Skyhawk
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RE: The next dominoes (May 25 edition)
(05-25-2023 10:47 PM)Ned Low Wrote: (05-25-2023 10:06 PM)Skyhawk Wrote: (05-25-2023 09:40 PM)Ned Low Wrote: I'll play...
(1) The PAC media deal comes in lower than the conference's members thought they would. Much lower in fact. As a result, the 4Cs go to the B12. Surprisingly, the B12 also invites Oregon State and Washington State; they accept.
(2) The B10 invites Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford. They accept.
(3) The B12 invites SDSU and Memphis at reduced shares for the time being. Both accept. The B12 stops at 20... for now.
(4) Fast forward a few years: The SEC invites UNC, Clemson, Florida State and Miami. They stop at 20 because...
(5) UVA announces that they are going to the B10 along with Duke. It seems as if the B10 can't get out of it's own way when they invite UConn (so they can win another Natty in basketball, finally). To top things off, they invite Kansas -also because of basketball- to get to 24 teams even. The B10 stops.
(6) The B12 responds by taking Pitt, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. The B12 picks GT to keep Central Florida in the fold and happy, as they want to maintain a presence in FL. In addition, they surprisingly take Colorado State, as the western bulk of the conference wants to avoid more travel across the country.
(7) The remaining ACC members are Syracuse, BC, NCSU and Wake Forest. Syracuse decides to re-join the BE and go indy in football. Boston College is not invited back... because the entirety of the Big East old-guard hates them.
(8) Notre Dame announces that they are going to the Big East for Olympic sports. The Big East stops at 12 teams.
(9) Wake Forest and NCSU hold their noses and join The American, albeit with a crap ton of cash from the departing members of the (former) ACC.
(10) The American -now at 15 teams after Memphis bolted for the B12- adds Texas State, Air Force and Army. They then decide to add JMU and ODU to get into the state of Virginia. Many push for App to get in as well but they don't... yet.
(11) The Sunbelt responds by adding La Tech. They stay at 14.
(12) The MWC responds to the defections of SDSU and Colorado State by adding UTEP and NMSU.
(13) The MAC and CUSA moves to FCS. Liberty tries to go indy at the FBS level but struggles to book a full schedule each year. As a result, they go to FCS as well.
I think Most of that is plausible, save 1 thing.
UConn is unlikely to the Big10.
Swap in Miami to the Big10, and then NC state to the SEC, and I think that could work very well.
Thanks. This was off the top of my head. I am full of it on this post, just playing the game.
However, Miami will not be in the B10. I just don't ever see it. I don't think that the B10 presidents would want to associate with Miami's athletics for perceived reputational reasons.
I also think that the SEC is smarter when it comes to realignment. They would be smart enough to recognize the benefits of essentially controlling the state of Florida and while it's not a great cultural fit, Miami could be a big hit in the SEC. They would certainly add academically to the conference and they are located in a recruiting hotbed.
With regards to NCSU, I agree that they would be a good fit in the SEC... but the truth is that in this state (I live here) UNC controls about 45% of the fandom. NCSU has about 25%, followed by ECU at about 15% and App at probably about 5-10% (the rest are dispersed among various other teams); NCSU just does not carry enough of the state by themselves to warrant an add... unless they are paired with UNC.
In short, if a conference gets UNC they get most of what's "gettable" in NC and more importantly they would not diminish their return on investment.
In truth, I don't think that Duke even has the lion's share of fans in Durham County. What Duke does have is a large national following and a ton of "casual fans", hence the reason they would be a good add for the B10. While I think that they could work in the SEC, I see them being a better fit in the B10 for a myriad of reasons. Same goes for UVA.
Both Kansas and UConn have storied basketball programs and that's certainly an area that the B10 needs some help in at the moment. They both also have good reputations academically. That's why I threw them in there.
Lastly, I do think that the end goal of the P2 is to whittle the number of "FBS" programs down to as low as possible. What that number is I don't know but I don't see it going much below 100 or so teams. The MAC would be much better off in FCS and I don't think that Liberty would be able to put together a full FBS schedule together every year in the coming years as conferences focus more on in-conference play. That and the fact that they can literally outspend many G5 programs (and some P5 programs) could scare many teams off while also making it hard for them to land in a conference.
UMass just needs to go back to FCS. They were able to compete there and my hunch is that they will eventually do it.
The reason I suggested Miami is that we've heard reporting that the Big10 is/was is discussion with FSU and Miami, because they want to be in Florida.
And of the 2, I think FSU is more likely to the SEC and Miami to the Big10. More about "fit", I think, than on the field prowess.
And looking closer at the rest, I think Kansas and NC could go to either conference, but I think NC probably leans more towards SEC, and Kansas more towards the Big10. But they could go either way.
NC State is a large school with strong academics (a "near-AAU" school). I haven't been able to find it recently, but I remember Delany talking about the possibility, if necessary, of taking all 4 schools, if that's what it took to get NC (VA, NC, NC State, Duke). I wonder if any of them are looking back and regretting saying no to that (both on the Big10 side and the ACC side).
And If we want to throw in another curve-ball, I think the Big10 could well add Colorado instead of California. I understand the draw of academics, but in this specific case, I think that just about everything else suggests that Colorado would be the better choice.
And we never know... When all is said and done, it would be funny to see other schools' faces if the Big10 added Buffalo. lol
But a lot of this is just flip a coin, based upon circumstances of the moment, and however the schools' leadership teams are "getting along" with others.
So who knows.
Regardless, nice breakdown : )
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