(06-11-2023 11:46 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  While reading disdainful opinions of ACC schools from totally non-snobby fans of other programs is of course very enlightening, I confess I'm more interested in gathering information. In that quest, facts are even more enlightening. We have been given a fascinating set of them: the seven institutions on the list.

The list shows one school from South Carolina, two each from the states of Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. All public universities except for Miami, which is private.

Seven institutions have decided it's in their mutual interest to push on the ACC's GoR door. This has been actively discussed for some time. Six institutions have decided to act as part of a state pair.

North Carolina and NC State are two of the schools who are acting as a set. Arguing over 'whether' this is the case is pointless--the schools have already told us.

It's fair to say that, realistically, chances are better of NC State snagging a P2 call-up with North Carolina at the end of the day than of the Tar Heels going without a bid. So.

The question now is which P2 league is more likely to invite schools in paired sets. If you think on the basis of evidence that one P2 league is more likely to do this than another, you have clues about ultimate destinations.

About the bolded, I guess I am in the camp that sees relatively little value in NC State. As "bryanw95" noted, they do not fit the profile of the schools recently added by the B1G or SEC. IMO, Texas AM is not analogous to NC State, because Texas is so vast that TAMU, while clearly #2 to Texas, is/was effectively a flagship-equivalent. Kind of like how FSU is in relation to Florida.

I do think UNC is very valuable to the B1G or SEC, but IMO not enough to take NC State as a two-fer. I think Duke is more likely to find a home in the SEC or B1G than NC State. FWIW, I don't think VT will make the cut either.

Just MO. We'll see, maybe.

(06-11-2023 10:27 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 10:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 09:39 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 06:31 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 06:14 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  I think UVA is clearly the more likely to be sought. But I also think VT would deliver more TV dollars, and would better fit the SEC culture.

It's interesting, I think that we'll go after UVA simply to thwart the B1G, but if we have to "settle" for VT then it will feel kind of like a win. Which is very different from UNC/NC St. There's only one (public) school that matters in North Carolina.

You have obviously made up your mind about NC state. UNC is the top school and has a national following, I won't argue that at all, but I see a heck of a lot of support for NC state on a daily basis. IF NC state were to be invited to the SEC, with the benefits that come from being in that conference and time to integrate, I think you would be happily surprised with the program and the fan support.

I won't say it will never happen, but if UNC were to leave for the SEC/B1G without NC state having a spot in either (obviously the chances are vastly SEC over the B1G for the wolfpack) I will need a forklift to raise my jaw off the ground.

I have nothing at all against NC St. They're a strong school Academically and Athletically. However, they don't fit the mold of past SEC and B1G adds:

Penn St
Nebraska
Rutgers
Maryland
USC
UCLA

Arkansas
South Carolina
A&M
Missouri
OU
UT

All are flagships or flagship equivalents. Every B1G school was AAU at the time of the invite. NC State is not a flagship. They're not a flagship equivalent. They might not even be #2 in their own State. They're not AAU and very unlikely to get interest from the B1G, which leaves the SEC. For us, they're good but not so Elite in any sport that they can get by their shortcomings. It's probably easier to make a case for Duke if you want a 2nd NC school b/c they're all-time great in Basketball and Tier 1 in Academics, 2 things that the SEC could use more of. If we start looking at NC St-level schools then why wouldn't we look at 1/2 of the big 12?

UNC/Clemson/FSU are clearly good candidates for the P2. Miami and UVA decent candidates for the P2 and certainly either would be great to even out the numbers. VT is much more competitive with UVA in their state, it's reasonable to call them a co-flagship, and they'd make an excellent partner for UNC (as opposed to NC St, which gives you nothing that you don't already have with UNC). That's 6 ACC schools that are clearly more desirable than NC St.

Oh, one final nail in NC St's coffin: they've been last or next to last in athletic revenues in the ACC every year for the past 5 years.

I have nothing at all against NC St. They're a very good school, probably near the top of the list for the AAU, and they care a lot about sports and compete very well. They're just more of a Baylor, Ok St, TCU or Texas Tech level of program, and that type of program hasn't historically gotten a P2 invite.

edit: as for the "UNC leaving NC State behind" thing...UCLA left Cal. OU left OSU. A&M and then UT both left Texas Tech. Would the BoR really stop UNC from making an extra $30m++ per year? I think that they might if NC St was going to get dumped into the AAC or C-USA, but they'll have a soft landing spot in the rebuilt ACC, the big 12, or some combination of 2-3 of the M3. So it will be more like: "UNC can get $75m per year while NC St gets $45m per year, or they can both make $45m per year". At worst, the BoR would dump a tax on UNC like Cal's leeching off UCLA, but I think that even that is unlikely.

You are selling the Wolfpack short. They have the largest football fanbase in NC and have almost 10k more butts in seats than NC.

But where you are really selling them short is they are wanted by the other six M7 schools. The Magnificent Seven should have been named the Solidarity Seven. These seven schools have chosen who they prefer the SEC add. Note Duke, GT and Louisville did not make the cut. Now the eighth spot was held open for ND in case that is a possibility; therefore, if ND does not go with them, and more that likely they do not, one of those three schools with get the eighth spot. I think it will be GT. The SEC cannot allow the B1G into Atlanta.

About the bolded, IMO the M7's preferences do not matter vis-a-vias SEC decision making. I think the SEC is in a much stronger position than the M7, and the M7 has basically no leverage in a "well, if you want us you have to take all of us or we go to the B1G" scenario. I don't think the B1G will be susceptible to that either.

IMO, if the M7 said to the SEC "take all of us or we go to the B1G", the SEC would say "have fun in the B1G". And likewise, I don't think the B1G would cave on that either.

IMO, what binds the M7 together is they all think they have SEC or B1G possibilities, and want out of the GOR to test those waters. But with the possible exception of UNC and NC State, as individual schools, not as a collective. I think if any of the individual members got a solo B1G or SEC bid, they would drop the others like a hot potato and say "yes", with the only caveat being maybe a quick call to the other conference, the one they prefer, to see if they will counter. The possible exception being UNC and NC State, but IMO UNC will leave NC State behind too, as Oklahoma did to OK State.

Just MO.

(06-13-2023 08:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 10:27 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 10:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 09:39 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 06:31 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  It's interesting, I think that we'll go after UVA simply to thwart the B1G, but if we have to "settle" for VT then it will feel kind of like a win. Which is very different from UNC/NC St. There's only one (public) school that matters in North Carolina.

You have obviously made up your mind about NC state. UNC is the top school and has a national following, I won't argue that at all, but I see a heck of a lot of support for NC state on a daily basis. IF NC state were to be invited to the SEC, with the benefits that come from being in that conference and time to integrate, I think you would be happily surprised with the program and the fan support.

I won't say it will never happen, but if UNC were to leave for the SEC/B1G without NC state having a spot in either (obviously the chances are vastly SEC over the B1G for the wolfpack) I will need a forklift to raise my jaw off the ground.

I have nothing at all against NC St. They're a strong school Academically and Athletically. However, they don't fit the mold of past SEC and B1G adds:

Penn St
Nebraska
Rutgers
Maryland
USC
UCLA

Arkansas
South Carolina
A&M
Missouri
OU
UT

All are flagships or flagship equivalents. Every B1G school was AAU at the time of the invite. NC State is not a flagship. They're not a flagship equivalent. They might not even be #2 in their own State. They're not AAU and very unlikely to get interest from the B1G, which leaves the SEC. For us, they're good but not so Elite in any sport that they can get by their shortcomings. It's probably easier to make a case for Duke if you want a 2nd NC school b/c they're all-time great in Basketball and Tier 1 in Academics, 2 things that the SEC could use more of. If we start looking at NC St-level schools then why wouldn't we look at 1/2 of the big 12?

UNC/Clemson/FSU are clearly good candidates for the P2. Miami and UVA decent candidates for the P2 and certainly either would be great to even out the numbers. VT is much more competitive with UVA in their state, it's reasonable to call them a co-flagship, and they'd make an excellent partner for UNC (as opposed to NC St, which gives you nothing that you don't already have with UNC). That's 6 ACC schools that are clearly more desirable than NC St.

Oh, one final nail in NC St's coffin: they've been last or next to last in athletic revenues in the ACC every year for the past 5 years.

I have nothing at all against NC St. They're a very good school, probably near the top of the list for the AAU, and they care a lot about sports and compete very well. They're just more of a Baylor, Ok St, TCU or Texas Tech level of program, and that type of program hasn't historically gotten a P2 invite.

edit: as for the "UNC leaving NC State behind" thing...UCLA left Cal. OU left OSU. A&M and then UT both left Texas Tech. Would the BoR really stop UNC from making an extra $30m++ per year? I think that they might if NC St was going to get dumped into the AAC or C-USA, but they'll have a soft landing spot in the rebuilt ACC, the big 12, or some combination of 2-3 of the M3. So it will be more like: "UNC can get $75m per year while NC St gets $45m per year, or they can both make $45m per year". At worst, the BoR would dump a tax on UNC like Cal's leeching off UCLA, but I think that even that is unlikely.

You are selling the Wolfpack short. They have the largest football fanbase in NC and have almost 10k more butts in seats than NC.

But where you are really selling them short is they are wanted by the other six M7 schools. The Magnificent Seven should have been named the Solidarity Seven. These seven schools have chosen who they prefer the SEC add. Note Duke, GT and Louisville did not make the cut. Now the eighth spot was held open for ND in case that is a possibility; therefore, if ND does not go with them, and more that likely they do not, one of those three schools with get the eighth spot. I think it will be GT. The SEC cannot allow the B1G into Atlanta.

About the bolded, IMO the M7's preferences do not matter vis-a-vias SEC decision making. I think the SEC is in a much stronger position than the M7, and the M7 has basically no leverage in a "well, if you want us you have to take all of us or we go to the B1G" scenario. I don't think the B1G will be susceptible to that either.

IMO, if the M7 said to the SEC "take all of us or we go to the B1G", the SEC would say "have fun in the B1G". And likewise, I don't think the B1G would cave on that either.

IMO, what binds the M7 together is they all think they have SEC or B1G possibilities, and want out of the GOR to test those waters. But with the possible exception of UNC and NC State, as individual schools, not as a collective. I think if any of the individual members got a solo B1G or SEC bid, they would drop the others like a hot potato and say "yes", with the only caveat being maybe a quick call to the other conference, the one they prefer, to see if they will counter. The possible exception being UNC and NC State, but IMO UNC will leave NC State behind too, as Oklahoma did to OK State.

Just MO.

The only school, that at this point, has the option of the B1G or the SEC is Carolina.

(06-13-2023 08:09 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 08:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 10:27 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 10:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 09:39 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  You have obviously made up your mind about NC state. UNC is the top school and has a national following, I won't argue that at all, but I see a heck of a lot of support for NC state on a daily basis. IF NC state were to be invited to the SEC, with the benefits that come from being in that conference and time to integrate, I think you would be happily surprised with the program and the fan support.

I won't say it will never happen, but if UNC were to leave for the SEC/B1G without NC state having a spot in either (obviously the chances are vastly SEC over the B1G for the wolfpack) I will need a forklift to raise my jaw off the ground.

I have nothing at all against NC St. They're a strong school Academically and Athletically. However, they don't fit the mold of past SEC and B1G adds:

Penn St
Nebraska
Rutgers
Maryland
USC
UCLA

Arkansas
South Carolina
A&M
Missouri
OU
UT

All are flagships or flagship equivalents. Every B1G school was AAU at the time of the invite. NC State is not a flagship. They're not a flagship equivalent. They might not even be #2 in their own State. They're not AAU and very unlikely to get interest from the B1G, which leaves the SEC. For us, they're good but not so Elite in any sport that they can get by their shortcomings. It's probably easier to make a case for Duke if you want a 2nd NC school b/c they're all-time great in Basketball and Tier 1 in Academics, 2 things that the SEC could use more of. If we start looking at NC St-level schools then why wouldn't we look at 1/2 of the big 12?

UNC/Clemson/FSU are clearly good candidates for the P2. Miami and UVA decent candidates for the P2 and certainly either would be great to even out the numbers. VT is much more competitive with UVA in their state, it's reasonable to call them a co-flagship, and they'd make an excellent partner for UNC (as opposed to NC St, which gives you nothing that you don't already have with UNC). That's 6 ACC schools that are clearly more desirable than NC St.

Oh, one final nail in NC St's coffin: they've been last or next to last in athletic revenues in the ACC every year for the past 5 years.

I have nothing at all against NC St. They're a very good school, probably near the top of the list for the AAU, and they care a lot about sports and compete very well. They're just more of a Baylor, Ok St, TCU or Texas Tech level of program, and that type of program hasn't historically gotten a P2 invite.

edit: as for the "UNC leaving NC State behind" thing...UCLA left Cal. OU left OSU. A&M and then UT both left Texas Tech. Would the BoR really stop UNC from making an extra $30m++ per year? I think that they might if NC St was going to get dumped into the AAC or C-USA, but they'll have a soft landing spot in the rebuilt ACC, the big 12, or some combination of 2-3 of the M3. So it will be more like: "UNC can get $75m per year while NC St gets $45m per year, or they can both make $45m per year". At worst, the BoR would dump a tax on UNC like Cal's leeching off UCLA, but I think that even that is unlikely.

You are selling the Wolfpack short. They have the largest football fanbase in NC and have almost 10k more butts in seats than NC.

But where you are really selling them short is they are wanted by the other six M7 schools. The Magnificent Seven should have been named the Solidarity Seven. These seven schools have chosen who they prefer the SEC add. Note Duke, GT and Louisville did not make the cut. Now the eighth spot was held open for ND in case that is a possibility; therefore, if ND does not go with them, and more that likely they do not, one of those three schools with get the eighth spot. I think it will be GT. The SEC cannot allow the B1G into Atlanta.

About the bolded, IMO the M7's preferences do not matter vis-a-vias SEC decision making. I think the SEC is in a much stronger position than the M7, and the M7 has basically no leverage in a "well, if you want us you have to take all of us or we go to the B1G" scenario. I don't think the B1G will be susceptible to that either.

IMO, if the M7 said to the SEC "take all of us or we go to the B1G", the SEC would say "have fun in the B1G". And likewise, I don't think the B1G would cave on that either.

IMO, what binds the M7 together is they all think they have SEC or B1G possibilities, and want out of the GOR to test those waters. But with the possible exception of UNC and NC State, as individual schools, not as a collective. I think if any of the individual members got a solo B1G or SEC bid, they would drop the others like a hot potato and say "yes", with the only caveat being maybe a quick call to the other conference, the one they prefer, to see if they will counter. The possible exception being UNC and NC State, but IMO UNC will leave NC State behind too, as Oklahoma did to OK State.

Just MO.

The only school, that at this point, has the option of the B1G or the SEC is Carolina.

I agree. But schools tend to be more optimistic than me, LOL.

Two weeks ago, I would have said UNC and FSU, but FSU failing to get AAU membership IMO calls that in to question. I still think the B1G would take them, but it's not a sure thing like UNC is, IMO. Bottom line is that FSU, despite their national football brand, isn't a flagship and they aren't AAU, two things the B1G seems to care about, a lot.

The fact of the matter is that there are about 12 schools that the networks are actually paying for. ABC/ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX, they aren't bidding hundreds of millions of dollars to air Illinois-Indiana or South Carolina-Ole Miss. They are paying a premium so they can air Alabama-Texas or Ohio State-Michigan.

A few years ago, they came for the G5.

Now, they are coming for the P12, Big XII and ACC "leftovers."

In a few years, two things are going to happen if there is a P2 consolidation: 1) The networks are going to realize they are subsidizing about 2 dozen schools they don't care about AND 2) The dozen schools are going to realize that the networks have $1B or whatever to spend, and they are the only 12 schools worth any money at all. And at that point, they are going to come for the bottom of the B1G and SEC.

It's going to end in a P1. Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, USC. Texas A&M and Auburn will battle to see who is decent at the right time for the 12th spot.

That's my prediction. Those are the 12/13 teams that matter. Everyone else is "opponent."

(06-13-2023 08:32 AM)ccd494 Wrote:  The fact of the matter is that there are about 12 schools that the networks are actually paying for. ABC/ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX, they aren't bidding hundreds of millions of dollars to air Illinois-Indiana or South Carolina-Ole Miss. They are paying a premium so they can air Alabama-Texas or Ohio State-Michigan.

A few years ago, they came for the G5.

Now, they are coming for the P12, Big XII and ACC "leftovers."

In a few years, two things are going to happen if there is a P2 consolidation: 1) The networks are going to realize they are subsidizing about 2 dozen schools they don't care about AND 2) The dozen schools are going to realize that the networks have $1B or whatever to spend, and they are the only 12 schools worth any money at all. And at that point, they are going to come for the bottom of the B1G and SEC.

It's going to end in a P1. Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, USC. Texas A&M and Auburn will battle to see who is decent at the right time for the 12th spot.

That's my prediction. Those are the 12/13 teams that matter. Everyone else is "opponent."

That would be way too niche to survive for very long as a major pastime. Fans of those privileged schools would have to get used to smaller Saturday gatherings and fewer folks wanting to chat about college football. Next.

(06-13-2023 08:22 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 08:09 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 08:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 10:27 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 10:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I have nothing at all against NC St. They're a strong school Academically and Athletically. However, they don't fit the mold of past SEC and B1G adds:

Penn St
Nebraska
Rutgers
Maryland
USC
UCLA

Arkansas
South Carolina
A&M
Missouri
OU
UT

All are flagships or flagship equivalents. Every B1G school was AAU at the time of the invite. NC State is not a flagship. They're not a flagship equivalent. They might not even be #2 in their own State. They're not AAU and very unlikely to get interest from the B1G, which leaves the SEC. For us, they're good but not so Elite in any sport that they can get by their shortcomings. It's probably easier to make a case for Duke if you want a 2nd NC school b/c they're all-time great in Basketball and Tier 1 in Academics, 2 things that the SEC could use more of. If we start looking at NC St-level schools then why wouldn't we look at 1/2 of the big 12?

UNC/Clemson/FSU are clearly good candidates for the P2. Miami and UVA decent candidates for the P2 and certainly either would be great to even out the numbers. VT is much more competitive with UVA in their state, it's reasonable to call them a co-flagship, and they'd make an excellent partner for UNC (as opposed to NC St, which gives you nothing that you don't already have with UNC). That's 6 ACC schools that are clearly more desirable than NC St.

Oh, one final nail in NC St's coffin: they've been last or next to last in athletic revenues in the ACC every year for the past 5 years.

I have nothing at all against NC St. They're a very good school, probably near the top of the list for the AAU, and they care a lot about sports and compete very well. They're just more of a Baylor, Ok St, TCU or Texas Tech level of program, and that type of program hasn't historically gotten a P2 invite.

edit: as for the "UNC leaving NC State behind" thing...UCLA left Cal. OU left OSU. A&M and then UT both left Texas Tech. Would the BoR really stop UNC from making an extra $30m++ per year? I think that they might if NC St was going to get dumped into the AAC or C-USA, but they'll have a soft landing spot in the rebuilt ACC, the big 12, or some combination of 2-3 of the M3. So it will be more like: "UNC can get $75m per year while NC St gets $45m per year, or they can both make $45m per year". At worst, the BoR would dump a tax on UNC like Cal's leeching off UCLA, but I think that even that is unlikely.

You are selling the Wolfpack short. They have the largest football fanbase in NC and have almost 10k more butts in seats than NC.

But where you are really selling them short is they are wanted by the other six M7 schools. The Magnificent Seven should have been named the Solidarity Seven. These seven schools have chosen who they prefer the SEC add. Note Duke, GT and Louisville did not make the cut. Now the eighth spot was held open for ND in case that is a possibility; therefore, if ND does not go with them, and more that likely they do not, one of those three schools with get the eighth spot. I think it will be GT. The SEC cannot allow the B1G into Atlanta.

About the bolded, IMO the M7's preferences do not matter vis-a-vias SEC decision making. I think the SEC is in a much stronger position than the M7, and the M7 has basically no leverage in a "well, if you want us you have to take all of us or we go to the B1G" scenario. I don't think the B1G will be susceptible to that either.

IMO, if the M7 said to the SEC "take all of us or we go to the B1G", the SEC would say "have fun in the B1G". And likewise, I don't think the B1G would cave on that either.

IMO, what binds the M7 together is they all think they have SEC or B1G possibilities, and want out of the GOR to test those waters. But with the possible exception of UNC and NC State, as individual schools, not as a collective. I think if any of the individual members got a solo B1G or SEC bid, they would drop the others like a hot potato and say "yes", with the only caveat being maybe a quick call to the other conference, the one they prefer, to see if they will counter. The possible exception being UNC and NC State, but IMO UNC will leave NC State behind too, as Oklahoma did to OK State.

Just MO.

The only school, that at this point, has the option of the B1G or the SEC is Carolina.

I agree. But schools tend to be more optimistic than me, LOL.

Two weeks ago, I would have said UNC and FSU, but FSU failing to get AAU membership IMO calls that in to question. I still think the B1G would take them, but it's not a sure thing like UNC is, IMO. Bottom line is that FSU, despite their national football brand, isn't a flagship and they aren't AAU, two things the B1G seems to care about, a lot.

The State of FL is a trough system with a unique history that will increasingly favor the USF's and UCF's in the much bigger cities. FSU will benefit by being in the capital and to the immediate east of the panhandle poised for huge growth. It'll be the next AAU in FL (it was not anticipated this round btw). UF got a big head-start in the latter half of the last century. But it's location and the way the state university system is set up puts it in a fairly challenging position in terms of maintaining its relative status. It's not the biggest school in the state (UCF) nor the oldest (FSU) nor gets the most applicants (FSU) in recent years. FL will likely wind up more and more like CA with no clear-cut #1 in all things.

The 7 got what they wanted in revenue distribution. No one is going anywhere with the expanded playoff coming soon.

(06-13-2023 09:39 AM)ShakeNBake Wrote:  The 7 got what they wanted in revenue distribution. No one is going anywhere with the expanded playoff coming soon.

Has there been any forecast on what that might mean in $ for a team that makes a playoff run?

(06-13-2023 09:26 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 08:32 AM)ccd494 Wrote:  The fact of the matter is that there are about 12 schools that the networks are actually paying for. ABC/ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX, they aren't bidding hundreds of millions of dollars to air Illinois-Indiana or South Carolina-Ole Miss. They are paying a premium so they can air Alabama-Texas or Ohio State-Michigan.

A few years ago, they came for the G5.

Now, they are coming for the P12, Big XII and ACC "leftovers."

In a few years, two things are going to happen if there is a P2 consolidation: 1) The networks are going to realize they are subsidizing about 2 dozen schools they don't care about AND 2) The dozen schools are going to realize that the networks have $1B or whatever to spend, and they are the only 12 schools worth any money at all. And at that point, they are going to come for the bottom of the B1G and SEC.

It's going to end in a P1. Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, USC. Texas A&M and Auburn will battle to see who is decent at the right time for the 12th spot.

That's my prediction. Those are the 12/13 teams that matter. Everyone else is "opponent."

That would be way too niche to survive for very long as a major pastime. Fans of those privileged schools would have to get used to smaller Saturday gatherings and fewer folks wanting to chat about college football. Next.

I'm taking it in a different direction: those schools will broker their own football deals and play in any conference they want. It should have been done this way since the 50's, but the NCAA stepped in. Now? The NCAA doesn't have a say.

(06-13-2023 09:39 AM)ShakeNBake Wrote:  The 7 got what they wanted in revenue distribution. No one is going anywhere with the expanded playoff coming soon.

I think the revenue sharing is a band-aid, much like the promise of the ACCN was a band-aid six or seven years ago. IMO what the M7 really wanted was doing away with the GOR so they could have leaving options.

Sometimes band-aids work - the ACCN kept the grumbling at bay for several years, and revenue sharing might too - but IMO the deeper issue isn't going away. Yes, expanded playoff and distribution will bring in a lot more $$$ for everyone in the P2 and M3, but the relative $$$ gap will still be there, and IMO matter greatly.

We'll see.

(06-13-2023 10:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 09:39 AM)ShakeNBake Wrote:  The 7 got what they wanted in revenue distribution. No one is going anywhere with the expanded playoff coming soon.

I think the revenue sharing is a band-aid, much like the promise of the ACCN was a band-aid six or seven years ago. IMO what the M7 really wanted was doing away with the GOR so they could have leaving options.

Sometimes band-aids work - the ACCN kept the grumbling at bay for several years, and revenue sharing might too - but IMO the deeper issue isn't going away. Yes, expanded playoff and distribution will bring in a lot more $$$ for everyone in the P2 and M3, but the relative $$$ gap will still be there, and IMO matter greatly.

We'll see.

And, beyond that, there's the comparatively dull schedule and gameday environment for the non-P2. That has a significant financial impact too.

I agree that it doesn't seem likely to put a dent in the disparity. Even during a really good year for an ACC team. They wanted a way out and didn't find it yet.

(06-13-2023 08:32 AM)ccd494 Wrote:  The fact of the matter is that there are about 12 schools that the networks are actually paying for. ABC/ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX, they aren't bidding hundreds of millions of dollars to air Illinois-Indiana or South Carolina-Ole Miss. They are paying a premium so they can air Alabama-Texas or Ohio State-Michigan.

A few years ago, they came for the G5.

Now, they are coming for the P12, Big XII and ACC "leftovers."

In a few years, two things are going to happen if there is a P2 consolidation: 1) The networks are going to realize they are subsidizing about 2 dozen schools they don't care about AND 2) The dozen schools are going to realize that the networks have $1B or whatever to spend, and they are the only 12 schools worth any money at all. And at that point, they are going to come for the bottom of the B1G and SEC.

It's going to end in a P1. Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, USC. Texas A&M and Auburn will battle to see who is decent at the right time for the 12th spot.

That's my prediction. Those are the 12/13 teams that matter. Everyone else is "opponent."

College Football will die nationally if that happens. It'll become a SE regional sport

However even though I live in Florida, I won't watch it.

(06-13-2023 09:53 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 09:39 AM)ShakeNBake Wrote:  The 7 got what they wanted in revenue distribution. No one is going anywhere with the expanded playoff coming soon.

Has there been any forecast on what that might mean in $ for a team that makes a playoff run?

This article is dated from late last year.
https://businessofcollegesports.com/coll...20covered.

(06-13-2023 10:06 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 08:32 AM)ccd494 Wrote:  The fact of the matter is that there are about 12 schools that the networks are actually paying for. ABC/ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX, they aren't bidding hundreds of millions of dollars to air Illinois-Indiana or South Carolina-Ole Miss. They are paying a premium so they can air Alabama-Texas or Ohio State-Michigan.

A few years ago, they came for the G5.

Now, they are coming for the P12, Big XII and ACC "leftovers."

In a few years, two things are going to happen if there is a P2 consolidation: 1) The networks are going to realize they are subsidizing about 2 dozen schools they don't care about AND 2) The dozen schools are going to realize that the networks have $1B or whatever to spend, and they are the only 12 schools worth any money at all. And at that point, they are going to come for the bottom of the B1G and SEC.

It's going to end in a P1. Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, USC. Texas A&M and Auburn will battle to see who is decent at the right time for the 12th spot.

That's my prediction. Those are the 12/13 teams that matter. Everyone else is "opponent."

College Football will die nationally if that happens. It'll become a SE regional sport

However even though I live in Florida, I won't watch it.

I don't think it will happen, and even if it does, I don't think CFB dies.

CFB has IMO always been a sport of haves and have-nots. When I was growing up in the 1970s, it was Oklahoma, Nebraska, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, USC and Alabama battling for the national title every year, everyone else was kind of an "opponent" in that sense. Those schools got all the fame and media attention and top players. But CFB was still very popular and fans of "opponent" schools loved their teams and supported them.

If anything, IMO it has never been a better time to be a fan of a non-elite school, and I don't see that changing. If my USF had started a CFB team in 1972, we would have gone 20 years with nobody knowing who we were and with probably zero games on TV. Now, even stuck in the AAC purgatory, all of our games will be readily viewable on national TV.

IMO the existential threat to CFB is full professionalization, which I think is inevitable, and may turn fans of all schools off. We know how much support Triple-A baseball has.

(06-13-2023 10:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 10:06 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 08:32 AM)ccd494 Wrote:  The fact of the matter is that there are about 12 schools that the networks are actually paying for. ABC/ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX, they aren't bidding hundreds of millions of dollars to air Illinois-Indiana or South Carolina-Ole Miss. They are paying a premium so they can air Alabama-Texas or Ohio State-Michigan.

A few years ago, they came for the G5.

Now, they are coming for the P12, Big XII and ACC "leftovers."

In a few years, two things are going to happen if there is a P2 consolidation: 1) The networks are going to realize they are subsidizing about 2 dozen schools they don't care about AND 2) The dozen schools are going to realize that the networks have $1B or whatever to spend, and they are the only 12 schools worth any money at all. And at that point, they are going to come for the bottom of the B1G and SEC.

It's going to end in a P1. Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, USC. Texas A&M and Auburn will battle to see who is decent at the right time for the 12th spot.

That's my prediction. Those are the 12/13 teams that matter. Everyone else is "opponent."

College Football will die nationally if that happens. It'll become a SE regional sport

However even though I live in Florida, I won't watch it.

I don't think it will happen, and even if it does, I don't think CFB dies.

CFB has IMO always been a sport of haves and have-nots. When I was growing up in the 1970s, it was Oklahoma, Nebraska, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, USC and Alabama battling for the national title every year, everyone else was kind of an "opponent" in that sense. Those schools got all the fame and media attention and top players. But CF was still very popular and fans of "opponent" schools loved their teams and supported them.

IMO the existential threat to CFB is full professionalization, which I think is inevitable, and may turn fans of all schools off. We know how much support Triple-A baseball has.

Agreed I don't see it becoming one super league with 12 teams and X amount of Washington Generals.

I do see a breakoff happening within 10 years. Will is be 32, 48, 64 or 96 schools?

I think we'll see basketball become more valuable and in line with valuations back in the 80s again. Basketball has been subsidizing the NCAA for years.

(06-13-2023 10:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 10:06 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 08:32 AM)ccd494 Wrote:  The fact of the matter is that there are about 12 schools that the networks are actually paying for. ABC/ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX, they aren't bidding hundreds of millions of dollars to air Illinois-Indiana or South Carolina-Ole Miss. They are paying a premium so they can air Alabama-Texas or Ohio State-Michigan.

A few years ago, they came for the G5.

Now, they are coming for the P12, Big XII and ACC "leftovers."

In a few years, two things are going to happen if there is a P2 consolidation: 1) The networks are going to realize they are subsidizing about 2 dozen schools they don't care about AND 2) The dozen schools are going to realize that the networks have $1B or whatever to spend, and they are the only 12 schools worth any money at all. And at that point, they are going to come for the bottom of the B1G and SEC.

It's going to end in a P1. Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, USC. Texas A&M and Auburn will battle to see who is decent at the right time for the 12th spot.

That's my prediction. Those are the 12/13 teams that matter. Everyone else is "opponent."

College Football will die nationally if that happens. It'll become a SE regional sport

However even though I live in Florida, I won't watch it.

I don't think it will happen, and even if it does, I don't think CFB dies.

CFB has IMO always been a sport of haves and have-nots. When I was growing up in the 1970s, it was Oklahoma, Nebraska, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, USC and Alabama battling for the national title every year, everyone else was kind of an "opponent" in that sense. Those schools got all the fame and media attention and top players. But CFB was still very popular and fans of "opponent" schools loved their teams and supported them.

If anything, IMO it has never been a better time to be a fan of a non-elite school, and I don't see that changing. If my USF had started a CFB team in 1972, we would have gone 20 years with nobody knowing who we were and with probably zero games on TV. Now, even stuck in the AAC purgatory, all of our games will be readily viewable on national TV.

IMO the existential threat to CFB is full professionalization, which I think is inevitable, and may turn fans of all schools off. We know how much support Triple-A baseball has.

I'll likely tune out once it goes full pro (more power to them). Heck, I follow realignment with far more interest than the day-to-day of my teams (FSU and Mich). I glance at recruiting from time to time and of course watch the big games. But I couldn't name the roster like the old days and don't watch every game. My family doesn't care about it anything close to what I did growing up and it's just not a major focus anymore. I'm just a nudge away from dropping it cold turkey.

You all are talking in circles, see my last post. It's not a new concept and streaming makes it a lot easier.

(06-13-2023 10:06 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 08:32 AM)ccd494 Wrote:  The fact of the matter is that there are about 12 schools that the networks are actually paying for. ABC/ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX, they aren't bidding hundreds of millions of dollars to air Illinois-Indiana or South Carolina-Ole Miss. They are paying a premium so they can air Alabama-Texas or Ohio State-Michigan.

A few years ago, they came for the G5.

Now, they are coming for the P12, Big XII and ACC "leftovers."

In a few years, two things are going to happen if there is a P2 consolidation: 1) The networks are going to realize they are subsidizing about 2 dozen schools they don't care about AND 2) The dozen schools are going to realize that the networks have $1B or whatever to spend, and they are the only 12 schools worth any money at all. And at that point, they are going to come for the bottom of the B1G and SEC.

It's going to end in a P1. Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, USC. Texas A&M and Auburn will battle to see who is decent at the right time for the 12th spot.

That's my prediction. Those are the 12/13 teams that matter. Everyone else is "opponent."

College Football will die nationally if that happens. It'll become a SE regional sport

However even though I live in Florida, I won't watch it.

It's well on its way towards it. The northeast is gone. The west coast is next, particularly now that the rest of the Pac-12 doesn't have annual games with USC anymore.

(06-11-2023 07:02 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 06:31 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 06:14 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 05:04 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-11-2023 03:48 PM)XLance Wrote:  Uh-huh.

VT certainly seems to have more football enthusiasm, though it's hard to rank them ahead of UVA for Realignment purposes even so. One thing that I will say is that VT seems to be a whole lot stronger in Virginia than NC St is in North Carolina.

I think UVA is clearly the more likely to be sought. But I also think VT would deliver more TV dollars, and would better fit the SEC culture.

It's interesting, I think that we'll go after UVA simply to thwart the B1G, but if we have to "settle" for VT then it will feel kind of like a win. Which is very different from UNC/NC St. There's only one (public) school that matters in North Carolina.

FOOTBALL RISK

Wait till you roll a bunch ones on the dice.

The newer versions have actual players pictures for which they get NIL money.

QBs on the cannon cards, RBs on the cavalry cards, and linemen on the infantry.

If you are defending an SEC country you use four dice, three dice for the B1G, two dice for the ACC, BXII, and PAC, one die for the others, except for CUSA. If you are defending a CUSA country there are no dice rolls, and the owner goes and gets some more nachos and beer.

Nobody ever wins because they keep adding more countries.