The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
The Pac-12 still does not have a TV contract, but Kliavkoff has made at least one statement recently that makes me think expansion has less than a 50% chance of happening. At this point, I am starting to buy into the narrative that schools like Stanford, Cal, and Washington do not want to dilute their academic brands and rub shoulders with Cal state schools like SDSU or a private school from Texas like SMU.
I also point back to stugray's observation that leagues usually expand before they announce a TV deal. Therefore, I think the Pac-12 stays put at 10.
With Kevin Warren going to the NFL, the Big 10's biggest cheerleader for expansion is gone. I expect the Big 10 to stay at 16 for the time being.
Both the ACC and SEC are in a holding pattern until the 2030s.
I do think the Big 12 will add Gonzaga once the Pac-12 gets its TV deal as the four corner schools will be locked in for the time being (not that they are going anywhere anyway as long as Washington and Oregon stay around). Adding the Zags gives the league another national brand and will possibly lead the league to go to a 20-game conference schedule to be on par with the Big 10, ACC, and Big East.
With Gonzaga out of the mix, the Big East likely has no need to expand as there is no great candidate remaining.
With there being no movement among FBS P5 football schools, the MW, AAC, Sun Belt, and MAC stay put.
There has been recent news about C-USA potentially adding FCS football-only programs. I believe the league adds NDSU and SDSU as football-only additions. This would allow the FCS powerhouses the opportunity to stay in the Summit league for Olympic sports, move up to FBS, and helps C-USA gain at least one program that could have the brand recognition and sporting ability to fight for a playoff spot a few years down the line.
This would leave the Missouri Valley Football Conference with 10 schools, but that is a stable number for FCS so the league stays put.
With the exodus of Gonzaga, the WCC will look to expand. I'm starting to think they will simply go back to 9 members. This will keep the 16-game schedule without diluting the league too much. I ultimately think team #9 will be Grand Canyon.
The WAC is a league that just won't die but its FBS aspirations with the A-Sun will. I don't see the merged football league making it to the promised land. When the dust settles, I see the WAC adding Central Arkansas to get to 7 football members and adding Little Rock to get to 12 schools overall and as a travel buddy for the former. At this point, 7 of 12 overall schools and 5 of 7 football football schools will be in Texas and Arkansas. The league's eastward movement is a life-saver.
I have no doubt there is a battle of wills going on between the CAA and Southern, but ultimately neither will be able to raid the other.
Both the Big West and Summit decide to stand pat as well.
So do the America East, Big Sky, and Patriot.
The Horizon league decides to get into the action to get back to 12: it selects...Morehead State, the best remaining brand in the OVC. (You were thinking I was going to say Bellarmine.) Morehead State is a public school with a decent basketball tradition and non-scholarship football in the Pioneer.
The MAAC is sitting at 11 and has mentioned it would like to get to 12. Wagner fits the bill. The school would put its football into the Big South-OVC alliance.
The SWAC decides to get into the action by adding Tennessee State to get to 13 schools. The league capitalizes on the instability of the OVC to get it done.
The NEC is down to 8 schools after losing Wagner and makes a defensive move by adding Le Moyne, a Division 2 institution.
The MEAC attempts to add some Division 2 institutions but none can make the financial commitments, the league decides to stay at 8.
Queens looks around and realizes the geography and predominantly basketball focus of the Big South is a better fit and makes a move to that league. The Big South would now be at 10 schools.
The Southland, still at 10 schools, takes a breath as no one touched it and decides to stay at 10.
This is where things get weird: the A-Sun is down to 9 schools (3 football) and the OVC is down to 7 schools (5 football + 5 affiliates). The A-Sun has the numerical advantage, but the OVC has more football stability as I believe the A-SUN/WAC marriage fails after the WAC grabs Central Arkansas.
So what happens? I think a deal is made: the A-Sun agrees not to raid the OVC while the OVC/Big South agrees to take in the three remaining three A-Sun football programs for a 13-team football league. But wait there's more....
The A-Sun adds West Florida to get back to 10 schools, and UWF gets an invite into the hybrid football league to get it up to an even 14.
The OVC is still at 7 schools. UIndy decides to make the move up, and the league begrudgingly adds Chicago State to get to 9.
That leaves us with 365 Division 1 schools, 136 FBS schools, and we keep 32 conferences.
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