(09-05-2022 11:02 AM)thxjoenovak Wrote: (09-05-2022 09:37 AM)Big Red Wrote: (09-04-2022 11:22 PM)HawaiiToNIU Wrote: (09-04-2022 10:40 PM)BigChilla Wrote: (09-04-2022 04:49 PM)MiamiHuskie Wrote: An FCS team was a big test for our D.
That was so unexpected…the coaches are so bad on defense. Essentially you have to ask yourself can they get better? And the answer is “maybe”
That said Tulsa has some issues too…but they can pass. We can’t stop the pass in our current state.
Tulsa 49
NIU 52
Because…why not?
It'll be close. But I don't think they'll score that high. Hammock will force them to control the clock. Running the ball with all 11 in the box. 38-35. NIU!
When's the last time we played a low scoring game?
I get what you're saying but he's tried that in the past only to have the defense give up quick scores.
What’s “low scoring “?
O/U is 57. Combined with Tulsa -6 =
Tulsa 31.5
NIU. 25.5
If I could bet I’d take the over for sure.
To answer my own question, there were four games last year that I would think qualify (but I had to look it up to know).
I'm not counting the Maine game we won 41-14 because I'm not all that interested in how we played against and FCS school that went 6-5 even if they beat UMass.
With that said, we did this:
Won @ Georgia Tech - 22-21
Won vs Eastern Michigan - 27-20
Won @ Toledo - 22-20
Then, in the last regular season game we:
Won vs Kent State - 41-23
Fwiw, I hesitated on including the GT game being it was the 1st game of the year and I think there were a lot of things that happened in that game (for both teams) that didn't necessarily go forward into the year, but I think GT was worse than we realized before the season started so...well...I'm including it. It happened, it wasn't an outlier like the mismatch with Michigan and...its in there.
I'm basically looking at anything under 4 TDs as a "low scoring game" (and I'm looking at points allowed). We gave up 27 @ Buffalo but that game would require us to score 4 TDs so, I'm disqualifying it from "low scoring".
Hey, if we score 6 TDs, I'm all happy about it, I just would like to see us not HAVE to score 6 TDs to win a game.
I think if you can guarantee a win (or have a really good shot at winning most of your games) with 3 TDs and a FG, then you're going to do pretty good. Basically, holding your opponent below 24 points.
Last year, we gave up 33.7 (and scored 32.2) with the outlier being the Michigan game that really throws off the averages. Without that game in there, things look better (31.4 PA vs 33.9). At 31.4 PA/game, we have to score 4 TDs and a FG just to win each game (on average, obviously). We scored barely over that (basically add in the equivalent of a safety).
If you lower that number by a TD, that would be almost ideal.
After 1 game, we've held that average (34 points) of scoring and decreased the PA (27). If you want to look at Maine from last year (not a fair comparison but the only FCS schools on each schedule) we got worse on both fronts.
Things aren't looking positively going forward. But...we did see Rudolph develop last year and something like that can happen this year as well.
We clearly have the RBs but the loss of Rat probably is much more significant that we want to admit.
IF...we get a WR to really emerge and the line plays to its expectations, I'd almost say keeping pace with last year's offense would be a great accomplishment.
However, the defense MUST improve. I'm not sure this offense will be as good as last year so that means if there is a slight dip there, it has to be offset by an improvement on the other side of the ball. A big improvement would be really welcome but I'm not sure that's realistic.
