B12 will NOT add any G-5 schools, such as Memphis. They might possibly take UConn if and only if an odd number of P-12 schools defect to B12 and ESPN/FOX will consider UCONN P-5 for pro rata purposes.

(07-07-2023 01:30 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  When Yormark said he'd like to stay at 14, I'm quite certain he was talking about getting two PACs.

The B12 aint adding no Memphis and Yukon. If they were going to do that, they'd have done it last year.

I mean I get the other G5’s wanting to feel special but a **** load has changed since the 4 invites were sent out……

1) USC and UCLA left devaluing the PAC-12 and opening up CA some

2) the Big 12 re-upped with the Big-12 and the PAC looks set to go streaming in competition with Fox/ESPN

3) ESPN has a new CEO that is squeezing the network on the cost side.

Even one of those things is significant but when you have all three changes both within the competitive landscape and in your prime TV partners ….. saying if they were going to do that they would have done it last year seems willfully blind to massive changes.

(07-07-2023 02:55 PM)indydoug Wrote:  B12 will NOT add any G-5 schools, such as Memphis. They might possibly take UConn if and only if an odd number of P-12 schools defect to B12 and ESPN/FOX will consider UCONN P-5 for pro rata purposes.

Your point is you don’t want the schools to lose money by adding a school. Lots of ways to skin that cat so it’s additive and you still add a 1 or 2 G5’s in the west. I could add 2 of Boise/Fresno/SDSU and still make it additive for both the teams being added, the Big 12 and ESPN.

For example:

Option 1: add team 1 and team 2 and ESPN contracts directly at 10-15M per…. Each of the 12 remaining teams gets a 1M kicker.

Total cost of 42M for ESPN with 12 or 11 games in 7:00 pm window added to BYU games.

Option 2: add team 1 and team 2 and ESPN contracts directly at 10-15M per…. Each team playing at team 1 or team 2 gets a 1M guarantee

Total cost of 42M for ESPN with 12 or 11 games in 7:00 pm window. These get added to BYU games

Why would ESPN do this?

Option 3: get a part of the PAC-12 deal. Likely cost minimum of $5M per minimum of 10 Schools. Total cost 50m on low end with high potential of 75 to 100

Total games 7*10* .25 = 17 games for 7:00 pm window.

From ESPNs perspective would you prefer
Texas Tech vs Team 1 or Oregon State vs Arizona
TCU vs Team 2 or Cal vs Wash State

(07-07-2023 02:13 PM)IWantToTalkToRalphSampson Wrote:  I like this, but I prefer something more fanciful:



AAC - Tries to attract Army, cannot pull it off. They invite Georgia State, which is another big city urban school like UTSA, UAB, USF, Charlotte, Temple, UAB, etc.

Sun Belt - The Sun Belt plays a game of Eff-Marry-Kill to decide which of MTSU, LA Tech, and WKU the league hates the least, and it invites one of those three.

CUSA - Replaces the departing school with McNeese, Stephen F. Austin, or another FCS call-up.

If the Sunbelt were to lose a team from the East, they're probably replacing them from the east. EVERYONE in that conference from message boards fans to ADs to the HQ keeps saying that they want to focus on regionality (within the divisions). A big part of the rationale for the schools they added this last round had to do with moving the Alabama schools west (and keeping them together). I'd assume that would continue.

I guess MTSU/WKU could go to either division (but you'd assume mostly East), but Tech (I think) would be more realistic (if still a longshot) to replace a Texas State than a Georgia State.

I wouldn’t necessarily put Georgia St first on the AAC’s list. I think they are cognizant of the threat of the MWC entering Texas and may look to protect their turf.

Let’s go wild.


The B1G invites the 8 PAC AAU schools as non-FB members. This addition allows regional scheduling in Olympic sports such that East vs West BB games are reduced from 36 to 20 games per year including a reduction for USCLA from 18 to 2 East vs West games. Similar reductions in travel burden facilitated by regional scheduling are seen across Olympic sports with the exception of Hockey (ASU) and LAX (Utah) where former PAC schools cannot schedule autonomously. UVU is also added as a wrestling affiliate for scheduling purposes.

The 8 non-FB members become football independents collectively negotiating their media contracts under the revived AAWU moniker and petition the NCAA for recognition as a single sport FB-only conference akin to the Pioneer. As part of joining the B1G for Olympic sports, each of the 16 B1G teams commits to a 1 game/year scheduling agreement with the AAWU.

Essentially, the AAWU gets a ND-like deal with the B1G, except while ND uses independence to get a better tv deal than the ACC, the AAWU schools use independence to get a crappier tv deal than the B1G. It’s essentially a mechanism for western B1G expansion with a set of schools with permanently reduced revenue.

The MWC schools join OSU, WSU in the PAC.

(07-06-2023 11:08 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  

(07-06-2023 07:35 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I'm letting the Marchand Ourand Podcast be my guide this week. John Ourand thinks if there is a Pac-12 deal, it should be wrapped up some time around Labor Day.

With that being said, I predict the Pac-12 to stay together and add SDSU and SMU. Oregon and Washington don't have a B1G lifeline and will keep the league together. I don't know how much or with who the TV contract will be but I do think SDSU and SMU will get severely reduced shares to keep the remaining ten at least competitive with the next conference up.

The Big 12 ultimately decides to stay at 12. Unable to grab any P5 institutions, the Big 12 presidents decide against adding UConn, Memphis, or Gonzaga.

Side programming note: with the addition of USC and UCLA, the B1G decides to go to a 22-game basketball schedule and shelve the Gavitt Games.

The conference next up is the Big East. With the Pac-12 and Big 12 both out on Gonzaga, the Big East has the leverage to get the Zags at the price they want. The Big East invites Gonzaga, but the latter has to pay the league travel subsidies equal to 10% of their TV distribution. The league keeps the 20-game conference schedule and splits into an east division and west division for scheduling purposes.

Following the departure of SMU, the American is down to 13 football schools. After some internal discussion, the league ultimately adds Georgia State over Texas State to get back to 14. GSU gets the league into Atlanta, and the program gets a pay raise and more visibility.

The Mountain West is up next. Although staying at 11 appeals to the league, getting into Texas with Texas State appeals more. The MW invites Texas State who accepts.

The Sun Belt is now down to 12 members. They ultimately decides to stand pat as ESPN does not cut their per school payout.

After the departure of Gonzaga, the WCC decides to get back to 10 members. The league invites Seattle and Grand Canyon.

After the departures of Seattle and Grand Canyon, the WAC is down to 9 members. This is the WAC we are talking about- a cockroach that can't be killed. The remaining composition of the league includes 5 Texas schools, 3 Utah schools, and 1 California school. This geography entices a certain school in Oklahoma who sees an opportunity to upgrade the level at which its basketball program plays- Oral Roberts. The WAC invites Oral Roberts to stabilize at 10 members.

The next move is one that has been hypothesized: Bellarmine to the Horizon. Bellarmine is in its last year as a transitional member and would be a full Division 1 member by the time it joins the league. The Horizon is now at 12 schools.

The final league on the docket is the Summit. Down to 8 members it would prefer to add at least one school. However, they have a problem: nobody in a Division 1 conference is interested. They ask around the Division 2 Minnesota schools, and they all decline. This leaves the league with a choice: Chicago State or Augustana. The league ultimately invites Augustana to get back to 9 members.

This leaves Division 1 with 363 members, 134 FBS schools, 129 FBS schools, 1 independent, and 32 conferences as of July 1, 2025.

PAC adds SDSU and SMU.
SDSU and SMU will get reduced shares (50%) to give incumbent members larger payout distribution and differ paying SDSU & SMU more distribution until much later...

B12 stays at 12...for now...unable to grab any PAC institutions....do not add UConn, Memphis, or Gonzaga at this time but option to add them at a later time...if applicable...

AAC lose SMU... adds TXST to get back to 14...leaves UTEP for the MWC to get into TX...GSU interested in staying in SBC...AAC options to add GSU at a later time if the lose any more members in the future...

MWC adds UTEP...gets into TX...

SBC loses TXST...adds SFA to replace TXST and get back to 14...
SFA less of an outlier as TXST

EDIT:
CUSA loses UTEP...adds from UAC for replacements...

WCC...loses BYU...adds Cal Baptist/Grand Canyon to get back to 10...
CBU balances WCC NorCal/SoCal membership at 4/4...
Grand Canyon within WCC geographic footprint...
IF WCC loses Gonzaga THEN WCC adds Seattle...

WAC loses SFA & CBU/GCU/Seattle...down to 9...
IF WAC loses Seattle/CBU THEN WAC invites Oral Roberts...
IF WAC loses GCU THEN WAC invites Denver...
WAC checks interest from Rocky Mtn Athletic Conference & Lone Star Conference for FB playing members to replace SFA...

Summit loses ORU &/or Denver...down to 7/8 members...invites Augustana to get 8/9 members...

You do realize Denver left the WAC when it had more attractive schools than it does today? ORU has no reason to go to the WAC, I could see ORU looking at CUSA as a non-football school. I could also see Missouri State leaving the MVC/MVFC for CUSA and NDSU/SDSU leaving the MVFC as FB only members in CUSA.

(07-07-2023 03:39 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(07-07-2023 02:55 PM)indydoug Wrote:  B12 will NOT add any G-5 schools, such as Memphis. They might possibly take UConn if and only if an odd number of P-12 schools defect to B12 and ESPN/FOX will consider UCONN P-5 for pro rata purposes.

Your point is you don’t want the schools to lose money by adding a school. Lots of ways to skin that cat so it’s additive and you still add a 1 or 2 G5’s in the west. I could add 2 of Boise/Fresno/SDSU and still make it additive for both the teams being added, the Big 12 and ESPN.

For example:

Option 1: add team 1 and team 2 and ESPN contracts directly at 10-15M per…. Each of the 12 remaining teams gets a 1M kicker.

Total cost of 42M for ESPN with 12 or 11 games in 7:00 pm window added to BYU games.

Option 2: add team 1 and team 2 and ESPN contracts directly at 10-15M per…. Each team playing at team 1 or team 2 gets a 1M guarantee

Total cost of 42M for ESPN with 12 or 11 games in 7:00 pm window. These get added to BYU games

Why would ESPN do this?

Option 3: get a part of the PAC-12 deal. Likely cost minimum of $5M per minimum of 10 Schools. Total cost 50m on low end with high potential of 75 to 100

Total games 7*10* .25 = 17 games for 7:00 pm window.

From ESPNs perspective would you prefer
Texas Tech vs Team 1 or Oregon State vs Arizona
TCU vs Team 2 or Cal vs Wash State

If the big 12 decided to add more g5s now, what would be the potential fallout?

- significantly less chance at raiding Pac in near or long term
- chance for slightly higher payouts today, but near certainty of lower payouts starting with next contract in 2031. best case is revenue neutral long term.
- dilutes the votes of all 12 members, so they need some sort of expected upside to even consider it
- fewer spots available for (hoped-for) future Pac and/or ACC refugees

I wouldn't say that the big 12 or any P team (even the P2) will never add a current g5, but I'd say that the only team that would even consider it today is the Pac. If the Pac stabilizes and maintains that stability until 2031, and/or it merges with the ACC, then the big 12 will probably start looking at g5s again. Until then? Chances are very low.

(07-07-2023 03:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wouldn’t necessarily put Georgia St first on the AAC’s list. I think they are cognizant of the threat of the MWC entering Texas and may look to protect their turf.

Texas State should be successful, but they just never win in football. The one argument in favor of the AAC choosing them over Ga State is to block the MWC. And convincing Ga State to make the move of course.

The PAC deal is the big IF in all of this.

Here's my "never going to happen" guesses...

Scenario A:
IF the PAC deal is good enough the current PAC schools stay on board and the PAC adds San Diego St & SMU. San Diego St and SMU probably get reduced shares that will increase over time.

The American's expansion playbook NEVER changes so they try to entice a MWC school to move to the American (Air Force, Colorado St, Boise St are the likely candidates) When none of the MWC schools agree to move they may look at Texas St. or Georgia St. but those SBC schools stay put. The American ultimately invites Middle Tennessee St. to try to claim the Nashville market.

The MWC looks at possible candidates like Texas St., Sam Houston St., New Mexico St. and UTEP but unhappy with those choices they ultimately kick the can down the road and stay at 10 full members for now.

CUSA after loosing MTSU has to call up another FCS school and looks at Delaware, SFA and Missouri St. for possible replacements. Missouri St. reportedly wasn't interested last go around and ultimately Liberty (being on a bit of an island) pushes through the University of Delaware to get them back to 10 full members.

No other FBS conferences are in play.

Scenario B:
IF the PAC deal is not done (or is less than some of the schools wanted) then we may indeed have a lot of moving pieces.

Big 12 adds Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Arizona St to go to 16 becoming the 3rd Super Conference positioned well behind the Big 10 & SEC.

PAC invites San Diego St., Fresno St, Nevada and attempts to get SMU but with the 4 corner schools defecting SMU decides to stay put for now. Boise St. is reluctantly added to get back to ten full members.

MWC is now desperate to re-fill so they invite Hawaii to become a full member. They then add UTEP and NMSU from CUSA. Texas St., LA Tech, N. Texas and UTSA are also vetted but ultimately those schools decide to stay put. MWC is set a 10 full members for the foreseeable future.

CUSA having lost it's far western flank moves east vetting Missouri St., E. Kentucky, Delaware and UMass. Ultimately Delaware and UMass accept invites getting CUSA back to 10 full members.

No other FBS conferences are in play

(07-07-2023 03:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wouldn’t necessarily put Georgia St first on the AAC’s list. I think they are cognizant of the threat of the MWC entering Texas and may look to protect their turf.

Georgia State already has a perfect G5 setup in the SBC East.

Texas State is more isolated on the edge of the SBC.

(07-07-2023 05:44 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  

(07-07-2023 03:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wouldn’t necessarily put Georgia St first on the AAC’s list. I think they are cognizant of the threat of the MWC entering Texas and may look to protect their turf.

Georgia State already has a perfect G5 setup in the SBC East.

Texas State is more isolated on the edge of the SBC.

If AAC invite any SBC team they go. If your not invited you claim you turmed them down.

JMU could get the AAC invite with Marshall and ODU as possiblities. Marshall would be the longest shot. If JMU and ODU get the invite Marshall is on an island by itself.

(07-07-2023 04:11 PM)jacksfan29! Wrote:  

(07-06-2023 11:08 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  

(07-06-2023 07:35 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I'm letting the Marchand Ourand Podcast be my guide this week. John Ourand thinks if there is a Pac-12 deal, it should be wrapped up some time around Labor Day.

With that being said, I predict the Pac-12 to stay together and add SDSU and SMU. Oregon and Washington don't have a B1G lifeline and will keep the league together. I don't know how much or with who the TV contract will be but I do think SDSU and SMU will get severely reduced shares to keep the remaining ten at least competitive with the next conference up.

The Big 12 ultimately decides to stay at 12. Unable to grab any P5 institutions, the Big 12 presidents decide against adding UConn, Memphis, or Gonzaga.

Side programming note: with the addition of USC and UCLA, the B1G decides to go to a 22-game basketball schedule and shelve the Gavitt Games.

The conference next up is the Big East. With the Pac-12 and Big 12 both out on Gonzaga, the Big East has the leverage to get the Zags at the price they want. The Big East invites Gonzaga, but the latter has to pay the league travel subsidies equal to 10% of their TV distribution. The league keeps the 20-game conference schedule and splits into an east division and west division for scheduling purposes.

Following the departure of SMU, the American is down to 13 football schools. After some internal discussion, the league ultimately adds Georgia State over Texas State to get back to 14. GSU gets the league into Atlanta, and the program gets a pay raise and more visibility.

The Mountain West is up next. Although staying at 11 appeals to the league, getting into Texas with Texas State appeals more. The MW invites Texas State who accepts.

The Sun Belt is now down to 12 members. They ultimately decides to stand pat as ESPN does not cut their per school payout.

After the departure of Gonzaga, the WCC decides to get back to 10 members. The league invites Seattle and Grand Canyon.

After the departures of Seattle and Grand Canyon, the WAC is down to 9 members. This is the WAC we are talking about- a cockroach that can't be killed. The remaining composition of the league includes 5 Texas schools, 3 Utah schools, and 1 California school. This geography entices a certain school in Oklahoma who sees an opportunity to upgrade the level at which its basketball program plays- Oral Roberts. The WAC invites Oral Roberts to stabilize at 10 members.

The next move is one that has been hypothesized: Bellarmine to the Horizon. Bellarmine is in its last year as a transitional member and would be a full Division 1 member by the time it joins the league. The Horizon is now at 12 schools.

The final league on the docket is the Summit. Down to 8 members it would prefer to add at least one school. However, they have a problem: nobody in a Division 1 conference is interested. They ask around the Division 2 Minnesota schools, and they all decline. This leaves the league with a choice: Chicago State or Augustana. The league ultimately invites Augustana to get back to 9 members.

This leaves Division 1 with 363 members, 134 FBS schools, 129 FBS schools, 1 independent, and 32 conferences as of July 1, 2025.

PAC adds SDSU and SMU.
SDSU and SMU will get reduced shares (50%) to give incumbent members larger payout distribution and differ paying SDSU & SMU more distribution until much later...

B12 stays at 12...for now...unable to grab any PAC institutions....do not add UConn, Memphis, or Gonzaga at this time but option to add them at a later time...if applicable...

AAC lose SMU... adds TXST to get back to 14...leaves UTEP for the MWC to get into TX...GSU interested in staying in SBC...AAC options to add GSU at a later time if the lose any more members in the future...

MWC adds UTEP...gets into TX...

SBC loses TXST...adds SFA to replace TXST and get back to 14...
SFA less of an outlier as TXST

EDIT:
CUSA loses UTEP...adds from UAC for replacements...

WCC...loses BYU...adds Cal Baptist/Grand Canyon to get back to 10...
CBU balances WCC NorCal/SoCal membership at 4/4...
Grand Canyon within WCC geographic footprint...
IF WCC loses Gonzaga THEN WCC adds Seattle...

WAC loses SFA & CBU/GCU/Seattle...down to 9...
IF WAC loses Seattle/CBU THEN WAC invites Oral Roberts...
IF WAC loses GCU THEN WAC invites Denver...
WAC checks interest from Rocky Mtn Athletic Conference & Lone Star Conference for FB playing members to replace SFA...

Summit loses ORU &/or Denver...down to 7/8 members...invites Augustana to get 8/9 members...

You do realize Denver left the WAC when it had more attractive schools than it does today? ORU has no reason to go to the WAC, I could see ORU looking at CUSA as a non-football school. I could also see Missouri State leaving the MVC/MVFC for CUSA and NDSU/SDSU leaving the MVFC as FB only members in CUSA.

Denver left the WAC (2013) because the WAC added GCU (2013)...Denver didn't want to be associated with a For-Profit school...in a scenario where GCU is off the board...Denver might be enticed to return to the WAC like UTA did...

ORU could look at CUSA as a non-FB school but CUSA is looking at FB playing members so ORU to CUSA is not likely...

LIKE Missouri State to CUSA...

NDSU/SDSU to MWC FB-only more likely...MWC better FB conference...

(07-07-2023 03:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wouldn’t necessarily put Georgia St first on the AAC’s list. I think they are cognizant of the threat of the MWC entering Texas and may look to protect their turf.

LIKE ^^^

(07-07-2023 04:55 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  CUSA after loosing MTSU has to call up another FCS school

Has to?

(07-07-2023 04:55 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  The PAC deal is the big IF in all of this.

Here's my "never going to happen" guesses...

Scenario A:
IF the PAC deal is good enough the current PAC schools stay on board and the PAC adds San Diego St & SMU. San Diego St and SMU probably get reduced shares that will increase over time.

The American's expansion playbook NEVER changes so they try to entice a MWC school to move to the American (Air Force, Colorado St, Boise St are the likely candidates) When none of the MWC schools agree to move they may look at Texas St. or Georgia St. but those SBC schools stay put. The American ultimately invites Middle Tennessee St. to try to claim the Nashville market.

The MWC looks at possible candidates like Texas St., Sam Houston St., New Mexico St. and UTEP but unhappy with those choices they ultimately kick the can down the road and stay at 10 full members for now.

CUSA after loosing MTSU has to call up another FCS school and looks at Delaware, SFA and Missouri St. for possible replacements. Missouri St. reportedly wasn't interested last go around and ultimately Liberty (being on a bit of an island) pushes through the University of Delaware to get them back to 10 full members.

No other FBS conferences are in play.

Scenario B:
IF the PAC deal is not done (or is less than some of the schools wanted) then we may indeed have a lot of moving pieces.

Big 12 adds Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Arizona St to go to 16 becoming the 3rd Super Conference positioned well behind the Big 10 & SEC.

PAC invites San Diego St., Fresno St, Nevada and attempts to get SMU but with the 4 corner schools defecting SMU decides to stay put for now. Boise St. is reluctantly added to get back to ten full members.

MWC is now desperate to re-fill so they invite Hawaii to become a full member. They then add UTEP and NMSU from CUSA. Texas St., LA Tech, N. Texas and UTSA are also vetted but ultimately those schools decide to stay put. MWC is set a 10 full members for the foreseeable future.

CUSA having lost it's far western flank moves east vetting Missouri St., E. Kentucky, Delaware and UMass. Ultimately Delaware and UMass accept invites getting CUSA back to 10 full members.

No other FBS conferences are in play

LIKE Scenario A:
PAC stays together...adds San Diego St & Southern Methodist U...
>SDSU & SMU get reduced shares (50%) that will increase over time...shares increase incrementally every PAC media contract renewal...
(50% ===> 66%)
(66% ===> 75%)
(75% ===> 100%)

AAC adds Texas St...reinforces TX presence...leaves UTEP for MWC...
>Memphis blocks MTSU as long as it's in the AAC...
>GSU & FIU are optioned to add at a later date...as needed...

MWC adds UTEP...gets a toe into TX...
>New Mexico St. is optioned to add at a later date...if necessary...but unhappy with prospect...

CUSA loses UTEP...looks at UAC for FCS call ups...
>invites SFA/Tarleton/E. Kentucky from UAC...
>Delaware & Missouri St. are also possible replacement candidates.

LIKE Scenario B:
PAC deal loses 4Cs to Big 12...

PAC adds San Diego St...
IF SMU stays in AAC THEN PAC adds from MWC R1 institutions...
adds...
UNR
UNLV
USU
CSU
...to replace 4Cs schools...
IF PAC adds SMU THEN PAC adds from MWC R1 institutions...
adds...
Hawaii (FB Only)
USU
CSU
...to replace 4Cs schools...

MWC adds UTEP & NMSU from CUSA...
>invites Hawaii to become a full member...Hawaii declines...MWC full membership puts Hawaii in similar travel situation that they were in when Hawaii was in the WAC...that's why Hawaii opted for MWC FB Only & BWC Non-FB...looks for FCS call ups...
>adds Montana & Montana St. from BSC as full members...
>invites NDSU & SDSU from MVFC as FB Only...
...gets to 10 full members + FB Only member(s) for foreseeable future...

CUSA loses UTEP & NMSU...looks at UAC for FCS call ups...
>adds SFA & Tarleton from UAC...
>invites E. Kentucky from UAC...
>invites Missouri St. from MVC...
>Delaware & UMass. are options for later date...
...attempts to get to 12 but gets back to 10 full members...

(07-08-2023 01:31 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  

(07-07-2023 04:55 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  The PAC deal is the big IF in all of this.

Here's my "never going to happen" guesses...

Scenario A:
IF the PAC deal is good enough the current PAC schools stay on board and the PAC adds San Diego St & SMU. San Diego St and SMU probably get reduced shares that will increase over time.

The American's expansion playbook NEVER changes so they try to entice a MWC school to move to the American (Air Force, Colorado St, Boise St are the likely candidates) When none of the MWC schools agree to move they may look at Texas St. or Georgia St. but those SBC schools stay put. The American ultimately invites Middle Tennessee St. to try to claim the Nashville market.

The MWC looks at possible candidates like Texas St., Sam Houston St., New Mexico St. and UTEP but unhappy with those choices they ultimately kick the can down the road and stay at 10 full members for now.

CUSA after loosing MTSU has to call up another FCS school and looks at Delaware, SFA and Missouri St. for possible replacements. Missouri St. reportedly wasn't interested last go around and ultimately Liberty (being on a bit of an island) pushes through the University of Delaware to get them back to 10 full members.

No other FBS conferences are in play.

Scenario B:
IF the PAC deal is not done (or is less than some of the schools wanted) then we may indeed have a lot of moving pieces.

Big 12 adds Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Arizona St to go to 16 becoming the 3rd Super Conference positioned well behind the Big 10 & SEC.

PAC invites San Diego St., Fresno St, Nevada and attempts to get SMU but with the 4 corner schools defecting SMU decides to stay put for now. Boise St. is reluctantly added to get back to ten full members.

MWC is now desperate to re-fill so they invite Hawaii to become a full member. They then add UTEP and NMSU from CUSA. Texas St., LA Tech, N. Texas and UTSA are also vetted but ultimately those schools decide to stay put. MWC is set a 10 full members for the foreseeable future.

CUSA having lost it's far western flank moves east vetting Missouri St., E. Kentucky, Delaware and UMass. Ultimately Delaware and UMass accept invites getting CUSA back to 10 full members.

No other FBS conferences are in play

LIKE Scenario A:
PAC stays together...adds San Diego St & Southern Methodist U...
>SDSU & SMU get reduced shares (50%) that will increase over time...shares increase incrementally every PAC media contract renewal...
(50% ===> 66%)
(66% ===> 75%)
(75% ===> 100%)

AAC adds Texas St...reinforces TX presence...leaves UTEP for MWC...
>Memphis blocks MTSU as long as it's in the AAC...
>GSU & FIU are optioned to add at a later date...as needed...

MWC adds UTEP...gets a toe into TX...
>New Mexico St. is optioned to add at a later date...if necessary...but unhappy with prospect...

CUSA loses UTEP...looks at UAC for FCS call ups...
>invites SFA/Tarleton/E. Kentucky from UAC...
>Delaware & Missouri St. are also possible replacement candidates.

LIKE Scenario B:
PAC deal loses 4Cs to Big 12...

PAC adds San Diego St...
IF SMU stays in AAC THEN PAC adds from MWC R1 institutions...
adds...
UNR
UNLV
USU
CSU
...to replace 4Cs schools...
IF PAC adds SMU THEN PAC adds from MWC R1 institutions...
adds...
Hawaii (FB Only)
USU
CSU
...to replace 4Cs schools...

MWC adds UTEP & NMSU from CUSA...
>invites Hawaii to become a full member...Hawaii declines...MWC full membership puts Hawaii in similar travel situation that they were in when Hawaii was in the WAC...that's why Hawaii opted for MWC FB Only & BWC Non-FB...looks for FCS call ups...
>adds Montana & Montana St. from BSC as full members...
>invites NDSU & SDSU from MVFC as FB Only...
...gets to 10 full members + FB Only member(s) for foreseeable future...

CUSA loses UTEP & NMSU...looks at UAC for FCS call ups...
>adds SFA & Tarleton from UAC...
>invites E. Kentucky from UAC...
>invites Missouri St. from MVC...
>Delaware & UMass. are options for later date...
...attempts to get to 12 but gets back to 10 full members...

Western Kentucky would block Eastern Kentucky from joining the CUSA.

If we lose TXST/GAST then staying at 12 is the right option so I give you kudos for that instead of having us add random schools to get back to a number we don't necessarily need.