(12-15-2022 03:03 PM)DavidSt Wrote: (12-15-2022 02:23 PM)JRsec Wrote: (12-15-2022 12:54 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote: One?
Two?
Four?
Maybe everybody leaves except for the Cougs and the Beavs, but the MWC is absorbed/rebranded, life goes on and there's still a door to the CFP?
The PAC 12 as we have known it just lost 22% of its total value, and its largest market. The PAC 12 is Dead Man Walking. All it awaits is its execution date. They will not recover. Warren shot them in the head and while the heart still beats it is only the machinery which is keeping them alive. Now the Life Flights circle waiting to harvest organs for transplant.
They can reload with lesser brands, but the proud and unique conference is dead. Their poster child for hoops and their poster child for football ran off with the Rose Bowl visitors and will not be back.
Lorrie (Lorena) has run off with Jake Spoon and Bolivar will now burn the bar down around himself in grief. Lonesome Dove will never be the same!
Big 12 also lost their two biggest money makers, and nobody is calling them dead man walking. So if the PAC 12 is a dead man walking? So is the Big 12. There is already talks that some of the Big 12 teams are targets for the Big 10, SEC and ACC.
There is always talks and there will always be talks. In that regard, nothing is new for the Big 12. As long as the Big 12 exists on a structural and financial "second tier" their member programs will seek out opportunities to "move up". Whether those materialize, and for who, remains to be seen. In the meantime, it is about making the Big 12 as comfortable of a home as possible. It isn't a Penthouse kind of life, but it is a house in the suburbs. I don't believe the PAC is a "dead man walking" but I do think they have a rocky road ahead that is made rockier with their institutional preference and stark realities coming to bear.
The main difference between the Big 12 and the PAC 12 right now are as follows:
1. The Big 12 has a media agreement in hand with FOX and ESPN. The Big 12's future exposure is guaranteed. The PAC still needs to present a satisfactory media deal to their members. With concerns about unequal revenue sharing, signing a GOR, potential B1G expansion, Big 12 interest, exposure, money amounts, potential PAC expansion. There is going to be a lot of work for the PAC to get to an agreement that gets everyone to the table. I think their preference will be stick together until they can't.
2. The Big 12 lost Texas and OU, but it did not lose its primary markets. The loss of Texas and OU as brands, bluebloods, and eyeballs can't be understated. However, the Big 12 is still going to be a prominent figure and entity in all of its traditional major markets. Some of that is assisted by the addition of Houston. The Big 12 also expanded the number of markets it is present in with BYU, Cincy, and UCF. These don't entirely offset the loss of the OU and Texas but they do pull the floor higher for the Big 12 and give it some decent sale points. The PAC lost USC/UCLA but more than that it lost the LA market. A market that is terribly fickle. They have no direct presence in that market and if they don't add SDSU then they will lose their SoCal presence entirely. There is no remedy for the PAC like Houston in replacing direct market access to LA. SDSU can be a mitigation measure for SoCal. The PAC needs more eyeballs to compensate for the loss and their western options are not as strong as the Big 12's options were/are. After Boise St., there is a substantial drop off in national interest for the remaining western brands available to the PAC.
3. The Big 12 has some demonstrated hard data for continued interest in their programs outside of Texas and OU. The past two conference championship games featuring Baylor/OSU and TCU/KSU drew extremely well and the general draw of non-Texas/OU games have been an encouraging mark for media partners who might question in the interest in Big 12 outside of Texas and OU. The PAC should also have some draw, but geography seems to work against them in this regard. Some of those teams would draw much better if they were regularly playing CST and EST teams.