(06-04-2023 11:12 AM)chargeradio Wrote: The Southland ought to sit back and wait for the WAC to get raided again. The worst case scenario for the WAC is the Pac-12 taking a significant portion of the Mountain West but not actually merging.
As an example:
Pac-12 loses 6 more schools by 2025 to Big 12, Big 10
Pac-12 adds Colorado State, Hawaii, UNLV, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah State, San Diego State, Fresno State (the first six are R1 institutions, San Diego State and Fresno are R2)
Mountain West adds New Mexico State, UTEP, Cal Poly, UC Davis, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Montana, Montana State
C-USA adds Stephen F. Austin and Tarleton State
Big Sky adds Southern Utah and Utah Tech
This puts the WAC and Summit both at 7 with Cal and Stanford in the heavily duct-taped PAC 12 looking to jump ship. The UAC would be down to 6 in football, with only 2 of those being from the WAC (Abilene Christian, UTRGV). I could see the Southland taking ACU and UTRGV. The Summit would take UT-Arlington, who would be the last remaining WAC member in Texas.
If the Pac-12 loses eight at the same time instead of six, I could see them taking Boise State and San Jose State from the Mountain West; the Mountain West taking Weber State and Sacramento State; and the Big Sky taking Seattle, Cal Baptist, Grand Canyon, and Utah Valley. The Southland takes ACU and UTRGV. The Summit takes UT-Arlington.
The UAC ends. With the OVC up to seven full members playing football, the ASUN football schools take the Big South football schools as affiliates.
SDSU currently qualifies as a Carnegie Classified R1 institution...they're in the process of getting reclassified to Carnegie R1...
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PAC adds MWC R1 Institutions (7) + Fresno State
*PAC loses USC/UCLA (2)
**SDSU & Fresno St. replace USC/UCLA
*PAC loses 4C schools (4)
**MWC remaining R1s replace 4Cs
*PAC adds CSU & UNM as insurance just in case Stanford & Cal defect...
*IF PAC loses more than that THEN they should just merge with the MWC under the PAC banner...
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MWC adds New Mexico State & UTEP from FBS...
adds MN, MN St., Sac. St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Weber State to get to 10...
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C-USA adds Stephen F. Austin and Tarleton State...
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BSC adds Southern UT, UT Tech, & UVU to get to 6 FB/ 1 Non FB members...
adds ACU, UTRGV, & UTA to get to 8 FB/ 2 Non FB members...
adds two (2) from Seattle/Cal Baptist/GCU to get to 8 FB/ 4 Non FB members...
WCC adds Cal Baptist/GCU to replace BYU...
*Gonzaga blocks Seattle as long as it's in the WCC...
*Cal Baptist balances WCC membership with (4) NorCal / (4) SoCal members...
*GCU can probably buy its way in...