![]() |
|
The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - Printable Version +- CSNbbs (https://csnbbs.com) +-- Forum: Active Boards (/forum-769.html) +--- Forum: Lounge (/forum-564.html) +---- Forum: College Sports and Conference Realignment (/forum-637.html) +----- Forum: P5 Discussion (/forum-997.html) +----- Thread: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC (/thread-975112.html) |
The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - JRsec - 08-13-2023 07:14 PM The additional cost is in the per school SEC pro rata of the new media pay out: 7 x 35 = 245 million Cost of moving 2 to the Big 10: -40 x 2 = -80 million Cost of moving 5 teams to the Big 12: -20 x 5 = -100 million (plus exit fees) Total cost of all moves for ESPN: +65 million. ESPN loses the overhead of the ACCN and duplicated personalities and facilities. Saves 100 million. ESPN converts the LHN into the B12N and can do so easily because they have all of the T3 rights to the Big 12. They do this if it can be profitable. ESPN makes about 10 million more per game from the Content of just FSU and Clemson vs a SEC schedule. If the SEC moves to 10 conference games that's 200 million more and that doesn't count what Virginia Tech and Miami might make. The 9 schools moving to the SEC and Big 10 pay their $120 million exit fee only. Remember ESPN controls damages by placement of other schools and the collection and distribution of exit fees to those who may be left out, and to those headed to the Big 12 where they will make 8 million less than in the ACC, but each of the 5 schools not making the SEC or Big 10 would split 1.08 billion NETTING each of the 5 schools 216 million dollars each, more twice enough to cover the 96 million each would have made getting paid the ACC contracted amount through 2036. To the SEC: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech. Those 7 represent 59.4% of the total value of the ACC. Just FSU and Clemson are 24.7% of that. Those 7 sew up the Deep South making it all SEC and all ESPN. To the Big 10: Duke, Virginia To the Big 12: Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, possibly Wake Forest Notre Dame is on its own to decide their own future. SEC picks up Kansas for #8. Big 10 picks up California and Stanford (reduced rates) Notre Dame as a partial to each of the Big 10, SEC, Big 12. They play 4 Big 10 games, 4 SEC games, and 2 Big 12 games a season. Why do 7 go to the SEC? ESPN holds those rights in the ACC and the same rights in the SEC. If they want to keep 7 ACC schools this is the cost of it. This is a deal which improves the position of 9 schools, gives up to 5 more full access to the upper tier postseasons, and should any be left out rewards them handsomely for the inconvenience. This is the way you structure a deal which earns ESPN more money from the product they hold now, promotes 9 of the 15 schools. Gives Notre Dame the freedom to do what is best for them in a changing environment, and keeps at least 3, maybe all 5 other schools in the upper tier and pays them for their trouble. It puts the Big 10 into Virginia and North Carolina. It permits the SEC to control its region which is what it wants. It strengthens the Big 12 in markets and reach and maybe in T3 value. It's a win, win, win, from a potentially rotten situation. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - Porcine - 08-13-2023 07:37 PM Does this strengthen the B12 enough the PAC4 join it to finish things off? RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - JRsec - 08-13-2023 07:40 PM (08-13-2023 07:37 PM)Porcine Wrote: Does this strengthen the B12 enough the PAC4 join it to finish things off? I believe the Big 10 will eventually take Stanford and Cal. Oregon State should join the Big 12, they have stronger revenue numbers than several of the G5 they have taken. I'm not sure about Washington State being more than a wash, certainly no worse than the aforementioned save for BYU. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - Big 12 fan too - 08-13-2023 09:57 PM I don’t see the Big 12 picking BC and Wake over UConn, SDSU, or even perhaps USF. Oregon State unlikely as well. KU would call the BIG to see if they can get in on a partial share, despite being a better fit with UNC and UK. I still anticipate horse trading between the networks. Fox picking up some of the costs of the ACC undesirables in exchange for getting more BIG-ND games. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - JRsec - 08-13-2023 10:11 PM (08-13-2023 09:57 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote: I don’t see the Big 12 picking BC and Wake over UConn, SDSU, or even perhaps USF. Oregon State unlikely as well. My post allowed for those two not to be included with the Big 12, so it's baked in. Kansas would try to get a Big 10 invite, but I bet they would take an SEC invite if it was in hand, just like Missouri did. Plus there are more familiar faces for Kansas fans in the SEC than in the Big 10. Horse-trading won't involve pissing off Sankey by helping the Big 10 into the Deep South. As to ACC undesirables I don't think that would include Virginia and Duke for the Big 10. And if B.C. and Wake aren't accommodated they wouldn't be picking up any undesirables in the Big 12 either. Pitt and Cuse add value as does Louisville. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - Skyhawk - 08-14-2023 12:28 AM (08-13-2023 07:14 PM)JRsec Wrote: The additional cost is in the per school SEC pro rata of the new media pay out: 7 x 35 = 245 million If I'm reading your numbers correctly, it's even cheaper for espn, if the Big10 adds Miami too : ) And then the SEC also then doesn't have to worry about Kansas (and its exit costs) for now. the Big10 adds those 3 plus Stanford and stops. and both conferences are at 22. Sounds like a win-win-win to me : ) RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - JRsec - 08-14-2023 12:46 AM (08-14-2023 12:28 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:(08-13-2023 07:14 PM)JRsec Wrote: The additional cost is in the per school SEC pro rata of the new media pay out: 7 x 35 = 245 million 3 schools would make it cheaper. Whether that third school is Miami or Georgia Tech would be up to ESPN. And yes, it is a win-win-win, either way it is worked. if the SEC felt compelled to get to 24 to meet an inventory requirement by the network Kansas is still there, exit fee or not, and Louisville becomes a possibility. People keep thinking that schools have to be accretive of their own accord. If FOX and ESPN are going to consolidate to two top conferences, how many we expand to will have a great deal to do with their inventory requirements, much more so than the individual value of a school. If they only need 10 games a week, then we stop at 20. It just looks to me more like they are going to need 12, especially if weather or events can knock one or two out a week it's better to have a game or two left to stream. But that could ultimately be 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, or 30. I suspect the number will go up should the third conference be absorbed or suffer dropouts and need to be absorbed to keep those remaining whole. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - Fighting Muskie - 08-14-2023 04:46 PM There will be a price to pay if ESPN wants the Big 10 to help them with their ACC GOR problem—and it’s going to be a heck of a lot more costly than scrubby football programs like Duke and UVA who don’t offer a whole lot of value. The Big 10, at a minimum, is going to demand ND as a full member. That alone might not be enough—they will probably have to throw Miami in the deal too. The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - b2b - 08-14-2023 06:42 PM I see you've finally warmed up to the idea that UNC and NCSU are a package deal. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - JRsec - 08-14-2023 06:55 PM (08-14-2023 04:46 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: There will be a price to pay if ESPN wants the Big 10 to help them with their ACC GOR problem—and it’s going to be a heck of a lot more costly than scrubby football programs like Duke and UVA who don’t offer a whole lot of value. The Big 10, at a minimum, is going to demand ND as a full member. That alone might not be enough—they will probably have to throw Miami in the deal too. Muskie, has it occurred to anyone here that if 8 votes is all you need to dissolve the ACC, and if the SEC moves to 24 from 16, that taking the entire so called Magnificeint 7 plus either Georgia Tech, Duke, or Louisville accomplishes it without Big 10 help? That way ESPN keeps what they want, places them in the SEC, and then opens the doors for shoppers to take what they want from what is left. And ESPN is in position to move many of the remnant to the Big 12 where they still have over 50% of the rights. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - Wahoowa84 - 08-14-2023 08:46 PM This assumes that ESPN obsesses about “costs”. Yet ESPN prioritizes revenues and profits. For example, ESPN’s main financial interest in the ACCN is the $135M in annual profits…fixating on cutting $100M in costs while destroying value is not sound business. Similarly, paying FSU and other ACC schools an additional $30M per year is likely to destroy -rather than create- value for ESPN. Traditionally, ESPN creates value by promoting winning programs…ESPN can more easily enhance the brand value of FSU and Clemson when they’re in the ACC. Maybe the 12-team CFP will transform college football media rights into a NFL-lite model, but ESPN still has insurance and flexibility with the ACC contract. The proposal puts ESPN’s profits at greater risk. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - JRsec - 08-14-2023 09:15 PM (08-14-2023 08:46 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: This assumes that ESPN obsesses about “costs”. Yet ESPN prioritizes revenues and profits. For example, ESPN’s main financial interest in the ACCN is the $135M in annual profits…fixating on cutting $100M in costs while destroying value is not sound business. Similarly, paying FSU and other ACC schools an additional $30M per year is likely to destroy -rather than create- value for ESPN. Traditionally, ESPN creates value by promoting winning programs…ESPN can more easily enhance the brand value of FSU and Clemson when they’re in the ACC. Except Wahoowa you aren't destroying anything. The subscribers are simply added to the SECN subscribers. Duplicated overhead is lost. The SEC states with ACCN out of footprint subscribers are now credited as in footprint subscribers and vice versa for the SECN subscribers in ACC states. You lose nothing but duplicated production expenses. ESPN likely uses the LHN to make a Big 12 Network with subscribers from the West, Northeast and some from the Mid-Atlantic. ESPN has bought all of the Big 12's T3 rights. And don't be absurd either! ESPN has no difficulty in frequent purges of talking heads to cut expenses. They know that profit can be made in sales or in reduction of overhead through savings. Quarterly statements drive that. Now as to creating or destroying value because you pay those moving the SEC or Big 10 75 million instead of 40: Each SEC T1 game is worth about 24 million dollars to the network, that is what ABC will be paying. Clemson and Florida State and North Carolina can deliver the eyeballs necessary to earn T1 status when playing against one of Nine SEC teams capable of the same. So, 3/4's of the games scheduled against SEC opponents x the number of new teams would mean with a 10-game conference schedule that 7 out of 10 SEC schools played and those 3 ACC schools would generate 10 million more than T1 game in the ACC generates. 16 SEC schools x 3/4 is 12 in a 10-game conference schedule it's fair to assume that 7 of those games will net ESPN 10 million more than was earned in the ACC. 3 schools even with N.C. State in tow, would generate 21 games worth T1 value that's 210 million more than would be made against the current ACC schedule. The total cost of the 3 named schools and N.C. State to the SEC would cost ESPN 140 million more. They reap a 33% increase on their investment. Any company would take that anytime they could. Care to rethink your position? RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - AllTideUp - 08-14-2023 11:54 PM (08-14-2023 08:46 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: This assumes that ESPN obsesses about “costs”. Yet ESPN prioritizes revenues and profits. For example, ESPN’s main financial interest in the ACCN is the $135M in annual profits…fixating on cutting $100M in costs while destroying value is not sound business. Similarly, paying FSU and other ACC schools an additional $30M per year is likely to destroy -rather than create- value for ESPN. Traditionally, ESPN creates value by promoting winning programs…ESPN can more easily enhance the brand value of FSU and Clemson when they’re in the ACC. If that were true then we wouldn't be where we are. ESPN has been deeply embedded in the ACC for many years, and FSU and Clemson don't have the brand value that many of their peers do. If they did then the TV money would be roughly equal between the SEC and ACC. It's just not and that doesn't involve any favoritism. This isn't simply a function of the depth of the ACC either. TV value follows brand value. The more people watch your school, the more money you make. Ticket sales and other revenue streams are important too, but media revenue is a direct reflection of what people think of you. There have been missteps along the way by ACC leadership, but FSU and Clemson(and others) would clearly be cashing in more in another league. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - Fighting Muskie - 08-15-2023 07:04 AM (08-14-2023 06:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:(08-14-2023 04:46 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: There will be a price to pay if ESPN wants the Big 10 to help them with their ACC GOR problem—and it’s going to be a heck of a lot more costly than scrubby football programs like Duke and UVA who don’t offer a whole lot of value. The Big 10, at a minimum, is going to demand ND as a full member. That alone might not be enough—they will probably have to throw Miami in the deal too. I have to think it’s higher than 8–probably more like 12. That’s what makes dissolution so hard. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - BePcr07 - 08-15-2023 11:45 AM I have zero grasp on the financials of this happening: SEC to 24: Clemson, Florida St, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, Virginia Tech XII to 24: Arizona, Arizona St, Baylor, Boston College, BYU, California, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado, Duke, Georgia Tech, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Louisville, Oklahoma St, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Syracuse, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah, Wake Forest, West Virginia B1G sits at 18. MWC goes to 14 with Oregon St and Washington St. SEC East: Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, Virginia Tech South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida St, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St Southeast: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt Southwest: Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M XII Central: Baylor, Colorado, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech East: Boston College, Duke, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest, West Virginia Metro: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Houston, Louisville, TCU West: Arizona, Arizona St, BYU, California, Stanford, Utah RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - Porcine - 08-15-2023 04:41 PM (08-13-2023 07:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:(08-13-2023 07:37 PM)Porcine Wrote: Does this strengthen the B12 enough the PAC4 join it to finish things off? Maybe the go early enough so the MWC and AAC schools don't waste a bunch of money moving over. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - EdwordL - 08-15-2023 09:47 PM (08-13-2023 09:57 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote: I don’t see the Big 12 picking BC and Wake over UConn, SDSU, or even perhaps USF. Oregon State unlikely as well. At this point, after being passed over (several times) by the Big Ten, KU would likely be happy to fill out the western-most section of the SEC. Future NCAA BB championships, which could have been credited to the Big Ten (seeing a dearth of those lately), would be welcomed in an SEC that values winning. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - AllTideUp - 08-17-2023 06:08 AM (08-15-2023 09:47 PM)EdwordL Wrote:(08-13-2023 09:57 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote: I don’t see the Big 12 picking BC and Wake over UConn, SDSU, or even perhaps USF. Oregon State unlikely as well. I've said for a long time that Kansas makes sense for the SEC. I've even said Kansas is probably more valuable to the SEC than Big Ten. One reason is what you mentioned, the SEC doesn't have a ton of traditional basketball powers even though the league is more competitive today than in times past. I for one would love to see the Jayhawks come through Tuscaloosa...the SEC would benefit from some serious brand power in that sport. Another reason is rekindling a regular season rivalry with Missouri would be great for both schools and help engage fans in that region. Speaking to the last point, Kansas and Missouri are a portion of the country not fully integrated with SEC graduates/culture/casual fans. This is fairly new territory for us although it seems the Big Ten has more bleed over with Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois being nearby. This corner of the country is a cross section so it's never going to be fully dominated by anyone, but it would be best for the SEC if we penetrated further especially now that Oklahoma is officially on board. My first thought about Kansas joining the SEC came many years ago during the time when Texas was exploring leaving the Big 12 and the league subsequently started suffering defections. It was a little bit amazing the league didn't die off at that time and it certainly speaks to the cultural strength of the league that it didn't die off a few years ago after even more disruptions. Anyway, what brought this idea to my attention was an ESPN article that talked mostly about Texas, but quoted a Kansas official(I don't remember if the person was named or not). This person stated an ideal scenario would be going to the SEC. That was unheard of at the time even on boards like this where we discuss hypotheticals all the time. It didn't get a lot of play as it was buried in the article. An unnamed SEC official was asked and stated he didn't think the SEC would go that direction. Of course, that was well over 10 years ago and the backdrop was that the SEC was courting Texas A&M and Oklahoma as a pair. The SEC was looking for 2 new markets to fulfill contract provisions and the thought at the time was that leagues would probably stop once they reached 16. Not that anyone would officially say anything like that, but I imagine the thought process was not centered on going past that point in short order. People were still thinking in terms of making small steps and integrating in a more methodical process. Anyway, David Boren at OU pushed back because neither Oklahoma State or Texas, for that matter, had an official invite. They wanted to go with one of their traditional rivals. Likely, Texas wasn't ready to make the move yet and Oklahoma State just wasn't a good option unless maybe Texas was coming too...to finish out at 16. As history unfolded, we took Texas A&M and Missouri. A&M was chomping at the bit and Mizzou needed safe harbor. Now that Texas and Oklahoma are both in the fold, the SEC can consider other paradigms. With that in mind, I've always felt that ESPN would ideally want Kansas in the SEC so they could control all that basketball content. My thought process being that ESPN or any network still needs to sell ads outside of football season. They still want to sell subscriptions to streaming services at that...and if you're going month to month then you need seasonal content to drive interest. Well, Kansas is one of the very few truly national brands in college basketball. They command an audience no matter what so if you're ESPN and you want guaranteed viewers then Kansas is an important piece. College basketball may generate less revenue than football which is why the P2 isn't building around basketball, but that doesn't mean networks don't consider the thread it pulls. ESPN especially commits a lot of time and revenue to that sport so adding Kansas to the SEC is a good solid play for them. With that said, I'm doubtful now that it will ever happen simply because the new Big 12 has already signed their GOR. My thought being that if Kansas was on deck to move anytime soon then there's no real reason to sign that document. Yes, they could pay some fees and get out of it, but that's an unnecessary expense if you think you're on the move. I could be wrong and maybe some other arrangement is worked out if the Big 12 adds new pieces from the ACC. It would still make sense for all parties, it's just not as simple anymore. RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - GarnetAndBlue - 08-18-2023 08:01 AM (08-15-2023 11:45 AM)BePcr07 Wrote: I have zero grasp on the financials of this happening: That SEC "South" division is brutally tough historically. Bama, LSU, FSU and Auburn have ALL won NC's in just the past 16 years. The schools in that division certainly drew the short straw in terms of path to a division/conference/national title. But what fun it would be! RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC - JRsec - 08-20-2023 11:01 AM A Case of SEC: 24 Count Clemson, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt Alabama, Kentucky, Miami, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M |