(12-04-2022 11:42 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(12-04-2022 11:16 AM)Jmufan2018 Wrote:  

(12-04-2022 10:54 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(12-04-2022 10:46 AM)Jmufan2018 Wrote:  

(12-04-2022 10:37 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  How do you get 6 home games then?

Both remaining OOC games would have to be at home. The schedule math doesn't work unless we buy more G5 games.

Bourne has said we will host a G5 or P5 every year. Not sure what your argument is? Combine that with an FCS game and 4 conference home games and that would equal 6

We can't take two pay games in a season and maintain a 6 game home schedule. Not sure how people fail to understand this.

The standard formula OOC for G5 schools is: 1 FCS home, 1 G5 home, 1 G5 away, 1 P5 pay game. Sometimes you can work a 2-1 with a P5, a P5 1-1 is somewhat rare.

It would be the dumbest move ever to take a buy game from Liberty. We've got them scheduled as a home and home already around '33-34 Thats enough for me.

I would agree that taking a pay game from Liberty might not be smart going forward in the sense that it would set a precedent that they wouldn’t do a 1-1 in the future. But, if they are willing to pay, it is absolutely plausible to schedule a P5 away (pay), Liberty away (pay), G5 home, and FCS. That fits exactly into the formula you described as the standard formula for a G5 school PLUS we get paid rather than a 1-1 for the G5 school. Not sure what the issue with this would be.

You have to think of this in terms of multiple years. The only way you get to 6 home games each year while taking two pay games, is to also have two home buy games.

We got "lucky" MTSU was willing to take a buy game from us, and it was for ~700k. That really happened because they also got paid for a P5 cancellation and didn't have many other options for a game. It's far from typical.

Taking a buy game from Liberty to try to purchase another G5 game is silly. And it's a bad look to boot. It would take extraordinary circumstances to make this worthwhile.

Which is why I said “it would set a precedent that they wouldn’t do a 1-1 in the future.” This is not the expectation every year, but Liberty has deep pockets and scheduling a victory against them is a huge recruiting boost. This was way more likely when they were an independent as scheduling was much more difficult.

Coastal is hiring NC State OC Tim Beck as their next coach.

Maybe he convinces McCall to stay, if he doesn't declare for the draft.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-year-deal

7 years @4M/yr.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

Chadwell did an excellent job at Coastal and elevated them into the national spotlight during his tenure. But I think his work at Charleston Southern was even more impressive. That is a bad football program that has been in the FCS for 30 years and only made the playoffs twice. Both times were under Chadwell in 2015 and 2016 before he took the Coastal job.

I expect him to have great offenses at Liberty and they will rack up a lot of wins in the crappy CUSA. If they can pull a P5 upset once a year, then they will have the attention of the CFP selection committee.

(12-04-2022 09:22 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  Chadwell did an excellent job at Coastal and elevated them into the national spotlight during his tenure. But I think his work at Charleston Southern was even more impressive. That is a bad football program that has been in the FCS for 30 years and only made the playoffs twice. Both times were under Chadwell in 2015 and 2016 before he took the Coastal job.

I expect him to have great offenses at Liberty and they will rack up a lot of wins in the crappy CUSA. If they can pull a P5 upset once a year, then they will have the attention of the CFP selection committee.

Might be hard to pull a big P5 upset without having one on the schedule.

As of now, their next P5 game is at VT in 2027, and the schedules are full thru 2028. They play at VT in 2027, 2028, 2029, and have VT at home in 2030. That's it. Unless Tech dramatically improves, I'm not sure that win is so impressive.

It will be interesting to see how Liberty, Coastal, Jackson State, and Colorado turnout in 2023 and 2024.

Did a coach build a resume based on some great player performances? Did a program and schools resources make a coach or team successful? Did a specific coach recruit or have cachet to overperform their situation.

In the 4 instances above - only Colorado is a turnaround and even there they have had some success.

Coastal - may continue to recruit and perform well (But the past few years were unique for many reasons).

Liberty - likely will recruit and perform well. (Investment, coaching, and their conference seem to make this likely).

Jackson State - hard to see them consistently competitive in FBS without Coach Prime, but they may have found deep pockets and figured out to leverage NIL well.

Colorado - may struggle for a year or two. But will get talent and the weaker PAC12 could quickly yield 10+ win seasons. A good upside but if that happens, Coach Prime will quickly 'move' up.

(12-04-2022 10:15 PM)JMU_Rocks! Wrote:  It will be interesting to see how Liberty, Coastal, Jackson State, and Colorado turnout in 2023 and 2024.

Did a coach build a resume based on some great player performances? Did a program and schools resources make a coach or team successful? Did a specific coach recruit or have cachet to overperform their situation.

In the 4 instances above - only Colorado is a turnaround and even there they have had some success.

Coastal - may continue to recruit and perform well (But the past few years were unique for many reasons).

Liberty - likely will recruit and perform well. (Investment, coaching, and their conference seem to make this likely).

Jackson State - hard to see them consistently competitive in FBS without Coach Prime, but they may have found deep pockets and figured out to leverage NIL well.

Colorado - may struggle for a year or two. But will get talent and the weaker PAC12 could quickly yield 10+ win seasons. A good upside but if that happens, Coach Prime will quickly 'move' up.

I think Coastal will regress to the mean. Grayson McCall better have a younger brother for them to not.

I agree that Liberty will still have a solid W/L every year because they’re going to get to play Jacksonville State (lol), Sam Houston State (lol), and Kennesaw State (lol) every single year.

Colorado will be fun to watch. Who has said that in the last 20 (?) years? The video today with him and his new team where basically tells the current players they better hit the portal was wild. He’s going to recruit the best players in the country to there and be the first real new threat to Texas A&M, Bama, Clemson, etc in recruitment for a longggg time. I think his ability to coach will get exposed at this level. I don’t see him being a great or elite coach, but I hope I’m wrong. The pure talent can only take you so far. It will also be interesting to see how his son plays against P5 competition.

(12-04-2022 11:27 PM)Jmufan2018 Wrote:  

(12-04-2022 10:15 PM)JMU_Rocks! Wrote:  It will be interesting to see how Liberty, Coastal, Jackson State, and Colorado turnout in 2023 and 2024.

Did a coach build a resume based on some great player performances? Did a program and schools resources make a coach or team successful? Did a specific coach recruit or have cachet to overperform their situation.

In the 4 instances above - only Colorado is a turnaround and even there they have had some success.

Coastal - may continue to recruit and perform well (But the past few years were unique for many reasons).

Liberty - likely will recruit and perform well. (Investment, coaching, and their conference seem to make this likely).

Jackson State - hard to see them consistently competitive in FBS without Coach Prime, but they may have found deep pockets and figured out to leverage NIL well.

Colorado - may struggle for a year or two. But will get talent and the weaker PAC12 could quickly yield 10+ win seasons. A good upside but if that happens, Coach Prime will quickly 'move' up.

I think Coastal will regress to the mean. Grayson McCall better have a younger brother for them to not.

I agree that Liberty will still have a solid W/L every year because they’re going to get to play Jacksonville State (lol), Sam Houston State (lol), and Kennesaw State (lol) every single year.

Colorado will be fun to watch. Who has said that in the last 20 (?) years? The video today with him and his new team where basically tells the current players they better hit the portal was wild. He’s going to recruit the best players in the country to there and be the first real new threat to Texas A&M, Bama, Clemson, etc in recruitment for a longggg time. I think his ability to coach will get exposed at this level. I don’t see him being a great or elite coach, but I hope I’m wrong. The pure talent can only take you so far. It will also be interesting to see how his son plays against P5 competition.

That's what I am most curious about. Yes, he is obviously a great salesman (recruiter) - he has been for decades. But how much of his success at Jackson State was because he was getting strong I-A recruits and having them play against some of the worst I-AA (and D2) competition? If he has the same level of recruits as Saban or Harbough, will he have the same amount of success...or is it going to be just hype? I never saw his games...can he actually coach?

(12-04-2022 10:15 PM)JMU_Rocks! Wrote:  It will be interesting to see how Liberty, Coastal, Jackson State, and Colorado turnout in 2023 and 2024.

Jackson State - hard to see them consistently competitive in FBS without Coach Prime, but they may have found deep pockets and figured out to leverage NIL well.

I doubt it, and whatever they “found” will probably be “lost” now that he took his show on the road. JSU has had high attendance numbers for years but always complained of the shoestring budget, so either those tickets are deeply discounted or something else is amiss in Jackson. They get in the high 30k range for attendance and claim the local economy gets a $30mil boost yet the department’s budget is barely $2mil with <$20k for recruiting.

(12-04-2022 11:27 PM)Jmufan2018 Wrote:  

(12-04-2022 10:15 PM)JMU_Rocks! Wrote:  It will be interesting to see how Liberty, Coastal, Jackson State, and Colorado turnout in 2023 and 2024.

Did a coach build a resume based on some great player performances? Did a program and schools resources make a coach or team successful? Did a specific coach recruit or have cachet to overperform their situation.

In the 4 instances above - only Colorado is a turnaround and even there they have had some success.

Coastal - may continue to recruit and perform well (But the past few years were unique for many reasons).

Liberty - likely will recruit and perform well. (Investment, coaching, and their conference seem to make this likely).

Jackson State - hard to see them consistently competitive in FBS without Coach Prime, but they may have found deep pockets and figured out to leverage NIL well.

Colorado - may struggle for a year or two. But will get talent and the weaker PAC12 could quickly yield 10+ win seasons. A good upside but if that happens, Coach Prime will quickly 'move' up.

I think Coastal will regress to the mean. Grayson McCall better have a younger brother for them to not.

I agree that Liberty will still have a solid W/L every year because they’re going to get to play Jacksonville State (lol), Sam Houston State (lol), and Kennesaw State (lol) every single year.

Colorado will be fun to watch. Who has said that in the last 20 (?) years? The video today with him and his new team where basically tells the current players they better hit the portal was wild. He’s going to recruit the best players in the country to there and be the first real new threat to Texas A&M, Bama, Clemson, etc in recruitment for a longggg time. I think his ability to coach will get exposed at this level. I don’t see him being a great or elite coach, but I hope I’m wrong. The pure talent can only take you so far. It will also be interesting to see how his son plays against P5 competition.

Not sure he needs to coach much. He can recruit high level assistant coaches with NFL experience to handle most of the planning and play calling. That seemed to be his approach at JSU.

Jerry Jones also said recently that Deion is "very capable" of being a NFL head coach, fwiw.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...ead-coach/

(12-05-2022 01:19 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Not sure he needs to coach much. He can recruit high level assistant coaches with NFL experience to handle most of the planning and play calling. That seemed to be his approach at JSU.

Jerry Jones also said recently that Deion is "very capable" of being a NFL head coach, fwiw.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...ead-coach/

Yeah but that dimwit couldn't see the Nooch was a future all-pro so we can't listen to Jerry.

In my 16 years of working on college football I cant remember a guy worth more points to the spread to their team than McCall. Some of this is based on drop off to the backups but its still notable. I would be surprised if he wasn't a late NFL draft pick even though he is partially effective because hes super accurate out of an option attack. He can run but is lethal when passing. I am far from a NFL draft prospect analyst but I'd guess he goes in the draft at some point. That being said he also is going to have a ton of options in college wherever he wants to go. It will be an adjustment from his current scheme but it might help him show he can run a more conventional attack.

Per Dr Bob from before Southern Miss game

"Coastal Carolina will be without star QB Grayson McCall for 3 to 6 weeks and McCall is the most valuable player in college football, as the difference between his level of play and his backups is more than any quarterback in the nation. Before McCall arrived as a freshman in 2020 the Chanticleers’ passing game was consistently between -1.5 yards per pass play and -1.1 yppp and McCall was 2.1 yppp better than average in his first season (8.8 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average QB). Last season McCall was 3.0 yppp better than average (10.6 yppp against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp) and backup Bryce Carpenter averaged just 5.2 yppp (against teams that would allow 8.0 yppp) in the two games that McCall missed. One of those games was in extreme weather but Carpenter was 1.5 yppp worse than average in the other game and has been 2.1 yppp worse than average in nearly 300 career pass plays excluding that bad weather game. I don’t think Carpenter, or Jarrett Guest, to be that bad, as Carpenter likely has improved over the years, but I do think the -1.5 yppp to -1.1 yppp range that the Chanticleers were historically at before McCall is a reasonable projection (I decided on -1.3 yppp, which may be generous).

The only reason that Coastal Carolina is 8-1 is because of McCall, as the defense is much worse than it has been the last two years. Coastal’s defense has given up 6.3 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average defense (I rate that unit at 0.8 yppl worse than average after adjusting for a negative outlier in the ODU game)."

(12-06-2022 12:39 PM)UofRfan Wrote:  In my 16 years of working on college football I cant remember a guy worth more points to the spread to their team than McCall. Some of this is based on drop off to the backups but its still notable. I would be surprised if he wasn't a late NFL draft pick even though he is partially effective because hes super accurate out of an option attack. He can run but is lethal when passing. I am far from a NFL draft prospect analyst but I'd guess he goes in the draft at some point. That being said he also is going to have a ton of options in college wherever he wants to go. It will be an adjustment from his current scheme but it might help him show he can run a more conventional attack.

Per Dr Bob from before Southern Miss game

"Coastal Carolina will be without star QB Grayson McCall for 3 to 6 weeks and McCall is the most valuable player in college football, as the difference between his level of play and his backups is more than any quarterback in the nation. Before McCall arrived as a freshman in 2020 the Chanticleers’ passing game was consistently between -1.5 yards per pass play and -1.1 yppp and McCall was 2.1 yppp better than average in his first season (8.8 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average QB). Last season McCall was 3.0 yppp better than average (10.6 yppp against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp) and backup Bryce Carpenter averaged just 5.2 yppp (against teams that would allow 8.0 yppp) in the two games that McCall missed. One of those games was in extreme weather but Carpenter was 1.5 yppp worse than average in the other game and has been 2.1 yppp worse than average in nearly 300 career pass plays excluding that bad weather game. I don’t think Carpenter, or Jarrett Guest, to be that bad, as Carpenter likely has improved over the years, but I do think the -1.5 yppp to -1.1 yppp range that the Chanticleers were historically at before McCall is a reasonable projection (I decided on -1.3 yppp, which may be generous).

The only reason that Coastal Carolina is 8-1 is because of McCall, as the defense is much worse than it has been the last two years. Coastal’s defense has given up 6.3 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average defense (I rate that unit at 0.8 yppl worse than average after adjusting for a negative outlier in the ODU game)."

Good QB's make the game look so much different. There's confidence that doesn't exist within the team (offense and defense) when he's not playing. McCall carries that with him on gameday.

At the beginning of our Marshall game I thought we were going to be okay with Adkins, but by middle of the second quarter, it all changed.

People typically overrate how much a single player is worth in sports. That being said McCall and Centeio seemed worth massive amounts to their team this season. Replacement value is a key component to this as well. Montana was great but if you replace with Steve Young its probably not a huge drop off.

Hope JMU can fill the QB spot with another difference maker next season.

(12-06-2022 04:02 PM)UofRfan Wrote:  People typically overrate how much a single player is worth in sports. That being said McCall and Centeio seemed worth massive amounts to their team this season. Replacement value is a key component to this as well. Montana was great but if you replace with Steve Young its probably not a huge drop off.

Hope JMU can fill the QB spot with another difference maker next season.

McCloud is far from a lock, but he is a dual threat guy that could be a difference maker for us. Mettlen's article on him was quite good and worth a read. He also has the right mentality (after a career high game, he wanted to know what he missed and could have done better). If he can stay healthy, I think he could be that guy.
Don't sleep on Barnett, either. I think he was used sparingly this year because I do believe Cignetti sees him as the future of JMU. Not sure next year is his time, but it might be. He's also got the right mindset to be a great QB.
I do not believe Atkins is the guy. Not due to his ability, but the fact that he does not practice well. I believe he has the athletic ability, but he makes way too many mistakes.
I wouldn't be surprised to see JMU bring in another transfer just to give us more options at QB. We need more than one guy to get it done. Injuries happen.

(12-06-2022 04:19 PM)JMad03 Wrote:  

(12-06-2022 04:02 PM)UofRfan Wrote:  People typically overrate how much a single player is worth in sports. That being said McCall and Centeio seemed worth massive amounts to their team this season. Replacement value is a key component to this as well. Montana was great but if you replace with Steve Young its probably not a huge drop off.

Hope JMU can fill the QB spot with another difference maker next season.

McCloud is far from a lock, but he is a dual threat guy that could be a difference maker for us. Mettlen's article on him was quite good and worth a read. He also has the right mentality (after a career high game, he wanted to know what he missed and could have done better). If he can stay healthy, I think he could be that guy.
Don't sleep on Barnett, either. I think he was used sparingly this year because I do believe Cignetti sees him as the future of JMU. Not sure next year is his time, but it might be. He's also got the right mindset to be a great QB.
I do not believe Atkins is the guy. Not due to his ability, but the fact that he does not practice well. I believe he has the athletic ability, but he makes way too many mistakes.
I wouldn't be surprised to see JMU bring in another transfer just to give us more options at QB. We need more than one guy to get it done. Injuries happen.

I think we absolutely need another guy in the mix. We all saw what we looked like without Centeio. Can have that big of a drop off next year

Read where McCall is in the portal.

Coastal. Done.

They lost an excellent offensive head coach and now the most efficient QB in the nation over the last 3 years.

Would be amazing if Cignetti could lure McCall to JMU

(12-13-2022 04:11 AM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  Coastal. Done.

They lost an excellent offensive head coach and now the most efficient QB in the nation over the last 3 years.

Would be amazing if Cignetti could lure McCall to JMU

If McCall were to land at JMU, Coastal fans would need a 24 hour emergency hot line set up for meltdowns

McCall is a mid round draft pick as we stand today. If he stays in school, he will go P5. This is a very full QB draft class, I am guessing he has received direction that he has a better shot of going in an early round next year, especially if he balls out at a P5.