So if ESPN gives the PAC 12 enough to keep schools from leaving what will the Big 12 do?
Nothing? There was all these talks before all of this about the Big 12 having a second round of additions but after reading tons of information it seems all it's about is money. The only way anyone adds anyone is if it brings the overall value of the conference up, correct?
This immediately eliminates Memphis, SMU, USF, Colorado State, Boise, I mean literally every single team mention before all this PAC mess I can't imagine adding any value whatsoever.
So why would the Big 12 ever add anyone who decreased the value as a whole of the conference?
(08-14-2022 02:41 AM)grapes Wrote: So if ESPN gives the PAC 12 enough to keep schools from leaving what will the Big 12 do?
Nothing? There was all these talks before all of this about the Big 12 having a second round of additions but after reading tons of information it seems all it's about is money. The only way anyone adds anyone is if it brings the overall value of the conference up, correct?
This immediately eliminates Memphis, SMU, USF, Colorado State, Boise, I mean literally every single team mention before all this PAC mess I can't imagine adding any value whatsoever.
So why would the Big 12 ever add anyone who decreased the value as a whole of the conference?
Short answer - they won't.
Which is why the B12 was trying to pull some of the P12 schools. However, I personally no longer think we'll see more movement for a few years now, especially after ESPN pulled out of negotiating for the B1G. I honestly think the P12 is going to do what the B12 did after our last round of defections and stay at 10 and split the pie that way.
The problem I see is Im not sure we will be much over 30 million ourselves. I thought there was a small shot of breaking well over that if CBS or NBC got shut out of the Big10. ESPN would still want a piece of both the Pac12 and Big12---that would leave ESPN, FOX, and either CBS or NBC likely bidding for Pac12 and Big12 content---with the Big12 being more attractive to NBC's more central time zone centric "Notre Dame shoulder programming" strategy (past history says CBS-OTA college football strategy would also zero in on the central/eastern time zone). But with CBS and NBC likely out---I think that 30+/- million range might be where we end up as well.
(This post was last modified: 08-14-2022 12:39 PM by Attackcoog.)
So if ESPN gives the PAC 12 enough to keep schools from leaving what will the Big 12 do?
Nothing? There was all these talks before all of this about the Big 12 having a second round of additions but after reading tons of information it seems all it's about is money. The only way anyone adds anyone is if it brings the overall value of the conference up, correct?
This immediately eliminates Memphis, SMU, USF, Colorado State, Boise, I mean literally every single team mention before all this PAC mess I can't imagine adding any value whatsoever.
So why would the Big 12 ever add anyone who decreased the value as a whole of the conference?
The only way I can see the Big 12 adding G5 schools before its next TV contract is if westward expansion and and the late TV slot are integral parts of their future media strategy. In that case, I could see them adding two more schools -- likely San Diego State and Boise State -- to give the league a western home game every week to put in that late TV slot.
I would still like to see the conference move to 16 schools with four schools to the west and four to the east of the central eight. But I don't see there being enough money in such a move to make it viable.
B12 won't get much above the 30 mil, and Pac will likely be below that #. That said Pac schools wont jump for a couple mil per year.
I only see one-way B12 grabs any Pac schools, Lets say Pac gets 28.5 and B12 expects to get 31 or 32, That wouldn't cause a jump. But OR, WA, and maybe stanford force uneven split, or a short contract <5 years and short or no GOR. So lesser schools don't get 28.5 but instead get 26. All of a sudden the difference isn't 2.5 mil its 5 mil, and will be longer term, with GOR safety net, that may be enough.
(08-15-2022 08:20 AM)goodknightfl Wrote: B12 won't get much above the 30 mil, and Pac will likely be below that #. That said Pac schools wont jump for a couple mil per year.
I only see one-way B12 grabs any Pac schools, Lets say Pac gets 28.5 and B12 expects to get 31 or 32, That wouldn't cause a jump. But OR, WA, and maybe stanford force uneven split, or a short contract <5 years and short or no GOR. So lesser schools don't get 28.5 but instead get 26. All of a sudden the difference isn't 2.5 mil its 5 mil, and will be longer term, with GOR safety net, that may be enough.
Agree unequal revenue split could damage the pac but as long as Stanford/Oregon/Washington get the money they think they deserve they may not care. If it goes to a vote I count 5 for: the mentioned 3 plus OSU and wsu (in order to preserve the conference not for more money). Maybe not enough to pass unless Berkeley join in.
Also any team leaving would be replaced by a g5: the high earners would still make more while the new g5 adds would make less than those departing the new g5 adds would still make more as pac than as g5s.
If no one else has bid on the PAC besides ESPN, why would they raise their offer? Wouldn’t that just teach conferences to always reject offers during the exclusive window? Or am I missing something?
We don't really know yet that no one else will bid, it is assumed. And you know what assume means. That said ESPN is in different place than 2 weeks ago, and may bump it a bit to keep it. I still think they will be below 30mil.
(08-15-2022 06:01 PM)goodknightfl Wrote: We don't really know yet that no one else will bid, it is assumed. And you know what assume means. That said ESPN is in different place than 2 weeks ago, and may bump it a bit to keep it. I still think they will be below 30mil.
wasn't the first offer @245M - short and the second @320M, 12 years with a GOR? I think they have the $320M on the table?
(08-15-2022 06:01 PM)goodknightfl Wrote: We don't really know yet that no one else will bid, it is assumed. And you know what assume means. That said ESPN is in different place than 2 weeks ago, and may bump it a bit to keep it. I still think they will be below 30mil.
wasn't the first offer @245M - short and the second @320M, 12 years with a GOR? I think they have the $320M on the table?
There's also the assumption of revenue sharing within the conference. I believe it has changed from "unequal" to "incentivized." A lot of moving parts to get finalized...
(08-15-2022 07:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote: 320 would be 32mil but I don't think there is any way OR/WA go for a 12 year GOR. You would be good getting 5 year past them.
100% this. Absolutely no chance those two schools will tie themselves to anything more than 5 years and I honestly think that is stretching it.
(08-15-2022 07:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote: 320 would be 32mil but I don't think there is any way OR/WA go for a 12 year GOR. You would be good getting 5 year past them.
100% this. Absolutely no chance those two schools will tie themselves to anything more than 5 years and I honestly think that is stretching it.
right - i should have been clearer, or written a book, like some of gang on here - IF (big if) espn sticks to these two options, the PAC gets a low ball offer, or, a decent (?) one, for 12 years and a GOR.
like most of us hear, there are PAC schools that won't sign a GOR, and there are PAC schools on both ends of the unequal distribution issue. espn may offer some type of blended format, but i don't see how the PAC, or several of its schools, comes out of this happy. it may take a few months, but i don't think the PAC's future is too bright.
(08-15-2022 07:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote: 320 would be 32mil but I don't think there is any way OR/WA go for a 12 year GOR. You would be good getting 5 year past them.
100% this. Absolutely no chance those two schools will tie themselves to anything more than 5 years and I honestly think that is stretching it.
right - i should have been clearer, or written a book, like some of gang on here - IF (big if) espn sticks to these two options, the PAC gets a low ball offer, or, a decent (?) one, for 12 years and a GOR.
like most of us hear, there are PAC schools that won't sign a GOR, and there are PAC schools on both ends of the unequal distribution issue. espn may offer some type of blended format, but i don't see how the PAC, or several of its schools, comes out of this happy. it may take a few months, but i don't think the PAC's future is too bright.
I agree with you (and thank you for not writing a novella ) I can't remember which P12 media "insider" said it (was either Canzano or Wilner) but they were basically saying the P12 surviving as is was about a 4.5 point favorite. I liked the analogy. There's a chance they stay together, but it's far from a sure thing.
(08-15-2022 11:44 AM)Johnny Incognito Wrote: If no one else has bid on the PAC besides ESPN, why would they raise their offer? Wouldn’t that just teach conferences to always reject offers during the exclusive window? Or am I missing something?
The offer could go up if ESPN tells the PAC12 who to add and they do. Don't see that much value in adding G5 schools though so the PAC may stay at 10 for a while until Washington, Oregon, or Stanford see if they eventually get the B10 brass ring invite. Until then there is too much instability in the conference while waiting on the B-10 and with the B12 overtures to Arizona, ASU, Utah, and Colorado.
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Dodd: B12 Zeroing in on Arizona, at least
) I can't remember which P12 media "insider" said it (was either Canzano or Wilner) but they were basically saying the P12 surviving as is was about a 4.5 point favorite. I liked the analogy. There's a chance they stay together, but it's far from a sure thing.
