16 is way too many.

Conference Champs get in if it goes the way FCS playoffs go.

AAC:Tulane
ACC:Clemson
Big 10:Michigan
Big !2:Kansas State
C-USA:UTSA
MAC:Toledo
MWC:Fresno State
PAC 12:Utah
SEC:Georgia
SBC:Troy

16 to 24 field with these at large.
Florida State
TCU
Ohio State
Penn State
USC
Washington
Oregon
Oregon State
Air Force
Alabama
Tennessee
JMU
South Alabama

Since some are 2 lose, some are three loss and some with 1 loss. Air Force gets the 24 spot since JMU would be ineligible to be in post season.

I think 12 is perfect - it's the right balance between rewarding conference champs, having realistic championship-worthy at-large bids, large enough for a lot of fan bases to dream that their own team can get there, and small enough that it's still an exclusive achievement. In particular, I'm a big fan of the first round bye for the top 4 conference champs - I continue to believe that WAAAAAAY too many people underrate that aspect in terms of the playoff bracket (while overrating the on-campus home playoff game component).

That being said, I can understand why there would be a push for 16 and could live with it. (I can't say the same for a 24-team playoff - I think that would be pretty awful.) As with any expansion, it's a question of a point of diminishing returns. As fans, we're concentrating on who gets into the playoff, where they play, and who's in best position to win. However, I don't think those are the right questions. Instead, the real questions are (a) how does this impact the *regular* season TV packages for the top conferences and (b) how do you deal with all of the TV time slots required for an expanded playoff?

There is only one reason (and one reason only) for playoff expansion: TV networks are paying for it. Without TV networks paying for it, there isn't expansion. The TV networks do NOT want overlapping and competing playoff games in the same time slots in the way that the first round of the NCAA Tournament works. We might love that as fans, but that won't work for these TV networks. That in and of itself is a natural limiting factor to playoff expansion: you can't have multiple playoff games going on in the same time slot and it's already hard enough to the CFP to avoid direct NFL competition with just 4 first round playoff games (much less 8 or more). This is a basic issue with playoff expansion that I believe a lot of people are just glossing over (and just having a knee-jerk reaction that "more playoff games = more money").

At the same time, the Big Ten and SEC in particular want absolutely nothing to do with the college football regular season devalued in the way that the NCAA Tournament has devalued the college basketball regular season. Of course the G5 want more playoff TV revenue because their regular season TV revenue is peanuts by comparison. The Big Ten and SEC are the opposite - the playoff revenue is essentially just icing on the cake for them compared to their regular season TV deals and they will ensure that will always be the case. That balance between the P2 regular season TV revenue and playoff TV revenue is another point that I believe that a lot of people are glossing over here.

You can get to 16 with 8 wildcards and rarely is the wildcard not pretty good.
I've run scenarios back to 1993 and there were only a few times were there 4 loss teams and. with the exception of three CCG losers, they were always conference champs.

(01-05-2023 04:03 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  Yes! More is always better!

From the standpoint of the networks, the adage "more is better" has definitely applied, at least when it comes to expansion of professional sports.

Consider the NFL. It started out with only 10 teams, but has grown steadily, and now has tripled in size to 32 teams, with additional expansion considered likely in the years ahead. Every professional sport has had a similar history of expansion.

Consider D1 and the FBS. There are ~100 more D1 teams today than there were when the D1-D2-D3 system came into existence, and the FBS has been expanding at the rate of ~1 new team per year over the past 25 years.

Consider the NCAA tournament. There were only 8 NCAA tournament teams from 1939 to 1950, but the tournament field has expanded steadily since then.

.

No one is suggesting unlimited expansion of the CFB playoffs. At most, an expansion to a 16-team playoff would give 12% of FBS teams a playoff spot. That's far less than the 20% of D1 teams that can compete in the NCAA BB tourney.

(01-05-2023 02:29 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  I think there's a high probability the CFP will expand to 16 teams for the 2026 season when the contract comes up for bid.

The only question is format. You can be sure the G5 conferences will be lobbying hard for an 8+8 format.

Not very likely. The 6+6 gives the P5 11 likely slots. The 8+8 gives the same P5 generally 13 slots---essentially giving the G5 2 new slots and the P5 2 new slots. When have we ever seen an equal split in benefits between the G5 and P5?

The piece said that if inclusion is the first priority, 16 includes more, then pointed out in passing that it's not clear how to find eight high quality TV slots ... which is a sleight of hand argument, because more money is the first priority, and it is not clear that four more games in the first round in the 5th to 8th best time slots are going to offset the loss in value to the CCG's.

(01-05-2023 06:49 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-05-2023 02:29 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  I think there's a high probability the CFP will expand to 16 teams for the 2026 season when the contract comes up for bid.

The only question is format. You can be sure the G5 conferences will be lobbying hard for an 8+8 format.

Not very likely. The 6+6 gives the P5 11 likely slots. The 8+8 gives the same P5 generally 13 slots---essentially giving the G5 2 new slots and the P5 2 new slots. When have we ever seen an equal split in benefits between the G5 and P5?

Let's be clear - - a 8+8 CFP would not result in "an equal split in benefits between the G5 and P5." Far from it - - the P5 would get 13 (81%) of the 16 CFP slots.

By contrast, the P5 has only gotten ~50% of the 68 NCAA tournament bids.

Hot damn! I could be a Twitter twatter, a beat writer, a head ball coach, or a conference commissioner!

Going to 16 playoff teams, I could see conferences like the Big Ten moving it's CCG to the last week of the regular season. This would require a flex schedule in the last week.

Everyone and anyone can want a 16 team playoff all they want with access for everyone, I don't think it's happening. I hate to be the turd in the punch bowl but there is no playoff TV deal starting in 2026. If there is a push for 16 teams and more inclusion and equal distribution of playoff money, the P2 will exit stage left and create their own playoffs, believe it.

(01-05-2023 08:28 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Everyone and anyone can want a 16 team playoff all they want with access for everyone, I don't think it's happening. I hate to be the turd in the punch bowl but there is no playoff TV deal starting in 2026. If there is a push for 16 teams and more inclusion and equal distribution of playoff money, the P2 will exit stage left and create their own playoffs, believe it.

Nobody is stupid enough to push for equal distribution of playoff money. The G5 are not idiot grifters like the lower levels of Division I and much of Division II and III.

(01-05-2023 08:28 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Everyone and anyone can want a 16 team playoff all they want with access for everyone, I don't think it's happening. I hate to be the turd in the punch bowl but there is no playoff TV deal starting in 2026. If there is a push for 16 teams and more inclusion and equal distribution of playoff money, the P2 will exit stage left and create their own playoffs, believe it.

The only way that 16 would happen is the same way 12 happened. Money. The P2 is well aquainted with that motive and 16 won't happen if the P2 says it won't.

I do think its notable that Dodd only got positive comments from G5 commissioners. No comments from any of the A5.

(01-05-2023 08:28 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Everyone and anyone can want a 16 team playoff all they want with access for everyone, I don't think it's happening. I hate to be the turd in the punch bowl but there is no playoff TV deal starting in 2026. If there is a push for 16 teams and more inclusion and equal distribution of playoff money, the P2 will exit stage left and create their own playoffs, believe it.

Let 'em leave. Good riddance! See what good it does them. It could backfire and bolster viewership of the main playoffs between the M3 and the best of the G5.

(01-05-2023 02:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Honestly, going to 16 always made more sense to me than 12. A 16 team playoff offers more content and revenue than a 12 team playoff. One of the biggest concerns has always been the time window available to complete the playoff. If your going to go to 12---then the time window required for 12 (4 rounds) is EXACTLY the same as the time window required for 16 (4 rounds)---so, why not maximize the revenue derived from that 4 round time window? More football. More inclusion. More fan bases involved. More interest. More viewers. More money.

No, it's not. It's not about the number of rounds, it's about the number of game windows. It's already going to be a struggle to fit 4 games in decent TV windows on the third Saturday in December, up against NFL games.
8 first-round games means either playing games at the same time, splitting the audience, playing games every weeknight for one week and three on Saturday (going up against NFL Monday and Thursday Night Football, plus games on the third Saturday of December)

(01-05-2023 10:01 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(01-05-2023 02:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Honestly, going to 16 always made more sense to me than 12. A 16 team playoff offers more content and revenue than a 12 team playoff. One of the biggest concerns has always been the time window available to complete the playoff. If your going to go to 12---then the time window required for 12 (4 rounds) is EXACTLY the same as the time window required for 16 (4 rounds)---so, why not maximize the revenue derived from that 4 round time window? More football. More inclusion. More fan bases involved. More interest. More viewers. More money.

No, it's not. It's not about the number of rounds, it's about the number of game windows. It's already going to be a struggle to fit 4 games in decent TV windows on the third Saturday in December, up against NFL games.
8 first-round games means either playing games at the same time, splitting the audience, playing games every weeknight for one week and three on Saturday (going up against NFL Monday and Thursday Night Football, plus games on the third Saturday of December)

Uh, yeah? Welcome to every other NCAA tournament. It's not as big of a deal as you think.

(01-05-2023 09:23 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-05-2023 08:28 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Everyone and anyone can want a 16 team playoff all they want with access for everyone, I don't think it's happening. I hate to be the turd in the punch bowl but there is no playoff TV deal starting in 2026. If there is a push for 16 teams and more inclusion and equal distribution of playoff money, the P2 will exit stage left and create their own playoffs, believe it.

Let 'em leave. Good riddance! See what good it does them. It could backfire and bolster viewership of the main playoffs between the M3 and the best of the G5.

What world do you live in??? Leafs and Mushrooms??

(01-05-2023 10:41 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(01-05-2023 10:01 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(01-05-2023 02:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Honestly, going to 16 always made more sense to me than 12. A 16 team playoff offers more content and revenue than a 12 team playoff. One of the biggest concerns has always been the time window available to complete the playoff. If your going to go to 12---then the time window required for 12 (4 rounds) is EXACTLY the same as the time window required for 16 (4 rounds)---so, why not maximize the revenue derived from that 4 round time window? More football. More inclusion. More fan bases involved. More interest. More viewers. More money.

No, it's not. It's not about the number of rounds, it's about the number of game windows. It's already going to be a struggle to fit 4 games in decent TV windows on the third Saturday in December, up against NFL games.
8 first-round games means either playing games at the same time, splitting the audience, playing games every weeknight for one week and three on Saturday (going up against NFL Monday and Thursday Night Football, plus games on the third Saturday of December)

Uh, yeah? Welcome to every other NCAA tournament. It's not as big of a deal as you think.

Well, there's only one other NCAA tournament that remotely matters financially. The more apt comparison is the NFL playoffs, where there are no multi-game windows. If 16 is a consideration, the powers that be are going to do everything they can to ensure they can sell two separate games getting 10-15M viewers rather than two games in the same window getting that number combined.

(01-05-2023 10:41 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(01-05-2023 10:01 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(01-05-2023 02:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Honestly, going to 16 always made more sense to me than 12. A 16 team playoff offers more content and revenue than a 12 team playoff. One of the biggest concerns has always been the time window available to complete the playoff. If your going to go to 12---then the time window required for 12 (4 rounds) is EXACTLY the same as the time window required for 16 (4 rounds)---so, why not maximize the revenue derived from that 4 round time window? More football. More inclusion. More fan bases involved. More interest. More viewers. More money.

No, it's not. It's not about the number of rounds, it's about the number of game windows. It's already going to be a struggle to fit 4 games in decent TV windows on the third Saturday in December, up against NFL games.
8 first-round games means either playing games at the same time, splitting the audience, playing games every weeknight for one week and three on Saturday (going up against NFL Monday and Thursday Night Football, plus games on the third Saturday of December)

Uh, yeah? Welcome to every other NCAA tournament. It's not as big of a deal as you think.

IMHO, it's a massive, monster, dealbreaker issue for the TV networks that a lot of fans are either strangely ignoring or not realizing. The TV networks are NOT paying billions of dollars for playoff games to go head-to-head against each other, especially if they're getting split between multiple networks like ESPN/ABC and FOX. As Go College Sports noted, the proper comparison is the NFL where every playoff game has an exclusive dedicated time slot as opposed to the NCAA Tournament.