01-06-2023, 03:37 PM
While poring over the numbers amid my butthurt last night, I came across the following resource. Behold!
https://barttorvik.com/net4cast.php
This site uses the analytics thus far to forecast final regular season results. Looking at the top three teams in CUSA, the projected final NET rankings going into Frisco are as follows:
15 FAU
42 UAB
47 North Texas
Looking at each of these teams' remaining schedules, they are favored statistically in all remaining games except the following:
FAU: @UAB (+3)
UAB: @North Texas (+2.3)
North Texas: @FAU (+4.7), @UAB (+4.5)
Now we know in real life, WTFs happen. So the forecasts take into account the winning probabilities for each game for the rest of the season. Simple FN probabilities show you that if you are favored to win with a probability of 85% for each of your next three games, your odds of going 3-0 are actually 61%. So, with that in mind, the final projected CUSA standings at this stage are as follows:
1) FAU (17-3)
2) UAB (15-5)
3) North Texas (14-6)
4) Charlotte (11-9)
5) Middle Tennessee (10-10)
6) Louisiana Tech (9-11)
7) Rice (8-12)
7) UTEP (8-12)
9) FIU (7-13)
10) WKU (6-14)
11) UTSA (4-16)
So, unsurprisingly, the top 4 looks roughly the same. Clearly, UNT's dropped game at home versus FAU is a bogey they need to find a birdie for at some point.
What about tournament chances? Our pal Bart gives the following odds:
FAU: 35.3% chance of winning the tournament, 89.6% chance of making it (projected seed: 8)
UAB: 29.2% chance of winning the tournament, 47.3% chance of making it (projected seed: 10)
North Texas, 21.4% chance of winning the tournament, 28% chance of making it (projected seed: 11)
So, our at large chances aren't completely dusted. But, as I said before, going 3-0 in our remaining games versus the top teams will go a long way. Our final projected quad resume is as follows:
Quad 1: 1-3
Quad 2: 2-1
Quad 3: 9-2
Quad 4: 12-0
Doesn't exactly scream for an at-large. So we have work to do (but we all knew that).
But, let's have some FN fun. Say this game lit a fire under them, and they do better than 15-5 in league. What's the NET look like?
19-1: 27 (at large lock, 8 seed)
18-2: 27 (at large lock, 10 seed)
17-3: 35 (First Four, chances in doubt)
16-4: 43 (left out, must win the conference tournament)
*For these purposes, I simply toggled our games vs FAU and NT to losses.
One last fun item: as of right now, who does our tournament resume most resemble?
2016 San Diego St, 2019 Murray State, 2022 North Texas, 2008 Illinois State, and, funny enough, 2022 UAB. None of these teams received an at-large.
So here's what we know: the margin of error is a little bit smaller after last night, and we need to finish 14-2 in the regular season to feel good about being in at-large contention going into the tournament.
https://barttorvik.com/net4cast.php
This site uses the analytics thus far to forecast final regular season results. Looking at the top three teams in CUSA, the projected final NET rankings going into Frisco are as follows:
15 FAU
42 UAB
47 North Texas
Looking at each of these teams' remaining schedules, they are favored statistically in all remaining games except the following:
FAU: @UAB (+3)
UAB: @North Texas (+2.3)
North Texas: @FAU (+4.7), @UAB (+4.5)
Now we know in real life, WTFs happen. So the forecasts take into account the winning probabilities for each game for the rest of the season. Simple FN probabilities show you that if you are favored to win with a probability of 85% for each of your next three games, your odds of going 3-0 are actually 61%. So, with that in mind, the final projected CUSA standings at this stage are as follows:
1) FAU (17-3)
2) UAB (15-5)
3) North Texas (14-6)
4) Charlotte (11-9)
5) Middle Tennessee (10-10)
6) Louisiana Tech (9-11)
7) Rice (8-12)
7) UTEP (8-12)
9) FIU (7-13)
10) WKU (6-14)
11) UTSA (4-16)
So, unsurprisingly, the top 4 looks roughly the same. Clearly, UNT's dropped game at home versus FAU is a bogey they need to find a birdie for at some point.
What about tournament chances? Our pal Bart gives the following odds:
FAU: 35.3% chance of winning the tournament, 89.6% chance of making it (projected seed: 8)
UAB: 29.2% chance of winning the tournament, 47.3% chance of making it (projected seed: 10)
North Texas, 21.4% chance of winning the tournament, 28% chance of making it (projected seed: 11)
So, our at large chances aren't completely dusted. But, as I said before, going 3-0 in our remaining games versus the top teams will go a long way. Our final projected quad resume is as follows:
Quad 1: 1-3
Quad 2: 2-1
Quad 3: 9-2
Quad 4: 12-0
Doesn't exactly scream for an at-large. So we have work to do (but we all knew that).
But, let's have some FN fun. Say this game lit a fire under them, and they do better than 15-5 in league. What's the NET look like?
19-1: 27 (at large lock, 8 seed)
18-2: 27 (at large lock, 10 seed)
17-3: 35 (First Four, chances in doubt)
16-4: 43 (left out, must win the conference tournament)
*For these purposes, I simply toggled our games vs FAU and NT to losses.
One last fun item: as of right now, who does our tournament resume most resemble?
2016 San Diego St, 2019 Murray State, 2022 North Texas, 2008 Illinois State, and, funny enough, 2022 UAB. None of these teams received an at-large.
So here's what we know: the margin of error is a little bit smaller after last night, and we need to finish 14-2 in the regular season to feel good about being in at-large contention going into the tournament.
