The unofficial online home for fans of the UAB Blazers. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

While poring over the numbers amid my butthurt last night, I came across the following resource. Behold!

https://barttorvik.com/net4cast.php

This site uses the analytics thus far to forecast final regular season results. Looking at the top three teams in CUSA, the projected final NET rankings going into Frisco are as follows:

15 FAU
42 UAB
47 North Texas

Looking at each of these teams' remaining schedules, they are favored statistically in all remaining games except the following:

FAU: @UAB (+3)
UAB: @North Texas (+2.3)
North Texas: @FAU (+4.7), @UAB (+4.5)

Now we know in real life, WTFs happen. So the forecasts take into account the winning probabilities for each game for the rest of the season. Simple FN probabilities show you that if you are favored to win with a probability of 85% for each of your next three games, your odds of going 3-0 are actually 61%. So, with that in mind, the final projected CUSA standings at this stage are as follows:

1) FAU (17-3)
2) UAB (15-5)
3) North Texas (14-6)
4) Charlotte (11-9)
5) Middle Tennessee (10-10)
6) Louisiana Tech (9-11)
7) Rice (8-12)
7) UTEP (8-12)
9) FIU (7-13)
10) WKU (6-14)
11) UTSA (4-16)

So, unsurprisingly, the top 4 looks roughly the same. Clearly, UNT's dropped game at home versus FAU is a bogey they need to find a birdie for at some point.

What about tournament chances? Our pal Bart gives the following odds:

FAU: 35.3% chance of winning the tournament, 89.6% chance of making it (projected seed: 8)

UAB: 29.2% chance of winning the tournament, 47.3% chance of making it (projected seed: 10)

North Texas, 21.4% chance of winning the tournament, 28% chance of making it (projected seed: 11)

So, our at large chances aren't completely dusted. But, as I said before, going 3-0 in our remaining games versus the top teams will go a long way. Our final projected quad resume is as follows:

Quad 1: 1-3
Quad 2: 2-1
Quad 3: 9-2
Quad 4: 12-0

Doesn't exactly scream for an at-large. So we have work to do (but we all knew that).

But, let's have some FN fun. Say this game lit a fire under them, and they do better than 15-5 in league. What's the NET look like?

19-1: 27 (at large lock, 8 seed)
18-2: 27 (at large lock, 10 seed)
17-3: 35 (First Four, chances in doubt)
16-4: 43 (left out, must win the conference tournament)

*For these purposes, I simply toggled our games vs FAU and NT to losses.

One last fun item: as of right now, who does our tournament resume most resemble?

2016 San Diego St, 2019 Murray State, 2022 North Texas, 2008 Illinois State, and, funny enough, 2022 UAB. None of these teams received an at-large.

So here's what we know: the margin of error is a little bit smaller after last night, and we need to finish 14-2 in the regular season to feel good about being in at-large contention going into the tournament.

A couple more notes: In the "shoulda coulda woulda" department, a win last night would have moved us into a projected "last four byes" position, with a 61% chance of making the Dance.

(01-06-2023 03:37 PM)FNblazer Wrote:  While poring over the numbers amid my butthurt last night, I came across the following resource. Behold!

https://barttorvik.com/net4cast.php

This site uses the analytics thus far to forecast final regular season results. Looking at the top three teams in CUSA, the projected final NET rankings going into Frisco are as follows:

15 FAU
42 UAB
47 North Texas

Looking at each of these teams' remaining schedules, they are favored statistically in all remaining games except the following:

FAU: @UAB (+3)
UAB: @North Texas (+2.3)
North Texas: @FAU (+4.7), @UAB (+4.5)

Now we know in real life, WTFs happen. So the forecasts take into account the winning probabilities for each game for the rest of the season. Simple FN probabilities show you that if you are favored to win with a probability of 85% for each of your next three games, your odds of going 3-0 are actually 61%. So, with that in mind, the final projected CUSA standings at this stage are as follows:

1) FAU (17-3)
2) UAB (15-5)
3) North Texas (14-6)
4) Charlotte (11-9)
5) Middle Tennessee (10-10)
6) Louisiana Tech (9-11)
7) Rice (8-12)
7) UTEP (8-12)
9) FIU (7-13)
10) WKU (6-14)
11) UTSA (4-16)

So, unsurprisingly, the top 4 looks roughly the same. Clearly, UNT's dropped game at home versus FAU is a bogey they need to find a birdie for at some point.

What about tournament chances? Our pal Bart gives the following odds:

FAU: 35.3% chance of winning the tournament, 89.6% chance of making it (projected seed: 8)

UAB: 29.2% chance of winning the tournament, 47.3% chance of making it (projected seed: 10)

North Texas, 21.4% chance of winning the tournament, 28% chance of making it (projected seed: 11)

So, our at large chances aren't completely dusted. But, as I said before, going 3-0 in our remaining games versus the top teams will go a long way. Our final projected quad resume is as follows:

Quad 1: 1-3
Quad 2: 2-1
Quad 3: 9-2
Quad 4: 12-0

Doesn't exactly scream for an at-large. So we have work to do (but we all knew that).

But, let's have some FN fun. Say this game lit a fire under them, and they do better than 15-5 in league. What's the NET look like?

19-1: 27 (at large lock, 8 seed)
18-2: 27 (at large lock, 10 seed)
17-3: 35 (First Four, chances in doubt)
16-4: 43 (left out, must win the conference tournament)

*For these purposes, I simply toggled our games vs FAU and NT to losses.

One last fun item: as of right now, who does our tournament resume most resemble?

2016 San Diego St, 2019 Murray State, 2022 North Texas, 2008 Illinois State, and, funny enough, 2022 UAB. None of these teams received an at-large.

So here's what we know: the margin of error is a little bit smaller after last night, and we need to finish 14-2 in the regular season to feel good about being in at-large contention going into the tournament.

I've played around with this site too, and it is fun to waste some time on lol...

In those scenarios - who did you have us losing to in the regular season? Did you simulate the CUSA tourney - and how did you simulate that?

That website is pretty good. It also a rooting guide so you can cheer for certain teams to win each night based on how the metrics say it improves our chances.

I didn’t go through and simulate the tournament Answer…I just cut it at the end of the regular season.

The thing about this year is there is such a dropoff after the top three that the league winner is going to have a large premium over the 2 and 3 seeds, who must battle each other in the semis if they win the first round.

Well good news is if we finish out the conference slate with 1 loss, beat UNT in the semifinals, and lose to FAU in the conference championship our NET will be in the 20s and we'll be a shoe in for the dance! I can dream right

I want to see how we bounce back today. If it’s a good result with good energy, I have a lot of faith this team can still go on a solid run.

(01-07-2023 11:37 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  I want to see how we bounce back today. If it’s a good result with good energy, I have a lot of faith this team can still go on a solid run.

Agreed. There was a lot to like that I saw in the FAU game.

Soooooo....

What are those projections looking like now?

(01-07-2023 10:02 PM)rook360 Wrote:  Soooooo....

What are those projections looking like now?

KenPom:

FAU 17-3
North Texas 15-5
UAB 14-6
Charlotte 11-9
Louisiana Tech 10-10

(01-07-2023 11:46 AM)The Answer UAB Wrote:  

(01-07-2023 11:37 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  I want to see how we bounce back today. If it’s a good result with good energy, I have a lot of faith this team can still go on a solid run.

Agreed. There was a lot to like that I saw in the FAU game.

And then nothing to like against FIU. Hopefully we show up in Frisco again.

(01-08-2023 10:18 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  

(01-07-2023 11:46 AM)The Answer UAB Wrote:  

(01-07-2023 11:37 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  I want to see how we bounce back today. If it’s a good result with good energy, I have a lot of faith this team can still go on a solid run.

Agreed. There was a lot to like that I saw in the FAU game.

And then nothing to like against FIU. Hopefully we show up in Frisco again.

I don't think you're being sarcastic, but in case you are, yes there was almost nothing to like in that game last night. Jemison and LA Brewer played pretty well. Gaines had another good game on paper while also choking again and ending the game for us on the last play.