I'm letting the Marchand Ourand Podcast be my guide this week. John Ourand thinks if there is a Pac-12 deal, it should be wrapped up some time around Labor Day.

With that being said, I predict the Pac-12 to stay together and add SDSU and SMU. Oregon and Washington don't have a B1G lifeline and will keep the league together. I don't know how much or with who the TV contract will be but I do think SDSU and SMU will get severely reduced shares to keep the remaining ten at least competitive with the next conference up.

The Big 12 ultimately decides to stay at 12. Unable to grab any P5 institutions, the Big 12 presidents decide against adding UConn, Memphis, or Gonzaga.

Side programming note: with the addition of USC and UCLA, the B1G decides to go to a 22-game basketball schedule and shelve the Gavitt Games.

The conference next up is the Big East. With the Pac-12 and Big 12 both out on Gonzaga, the Big East has the leverage to get the Zags at the price they want. The Big East invites Gonzaga, but the latter has to pay the league travel subsidies equal to 10% of their TV distribution. The league keeps the 20-game conference schedule and splits into an east division and west division for scheduling purposes.

Following the departure of SMU, the American is down to 13 football schools. After some internal discussion, the league ultimately adds Georgia State over Texas State to get back to 14. GSU gets the league into Atlanta, and the program gets a pay raise and more visibility.

The Mountain West is up next. Although staying at 11 appeals to the league, getting into Texas with Texas State appeals more. The MW invites Texas State who accepts.

The Sun Belt is now down to 12 members. They ultimately decides to stand pat as ESPN does not cut their per school payout.

After the departure of Gonzaga, the WCC decides to get back to 10 members. The league invites Seattle and Grand Canyon.

After the departures of Seattle and Grand Canyon, the WAC is down to 9 members. This is the WAC we are talking about- a cockroach that can't be killed. The remaining composition of the league includes 5 Texas schools, 3 Utah schools, and 1 California school. This geography entices a certain school in Oklahoma who sees an opportunity to upgrade the level at which its basketball program plays- Oral Roberts. The WAC invites Oral Roberts to stabilize at 10 members.

The next move is one that has been hypothesized: Bellarmine to the Horizon. Bellarmine is in its last year as a transitional member and would be a full Division 1 member by the time it joins the league. The Horizon is now at 12 schools.

The final league on the docket is the Summit. Down to 8 members it would prefer to add at least one school. However, they have a problem: nobody in a Division 1 conference is interested. They ask around the Division 2 Minnesota schools, and they all decline. This leaves the league with a choice: Chicago State or Augustana. The league ultimately invites Augustana to get back to 9 members.

This leaves Division 1 with 363 members, 134 FBS schools, 129 FBS schools, 1 independent, and 32 conferences as of July 1, 2025.

SDSU and SMU to the PAC
UTEP to the MWC
Georgia State to the AAC
Sam Houston State,Missouri State and Delaware to SunBelt
CUSA back fills with the WAC/ASUN schools

GK at PAC-12 football media day

(07-06-2023 08:45 PM)TeamRamRod1 Wrote:  GK at PAC-12 football media day

I feel like I should start up a website, try to get like 15-20 twitter followers, and go to Pac media days just for the lols. Should be entertaining.

(07-06-2023 07:35 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  After the departures of Seattle and Grand Canyon, the WAC is down to 9 members. This is the WAC we are talking about- a cockroach that can't be killed. The remaining composition of the league includes 5 Texas schools, 3 Utah schools, and 1 California school. This geography entices a certain school in Oklahoma who sees an opportunity to upgrade the level at which its basketball program plays- Oral Roberts. The WAC invites Oral Roberts to stabilize at 10 members.

The final league on the docket is the Summit. Down to 8 members it would prefer to add at least one school. However, they have a problem: nobody in a Division 1 conference is interested. They ask around the Division 2 Minnesota schools, and they all decline. This leaves the league with a choice: Chicago State or Augustana. The league ultimately invites Augustana to get back to 9 members.

After ORU's departure, Summit starts football and adds the Texas FB schools, leaving ORU stranded in the WAC.

(07-06-2023 07:35 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I'm letting the Marchand Ourand Podcast be my guide this week. John Ourand thinks if there is a Pac-12 deal, it should be wrapped up some time around Labor Day.

With that being said, I predict the Pac-12 to stay together and add SDSU and SMU. Oregon and Washington don't have a B1G lifeline and will keep the league together. I don't know how much or with who the TV contract will be but I do think SDSU and SMU will get severely reduced shares to keep the remaining ten at least competitive with the next conference up.

The Big 12 ultimately decides to stay at 12. Unable to grab any P5 institutions, the Big 12 presidents decide against adding UConn, Memphis, or Gonzaga.

Side programming note: with the addition of USC and UCLA, the B1G decides to go to a 22-game basketball schedule and shelve the Gavitt Games.

The conference next up is the Big East. With the Pac-12 and Big 12 both out on Gonzaga, the Big East has the leverage to get the Zags at the price they want. The Big East invites Gonzaga, but the latter has to pay the league travel subsidies equal to 10% of their TV distribution. The league keeps the 20-game conference schedule and splits into an east division and west division for scheduling purposes.

Following the departure of SMU, the American is down to 13 football schools. After some internal discussion, the league ultimately adds Georgia State over Texas State to get back to 14. GSU gets the league into Atlanta, and the program gets a pay raise and more visibility.

The Mountain West is up next. Although staying at 11 appeals to the league, getting into Texas with Texas State appeals more. The MW invites Texas State who accepts.

The Sun Belt is now down to 12 members. They ultimately decides to stand pat as ESPN does not cut their per school payout.

After the departure of Gonzaga, the WCC decides to get back to 10 members. The league invites Seattle and Grand Canyon.

After the departures of Seattle and Grand Canyon, the WAC is down to 9 members. This is the WAC we are talking about- a cockroach that can't be killed. The remaining composition of the league includes 5 Texas schools, 3 Utah schools, and 1 California school. This geography entices a certain school in Oklahoma who sees an opportunity to upgrade the level at which its basketball program plays- Oral Roberts. The WAC invites Oral Roberts to stabilize at 10 members.

The next move is one that has been hypothesized: Bellarmine to the Horizon. Bellarmine is in its last year as a transitional member and would be a full Division 1 member by the time it joins the league. The Horizon is now at 12 schools.

The final league on the docket is the Summit. Down to 8 members it would prefer to add at least one school. However, they have a problem: nobody in a Division 1 conference is interested. They ask around the Division 2 Minnesota schools, and they all decline. This leaves the league with a choice: Chicago State or Augustana. The league ultimately invites Augustana to get back to 9 members.

This leaves Division 1 with 363 members, 134 FBS schools, 129 FBS schools, 1 independent, and 32 conferences as of July 1, 2025.

PAC adds SDSU and SMU.
SDSU and SMU will get reduced shares (50%) to give incumbent members larger payout distribution and differ paying SDSU & SMU more distribution until much later...

B12 stays at 12...for now...unable to grab any PAC institutions....do not add UConn, Memphis, or Gonzaga at this time but option to add them at a later time...if applicable...

AAC lose SMU... adds TXST to get back to 14...leaves UTEP for the MWC to get into TX...GSU interested in staying in SBC...AAC options to add GSU at a later time if the lose any more members in the future...

MWC adds UTEP...gets into TX...

SBC loses TXST...adds SFA to replace TXST and get back to 14...
SFA less of an outlier as TXST

EDIT:
CUSA loses UTEP...adds from UAC for replacements...

WCC...loses BYU...adds Cal Baptist/Grand Canyon to get back to 10...
CBU balances WCC NorCal/SoCal membership at 4/4...
Grand Canyon within WCC geographic footprint...
IF WCC loses Gonzaga THEN WCC adds Seattle...

WAC loses SFA & CBU/GCU/Seattle...down to 9...
IF WAC loses Seattle/CBU THEN WAC invites Oral Roberts...
IF WAC loses GCU THEN WAC invites Denver...
WAC checks interest from Rocky Mtn Athletic Conference & Lone Star Conference for FB playing members to replace SFA...

Summit loses ORU &/or Denver...down to 7/8 members...invites Augustana to get 8/9 members...

One thing with these Ga State and Tx State scenarios....don't they make 2 million per school within the SBC TV contract? That is the same amount AAC is paying its 6 new additions. I don't think its very likely here particularly for Ga State which would be leaving Georiga Southern/App State behind.

Potential scenario:

PAC (SDSU, SMU)
XII (UConn, Memphis)
AAC (AFA, Boise, UNLV, Fresno)
MWC (UTEP, NMSU, SHSU)

AAC wants to be P6 and C2C. They weren't able to pull it off and had to settle for UTSA and UNT so the MWC couldn't have them.

Might be possible this time around.

(07-06-2023 11:08 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  CUSA loses UTEP & SFA...adds from UAC for replacements...

SFA is not a CUSA member.

RE: Augustana (Sioux Falls, SD)

They tried to go DI but their donors didn't put up the money; they went down the hockey path as next best option (like their fellow NSIC schools SCSU, MSUM, UMD). I don't see DI in their future unless PowerBall proceeds are involved.

Although starting to get more concerned about my hopeful prediction with all the PAC delays....guess I will stick with it....

PAC stays together and adds SDSU and SMU.

Big 12 adds UConn and Memphis.

AAC adds Texas State and Georgia State.

MWC adds UTEP.

(07-06-2023 07:35 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Side programming note: with the addition of USC and UCLA, the B1G decides to go to a 22-game basketball schedule and shelve the Gavitt Games.

20 games is enough. That way they play every team at least once and 5 teams twice. USC and UCLA can play each other twice every year. After that I guessing each Big Ten school will want to play more local non-conference games. So USC and UCLA can play non-conference games against the PAC and MWC.

The Gavitt games is only 8 games total I believe, so that's just 1 game every 2 years for the Big Ten schools, so not a big deal. I would imagine with the ACC challenge gone, the Big Ten might try another 8 game challenge against a separate conference. Big 12 seems like a good choice to join up with. That way every school can alternate challenges every other year. Play in Big East challenge one year, play in Big 12 challenge the other year.

Domino #1: No Pac-12 media deal materializes; none, zip, nada. Truth is, Apple doesn't actually care and is not offering way bigger money. This begins a collapse of the Pac-12 this Fall. Colorado then Arizona move to the Big 12, followed by Oregon and Washington begging into the B1G (on very B1G friendly terms). Arizona State and Utah capitulate, join the Big 12. Remaining schools, Cal, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State join the Mountain West. San Diego State, after battles by lawyers is reinstated, get their distributions, minus some payment.

note: MWC reopens media contract, possibly adding ESPN as a partner, with an additional slot due to the new schools.
Domino #2: Although the timeline is six to nine months out from starting, Notre Dame is not able to negotiate a deal with NBC or CBS for the necessary level of money to remain independent. Although on paper ND football is worth roughly $62M, the inability to guarantee must watch games most weeks means that value cannot be attained. A more realistic number they will be offered is 50-60% increase over the current $22M, or in the $40M range, give or take $2M. This is well below the $80 million the B1G is offering them. It might cost the Irish $150M to buy out the GOR, but they'd make that back in just four years, and be ahead by $300-400M over the coming decade. It's too big to pass up, even for the Fighting Irish. They capitulate in Fall 2024.

(07-07-2023 12:10 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Domino #1: No Pac-12 media deal materializes; none, zip, nada. Truth is, Apple doesn't actually care and is not offering way bigger money. This begins a collapse of the Pac-12 this Fall. Colorado then Arizona move to the Big 12, followed by Oregon and Washington begging into the B1G (on very B1G friendly terms). Arizona State and Utah capitulate, join the Big 12. Remaining schools, Cal, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State join the Mountain West. San Diego State, after battles by lawyers is reinstated, get their distributions, minus some payment.

note: MWC reopens media contract, possibly adding ESPN as a partner, with an additional slot due to the new schools.
Domino #2: Although the timeline is six to nine months out from starting, Notre Dame is not able to negotiate a deal with NBC or CBS for the necessary level of money to remain independent. Although on paper ND football is worth roughly $62M, the inability to guarantee must watch games most weeks means that value cannot be attained. A more realistic number they will be offered is 50-60% increase over the current $22M, or in the $40M range, give or take $2M. This is well below the $80 million the B1G is offering them. It might cost the Irish $150M to buy out the GOR, but they'd make that back in just four years, and be ahead by $300-400M over the coming decade. It's too big to pass up, even for the Fighting Irish. They capitulate in Fall 2024.

Cal, Stanford, OSU and WSU could easily raid the MWC and rebuild the Pac, though due to very high MWC exit fees it's also possible that they'd just merge the Pac with the MWC (keeping Pac name but with Nevarez as Commissioner). I think that in this exact scenario that Cal and Stanford would not follow through with it, however. They'd dissolve the Pac and talk to all of the other P5s about joining (even the Truck Stops), then, as a last resort, they'd go independent if nobody invites them. Stanford can easily afford independence, and Cal can get additional mooching from UCLA to hold them over until they get an invite somewhere.

Only if the Pac went down to OSU and WSU would you see a partial or complete MWC merger.

(07-07-2023 12:10 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Domino #1: No Pac-12 media deal materializes; none, zip, nada.

In that scenario ...

< in my best Howard Cosell voice >

Down goes PAC-Ten! Down goes PAC-Ten!

That's the "Oldsmobile" scenario: a 4-4-2. Four go here, four go there, two go MWC.

(07-07-2023 12:18 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-07-2023 12:10 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Domino #1: No Pac-12 media deal materializes; none, zip, nada. Truth is, Apple doesn't actually care and is not offering way bigger money. This begins a collapse of the Pac-12 this Fall. Colorado then Arizona move to the Big 12, followed by Oregon and Washington begging into the B1G (on very B1G friendly terms). Arizona State and Utah capitulate, join the Big 12. Remaining schools, Cal, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State join the Mountain West. San Diego State, after battles by lawyers is reinstated, get their distributions, minus some payment.

note: MWC reopens media contract, possibly adding ESPN as a partner, with an additional slot due to the new schools.
Domino #2: Although the timeline is six to nine months out from starting, Notre Dame is not able to negotiate a deal with NBC or CBS for the necessary level of money to remain independent. Although on paper ND football is worth roughly $62M, the inability to guarantee must watch games most weeks means that value cannot be attained. A more realistic number they will be offered is 50-60% increase over the current $22M, or in the $40M range, give or take $2M. This is well below the $80 million the B1G is offering them. It might cost the Irish $150M to buy out the GOR, but they'd make that back in just four years, and be ahead by $300-400M over the coming decade. It's too big to pass up, even for the Fighting Irish. They capitulate in Fall 2024.

Cal, Stanford, OSU and WSU could easily raid the MWC and rebuild the Pac, though due to very high MWC exit fees it's also possible that they'd just merge the Pac with the MWC (keeping Pac name but with Nevarez as Commissioner). I think that in this exact scenario that Cal and Stanford would not follow through with it, however. They'd dissolve the Pac and talk to all of the other P5s about joining (even the Truck Stops), then, as a last resort, they'd go independent if nobody invites them. Stanford can easily afford independence, and Cal can get additional mooching from UCLA to hold them over until they get an invite somewhere.

Only if the Pac went down to OSU and WSU would you see a partial or complete MWC merger.

I do agree that Utah, Cal and Stanford are sticky. They could hold together and try to rebuild. But if Oregon and Washington go, I doubt they can even muster a contract at AAC level. Exit fees are an issue for SDSU, they would be even more so for the rest of the MWC who are less well funded (excepting Colorado State). If Washington and Oregon are stuck, then maybe the losses can be contained at just CU and Arizona. SDSU and SMU can be brought in.

The problem is only Colorado State, South Florida, Memphis and maybe Temple are "P" capable financially, and support levels are way too weak at Temple and marginal at Colorado State and not awesome at Memphis (who also bring with them terrible academics that are off putting even for Big 12 schools).

If UW and Oregon go, Cal and Stanford won't have much choice. There is no Pac-12 deal, and losing those two schools means there is no chance to even get $10M per school in a cobbled together media deal. Hence it just falls apart completely. (Note, there is no exit fee, so there is no pile of money; the four remaining will simply split the NCAA tournament credit distributions of the exiting and turn out the lights.) The finances do not support a Pac-12 rebuild.

Big 12 adds Arizona and Colorado which lights a fire under the PAC

PAC at 8 adds SDSU, CSU, Hawaii, SMU. All 4 pass the academics test.

AAC tries for Army but is turned down. AFA joins since CSU is gone from the MWC.

MWC is at 8 and adds Texas State, UTEP and stops at 10.

SBC adds La Tech.

CUSA would be at 8 in 2024 with Kennesaw State coming so they add Tarleton State and EKU to get to 10.

When Yormark said he'd like to stay at 14, I'm quite certain he was talking about getting two PACs.

The B12 aint adding no Memphis and Yukon. If they were going to do that, they'd have done it last year.

(07-07-2023 06:53 AM)inutech Wrote:  

(07-06-2023 11:08 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  CUSA loses UTEP & SFA...adds from UAC for replacements...

SFA is not a CUSA member.

oh crap!!!...don't know what i was thinking...i'll make the correction...thanks for the heads up!!!

(07-07-2023 12:56 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  Big 12 adds Arizona and Colorado which lights a fire under the PAC

PAC at 8 adds SDSU, CSU, Hawaii, SMU. All 4 pass the academics test.

AAC tries for Army but is turned down. AFA joins since CSU is gone from the MWC.

MWC is at 9 and adds Texas State, UTEP and SHSU to blanket Texas.

SBC adds La Tech.

CUSA would be at 7 in 2024 with Kennesaw State coming so they add Tarleton State and EKU and stop at 9.

I like this, but I prefer something more fanciful:

Scenario A:
B1G - Adds Oregon and Washington on fractional shares that still put those 2 ahead of the Big XII schools. The 4 Corners, Cal, and Stanford are rebuffed by the B1G, which wants to save room for ND and ACC schools.

Big XII - Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State reluctantly join the Big XII after Oregon and Washington leave. The Big XII stops at 16 after adding four "P5" schools

PAC-12 - The four remaining schools, Stanford, Cal, Wazzu, and Oregon State, try and fail to attract enough G5 backfill to create a league with media $ in excess of the MWC and AAC. Stanford and Cal approach the ACC and obtain FB-only memberships; they either take their BB and Olympic sports together to the WCC or Big West, or, more likely, Stanford goes to the WCC with the other private schools and Cal reluctantly moves its non-FB sports to the Big West with the other UC schools. Wazzu and Oregon State join the Mountain West. The PAC-12 ceases to exist.

OR

Scenario B:
B1G - Rebuffs overtures from Washington and Oregon, stays at 16 for now.

PAC-12 - The remaining 10 schools decide that sticking together is better than joining a league with outposts in Orlando and Morgantown. Oregon, Washington, and the Four Corners are all hesitant to sign a long term GoR, so a deal that runs through the end of the B1G's current deal is reached. The league then saves SDSU from itself, and also invites SMU. Additionally, in a surprise move, the conference invites Hawaii as a FB-only addition, giving it 13 schools for football. Why do they do this? Because, with 13 schools, they can go to a 8 game schedule, which creates more opportunities for out-of-conference, made-or-TV matchups, and only decreases the total number of conference games for the media partner by 4 when compared to a 12 school, 9 game format. More importantly, it means 4 schools have to play at Hawaii annually, such that 4 of the 12 non-Hawaii schools get a 13th game annually; the conference then schedules those 4 games as part of home-and-home series against B1G, SEC, ACC, and Big XII schools. The "home" games for the PAC schools are played at SoFi in LA.

Big XII - Having failed to pry the Four Corners, the Big XII cannot reach a consensus to add UConn, Memphis, USF or any other G5 schools. The conference stays at 12 schools.

MWC - Assuming Colorado State and Air Force don't jump to the AAC along with Army, the MWC evaluates its options and decides to stand pat at 10 and play a round robin 9 game schedule.

AAC - Tries to attract Army, cannot pull it off. They invite Georgia State, which is another big city urban school like UTSA, UAB, USF, Charlotte, Temple, UAB, etc.

Sun Belt - The Sun Belt plays a game of Eff-Marry-Kill to decide which of MTSU, LA Tech, and WKU the league hates the least, and it invites one of those three.

CUSA - Replaces the departing school with McNeese, Stephen F. Austin, or another FCS call-up.

(07-07-2023 12:28 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  

(07-07-2023 12:10 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Domino #1: No Pac-12 media deal materializes; none, zip, nada.

In that scenario ...

< in my best Howard Cosell voice >

Down goes PAC-Ten! Down goes PAC-Ten!

That's the "Oldsmobile" scenario: a 4-4-2. Four go here, four go there, two go MWC.