don't think the Big XII wants ND as a member, without full FB, anymore -- that was UT's attempt but the ACC gave a better deal.

The Big East is the logical and theological, post-ACC option for ND. Full FB independence. The Big XII would then gleefully do an OOC scheduling agreement in FB, M/WBB, and some other sports.

(09-12-2023 10:49 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  I don't think the Big XII wants ND as a member, without full FB, anymore -- that was UT's attempt but the ACC gave a better deal.

The Big East is the logical and theological, post-ACC option for ND. Full FB independence. The Big XII would then gleefully do an OOC scheduling agreement in FB, M/WBB, and some other sports.

If that happens, it's likely due to "stuff" happening in the ACC.

And in that case, I could see them taking BC along as their "invitee partner"

(09-12-2023 12:30 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 10:49 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  I don't think the Big XII wants ND as a member, without full FB, anymore -- that was UT's attempt but the ACC gave a better deal.

The Big East is the logical and theological, post-ACC option for ND. Full FB independence. The Big XII would then gleefully do an OOC scheduling agreement in FB, M/WBB, and some other sports.

If that happens, it's likely due to "stuff" happening in the ACC.

And in that case, I could see them taking BC along as their "invitee partner"

The OP presumed the collapse of the ACC, at least as I read it. In that event, ND is in the market for a new conference for basketball and olympic sports. I think the Big XII is definitely interested in ND for basketball and olympic sports in that event, if for no other reason than they would get the opportunity for additional football games against ND. Also, ND makes a good addition for some olympic sports the Big XII might add in that event, most notably men's soccer and men's lacrosse.

Yeah, the Big XII would add BC if ND insisted upon it. But at least among the ND fanbase, there would be little to no interest in that. BC may consider ND to be their rival, but no one associated with ND will ever consider BC to be their rival. There's grumbling among ND's fanbase that the all-time record against BC isn't comparable to the all-time record against Navy. Granted, ND's administration doesn't always act in the same manner that ND's fanbase would wish it did, but I think Yormark would be more interested in a non-football wing that included Gonzaga, Georgetown and Villanova along with ND than adding BC.

(09-12-2023 12:57 PM)tf8693 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 12:30 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 10:49 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  I don't think the Big XII wants ND as a member, without full FB, anymore -- that was UT's attempt but the ACC gave a better deal.

The Big East is the logical and theological, post-ACC option for ND. Full FB independence. The Big XII would then gleefully do an OOC scheduling agreement in FB, M/WBB, and some other sports.

If that happens, it's likely due to "stuff" happening in the ACC.

And in that case, I could see them taking BC along as their "invitee partner"

The OP presumed the collapse of the ACC, at least as I read it. In that event, ND is in the market for a new conference for basketball and olympic sports. I think the Big XII is definitely interested in ND for basketball and olympic sports in that event, if for no other reason than they would get the opportunity for additional football games against ND. Also, ND makes a good addition for some olympic sports the Big XII might add in that event, most notably men's soccer and men's lacrosse.

Yeah, the Big XII would add BC if ND insisted upon it. But at least among the ND fanbase, there would be little to no interest in that. BC may consider ND to be their rival, but no one associated with ND will ever consider BC to be their rival. There's grumbling among ND's fanbase that the all-time record against BC isn't comparable to the all-time record against Navy. Granted, ND's administration doesn't always act in the same manner that ND's fanbase would wish it did, but I think Yormark would be more interested in a non-football wing that included Gonzaga, Georgetown and Villanova along with ND than adding BC.

Oh sorry, I meant to the BigEast. I should have clarified.

I think Pitt, Louisville, and maybe Syracuse, make the trip to the Big12. And if so, ND could go along with those.

But before that happens, I think the Big12 likely loses a few schools.

There's also the option that ND just forms a new conference and picks who they want to join. Oh wait, that's what the current ACC is turning into... Nevermind : )

(09-12-2023 02:17 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 12:57 PM)tf8693 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 12:30 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 10:49 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  I don't think the Big XII wants ND as a member, without full FB, anymore -- that was UT's attempt but the ACC gave a better deal.

The Big East is the logical and theological, post-ACC option for ND. Full FB independence. The Big XII would then gleefully do an OOC scheduling agreement in FB, M/WBB, and some other sports.

If that happens, it's likely due to "stuff" happening in the ACC.

And in that case, I could see them taking BC along as their "invitee partner"

The OP presumed the collapse of the ACC, at least as I read it. In that event, ND is in the market for a new conference for basketball and olympic sports. I think the Big XII is definitely interested in ND for basketball and olympic sports in that event, if for no other reason than they would get the opportunity for additional football games against ND. Also, ND makes a good addition for some olympic sports the Big XII might add in that event, most notably men's soccer and men's lacrosse.

Yeah, the Big XII would add BC if ND insisted upon it. But at least among the ND fanbase, there would be little to no interest in that. BC may consider ND to be their rival, but no one associated with ND will ever consider BC to be their rival. There's grumbling among ND's fanbase that the all-time record against BC isn't comparable to the all-time record against Navy. Granted, ND's administration doesn't always act in the same manner that ND's fanbase would wish it did, but I think Yormark would be more interested in a non-football wing that included Gonzaga, Georgetown and Villanova along with ND than adding BC.

Oh sorry, I meant to the BigEast. I should have clarified.

I think Pitt, Louisville, and maybe Syracuse, make the trip to the Big12. And if so, ND could go along with those.

But before that happens, I think the Big12 likely loses a few schools.

There's also the option that ND just forms a new conference and picks who they want to join. Oh wait, that's what the current ACC is turning into... Nevermind : )

Who would the XII lose? AZ? AZST? CO? KS? UT? Someone else?

(09-13-2023 01:00 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 02:17 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 12:57 PM)tf8693 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 12:30 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 10:49 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  I don't think the Big XII wants ND as a member, without full FB, anymore -- that was UT's attempt but the ACC gave a better deal.

The Big East is the logical and theological, post-ACC option for ND. Full FB independence. The Big XII would then gleefully do an OOC scheduling agreement in FB, M/WBB, and some other sports.

If that happens, it's likely due to "stuff" happening in the ACC.

And in that case, I could see them taking BC along as their "invitee partner"

The OP presumed the collapse of the ACC, at least as I read it. In that event, ND is in the market for a new conference for basketball and olympic sports. I think the Big XII is definitely interested in ND for basketball and olympic sports in that event, if for no other reason than they would get the opportunity for additional football games against ND. Also, ND makes a good addition for some olympic sports the Big XII might add in that event, most notably men's soccer and men's lacrosse.

Yeah, the Big XII would add BC if ND insisted upon it. But at least among the ND fanbase, there would be little to no interest in that. BC may consider ND to be their rival, but no one associated with ND will ever consider BC to be their rival. There's grumbling among ND's fanbase that the all-time record against BC isn't comparable to the all-time record against Navy. Granted, ND's administration doesn't always act in the same manner that ND's fanbase would wish it did, but I think Yormark would be more interested in a non-football wing that included Gonzaga, Georgetown and Villanova along with ND than adding BC.

Oh sorry, I meant to the BigEast. I should have clarified.

I think Pitt, Louisville, and maybe Syracuse, make the trip to the Big12. And if so, ND could go along with those.

But before that happens, I think the Big12 likely loses a few schools.

There's also the option that ND just forms a new conference and picks who they want to join. Oh wait, that's what the current ACC is turning into... Nevermind : )

Who would the XII lose? AZ? AZST? CO? KS? UT? Someone else?

lose - by P2 poaching...

For the Big10, any of the 4Cs and Kansas, are the most likely, due to AAU, etc.

For the SEC, Kansas, another TX school, and/or possibly others.

(09-13-2023 06:22 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 01:00 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 02:17 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 12:57 PM)tf8693 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 12:30 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  If that happens, it's likely due to "stuff" happening in the ACC.

And in that case, I could see them taking BC along as their "invitee partner"

The OP presumed the collapse of the ACC, at least as I read it. In that event, ND is in the market for a new conference for basketball and olympic sports. I think the Big XII is definitely interested in ND for basketball and olympic sports in that event, if for no other reason than they would get the opportunity for additional football games against ND. Also, ND makes a good addition for some olympic sports the Big XII might add in that event, most notably men's soccer and men's lacrosse.

Yeah, the Big XII would add BC if ND insisted upon it. But at least among the ND fanbase, there would be little to no interest in that. BC may consider ND to be their rival, but no one associated with ND will ever consider BC to be their rival. There's grumbling among ND's fanbase that the all-time record against BC isn't comparable to the all-time record against Navy. Granted, ND's administration doesn't always act in the same manner that ND's fanbase would wish it did, but I think Yormark would be more interested in a non-football wing that included Gonzaga, Georgetown and Villanova along with ND than adding BC.

Oh sorry, I meant to the BigEast. I should have clarified.

I think Pitt, Louisville, and maybe Syracuse, make the trip to the Big12. And if so, ND could go along with those.

But before that happens, I think the Big12 likely loses a few schools.

There's also the option that ND just forms a new conference and picks who they want to join. Oh wait, that's what the current ACC is turning into... Nevermind : )

Who would the XII lose? AZ? AZST? CO? KS? UT? Someone else?

lose - by P2 poaching...

For the Big10, any of the 4Cs and Kansas, are the most likely, due to AAU, etc.

For the SEC, Kansas, another TX school, and/or possibly others.

If 24 is the goal is either the SEC or B1G sweep the jewels of the ACC, then I could see Kansas or the 4C being considered. Otherwise, I'm not so sure.

Let's say the B1G grabbed Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Stanford, and Virginia for 24. The SEC would take Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech, and...? If they want 24, I'm not sure who would suffice. Would the SEC go for Colorado, Kansas, Utah, plus an Arizona school? Would the SEC consider Louisville or Duke? What about a non-power school like Tulane in the heart of SEC-country? I'm just not sure what the SEC would do IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.

Let's say the SEC went to 24 with Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia. Would the B1G be able to get Notre Dame? They would likely take California and Stanford. What about Virginia Tech and North Carolina St? Or Pittsburgh or Syracuse? Or even the 4C? I'm not sure who the B1G would consider in the scenario IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.

The most likely race to 24, in my mind, involves the conferences splitting the top of the ACC.
SEC adds Clemson, Colorado, Florida St, Kansas, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.
B1G adds California, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, and Stanford.

XII (14) swallows the ACC (6) and adds 4 of Memphis, Oregon St, San Diego St, South Florida, Tulane, and Washington St.

(09-13-2023 09:45 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 06:22 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 01:00 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 02:17 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 12:57 PM)tf8693 Wrote:  The OP presumed the collapse of the ACC, at least as I read it. In that event, ND is in the market for a new conference for basketball and olympic sports. I think the Big XII is definitely interested in ND for basketball and olympic sports in that event, if for no other reason than they would get the opportunity for additional football games against ND. Also, ND makes a good addition for some olympic sports the Big XII might add in that event, most notably men's soccer and men's lacrosse.

Yeah, the Big XII would add BC if ND insisted upon it. But at least among the ND fanbase, there would be little to no interest in that. BC may consider ND to be their rival, but no one associated with ND will ever consider BC to be their rival. There's grumbling among ND's fanbase that the all-time record against BC isn't comparable to the all-time record against Navy. Granted, ND's administration doesn't always act in the same manner that ND's fanbase would wish it did, but I think Yormark would be more interested in a non-football wing that included Gonzaga, Georgetown and Villanova along with ND than adding BC.

Oh sorry, I meant to the BigEast. I should have clarified.

I think Pitt, Louisville, and maybe Syracuse, make the trip to the Big12. And if so, ND could go along with those.

But before that happens, I think the Big12 likely loses a few schools.

There's also the option that ND just forms a new conference and picks who they want to join. Oh wait, that's what the current ACC is turning into... Nevermind : )

Who would the XII lose? AZ? AZST? CO? KS? UT? Someone else?

lose - by P2 poaching...

For the Big10, any of the 4Cs and Kansas, are the most likely, due to AAU, etc.

For the SEC, Kansas, another TX school, and/or possibly others.

If 24 is the goal is either the SEC or B1G sweep the jewels of the ACC, then I could see Kansas or the 4C being considered. Otherwise, I'm not so sure.

Let's say the B1G grabbed Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Stanford, and Virginia for 24. The SEC would take Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech, and...? If they want 24, I'm not sure who would suffice. Would the SEC go for Colorado, Kansas, Utah, plus an Arizona school? Would the SEC consider Louisville or Duke? What about a non-power school like Tulane in the heart of SEC-country? I'm just not sure what the SEC would do IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.

Let's say the SEC went to 24 with Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia. Would the B1G be able to get Notre Dame? They would likely take California and Stanford. What about Virginia Tech and North Carolina St? Or Pittsburgh or Syracuse? Or even the 4C? I'm not sure who the B1G would consider in the scenario IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.

The most likely race to 24, in my mind, involves the conferences splitting the top of the ACC.
SEC adds Clemson, Colorado, Florida St, Kansas, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.
B1G adds California, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, and Stanford.

XII (14) swallows the ACC (6) and adds 4 of Memphis, Oregon St, San Diego St, South Florida, Tulane, and Washington St.

Would you care to tell me when the Big 10 has landed anything that the SEC also wanted? Seriously? Texas? Texas A&M? Possibly Oklahoma? Other than those the 2 conferences haven't gone head to head. North Carolina has twice approached the SEC. In 2011 it was about coming with Duke if Virginia headed to the Big 10. I don't think either conference sweeps the 3 academic jewels of the ACC and that is what they are, academic jewels. Of the three only UNC has an athletic value worthy of either conference. Virginia doesn't have much revenue punch at all for athletics. Duke has some but in basketball.

If the number is 20, which I believe to be more likely, the SEC will go after Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and either Clemson or Miami.

With FOX/Big 10 looking to monetize a kind of NIT tournament in the future, I look for a push toward a breakaway national tournament for the championship in basketball. Hoops will slightly more than double in value if this transpires.

I believe the networks stressed football to consolidate the biggest money first. When Yormark raised the possibility of adding hoops only the plan was tipped to us. If the Big 10 and SEC move to 24 it will be with hoops brands, possibly at a reduced rate, but with football playing hoops brands. I think the Big 12 will pick up the hoops only brands.

If the SEC added Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Clemson, to complete football branding in the SE, I could see an SEC and Big 10 competition for Miami (which also has good basketball). I could see the SEC taking Duke to appease and cement UNC and because ESPN would want to keep them, and I could see a similar competition between the SEC and Big 10 over Kansas which has football but is a hoops blueblood. ESPN also has a yen for Kansas.

I think Virginia goes Big 10 with Colorado. I believe ESPN will want to keep Miami and Duke. Stanford and Cal wind up in the Big 10 and if the Big 10 is smart they take Utah as well along with one of the Arizona schools.

Big 10 to 20: Virginia and Colorado (the Buffs to help link the West to the Midwest). To 24: Arizona, Cal, Stanford and Utah.

SEC to 20: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech. To 24: Duke, Miami, Kansas, and N.C. State just to complete the Research Triangle.

Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse to the Big 12 with Connecticut, San Diego State and South Florida.

(09-13-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 09:45 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 06:22 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 01:00 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 02:17 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Oh sorry, I meant to the BigEast. I should have clarified.

I think Pitt, Louisville, and maybe Syracuse, make the trip to the Big12. And if so, ND could go along with those.

But before that happens, I think the Big12 likely loses a few schools.

There's also the option that ND just forms a new conference and picks who they want to join. Oh wait, that's what the current ACC is turning into... Nevermind : )

Who would the XII lose? AZ? AZST? CO? KS? UT? Someone else?

lose - by P2 poaching...

For the Big10, any of the 4Cs and Kansas, are the most likely, due to AAU, etc.

For the SEC, Kansas, another TX school, and/or possibly others.

If 24 is the goal is either the SEC or B1G sweep the jewels of the ACC, then I could see Kansas or the 4C being considered. Otherwise, I'm not so sure.

Let's say the B1G grabbed Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Stanford, and Virginia for 24. The SEC would take Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech, and...? If they want 24, I'm not sure who would suffice. Would the SEC go for Colorado, Kansas, Utah, plus an Arizona school? Would the SEC consider Louisville or Duke? What about a non-power school like Tulane in the heart of SEC-country? I'm just not sure what the SEC would do IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.

Let's say the SEC went to 24 with Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia. Would the B1G be able to get Notre Dame? They would likely take California and Stanford. What about Virginia Tech and North Carolina St? Or Pittsburgh or Syracuse? Or even the 4C? I'm not sure who the B1G would consider in the scenario IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.

The most likely race to 24, in my mind, involves the conferences splitting the top of the ACC.
SEC adds Clemson, Colorado, Florida St, Kansas, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.
B1G adds California, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, and Stanford.

XII (14) swallows the ACC (6) and adds 4 of Memphis, Oregon St, San Diego St, South Florida, Tulane, and Washington St.

Would you care to tell me when the Big 10 has landed anything that the SEC also wanted? Seriously? Texas? Texas A&M? Possibly Oklahoma? Other than those the 2 conferences haven't gone head to head. North Carolina has twice approached the SEC. In 2011 it was about coming with Duke if Virginia headed to the Big 10. I don't think either conference sweeps the 3 academic jewels of the ACC and that is what they are, academic jewels. Of the three only UNC has an athletic value worthy of either conference. Virginia doesn't have much revenue punch at all for athletics. Duke has some but in basketball.

If the number is 20, which I believe to be more likely, the SEC will go after Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and either Clemson or Miami.

With FOX/Big 10 looking to monetize a kind of NIT tournament in the future, I look for a push toward a breakaway national tournament for the championship in basketball. Hoops will slightly more than double in value if this transpires.

I believe the networks stressed football to consolidate the biggest money first. When Yormark raised the possibility of adding hoops only the plan was tipped to us. If the Big 10 and SEC move to 24 it will be with hoops brands, possibly at a reduced rate, but with football playing hoops brands. I think the Big 12 will pick up the hoops only brands.

If the SEC added Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Clemson, to complete football branding in the SE, I could see an SEC and Big 10 competition for Miami (which also has good basketball). I could see the SEC taking Duke to appease and cement UNC and because ESPN would want to keep them, and I could see a similar competition between the SEC and Big 10 over Kansas which has football but is a hoops blueblood. ESPN also has a yen for Kansas.

I think Virginia goes Big 10 with Colorado. I believe ESPN will want to keep Miami and Duke. Stanford and Cal wind up in the Big 10 and if the Big 10 is smart they take Utah as well along with one of the Arizona schools.

Big 10 to 20: Virginia and Colorado (the Buffs to help link the West to the Midwest). To 24: Arizona, Cal, Stanford and Utah.

SEC to 20: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech. To 24: Duke, Miami, Kansas, and N.C. State just to complete the Research Triangle.

Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse to the Big 12 with Connecticut, San Diego State and South Florida.

I don't know what schools both the B1G and SEC sought for membership. I do think the ACC schools are a little different. I wouldn't be surprised if either conference ended up with some combination of Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, or Virginia. In many ways, they fit aspects of the profile for each the B1G and SEC. Clemson, Florida St, Louisville, North Carolina St, and Virginia Tech are much closer to being "SEC Schools." Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Syracuse, and Utah are much closer to being "B1G Schools."

(09-13-2023 11:16 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 09:45 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 06:22 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 01:00 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Who would the XII lose? AZ? AZST? CO? KS? UT? Someone else?

lose - by P2 poaching...

For the Big10, any of the 4Cs and Kansas, are the most likely, due to AAU, etc.

For the SEC, Kansas, another TX school, and/or possibly others.

You miss the point! It's not which schools fit better with the SEC or Big 10, it's about where their donors and fanbase want them to play. Not the academicians who are there only briefly, not the Big 10, not the SEC, but where their donors and fans (the customer base) wants them to play if the ACC is no longer an option. At North Carolina that is very clear. Florida State and Clemson are pretty clear too. There is a reason the SEC makes 15 million more a year on average per school in all revenue streams except media rights. And that is the reason the business mean donors and trustees want to be affiliated with the SEC.


If 24 is the goal is either the SEC or B1G sweep the jewels of the ACC, then I could see Kansas or the 4C being considered. Otherwise, I'm not so sure.

Let's say the B1G grabbed Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Stanford, and Virginia for 24. The SEC would take Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech, and...? If they want 24, I'm not sure who would suffice. Would the SEC go for Colorado, Kansas, Utah, plus an Arizona school? Would the SEC consider Louisville or Duke? What about a non-power school like Tulane in the heart of SEC-country? I'm just not sure what the SEC would do IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.

Let's say the SEC went to 24 with Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia. Would the B1G be able to get Notre Dame? They would likely take California and Stanford. What about Virginia Tech and North Carolina St? Or Pittsburgh or Syracuse? Or even the 4C? I'm not sure who the B1G would consider in the scenario IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.

The most likely race to 24, in my mind, involves the conferences splitting the top of the ACC.
SEC adds Clemson, Colorado, Florida St, Kansas, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.
B1G adds California, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, and Stanford.

XII (14) swallows the ACC (6) and adds 4 of Memphis, Oregon St, San Diego St, South Florida, Tulane, and Washington St.

Would you care to tell me when the Big 10 has landed anything that the SEC also wanted? Seriously? Texas? Texas A&M? Possibly Oklahoma? Other than those the 2 conferences haven't gone head to head. North Carolina has twice approached the SEC. In 2011 it was about coming with Duke if Virginia headed to the Big 10. I don't think either conference sweeps the 3 academic jewels of the ACC and that is what they are, academic jewels. Of the three only UNC has an athletic value worthy of either conference. Virginia doesn't have much revenue punch at all for athletics. Duke has some but in basketball.

If the number is 20, which I believe to be more likely, the SEC will go after Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and either Clemson or Miami.

With FOX/Big 10 looking to monetize a kind of NIT tournament in the future, I look for a push toward a breakaway national tournament for the championship in basketball. Hoops will slightly more than double in value if this transpires.

I believe the networks stressed football to consolidate the biggest money first. When Yormark raised the possibility of adding hoops only the plan was tipped to us. If the Big 10 and SEC move to 24 it will be with hoops brands, possibly at a reduced rate, but with football playing hoops brands. I think the Big 12 will pick up the hoops only brands.

If the SEC added Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Clemson, to complete football branding in the SE, I could see an SEC and Big 10 competition for Miami (which also has good basketball). I could see the SEC taking Duke to appease and cement UNC and because ESPN would want to keep them, and I could see a similar competition between the SEC and Big 10 over Kansas which has football but is a hoops blueblood. ESPN also has a yen for Kansas.

I think Virginia goes Big 10 with Colorado. I believe ESPN will want to keep Miami and Duke. Stanford and Cal wind up in the Big 10 and if the Big 10 is smart they take Utah as well along with one of the Arizona schools.

Big 10 to 20: Virginia and Colorado (the Buffs to help link the West to the Midwest). To 24: Arizona, Cal, Stanford and Utah.

SEC to 20: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech. To 24: Duke, Miami, Kansas, and N.C. State just to complete the Research Triangle.

Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse to the Big 12 with Connecticut, San Diego State and South Florida.

I don't know what schools both the B1G and SEC sought for membership. I do think the ACC schools are a little different. I wouldn't be surprised if either conference ended up with some combination of Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, or Virginia. In many ways, they fit aspects of the profile for each the B1G and SEC. Clemson, Florida St, Louisville, North Carolina St, and Virginia Tech are much closer to being "SEC Schools." Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Syracuse, and Utah are much closer to being "B1G Schools."

Fit is almost virtually irrelevant. Boosters and donors make these decisions. They are the trustees and the people who fund the athletic endeavors. Virginia has options because they have donors which prefer the Big 10 and a fan base that is comfortable with either.

North Carolina, Florida State, and Clemson's donors and fanbase prefer the SEC because the SEC earns 15 million dollars more per year, per school, on average than the Big 10 in all revenue streams but media revenue. The advantages are significant for the travel and cultural aspects in such a move. Trustees which are usually significant donors as well as prominent business people prefer the SEC for the advantages to travel, gate, concessions, and the advertising synergy regionally.

Academicians didn't make the decisions at Texas or Oklahoma, trustees/regent did. University presidents now have an average stay of 3 to 4 years. They come from an academic pedigree and usually are not native to the South. Their importance is grossly overstated in these decisions. They have a vote on conference matters and likely have more power in a conference decision than they have in a domestic one at their schools.

Since Miami has to fly just about everywhere they play regional considerations are likely not quite as strong. Rivalries are in that case.

That Duke has been preferred as the travel companion of UNC has already been demonstrated in past talks about potential moves. I doubt the Big 10 would take Virginia Tech but they would add a market to the SEC which is the only reason I include them. And N.C. State, Duke, and UNC adds massive research credentials to the conference so if a bone is needed for the presidents to make that move (which would have to be to 24) the impetus would be there.

When I read most of the realignment theories I laugh out loud. Donors and alumni who purchase tickets have the largest say in realignment, especially when the largest donors are Trustees/Regents, or whatever they are called at a given institution.

The PAC 12 blew apart because of lousy management, but that would still not have happened if they had strong regional connections. They didn't. Fanbase support was mediocre to poor. Schools in the South know which side of their bread is buttered. The regional cohesion, even between the SEC and ACC is quite strong. it is why Sankey wants to maintain regional cohesion. It is why ESPN concentrated its product acquisitions in the SE and SW (Texas and Oklahoma). And it is why unless there is some top level agreement between FOX and ESPN on how to parse the ACC, most schools will prefer to stay in a Southern based conference.

Georgia Tech is a question of value. Miami is a question of fan preference where the SEC is not as strong, but access to rivals may be key. Duke could easily pick either, but where UNC goes could easily determine Duke's choice, if they have one.

Fit and academic preference won't be much of a factor and it's not like the academically minded would lack peers in the SEC.

So I guess I'm telling you for making decisions about what happens in the South you need a new set of guidelines. And the Big 10 with its contract expiring first and with media rights having potentially reached its zenith and likely to retreat, all of those other lines of revenue aside from media, where the SEC maintains a 15 million dollar average lead over a Big 10 school, and more over all the rest, will count more than ever.

(09-13-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 09:45 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 06:22 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 01:00 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 02:17 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Oh sorry, I meant to the BigEast. I should have clarified.

I think Pitt, Louisville, and maybe Syracuse, make the trip to the Big12. And if so, ND could go along with those.

But before that happens, I think the Big12 likely loses a few schools.

There's also the option that ND just forms a new conference and picks who they want to join. Oh wait, that's what the current ACC is turning into... Nevermind : )

Who would the XII lose? AZ? AZST? CO? KS? UT? Someone else?

lose - by P2 poaching...

For the Big10, any of the 4Cs and Kansas, are the most likely, due to AAU, etc.

For the SEC, Kansas, another TX school, and/or possibly others.

If 24 is the goal is either the SEC or B1G sweep the jewels of the ACC, then I could see Kansas or the 4C being considered. Otherwise, I'm not so sure.

Let's say the B1G grabbed Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Stanford, and Virginia for 24. The SEC would take Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech, and...? If they want 24, I'm not sure who would suffice. Would the SEC go for Colorado, Kansas, Utah, plus an Arizona school? Would the SEC consider Louisville or Duke? What about a non-power school like Tulane in the heart of SEC-country? I'm just not sure what the SEC would do IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.

Let's say the SEC went to 24 with Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia. Would the B1G be able to get Notre Dame? They would likely take California and Stanford. What about Virginia Tech and North Carolina St? Or Pittsburgh or Syracuse? Or even the 4C? I'm not sure who the B1G would consider in the scenario IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.

The most likely race to 24, in my mind, involves the conferences splitting the top of the ACC.
SEC adds Clemson, Colorado, Florida St, Kansas, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.
B1G adds California, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, and Stanford.

XII (14) swallows the ACC (6) and adds 4 of Memphis, Oregon St, San Diego St, South Florida, Tulane, and Washington St.

Would you care to tell me when the Big 10 has landed anything that the SEC also wanted? Seriously? Texas? Texas A&M? Possibly Oklahoma? Other than those the 2 conferences haven't gone head to head. North Carolina has twice approached the SEC. In 2011 it was about coming with Duke if Virginia headed to the Big 10. I don't think either conference sweeps the 3 academic jewels of the ACC and that is what they are, academic jewels. Of the three only UNC has an athletic value worthy of either conference. Virginia doesn't have much revenue punch at all for athletics. Duke has some but in basketball.

If the number is 20, which I believe to be more likely, the SEC will go after Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and either Clemson or Miami.

With FOX/Big 10 looking to monetize a kind of NIT tournament in the future, I look for a push toward a breakaway national tournament for the championship in basketball. Hoops will slightly more than double in value if this transpires.

I believe the networks stressed football to consolidate the biggest money first. When Yormark raised the possibility of adding hoops only the plan was tipped to us. If the Big 10 and SEC move to 24 it will be with hoops brands, possibly at a reduced rate, but with football playing hoops brands. I think the Big 12 will pick up the hoops only brands.

If the SEC added Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Clemson, to complete football branding in the SE, I could see an SEC and Big 10 competition for Miami (which also has good basketball). I could see the SEC taking Duke to appease and cement UNC and because ESPN would want to keep them, and I could see a similar competition between the SEC and Big 10 over Kansas which has football but is a hoops blueblood. ESPN also has a yen for Kansas.

I think Virginia goes Big 10 with Colorado. I believe ESPN will want to keep Miami and Duke. Stanford and Cal wind up in the Big 10 and if the Big 10 is smart they take Utah as well along with one of the Arizona schools.

Big 10 to 20: Virginia and Colorado (the Buffs to help link the West to the Midwest). To 24: Arizona, Cal, Stanford and Utah.

SEC to 20: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech. To 24: Duke, Miami, Kansas, and N.C. State just to complete the Research Triangle.

Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse to the Big 12 with Connecticut, San Diego State and South Florida.

Are you saying we were tipped off?



A little basketball humor there...

(09-13-2023 11:16 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I don't know what schools both the B1G and SEC sought for membership. I do think the ACC schools are a little different. I wouldn't be surprised if either conference ended up with some combination of Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, or Virginia. In many ways, they fit aspects of the profile for each the B1G and SEC. Clemson, Florida St, Louisville, North Carolina St, and Virginia Tech are much closer to being "SEC Schools." Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Syracuse, and Utah are much closer to being "B1G Schools."

That sounds about right.

The rest will likely come down to the circumstances of the moment.

Both the BigEast and the PAC were messes where various schools found homes over time.

And if, as it seems so far, espn and the SEC are disinterested in working with the ACC for a managed move, then I think the ACC will likely be just as messy.

(09-13-2023 08:00 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 11:16 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I don't know what schools both the B1G and SEC sought for membership. I do think the ACC schools are a little different. I wouldn't be surprised if either conference ended up with some combination of Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, or Virginia. In many ways, they fit aspects of the profile for each the B1G and SEC. Clemson, Florida St, Louisville, North Carolina St, and Virginia Tech are much closer to being "SEC Schools." Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Syracuse, and Utah are much closer to being "B1G Schools."

That sounds about right.

The rest will likely come down to the circumstances of the moment.

Both the BigEast and the PAC were messes where various schools found homes over time.

And if, as it seems so far, espn and the SEC are disinterested in working with the ACC for a managed move, then I think the ACC will likely be just as messy.

Quite the contrary. Why do you think Cal, Stanford and SMU were added and part of the reasoning was in case there were future departures? ESPN is not going to let this happen haphazardly, and anything the SEC says now is simply a smoke screen until moves are greenlighted. Until then the party line will remain disinterested. Some of these things have "allegedly" been in the works for a couple of years now and they "supposedly" began about 3 days after the OU & UT news broke. It is necessary that ESPN make this as orderly as possible and with no monetary damage to remaining parties.

It will be quite orderly.

I expect FSU, Clemson and North Carolina will head to the SEC. The fact that the 4th has not been named is irrelevant if Kansas is the 4th and is not necessary as there are 2 schools that would leap at an ACC invitation (Connecticut and South Florida). So, finding a cover for the 4th is not an issue. Maybe the 4th is unnamed because they are private (Duke / Miami). Maybe the 4th is not named because they aren't in the ACC (Kansas). Maybe they aren't named because they can't move unless their in state counterpart has a destination (Virginia Tech). Or maybe they aren't named because they would cause controversy (N.C. State). But whatever the reason ESPN knows why. They aren't disinterested at all. They are simply being quiet and fastidious.

I think they want it to appear that FSU instituted the concern that led to some schools wanting out and that therefore ESPN doesn't want these moves, but since they are inevitable, they facilitated them in the least damaging way possible. That's a much better look with much less potential liability. Because of that the SEC has to remain disinterested and appear to be willing to comply for their own security concerns, so not a predator.

Do that, honor the existing contracts, use the little to no pay for 7 years from the PAC 12 schools and SMU to cover a negotiated part of the costs of the rights buyback for those departing, and make it look like a crisis that ESPN mitigated and the SEC serendipitously benefitted from and voila. I wouldn't be surprised if something happened at anytime from the end of this month to next July. We'll see.

If the Big 10 wanted to land 2 to get to 20 who are the best marks? Virginia & Miami? Georgia Tech? Pittsburgh? And that would be assuming N.D. remains aloof.

I don't think either conference moves beyond 20 until the hoops breakaway aspect is played and then the rationale for further additions can be justified and for schools which don't have a great football valuation, but do have a strong hoops profile.

Should be fun.

I would suggest that anyone thinking that Carolina would ever join the SEC needs to read this article about Tez Walker.

https://247sports.com/college/north-caro...216034305/

"After all, it was SEC commissioner Greg Sankey who broke NCAA protocol while serving as the Committee on Infractions (COI) chairman in UNC’s African and Afro-American Studies case in 2016.

As a refresher, the COI delivered notice of a hearing set in October 2016 to address UNC’s procedural arguments with the NCAA’s amended notice of allegations. That notice arrived in Chapel Hill 33 days before the hearing. When UNC attempted to submit two letters of correspondence with the NCAA’s enforcement staff to verify its arguments in the days that followed, Sankey denied the submission on the basis that the documents had not been delivered at least 30 days prior to the hearing. The absence of those documents for consideration led the COI to request a third notice of allegations from the NCAA’s enforcement staff.


Sankey also lowered the standard of evidence required in NCAA COI cases by allowing the Wainstein Report to be submitted after it became clear the enforcement staff lacked evidence to punish the university, even though NCAA and UNC officials were not present for the interviews nor were any transcripts or audio recordings kept by Kenneth Wainstein’s law firm. Sankey ultimately admitted that there were factual inaccuracies in the Wainstein Report and therefore his committee had to discount some of the findings.

The NCAA never offered a public apology for Sankey’s mishandling of UNC’s infractions case, yet attempted to find its backbone on Tuesday in chastising UNC leadership for being critical of the organization’s decision to deny Walker’s waiver request. This is the same NCAA that said on Thursday that it does not comment on specific cases. Five days later, the NCAA took specific aim at UNC head football coach Mack Brown, suggesting that he’s a hypocrite for his views on transfers when a review of his comments confirm nothing of the sort."

Sankey is and has been trying his best for years to subdue Carolina and damage the ACC. No way is Carolina going to crawl into bed with that bunch of vipers in the SEC.

(09-13-2023 08:36 PM)XLance Wrote:  I would suggest that anyone thinking that Carolina would ever join the SEC needs to read this article about Tez Walker.

https://247sports.com/college/north-caro...216034305/

"After all, it was SEC commissioner Greg Sankey who broke NCAA protocol while serving as the Committee on Infractions (COI) chairman in UNC’s African and Afro-American Studies case in 2016.

As a refresher, the COI delivered notice of a hearing set in October 2016 to address UNC’s procedural arguments with the NCAA’s amended notice of allegations. That notice arrived in Chapel Hill 33 days before the hearing. When UNC attempted to submit two letters of correspondence with the NCAA’s enforcement staff to verify its arguments in the days that followed, Sankey denied the submission on the basis that the documents had not been delivered at least 30 days prior to the hearing. The absence of those documents for consideration led the COI to request a third notice of allegations from the NCAA’s enforcement staff.


Sankey also lowered the standard of evidence required in NCAA COI cases by allowing the Wainstein Report to be submitted after it became clear the enforcement staff lacked evidence to punish the university, even though NCAA and UNC officials were not present for the interviews nor were any transcripts or audio recordings kept by Kenneth Wainstein’s law firm. Sankey ultimately admitted that there were factual inaccuracies in the Wainstein Report and therefore his committee had to discount some of the findings.

The NCAA never offered a public apology for Sankey’s mishandling of UNC’s infractions case, yet attempted to find its backbone on Tuesday in chastising UNC leadership for being critical of the organization’s decision to deny Walker’s waiver request. This is the same NCAA that said on Thursday that it does not comment on specific cases. Five days later, the NCAA took specific aim at UNC head football coach Mack Brown, suggesting that he’s a hypocrite for his views on transfers when a review of his comments confirm nothing of the sort."

Sankey is and has been trying his best for years to subdue Carolina and damage the ACC. No way is Carolina going to crawl into bed with that bunch of vipers in the SEC.

Sure, you will, and you donors will take the lead. We'll see soon enough. And I don't know what you are woofing about because you were guilty as sin and the NCAA looked the other way saying it wasn't in their jurisdiction. Funny really!

(09-13-2023 08:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 08:00 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-13-2023 11:16 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I don't know what schools both the B1G and SEC sought for membership. I do think the ACC schools are a little different. I wouldn't be surprised if either conference ended up with some combination of Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, or Virginia. In many ways, they fit aspects of the profile for each the B1G and SEC. Clemson, Florida St, Louisville, North Carolina St, and Virginia Tech are much closer to being "SEC Schools." Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Syracuse, and Utah are much closer to being "B1G Schools."

That sounds about right.

The rest will likely come down to the circumstances of the moment.

Both the BigEast and the PAC were messes where various schools found homes over time.

And if, as it seems so far, espn and the SEC are disinterested in working with the ACC for a managed move, then I think the ACC will likely be just as messy.

Quite the contrary. Why do you think Cal, Stanford and SMU were added and part of the reasoning was in case there were future departures? ESPN is not going to let this happen haphazardly, and anything the SEC says now is simply a smoke screen until moves are greenlighted. Until then the party line will remain disinterested. Some of these things have "allegedly" been in the works for a couple of years now and they "supposedly" began about 3 days after the OU & UT news broke. It is necessary that ESPN make this as orderly as possible and with no monetary damage to remaining parties.

It will be quite orderly.

I expect FSU, Clemson and North Carolina will head to the SEC. The fact that the 4th has not been named is irrelevant if Kansas is the 4th and is not necessary as there are 2 schools that would leap at an ACC invitation (Connecticut and South Florida). So, finding a cover for the 4th is not an issue. Maybe the 4th is unnamed because they are private (Duke / Miami). Maybe the 4th is not named because they aren't in the ACC (Kansas). Maybe they aren't named because they can't move unless their in state counterpart has a destination (Virginia Tech). Or maybe they aren't named because they would cause controversy (N.C. State). But whatever the reason ESPN knows why. They aren't disinterested at all. They are simply being quiet and fastidious.

I think they want it to appear that FSU instituted the concern that led to some schools wanting out and that therefore ESPN doesn't want these moves, but since they are inevitable, they facilitated them in the least damaging way possible. That's a much better look with much less potential liability. Because of that the SEC has to remain disinterested and appear to be willing to comply for their own security concerns, so not a predator.

Do that, honor the existing contracts, use the little to no pay for 7 years from the PAC 12 schools and SMU to cover a negotiated part of the costs of the rights buyback for those departing, and make it look like a crisis that ESPN mitigated and the SEC serendipitously benefitted from and voila. I wouldn't be surprised if something happened at anytime from the end of this month to next July. We'll see.

If the Big 10 wanted to land 2 to get to 20 who are the best marks? Virginia & Miami? Georgia Tech? Pittsburgh? And that would be assuming N.D. remains aloof.

I don't think either conference moves beyond 20 until the hoops breakaway aspect is played and then the rationale for further additions can be justified and for schools which don't have a great football valuation, but do have a strong hoops profile.

Should be fun.

As you know, I've been saying for a long time that the smart move (in my opinion) would be a structured move from the ACC to the SEC.

I just am not seeing evidence of it as yet.

But as I (like most posters here) am a "nobody from nowhere", the best I can do is try to find the best information/journalism I can and go from there. That said, the rumors have indeed been interesting. So I guess we'll see what happens.

Said for awhile that I think "the" move would be FSU and Kansas. If they get Clemson and NC too, that would be gravy. Throw in VT and NC State, and I think everyone's happy.

Whatever happens, it should be interesting.