(06-02-2023 11:15 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 10:55 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 10:32 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  The Big Ten won't make more money per school by bringing those schools in. They are already at a (huge) competitive disadvantage to their only rival conference, and aside from Oregon all of the schools you mentioned will only dilute the Big Ten's football product.

How are they at a huge competitive disadvantage? They both will have a comparable number of teams in a 12 team CFP. Who cares if the SEC's bottom is stronger than the B1G's bottom? They aren't drawing eyeballs or recruits from the top teams.

Seriously?

The SEC has won six national titles by three programs since the Big Ten's last national championship, and eight more championship's since the Big Ten's last before that.

Since the last time a team other than Ohio State has won the national title, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia have all won one -- as have Oklahoma and Texas.

This can't be stressed enough. As a TV ratings product and as a financial enterprise the Big Ten is a power conference. But as far as actually winning championships, there's a P1. The last non-Ohio St Big Ten national champion was quarterbacked by Brian Griese. And before that 1997 Michigan team you have to go all the way back to 1970 for a Big Ten national title.

I'm sure B1G apologists blame that 1970-1997 gap on the Rose Bowl being cordoned off from the rest of the bowl system. Well 97 was the last year of the old setup. Smaller schools can gripe about the unfairness of the BCS or CFP but both systems should've been tailor made for Big Ten titles and all they've seen are two OSU wins.

(06-02-2023 10:32 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  and aside from Oregon all of the schools you mentioned will only dilute the Big Ten's football product.

What?

(06-02-2023 10:32 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 10:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Here's the other thing, if the B1G knows CU will go to the Big 12, why not undercut the Big 12 and work out a deal and bring in UO UW CU ASU at reduced shares. Stanford or Cal could be included as well. That's 21 potential schools and still leaves room for eastern expansion in 2030 (FSU Miami ND potentially).

Of course, they may not value CU and would rather take Cal. Either way, the payouts for these schools are not going to exceed 40 million even in the B1G, should they jump to 20+ schools.

Here's my question with all of this: Why bother?

The Big Ten won't make more money per school by bringing those schools in. They are already at a (huge) competitive disadvantage to their only rival conference, and aside from Oregon all of the schools you mentioned will only dilute the Big Ten's football product.

So how about they just stay at 16? Or maybe wait ten years before they add Oregon and Miami or Florida State? The Big Ten is holding Golden Tickets right now and they have no reason to dole them out if it doesn't actually help their current member institutions.

For some of the same reasons that the ACC7 are unsettled. There are a bunch of changes coming down the pike in 2024/25. The upcoming CFP being one of them.

Plus, the PAC situation really is a guilty opportunity - no exit fee and in between media deals? We aren't likely to see a situation quite like this again any time soon.

I don't think the Big10 wants everybody, which is why I think they seem to have the idea of Washington and Oregon on pause.

(For one thing, if Oregon finds itself in the Syracuse AAU situation, does the Big10 still invite them, like Nebraska? And if not, what does that mean for Washington? We have news that both schools have been vetted. So it all seems up in the air at the moment.)

But in the meantime, the Big10 could take a couple PAC schools and then wait for the ACC situation to continue to develop.

(06-02-2023 10:32 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  Here's my question with all of this: Why bother?

The Big Ten won't make more money per school by bringing those schools in. They are already at a (huge) competitive disadvantage to their only rival conference, and aside from Oregon all of the schools you mentioned will only dilute the Big Ten's football product.

So how about they just stay at 16? Or maybe wait ten years before they add Oregon and Miami or Florida State? The Big Ten is holding Golden Tickets right now and they have no reason to dole them out if it doesn't actually help their current member institutions.

Because three divisions (NFL style) makes a lot more sense than protected rivals, and playing every other conference member every 2-3 years. No biggy if west coast teams play east coast teams every 3-4 years instead. At least for scheduling purposes, it makes sense. The only issue with that is deciding who plays in the CCG without a mini-conference playoff.

(06-02-2023 12:18 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  The Big10's been trying to keep their cards to their chest, but I think the AAU announcement may well have tipped their hand.

Miami being now in the AAU, is likely headed to the Big10, and I don't think they're waiting 13 years to do so.

But we're all going to have to wait while the ACC situation continues to unfold

In the meantime, I think the Big10 will add 2 schools.

The Big10
Arizona State and Colorado

AZ State becoming AAU just rings alarm bells. There's would seem to be a plan here. I think this was done to make USC happy.

This solves some of the "southern California island" issues, and makes them all contiguous, while adding two new states/markets, full of Big10 alumni. All while not infringing on recruitment, which adding more west coast schools would. And this also leaves the PAC (mostly) intact.

The 8 remaining PAC schools add SDSU for 9, and call it good.

And everything else will be on hold waiting for the ACC.

I don't think there is anything currently out there - even USF, Kansas, or Texas Tech - where the SEC is going to act before seeing how the ACC situation plays out.

And once it does, I think the Big10 goes for Miami and GT. (Both being AAU schools.)

VA/NC/Duke, and FSU, are question marks, as I think the SEC wants them as well.

Whatever happens, it should be interesting : )

You deserve credit as I think you've been pushing ASU for a minute now. Now they've cleared that "necessary" hurdle.

(06-02-2023 10:48 AM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 10:32 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  The Big Ten won't make more money per school by bringing those schools in. ...

The Big Ten is holding Golden Tickets right now and they have no reason to dole them out if it doesn't actually help their current member institutions.

To my eye only one school is "the juice worth the squeeze", is what they bring worth a full share.

B1G has the golden tickets; the team worth the squeeze ... wears golden domes.

Tell me any other school with positive ROI to the B1G immediately upon admission.

I think that they're gonna have to figure out a way for ND to have at least the veneer of independence to achieve that.

I think it's do-able though.

I said this in another thread. If ND is given an option that also available to all other Big10 members (need to keep everyone happy and feeling like it's "fair"), then I think it's possible.

One way to do that could be to have a "pre-negotiation" window, where any school in the Big10 can try to get an independent media contract, and if they do, they can be "independent" in football for the duration of that contract (with a minimum number of games to the conference). And if they don't by the deadline, then they join the conference media deal.

This should also make Ohio state or others happy, because they could also go independent if they wanted to. But they can also say that, no, they didn't because of x y and z. Options.

The way forward is to give everyone an option. If they try to just have it with ND getting special treatment, I doubt that that will get the votes.

(06-02-2023 09:25 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  FSU and Miami

Secure the Florida Market and fix the November Primetime issue

No, they need Colorado to get some Prime time.

(06-02-2023 10:08 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 10:05 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  And let Notre Dame toss the bird to The Big Ten… again.
The Irish will remain independent until it’s untenable to do so.

I’ve followed Notre Dame since the 1960’s and I have always had the impression the Irish would join a conference kicking and screaming.
Terry would have to confirm if that’s changed or not.

At the point Notre Dame joins a conference, college football may as well be the NFL. What the Irish have is so special and wonderful; I can't imagine they ever let it go.

Yeah, it's special and wonderful that they get all the benefits of being in a conference but only have to play 5 Conference games most years. I hope their situation continues indefinitely b/c it thwarts the B1G's aims, but I also hope that they continue to be money-starved and they keep losing people to better-funded SEC schools.

Highly doubtful that the B1G will expand anytime soon. They needed a move to counter the SEC's additions of Oklahoma and Texas. USC and UCLA was a very bold and big time addition to solidify their status as a P2, as opposed to the system being SEC + the other 4.

(06-02-2023 10:13 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 09:25 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  FSU and Miami

Secure the Florida Market and fix the November Primetime issue

FSU will be in the SEC by 2030 at latest. And the AAU around the same time if not sooner than that.

Both of those are speculative at best. FSU tried to escape this spring and all it got them was a +/- $5m pay change for a decade. The only way FSU is in the SEC by 2030 is if every party involved wants it. That means the ACC, FSU, the SEC, and ESPN all have to be in agreement that it's best for all of them. COULD taht happen by 2030? Absolutely. SHOULD it happen b/c it's in the best interest of all parties? I don't think so. It's in the ACC's and FSU's best interest, but the SEC and ESPN will be happy to wait until 2034 I suspect. As we've seen with our spring meetings this year, we already have a whole lot of Chiefs in the room, and getting everybody on the same page then turning to further expansion will probably need to wait a bit. ESPN has their own problems now and Magnus has come out forcefully in favor of keeping the status quo in the ACC.

As for the AAU? If you guys are in by 2025 I won't be surprised, and if you're still not in by 2045 I also won't be surprised.

(06-02-2023 12:23 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 10:13 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 09:25 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  FSU and Miami

Secure the Florida Market and fix the November Primetime issue

FSU will be in the SEC by 2030 at latest. And the AAU around the same time if not sooner than that.

Both of those are speculative at best. FSU tried to escape this spring and all it got them was a +/- $5m pay change for a decade. The only way FSU is in the SEC by 2030 is if every party involved wants it. That means the ACC, FSU, the SEC, and ESPN all have to be in agreement that it's best for all of them. COULD taht happen by 2030? Absolutely. SHOULD it happen b/c it's in the best interest of all parties? I don't think so. It's in the ACC's and FSU's best interest, but the SEC and ESPN will be happy to wait until 2034 I suspect. As we've seen with our spring meetings this year, we already have a whole lot of Chiefs in the room, and getting everybody on the same page then turning to further expansion will probably need to wait a bit. ESPN has their own problems now and Magnus has come out forcefully in favor of keeping the status quo in the ACC.

As for the AAU? If you guys are in by 2025 I won't be surprised, and if you're still not in by 2045 I also won't be surprised.

Barring an AI event, I'd put the bolded portion as highly unlikely. 2025 may be too soon between adding so many to the AAU this year and the anticipated growth of FSU's research expenditures. That's just 2 years away. I'd peg it by the late 2020's. And if you told me FSU only achieves ONE of the two (P2 or AAU)...I'd bet heavily on AAU. It's THE current supreme goal of the university and it wants to earn it.

(06-02-2023 10:32 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 10:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Here's the other thing, if the B1G knows CU will go to the Big 12, why not undercut the Big 12 and work out a deal and bring in UO UW CU ASU at reduced shares. Stanford or Cal could be included as well. That's 21 potential schools and still leaves room for eastern expansion in 2030 (FSU Miami ND potentially).

Of course, they may not value CU and would rather take Cal. Either way, the payouts for these schools are not going to exceed 40 million even in the B1G, should they jump to 20+ schools.

Here's my question with all of this: Why bother?

The Big Ten won't make more money per school by bringing those schools in. They are already at a (huge) competitive disadvantage to their only rival conference, and aside from Oregon all of the schools you mentioned will only dilute the Big Ten's football product.

So how about they just stay at 16? Or maybe wait ten years before they add Oregon and Miami or Florida State? The Big Ten is holding Golden Tickets right now and they have no reason to dole them out if it doesn't actually help their current member institutions.

All of the above is accurate. Additionally, half of the 14 decision-makers in the B1G are changing over a 2 year period, and every one of them thinks that HE/SHE has the right answer to Realignment. They're 14 cats with no cat-herder. Delaney struggled mightily to corral them, but his influence has significantly waned, and will be nearly non-existent soon. Heck, as unified as the SEC is on most issues, even we couldn't figure out how to go from 8 to 9 games the other day. And that was with only our 14 current members voting, and our very powerful Commissioner advocating for a losing proposition.

From the outside, it looks like the P2 offer Golden Tickets. From the inside, it looks like adding more schools just further-dilutes your own voice on conference matters, so any new schools had better bring a whole lot of money/prestige/Academic status/etc etc or they're not worth a vote.

In addition to the public statements in last year re: Washington and Oregon and Big Ten, we have the recent ACC 7 plus Louisville noise, the Colorado and UConn smoke, and now the AAU news, how about this:

Big Ten (24) adds: Washington, Oregon, ASU, Stanford, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech
SEC (20) adds: Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (20): Colorado, Arizona, Louisville, Pitt, Duke, Syracuse, Boston College, UConn

This realignment provides a home for all ACC schools except Wake Forest.

Notre Dame Olympics to Big East or Big 12.

ESPN, SEC, AND THE BIG 12
ESPN shifts $430M per year from its ACC contracts plus the $90M it was willing to pay the PAC 12 to fund the SEC move and the additional Big 12 expansion. $520M.

FSU, Clemson, NC State, VA Tech X $65M each = $260M
Colorado, Arizona, Louisville, Pitt, Duke, Syracuse, BC, UConn X $32M each = $256
$260M + $256M = $516M

ESPN enhances both its SEC and Big 12 inventory and adds late-night content.

FOX, AMAZON, AND THE BIG TEN
FOX and Amazon fund the Big Ten moves. The new PAC and ACC schools help to solve the FOX primetime and November scheduling problem, FOX gets additional quality content, and Amazon gets the big splash inventory it seeks. Perhaps Amazon gets Big Ten Friday Night and some streaming content, FOX gets Big Ten Thursday Night and some FS1 games. Plenty of quality games from the new additions for the fourth and fifth weekly picks for Amazon and FOX.

Washington, Oregon, ASU, Stanford, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech x$65M each = $520M

Because ESPN funds the Big 12 additional expansion, FOX has available funds for additional Big Ten content...and, remember, Amazon was willing to pay more than the $350M that CBS and NBC are each paying, so a deal works where Amazon contributes around $375M and FOX contributes an additional $150M or so.

(06-02-2023 12:19 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 10:08 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 10:05 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  And let Notre Dame toss the bird to The Big Ten… again.
The Irish will remain independent until it’s untenable to do so.

I’ve followed Notre Dame since the 1960’s and I have always had the impression the Irish would join a conference kicking and screaming.
Terry would have to confirm if that’s changed or not.

At the point Notre Dame joins a conference, college football may as well be the NFL. What the Irish have is so special and wonderful; I can't imagine they ever let it go.

Yeah, it's special and wonderful that they get all the benefits of being in a conference but only have to play 5 Conference games most years. I hope their situation continues indefinitely b/c it thwarts the B1G's aims, but I also hope that they continue to be money-starved and they keep losing people to better-funded SEC schools.

Notre Dame doesn't get to play in the ACC championship game forfeiting the opportunity to have a bye in the first round of the 12-school playoff. Notre Dame was going to fill its schedule with power schools regardless of the 5-game deal with the ACC. The ACC was able to secure games with the Irish. The relationship has always leaned much heavier towards the Irish at no fault of Notre Dame.

(06-02-2023 01:38 PM)YNot Wrote:  In addition to the public statements in last year re: Washington and Oregon and Big Ten, we have the recent ACC 7 plus Louisville noise, the Colorado and UConn smoke, and now the AAU news, how about this:

Big Ten (24) adds: Washington, Oregon, ASU, Stanford, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech
SEC (20) adds: Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (20): Colorado, Arizona, Louisville, Pitt, Duke, Syracuse, Boston College, UConn

This realignment provides a home for all ACC schools except Wake Forest.

Notre Dame Olympics to Big East or Big 12.

ESPN, SEC, AND THE BIG 12
ESPN shifts $430M per year from its ACC contracts plus the $90M it was willing to pay the PAC 12 to fund the SEC move and the additional Big 12 expansion. $520M.

FSU, Clemson, NC State, VA Tech X $65M each = $260M
Colorado, Arizona, Louisville, Pitt, Duke, Syracuse, BC, UConn X $32M each = $256
$260M + $256M = $516M

ESPN enhances both its SEC and Big 12 inventory and adds late-night content.

FOX, AMAZON, AND THE BIG TEN
FOX and Amazon fund the Big Ten moves. The new PAC and ACC schools help to solve the FOX primetime and November scheduling problem, FOX gets additional quality content, and Amazon gets the big splash inventory it seeks. Perhaps Amazon gets Big Ten Friday Night and some streaming content, FOX gets Big Ten Thursday Night and some FS1 games. Plenty of quality games from the new additions for the fourth and fifth weekly picks for Amazon and FOX.

Washington, Oregon, ASU, Stanford, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech x$65M each = $520M

Because ESPN funds the Big 12 additional expansion, FOX has available funds for additional Big Ten content...and, remember, Amazon was willing to pay more than the $350M that CBS and NBC are each paying, so a deal works where Amazon contributes around $375M and FOX contributes an additional $150M or so.

There is almost zero chance ESPN goes along with that. The status quo is far better for them. UNC needs to be in the SEC for starters.

(06-02-2023 01:38 PM)YNot Wrote:  In addition to the public statements in last year re: Washington and Oregon and Big Ten, we have the recent ACC 7 plus Louisville noise, the Colorado and UConn smoke, and now the AAU news, how about this:

Big Ten (24) adds: Washington, Oregon, ASU, Stanford, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech
SEC (20) adds: Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (20): Colorado, Arizona, Louisville, Pitt, Duke, Syracuse, Boston College, UConn

This realignment provides a home for all ACC schools except Wake Forest.

Notre Dame Olympics to Big East or Big 12.

ESPN, SEC, AND THE BIG 12
ESPN shifts $430M per year from its ACC contracts plus the $90M it was willing to pay the PAC 12 to fund the SEC move and the additional Big 12 expansion. $520M.

FSU, Clemson, NC State, VA Tech X $65M each = $260M
Colorado, Arizona, Louisville, Pitt, Duke, Syracuse, BC, UConn X $32M each = $256
$260M + $256M = $516M

ESPN enhances both its SEC and Big 12 inventory and adds late-night content.

FOX, AMAZON, AND THE BIG TEN
FOX and Amazon fund the Big Ten moves. The new PAC and ACC schools help to solve the FOX primetime and November scheduling problem, FOX gets additional quality content, and Amazon gets the big splash inventory it seeks. Perhaps Amazon gets Big Ten Friday Night and some streaming content, FOX gets Big Ten Thursday Night and some FS1 games. Plenty of quality games from the new additions for the fourth and fifth weekly picks for Amazon and FOX.

Washington, Oregon, ASU, Stanford, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech x$65M each = $520M

Because ESPN funds the Big 12 additional expansion, FOX has available funds for additional Big Ten content...and, remember, Amazon was willing to pay more than the $350M that CBS and NBC are each paying, so a deal works where Amazon contributes around $375M and FOX contributes an additional $150M or so.

Interesting ideas.

I'm going to suggest shifting it slightly. Let's go to 22 each, which leaves room for more additions later. And also that the PAC survives this round:

Big Ten (22) adds: ASU, Colorado, Stanford, Miami, Virginia, Georgia Tech
SEC (22) adds: Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (20): Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, Memphis, Tulane, USF, SMU (plus, possibly, a few other non-fbs schools, like Gonzaga, St Mary's, or Wichita State)
PAC (8): WA, WSU, OR, OSU, Cal, Utah, AZ, SDSU (plus 4 AAU BigWest Cal schools to get to 12)

This also resolves most of the G5 regular suspects.

BC could replace UConn in the BigEast. WF probably joins ECU in the AAC.

My guess is that the B10 stays at 16 until the acc breaks up. Then they try and make a play for UNC/uva/fsu/ND and see if any of them are interested. I think if the B10 wanted any pac or B12 schools, they'd have them already.

(06-02-2023 02:37 PM)Hootyhoo Wrote:  My guess is that the B10 stays at 16 until the acc breaks up. Then they try and make a play for UNC/uva/fsu/ND and see if any of them are interested. I think if the B10 wanted any pac or B12 schools, they'd have them already.

Everyone's waiting on the media deal details...

(06-02-2023 11:15 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 10:55 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-02-2023 10:32 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  The Big Ten won't make more money per school by bringing those schools in. They are already at a (huge) competitive disadvantage to their only rival conference, and aside from Oregon all of the schools you mentioned will only dilute the Big Ten's football product.

How are they at a huge competitive disadvantage? They both will have a comparable number of teams in a 12 team CFP. Who cares if the SEC's bottom is stronger than the B1G's bottom? They aren't drawing eyeballs or recruits from the top teams.

Seriously?

The SEC has won six national titles by three programs since the Big Ten's last national championship, and eight more championship's since the Big Ten's last before that.

Since the last time a team other than Ohio State has won the national title, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia have all won one -- as have Oklahoma and Texas.

Also Clemson and FSU. The B1G is 1 Brand and 13 little sisters of the poor.

LOL the B1G is not adding ASU now that ASU is an AAU school. With that logic, the B1G should just go full death star and add the entire PAC save for WSU and OSU.