The Big 12 is in a great place. They have enough members that even a loss of 2-4 members wouldn’t endanger them and no one is a clear flight risk.

If the PAC 10 gets raided again, the Big 12 is in the position to snatch up the best pieces left.

If the ACC were to lose 4 or more members I think the Big 12 is in a good position to offer them a merger or cooperation deal.

(10-10-2022 09:45 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  The ACC has not been raided yet

Someone forgeting the Terps? "... not been raided again" maybe?

Not wishing the ACC more pain, but the trend is clear. Fortunately they seem to have some time to enjoy, unless a vote is taken to dissolve.

Nope the b12 is more vulnerable than you think. Stop drinking the kool-aid. TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas will not reach the viewership level that the ACC will have

(10-10-2022 07:51 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:37 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:21 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  I don't understand why so many B12 fans think that they will be the third best conference. The ACC can come and take WVU and Cincy very easily and the B12 will be looking for scraps again. I mean the B12 doesn't even have its own NETWORK. Unlike the ACC. Legit I feel like B12 fans should really pipe down. I saw PAC-12 fans doing the same thing last year and we all saw what happened.

I do not care one bit for the big 12 or any of their teams, but I'd sure rather be a big 12 fan than a Pac or ACC fan these days.

The Pac has been raided once, with a decent chance that they'll be raided again now, or in a decade, or some time in between. The ACC has not been raided yet but they certainly will be as soon their GoR is over with.

The big 12 is likely to be on par or very nearly so with the ACC as currently constitued in their next contract that starts in 2025, and very likely to be somewhere in the $5-10m range ahead of the Pac even assuming no more Pac schools leave. The next time the P2 feeds, it's overwhelmingly likely that they take 2-8 schools from the ACC and Pac, thereby indirectly strengthening the big 12 indirectly.

Oh, and the next big 12 deal would need to be around $10m per school worse then the ACC's deal to set any of their schools up to get raided due to their exit fees. The ACC has no exit fees fyi. So you have:

ACC: 14 year GoR + 3 years exit fees. Nobody is leaving there for a long time.
big 12: 2 years exit fees, currently around $80m, and they've lost 6 schools in 13 years. The poster child for a picked over conference.
Pac: no exit fee, just lost their 1 really great market and 2 highest profile schools, geographically isolated. Things do not look good for them.

You can make an argument, perhaps not a good one but at least an argument, that the ACC will only lose a couple of schools and will end up competitive with the big 12 after the next P2 expansion. However, the Pac is in dire straits. They have 4 interlopers with wandering eyes in the 4C4, 2 low value schools in WSU and OSU, and 4 potentially valuable schools in the PN4 that all want to go to the B1G. It's really hard to see a long term path forward for the Pac... They need the B1G to decide against adding any more Pac schools, even UW, plus they need to big 12 rights deal to come in a quite a bit lower than expected. It would help if the ACC grabs a couple big 12 teams. None of those are impossible on their own, but all of them combined is quite unlikely.

Ok I see your point but in the end my question is why do so many people assume that the B12 could steal from the ACC? There would be no freaking way that schools like Duke, Wake Forrest, Miami, and Pitt will play in the B12. Also WVU and cincy would be in a much better traveling situation as well.

Just like in the case of the big 12, I have zero interest in any school in the ACC. These are just my thoughts on the situation.

The next big 12 deal is a common topic of speculation on these boards. If you took a broad range of opinions, you'd likely end up with something in the $30-40m per school per year range. Even if it comes out at the very bottom of that, $30m, their exit fee would still be $60m, and with their next contract starting in 2025 there's a good chance that they they're halfway through their next NEXT contract before the ACC GoR expires. In the meantime, the ACC is certain to lose their 2 highest revenue schools, and probably losing another 2-6 on top of that. If it's just FSU/Clemson and nobody else leaves, then the ACC is probably on par or at least close to it with the big 12. However, UNC also seems quite likely to go, along with a minimum of 1 more. If the ACC loses their top 4 then the big 12 would be a very attractive landing spot for the best of the left behind teams.

edit: as far as the population changes in big states:

texas: fastest growing state in total population, 3rd fastest growing as a %, also one of the premier football-focused states in the country. Also, 1/3 of the conference is in texas and their HQ is in Dallas, it's very much a Texas-focused conference.
Florida: #9 as a %, #2 in absolute, 2nd best state behind texas in the entire country for football
Ok, Ks, Ia - all in the 20's and 30's, very close to avg % population increase over past decade
Utah: fastest growing state in the country as a %, #12 in total even though it's starting from a low population
Ohio: lower population growth % than Ks, probably around #40 as a %, but its #23 in absolute growth b/c it's such a large state
WV: -3.2%, last place in the 50 states, though that was only a total of 59k people b/c it's also the lowest population in the big 12

Overall I'd rate the big 12's trend as a strong #2 of the theoretical P5, with only the SEC footprint stronger (in part due to their very strong presence in Texas). The Pac footprint might have more growth, in fact I'm confident that it does, but it's also growing away from football and towards other sports (or things other than sports).

Let's compare the big 12 footprint with the ACC's:
North Carolina: #16 as a %, #6 in absolute terms, a clear winner, though not very efficient with 4 schools here.
Virginia: #19 as a %, #10 in absolute terms, a clear winner. Only 2 schools here, and they dominate the state.
Forida: #9 as a %, #2 in absolute terms. 2nd best state in the country for Fooball, and they have 2/3 of the trifecta there
South Carolina: ahead of NC and VA in % terms, but behind them in absolute terms, but they have the#1 school there. Might be the ACC's most efficient state (strong position and only 1 school in state)
Georgia: over 1m total population increase in past decade, even ahead of North Carolina, but a very weak position in this state. GT doesn't even carry Atlanta, and might be the 6th or 7th biggest school in the rest of the state.
rest of the states are pretty similar to the midwestern big 12 states

So, lets call the midwestern states from both conferences a draw. The ACC dominates in NC/VA, that's 1.5m people added that are basically all ACC country fans. In SC the ACC has a strong position but it goes head to head with the SEC in that state and region, let's call that state a split. In Florida, the ACC is certain to lose FSU and might also lose Miami, that's probably a big 12 advantage long term but lets call it a draw for right now. And, really, neither conference will have a big presence when the P2 has 75% + of the total fans in the state with just FSU/UF. Oh, and in NC once you take out UNC, that's at least 1/2 and perhaps more of the state's fans. And Clemson leaving eliminates SC all together. So, post-feeding the ACC looks more like:

Some presence in NC, unsure how much, probably 50% at best
Some presence in VA, unsure how much, could be 100%, or 50%, or 0%, really no idea right now
Some presence perhaps in FL, but likely very small and only in the Miami area if any at all, maybe 1/6 of the state at best
weak presence in GA
no presence in SC

The ACC is going to look very weak immediately after they lose their top schools, and perhaps even weaker when you take into account the long term prospects for their remaining schools. If I'm, say, Miami, GT, Duke, NC State, Pitt, Louisville and Va Tech, and we just lost our 4 best schools to the P2, I'm thinking that joining the big 12 looks an awful lot more appealing than staying in a conference with a bunch of small schools, private schools, or clear 3rd/4th schools in a 2 school state. Though that will come down to what their media rights deal looks like post-2036, they could very well end up with something just as surprising as what we're seeing with the big 12 recently. And, academically, it will depend upon what the big 12 looks like then. Are they still the current 12 members? Did they steal any of the 4c4 from the Pac? What if the big 12 gets ASU and CU now, then takes GT and Miami? At that point, they will have some prestigious academic institutions, certainly enough to offer cover for any more ACC schools that are on the fence. And as for Pitt? Their Backyard Brawl this year was amazing, it was in fact the only game so far outside of the P2/Clemson to have over 3m viewers. I'd love to see more of that, whether it's OOC in the future, ACC, or big 12 matters little to me.

I thought about your methodology here and came up with the following -

When there is one P-5 in a State it gets 100% of the State
If 2 the first one gets 55% and the second gets 45% of the State
If 3 then first one gets 45%, the second gets 35% and the third gets 20%
If 4 then the first one gets 40%, 2nd gets 30%, third 20%, 4th 10%
No more award of value at 5th in a State.

The current ACC state footprint population is 109 million but using the above it falls to 76.4 million. The future B12 footprint is 79 million but it falls to just 26.15 million using the above formula. Texas and TAMU take 70% of the value out of Texas using this formula. Florida, FSU, and Miami take 90% out of Florida. OU and Ohio State and Utah take 55% of the value out of Oklahoma. Ohio, and Utah.

You can make money on the third school in a larger state but where is the line? A fourth can probably only make money in a massive State like Florida, California, and Texas.

(10-10-2022 10:01 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:51 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:37 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:21 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  I don't understand why so many B12 fans think that they will be the third best conference. The ACC can come and take WVU and Cincy very easily and the B12 will be looking for scraps again. I mean the B12 doesn't even have its own NETWORK. Unlike the ACC. Legit I feel like B12 fans should really pipe down. I saw PAC-12 fans doing the same thing last year and we all saw what happened.

I do not care one bit for the big 12 or any of their teams, but I'd sure rather be a big 12 fan than a Pac or ACC fan these days.

The Pac has been raided once, with a decent chance that they'll be raided again now, or in a decade, or some time in between. The ACC has not been raided yet but they certainly will be as soon their GoR is over with.

The big 12 is likely to be on par or very nearly so with the ACC as currently constitued in their next contract that starts in 2025, and very likely to be somewhere in the $5-10m range ahead of the Pac even assuming no more Pac schools leave. The next time the P2 feeds, it's overwhelmingly likely that they take 2-8 schools from the ACC and Pac, thereby indirectly strengthening the big 12 indirectly.

Oh, and the next big 12 deal would need to be around $10m per school worse then the ACC's deal to set any of their schools up to get raided due to their exit fees. The ACC has no exit fees fyi. So you have:

ACC: 14 year GoR + 3 years exit fees. Nobody is leaving there for a long time.
big 12: 2 years exit fees, currently around $80m, and they've lost 6 schools in 13 years. The poster child for a picked over conference.
Pac: no exit fee, just lost their 1 really great market and 2 highest profile schools, geographically isolated. Things do not look good for them.

You can make an argument, perhaps not a good one but at least an argument, that the ACC will only lose a couple of schools and will end up competitive with the big 12 after the next P2 expansion. However, the Pac is in dire straits. They have 4 interlopers with wandering eyes in the 4C4, 2 low value schools in WSU and OSU, and 4 potentially valuable schools in the PN4 that all want to go to the B1G. It's really hard to see a long term path forward for the Pac... They need the B1G to decide against adding any more Pac schools, even UW, plus they need to big 12 rights deal to come in a quite a bit lower than expected. It would help if the ACC grabs a couple big 12 teams. None of those are impossible on their own, but all of them combined is quite unlikely.

Ok I see your point but in the end my question is why do so many people assume that the B12 could steal from the ACC? There would be no freaking way that schools like Duke, Wake Forrest, Miami, and Pitt will play in the B12. Also WVU and cincy would be in a much better traveling situation as well.

Just like in the case of the big 12, I have zero interest in any school in the ACC. These are just my thoughts on the situation.

The next big 12 deal is a common topic of speculation on these boards. If you took a broad range of opinions, you'd likely end up with something in the $30-40m per school per year range. Even if it comes out at the very bottom of that, $30m, their exit fee would still be $60m, and with their next contract starting in 2025 there's a good chance that they they're halfway through their next NEXT contract before the ACC GoR expires. In the meantime, the ACC is certain to lose their 2 highest revenue schools, and probably losing another 2-6 on top of that. If it's just FSU/Clemson and nobody else leaves, then the ACC is probably on par or at least close to it with the big 12. However, UNC also seems quite likely to go, along with a minimum of 1 more. If the ACC loses their top 4 then the big 12 would be a very attractive landing spot for the best of the left behind teams.

edit: as far as the population changes in big states:

texas: fastest growing state in total population, 3rd fastest growing as a %, also one of the premier football-focused states in the country. Also, 1/3 of the conference is in texas and their HQ is in Dallas, it's very much a Texas-focused conference.
Florida: #9 as a %, #2 in absolute, 2nd best state behind texas in the entire country for football
Ok, Ks, Ia - all in the 20's and 30's, very close to avg % population increase over past decade
Utah: fastest growing state in the country as a %, #12 in total even though it's starting from a low population
Ohio: lower population growth % than Ks, probably around #40 as a %, but its #23 in absolute growth b/c it's such a large state
WV: -3.2%, last place in the 50 states, though that was only a total of 59k people b/c it's also the lowest population in the big 12

Overall I'd rate the big 12's trend as a strong #2 of the theoretical P5, with only the SEC footprint stronger (in part due to their very strong presence in Texas). The Pac footprint might have more growth, in fact I'm confident that it does, but it's also growing away from football and towards other sports (or things other than sports).

Let's compare the big 12 footprint with the ACC's:
North Carolina: #16 as a %, #6 in absolute terms, a clear winner, though not very efficient with 4 schools here.
Virginia: #19 as a %, #10 in absolute terms, a clear winner. Only 2 schools here, and they dominate the state.
Forida: #9 as a %, #2 in absolute terms. 2nd best state in the country for Fooball, and they have 2/3 of the trifecta there
South Carolina: ahead of NC and VA in % terms, but behind them in absolute terms, but they have the#1 school there. Might be the ACC's most efficient state (strong position and only 1 school in state)
Georgia: over 1m total population increase in past decade, even ahead of North Carolina, but a very weak position in this state. GT doesn't even carry Atlanta, and might be the 6th or 7th biggest school in the rest of the state.
rest of the states are pretty similar to the midwestern big 12 states

So, lets call the midwestern states from both conferences a draw. The ACC dominates in NC/VA, that's 1.5m people added that are basically all ACC country fans. In SC the ACC has a strong position but it goes head to head with the SEC in that state and region, let's call that state a split. In Florida, the ACC is certain to lose FSU and might also lose Miami, that's probably a big 12 advantage long term but lets call it a draw for right now. And, really, neither conference will have a big presence when the P2 has 75% + of the total fans in the state with just FSU/UF. Oh, and in NC once you take out UNC, that's at least 1/2 and perhaps more of the state's fans. And Clemson leaving eliminates SC all together. So, post-feeding the ACC looks more like:

Some presence in NC, unsure how much, probably 50% at best
Some presence in VA, unsure how much, could be 100%, or 50%, or 0%, really no idea right now
Some presence perhaps in FL, but likely very small and only in the Miami area if any at all, maybe 1/6 of the state at best
weak presence in GA
no presence in SC

The ACC is going to look very weak immediately after they lose their top schools, and perhaps even weaker when you take into account the long term prospects for their remaining schools. If I'm, say, Miami, GT, Duke, NC State, Pitt, Louisville and Va Tech, and we just lost our 4 best schools to the P2, I'm thinking that joining the big 12 looks an awful lot more appealing than staying in a conference with a bunch of small schools, private schools, or clear 3rd/4th schools in a 2 school state. Though that will come down to what their media rights deal looks like post-2036, they could very well end up with something just as surprising as what we're seeing with the big 12 recently. And, academically, it will depend upon what the big 12 looks like then. Are they still the current 12 members? Did they steal any of the 4c4 from the Pac? What if the big 12 gets ASU and CU now, then takes GT and Miami? At that point, they will have some prestigious academic institutions, certainly enough to offer cover for any more ACC schools that are on the fence. And as for Pitt? Their Backyard Brawl this year was amazing, it was in fact the only game so far outside of the P2/Clemson to have over 3m viewers. I'd love to see more of that, whether it's OOC in the future, ACC, or big 12 matters little to me.

I thought about your methodology here and came up with the following -

When there is one P-5 in a State it gets 100% of the State
If 2 the first one gets 55% and the second gets 45% of the State
If 3 then first one gets 45%, the second gets 35% and the third gets 20%
If 4 then the first one gets 40%, 2nd gets 30%, third 20%, 4th 10%
No more award of value at 5th in a State.

The current ACC state footprint population is 109 million but using the above it falls to 76.4 million. The future B12 footprint is 79 million but it falls to just 26.15 million using the above formula. Texas and TAMU take 70% of the value out of Texas using this formula. Florida, FSU, and Miami take 90% out of Florida. OU and Ohio State and Utah take 55% of the value out of Oklahoma. Ohio, and Utah.

You can make money on the third school in a larger state but where is the line? A fourth can probably only make money in a massive State like Florida, California, and Texas.

It's about viewership and engagement and the acc has that

If the following 6 B12 schools left for the Pacific you could have a nice Pacific 16:

NW - WSU, Washington, Oregon, OSU, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona State
SE - Iowa State, Kansas, Ok State, Houston, TT, TCU, Colorado, Arizona

For academic/religious reasons BYU and Baylor can't coexist in the same conference with Cal and Stanford. K-State is redundant. Cincy, UCF, and West Virginia are simply too far away.

(10-10-2022 09:27 PM)Kyle Mack Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 08:29 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  What nobody talks about is how much recruiting is going to drop off in the XII with UT and OU no longer part of the conference.

NIL is going to be levels below the SEC.

Are you talking about the other Big 12 schools? It won't impact their recruiting. Cincy, Houston and UCF will certainly see a positive bump.

NIL is a huge wildcard, I don't know that conference will be as much of a determining factor as "how many wealthy alumni who care about football do you have". In the case of UH then all it takes is 1, at bama or A&M it's a group. If I had to guess, I'd say that schools like TCU or Baylor will be better off than Tx Tech or Iowa St, and all 4 of them should have a better NIL program than Miss St (unless the next Governor of MS went to Ms State then he might find a creative way of reallocating govt funds to his alma mater instead of Brett Favre's favorite volleyball team).

I think that, rather than heightening current inequality in CFB, NIL will combine with the Transfer Portal to lead to a long-term leveling of the playing field.

(10-10-2022 09:30 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 09:27 PM)Kyle Mack Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 08:29 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  What nobody talks about is how much recruiting is going to drop off in the XII with UT and OU no longer part of the conference.

NIL is going to be levels below the SEC.

Are you talking about the other Big 12 schools? It won't impact their recruiting. Cincy, Houston and UCF will certainly see a positive bump.

Ok but what about the rest of the conference. Plus Houston will bea bottom feeder.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilman_Fertitta

https://www.texastribune.org/2015/09/03/...athletics/

https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news...ising.html

UH is going to be relevant as long as Fertitta wants them to. He's no Phil Knight, but he has enough. They stole Holgerson a few years ago from WV b/c Fertitta donated his entire salary, which is just one of many examples of how a motivated booster can basically build his own College Athletics team these days. And that was before NIL and unlimited Transfers.

*sees title of thread*
*sees name of member who created thread*
*sees who OP roots for*

(10-10-2022 10:20 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  If the following 6 B12 schools left for the Pacific you could have a nice Pacific 16:

NW - WSU, Washington, Oregon, OSU, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona State
SE - Iowa State, Kansas, Ok State, Houston, TT, TCU, Colorado, Arizona

For academic/religious reasons BYU and Baylor can't coexist in the same conference with Cal and Stanford. K-State is redundant. Cincy, UCF, and West Virginia are simply too far away.

1. Who is going to pay the $80m exit fee for the big 12 teams?
2. Why would any of the big 12 teams leave, even if there was no exit fee, when all signs point to a significantly better media deal for the big 12 than for the pac?
3. It would be hilarious if the Pac managed to pull this off though...I'm just thinking about how Larry Scott killed that deal 12 years ago of OU/A&M/tx/OSU/tech/CU to the Pac. Why take those 6 when you can have Iowa st, KU, UH, Tech and TCU? Oh, and you have to lose USCLA in the interim, too. This really shows how far the Pac has fallen, that their absolute ridiculously low probability best case scenario is a bunch of bottom feeders from the old big 12, and a couple of schools that were g5 just a few years ago.

edit: there's no academic reason for Stanford and Cal to exclude Baylor or BYU but accept UH or Tech. Or jeez, TCU isn't even in the top 1000. At least I couldn't find them.

https://www.shanghairanking.com/rankings/arwu/2022

And there's no religious reason, really, it's just that Stanford (not Cal) is incredibly picky about the institutions with which they choose to associate. Stanford blocked texas back in '90, and a few times over the years they've blocked various combinations of big8/12/SWC/BYU teams. Stanford has the most Pac blood on their hands, much more than Larry Scott or any other single entity.

The Pac wouldn't be excited about BYU for the same reason that the big 12 would be lukewarm about Utah: Utah is a 1 horse town, it's a waste to have 2 schools in a state with only 3m people. But, I still think they'd want BYU and Baylor over TCU and UH.

(10-10-2022 09:52 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The Big 12 is in a great place. They have enough members that even a loss of 2-4 members wouldn’t endanger them and no one is a clear flight risk.

If the PAC 10 gets raided again, the Big 12 is in the position to snatch up the best pieces left.

If the ACC were to lose 4 or more members I think the Big 12 is in a good position to offer them a merger or cooperation deal.

Why would the leftover ACC schools merge with the big 12? ACC schools would rather poach the big 12 instead

(10-10-2022 11:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 09:30 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 09:27 PM)Kyle Mack Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 08:29 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  What nobody talks about is how much recruiting is going to drop off in the XII with UT and OU no longer part of the conference.

NIL is going to be levels below the SEC.

Are you talking about the other Big 12 schools? It won't impact their recruiting. Cincy, Houston and UCF will certainly see a positive bump.

Ok but what about the rest of the conference. Plus Houston will bea bottom feeder.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilman_Fertitta

https://www.texastribune.org/2015/09/03/...athletics/

https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news...ising.html

UH is going to be relevant as long as Fertitta wants them to. He's no Phil Knight, but he has enough. They stole Holgerson a few years ago from WV b/c Fertitta donated his entire salary, which is just one of many examples of how a motivated booster can basically build his own College Athletics team these days. And that was before NIL and unlimited Transfers.

They're whole city is dominated by Texas A&M and Texas fans. Plus they can't even Fill up their own stadium.

(10-11-2022 12:06 AM)C-USAForever Wrote:  Why would the leftover ACC schools merge with the big 12? ACC schools would rather poach the big 12 instead

Because the leftovers' values, after the B1G's and SEC's raid in or before ~2034, won't be much. So can't draw substantial new members, thus "merging" into the Big XII will be their best option. If each is offered membership.

Plenty of threads on here going into the details. The big battle between the SEC and B1G will be over UNC, IMHO.

(10-11-2022 12:06 AM)C-USAForever Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 09:52 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The Big 12 is in a great place. They have enough members that even a loss of 2-4 members wouldn’t endanger them and no one is a clear flight risk.

If the PAC 10 gets raided again, the Big 12 is in the position to snatch up the best pieces left.

If the ACC were to lose 4 or more members I think the Big 12 is in a good position to offer them a merger or cooperation deal.

Why would the leftover ACC schools merge with the big 12? ACC schools would rather poach the big 12 instead

For arguments sake, please state the leftover ACC schools that would be poaching Big 12 schools in your scenario. Please create the rump ACC that has the power to poach the Big 12. I will try not to laugh. I promise.

Oklahoma State and maybe a Houston, Kansas State and Iowa State all could get a call to SEC. SEC does not care about media markets. Oklahoma State does bring in the viewers when they play Oklahoma.

Big 12 better play it smart and do go after Boise State and Memphis and be just like SEC. Out of the 4 corner states? Only Arizona State and UTAH brings the tv viewers. I could see the Big 10 to expand with all AAU schools.

PAC 12:
Oregon
California
Stanford
Washington
Utah
Arizona
Colorado

Big 12:
Oklahoma
Texas
Kansas

SEC:
Florida
Missouri
Vanderbilt

ACC:
UNC
Virginia
Duke
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Syracuse

Others:
Buffalo
UC-Davis
Stony Brook
Rice
Tulane

Without a new TV deal, the ACC cannot expand their footprint. But if somehow the conference could get a new deal, the bellcows in the ACC would get their chance to bolt without penalty. So it's not going to happen for another 10-12 years.

(10-10-2022 10:01 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:51 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:37 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:21 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  I don't understand why so many B12 fans think that they will be the third best conference. The ACC can come and take WVU and Cincy very easily and the B12 will be looking for scraps again. I mean the B12 doesn't even have its own NETWORK. Unlike the ACC. Legit I feel like B12 fans should really pipe down. I saw PAC-12 fans doing the same thing last year and we all saw what happened.

I do not care one bit for the big 12 or any of their teams, but I'd sure rather be a big 12 fan than a Pac or ACC fan these days.

The Pac has been raided once, with a decent chance that they'll be raided again now, or in a decade, or some time in between. The ACC has not been raided yet but they certainly will be as soon their GoR is over with.

The big 12 is likely to be on par or very nearly so with the ACC as currently constitued in their next contract that starts in 2025, and very likely to be somewhere in the $5-10m range ahead of the Pac even assuming no more Pac schools leave. The next time the P2 feeds, it's overwhelmingly likely that they take 2-8 schools from the ACC and Pac, thereby indirectly strengthening the big 12 indirectly.

Oh, and the next big 12 deal would need to be around $10m per school worse then the ACC's deal to set any of their schools up to get raided due to their exit fees. The ACC has no exit fees fyi. So you have:

ACC: 14 year GoR + 3 years exit fees. Nobody is leaving there for a long time.
big 12: 2 years exit fees, currently around $80m, and they've lost 6 schools in 13 years. The poster child for a picked over conference.
Pac: no exit fee, just lost their 1 really great market and 2 highest profile schools, geographically isolated. Things do not look good for them.

You can make an argument, perhaps not a good one but at least an argument, that the ACC will only lose a couple of schools and will end up competitive with the big 12 after the next P2 expansion. However, the Pac is in dire straits. They have 4 interlopers with wandering eyes in the 4C4, 2 low value schools in WSU and OSU, and 4 potentially valuable schools in the PN4 that all want to go to the B1G. It's really hard to see a long term path forward for the Pac... They need the B1G to decide against adding any more Pac schools, even UW, plus they need to big 12 rights deal to come in a quite a bit lower than expected. It would help if the ACC grabs a couple big 12 teams. None of those are impossible on their own, but all of them combined is quite unlikely.

Ok I see your point but in the end my question is why do so many people assume that the B12 could steal from the ACC? There would be no freaking way that schools like Duke, Wake Forrest, Miami, and Pitt will play in the B12. Also WVU and cincy would be in a much better traveling situation as well.

Just like in the case of the big 12, I have zero interest in any school in the ACC. These are just my thoughts on the situation.

The next big 12 deal is a common topic of speculation on these boards. If you took a broad range of opinions, you'd likely end up with something in the $30-40m per school per year range. Even if it comes out at the very bottom of that, $30m, their exit fee would still be $60m, and with their next contract starting in 2025 there's a good chance that they they're halfway through their next NEXT contract before the ACC GoR expires. In the meantime, the ACC is certain to lose their 2 highest revenue schools, and probably losing another 2-6 on top of that. If it's just FSU/Clemson and nobody else leaves, then the ACC is probably on par or at least close to it with the big 12. However, UNC also seems quite likely to go, along with a minimum of 1 more. If the ACC loses their top 4 then the big 12 would be a very attractive landing spot for the best of the left behind teams.

edit: as far as the population changes in big states:

texas: fastest growing state in total population, 3rd fastest growing as a %, also one of the premier football-focused states in the country. Also, 1/3 of the conference is in texas and their HQ is in Dallas, it's very much a Texas-focused conference.
Florida: #9 as a %, #2 in absolute, 2nd best state behind texas in the entire country for football
Ok, Ks, Ia - all in the 20's and 30's, very close to avg % population increase over past decade
Utah: fastest growing state in the country as a %, #12 in total even though it's starting from a low population
Ohio: lower population growth % than Ks, probably around #40 as a %, but its #23 in absolute growth b/c it's such a large state
WV: -3.2%, last place in the 50 states, though that was only a total of 59k people b/c it's also the lowest population in the big 12

Overall I'd rate the big 12's trend as a strong #2 of the theoretical P5, with only the SEC footprint stronger (in part due to their very strong presence in Texas). The Pac footprint might have more growth, in fact I'm confident that it does, but it's also growing away from football and towards other sports (or things other than sports).

Let's compare the big 12 footprint with the ACC's:
North Carolina: #16 as a %, #6 in absolute terms, a clear winner, though not very efficient with 4 schools here.
Virginia: #19 as a %, #10 in absolute terms, a clear winner. Only 2 schools here, and they dominate the state.
Forida: #9 as a %, #2 in absolute terms. 2nd best state in the country for Fooball, and they have 2/3 of the trifecta there
South Carolina: ahead of NC and VA in % terms, but behind them in absolute terms, but they have the#1 school there. Might be the ACC's most efficient state (strong position and only 1 school in state)
Georgia: over 1m total population increase in past decade, even ahead of North Carolina, but a very weak position in this state. GT doesn't even carry Atlanta, and might be the 6th or 7th biggest school in the rest of the state.
rest of the states are pretty similar to the midwestern big 12 states

So, lets call the midwestern states from both conferences a draw. The ACC dominates in NC/VA, that's 1.5m people added that are basically all ACC country fans. In SC the ACC has a strong position but it goes head to head with the SEC in that state and region, let's call that state a split. In Florida, the ACC is certain to lose FSU and might also lose Miami, that's probably a big 12 advantage long term but lets call it a draw for right now. And, really, neither conference will have a big presence when the P2 has 75% + of the total fans in the state with just FSU/UF. Oh, and in NC once you take out UNC, that's at least 1/2 and perhaps more of the state's fans. And Clemson leaving eliminates SC all together. So, post-feeding the ACC looks more like:

Some presence in NC, unsure how much, probably 50% at best
Some presence in VA, unsure how much, could be 100%, or 50%, or 0%, really no idea right now
Some presence perhaps in FL, but likely very small and only in the Miami area if any at all, maybe 1/6 of the state at best
weak presence in GA
no presence in SC

The ACC is going to look very weak immediately after they lose their top schools, and perhaps even weaker when you take into account the long term prospects for their remaining schools. If I'm, say, Miami, GT, Duke, NC State, Pitt, Louisville and Va Tech, and we just lost our 4 best schools to the P2, I'm thinking that joining the big 12 looks an awful lot more appealing than staying in a conference with a bunch of small schools, private schools, or clear 3rd/4th schools in a 2 school state. Though that will come down to what their media rights deal looks like post-2036, they could very well end up with something just as surprising as what we're seeing with the big 12 recently. And, academically, it will depend upon what the big 12 looks like then. Are they still the current 12 members? Did they steal any of the 4c4 from the Pac? What if the big 12 gets ASU and CU now, then takes GT and Miami? At that point, they will have some prestigious academic institutions, certainly enough to offer cover for any more ACC schools that are on the fence. And as for Pitt? Their Backyard Brawl this year was amazing, it was in fact the only game so far outside of the P2/Clemson to have over 3m viewers. I'd love to see more of that, whether it's OOC in the future, ACC, or big 12 matters little to me.

I thought about your methodology here and came up with the following -

When there is one P-5 in a State it gets 100% of the State
If 2 the first one gets 55% and the second gets 45% of the State
If 3 then first one gets 45%, the second gets 35% and the third gets 20%
If 4 then the first one gets 40%, 2nd gets 30%, third 20%, 4th 10%
No more award of value at 5th in a State.

The current ACC state footprint population is 109 million but using the above it falls to 76.4 million. The future B12 footprint is 79 million but it falls to just 26.15 million using the above formula. Texas and TAMU take 70% of the value out of Texas using this formula. Florida, FSU, and Miami take 90% out of Florida. OU and Ohio State and Utah take 55% of the value out of Oklahoma. Ohio, and Utah.

You can make money on the third school in a larger state but where is the line? A fourth can probably only make money in a massive State like Florida, California, and Texas.

You have to be a complete idiot to think that Boston College is getting 100% of viewers from Massachusetts, even though it's the only Power 5 school in the state. (And in fact the only 2 other FBS teams in New England are beyond terrible UCONN and UMASS teams.)

And BYU has a bigger fanbase than Utah. (Certainly nationally and probably in Utah as well.)

(10-10-2022 09:54 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 09:45 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 07:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  The ACC has not been raided yet

Someone forgeting the Terps? "... not been raided again" maybe?

Not wishing the ACC more pain, but the trend is clear. Fortunately they seem to have some time to enjoy, unless a vote is taken to dissolve.

Nope the b12 is more vulnerable than you think. Stop drinking the kool-aid. TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas will not reach the viewership level that the ACC will have

You're right. They will be well above the ACC viewership once Clemson, FSU and Miami leave.

(10-11-2022 12:09 AM)C-USAForever Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 11:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 09:30 PM)C-USAForever Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 09:27 PM)Kyle Mack Wrote:  

(10-10-2022 08:29 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  What nobody talks about is how much recruiting is going to drop off in the XII with UT and OU no longer part of the conference.

NIL is going to be levels below the SEC.

Are you talking about the other Big 12 schools? It won't impact their recruiting. Cincy, Houston and UCF will certainly see a positive bump.

Ok but what about the rest of the conference. Plus Houston will bea bottom feeder.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilman_Fertitta

https://www.texastribune.org/2015/09/03/...athletics/

https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news...ising.html

UH is going to be relevant as long as Fertitta wants them to. He's no Phil Knight, but he has enough. They stole Holgerson a few years ago from WV b/c Fertitta donated his entire salary, which is just one of many examples of how a motivated booster can basically build his own College Athletics team these days. And that was before NIL and unlimited Transfers.

They're whole city is dominated by Texas A&M and Texas fans. Plus they can't even Fill up their own stadium.

Obviously, you've never been in Houston. Stick with your opinions on DC.

IMO, the nB12 has the "safety of the unwanted".

They are safe from being raided because none of their schools add value to the B1G, SEC or ACC. Of course it also means they aren't very valuable.

One exception: Kansas. With their recent football success, Kansas just might be nudging on to the B1G radar. Maybe.

Losing UCF, WVU, and UC and replacing them with Arizona, Arizona State, CU, and Utah is a net positive for the media contract. Plus that is 3 more schools paying a crazy high exit fee. Add in Boise with the guarantee that the get their facility improvements done ASAP makes for a damn solid western division. Plus you have UNM and Colorado State waiting in the wings if one of them could ever get the ship turned around. It's no P2 but would be on par or better than what a reconstituted ACC or PAC could ever come up with.

Boise
UA
ASU
BYU
Utah
CU
Tech

TCU
Houston
Baylor
OSU
KU
KSU
ISU