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The b12 is not safe
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Fanofreason Offline
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Post: #61
RE: The b12 is not safe
You forgetting the Big 10 and SEC are gonna carve up the ACC.
10-11-2022 08:24 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #62
RE: The b12 is not safe
IMO, the OP was a troll of the Big 12. Some of the responses to the poster were violations of AUP in that they were intended to flame. Ad hominem attacks are not in compliance with CS/CR rules. Conference boards might tolerate it but this one doesn't.

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10-11-2022 10:21 PM
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1845 Bear Offline
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Post: #63
RE: The b12 is not safe
(10-10-2022 07:37 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  
(10-10-2022 07:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(10-10-2022 07:21 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  I don't understand why so many B12 fans think that they will be the third best conference. The ACC can come and take WVU and Cincy very easily and the B12 will be looking for scraps again. I mean the B12 doesn't even have its own NETWORK. Unlike the ACC. Legit I feel like B12 fans should really pipe down. I saw PAC-12 fans doing the same thing last year and we all saw what happened.

I do not care one bit for the big 12 or any of their teams, but I'd sure rather be a big 12 fan than a Pac or ACC fan these days.

The Pac has been raided once, with a decent chance that they'll be raided again now, or in a decade, or some time in between. The ACC has not been raided yet but they certainly will be as soon their GoR is over with.

The big 12 is likely to be on par or very nearly so with the ACC as currently constitued in their next contract that starts in 2025, and very likely to be somewhere in the $5-10m range ahead of the Pac even assuming no more Pac schools leave. The next time the P2 feeds, it's overwhelmingly likely that they take 2-8 schools from the ACC and Pac, thereby indirectly strengthening the big 12 indirectly.

Oh, and the next big 12 deal would need to be around $10m per school worse then the ACC's deal to set any of their schools up to get raided due to their exit fees. The ACC has no exit fees fyi. So you have:

ACC: 14 year GoR + 3 years exit fees. Nobody is leaving there for a long time.
big 12: 2 years exit fees, currently around $80m, and they've lost 6 schools in 13 years. The poster child for a picked over conference.
Pac: no exit fee, just lost their 1 really great market and 2 highest profile schools, geographically isolated. Things do not look good for them.

You can make an argument, perhaps not a good one but at least an argument, that the ACC will only lose a couple of schools and will end up competitive with the big 12 after the next P2 expansion. However, the Pac is in dire straits. They have 4 interlopers with wandering eyes in the 4C4, 2 low value schools in WSU and OSU, and 4 potentially valuable schools in the PN4 that all want to go to the B1G. It's really hard to see a long term path forward for the Pac... They need the B1G to decide against adding any more Pac schools, even UW, plus they need to big 12 rights deal to come in a quite a bit lower than expected. It would help if the ACC grabs a couple big 12 teams. None of those are impossible on their own, but all of them combined is quite unlikely.

Ok I see your point but in the end my question is why do so many people assume that the B12 could steal from the ACC? There would be no freaking way that schools like Duke, Wake Forrest, Miami, and Pitt will play in the B12. Also WVU and cincy would be in a much better traveling situation as well.

Any talk of the Big 12 moving on ACC schools is based on the assumption that FSU/Clemson/Miami and probably more are out the door to the SEC/B1G and the payout tanks relative to the Big 12 at that time due to this.
10-12-2022 09:39 AM
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