Memphis is basketball centric, that reason alone would keep this out of conference for us

I thought ECU to the SBC was a longshot. Must be the offseason if fans are considering Memphis a viable option.

In reality the SBC's options (if needed) would be WKU, MTSU, LA Tech and likely in that order.

(07-07-2022 07:32 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  I thought ECU to the SBC was a longshot. Must be the offseason if fans are considering Memphis a viable option.

In reality the SBC's options (if needed) would be WKU, MTSU, LA Tech and likely in that order.

You're probably right, but if I'm Gill, I'm not sure I'd choose MTSU over Missouri State. The flame has gone out in Empty Sue, seemingly. Their department barely keeps them going according to their fans, and between Memphis and Tennessee, they have a long way to go before they even begin to compete with those two for fan support.

Missouri State has better basketball, comparable baseball, is hungry, wants to be here, and has already carved out a spot out in their state for themselves. Is closer to Ark State. If there is any more realignment at the G5 level, I expect they will move up to FBS regardless. They were already on CUSA's short list, but said no. I doubt they would say no again, if the SBC remains closed to them.

I don't see the SBC adding WKU or MTSU. They literally just had the chance to do so and added JMU instead. They won't add any value in ESPNs eyes. The only way they are added is if somehow the SBC is raided and sort of merges with CUSA.

If the SBC remains together (which I don't see anyone getting poached), then the most realistic thing would be no expansion. The only way we expand again would be if someone like ECU wants it. And that only happens if the AAC top teams (SMU and Memphis) are taken and ECU has the choice between AAC lite and SBC. If the tv $$$$ is really 2-5M different right now, that gap will close the second SMU and Memphis are gone. Then any reason ECU has to stay in the AAC is gone.

But I think we may see some sort of PAC 12/ Big 12 merger. Whatever is left of that (poor Oregon St and WSU), will either just straight join the MWC or try and pull the best from MWC and teams like Memphis and SMU. They will stagger on in P5 name only. Or maybe if the SEC and Big 10 take FSU/Clemson/etc from the ACC and then they add someone like Memphis etc. Regardless I don't see much coming all the way done to the SBC. Even if the AAC loses Memphis and SMU would they really expand again? The tv money is gone and not worth SBC joining and it is less regionalized.

Bottom line is the SBC was very smart in regionalizing itself with teams like App and Marshall that command high tv ratings for G5 teams. Sure TXST is on an island but oh freaking well. We seem happy to be only and no other schools seem interested in kicking us out.

(07-07-2022 07:32 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  I thought ECU to the SBC was a longshot. Must be the offseason if fans are considering Memphis a viable option.

In reality the SBC's options (if needed) would be WKU, MTSU, LA Tech and likely in that order.

We were all saying Marshall was a long shot just 2 years ago too.

(07-07-2022 08:43 AM)slycat Wrote:  Bottom line is the SBC was very smart in regionalizing itself with teams like App and Marshall that command high tv ratings for G5 teams. Sure TXST is on an island but oh freaking well. We seem happy to be only and no other schools seem interested in kicking us out.

The AAC put a lot of Texas eggs in one basket. If their new league underperforms, or the Sun Belt surpasses them, Texas State could be the defacto G5 of interest as the lone representative of the Lone Star State battling a bunch of non-Texan SBC hooligans

(07-06-2022 03:43 PM)Herdfan1991 Wrote:  I agree that an ECU/Memphis pairing is the only thing that makes sense to me. It’s unlikely that both or even one would make the switch as Memphis has B12 aspirations and ECU would have to pay exit/entrance fees to make the same or even a little less money. I’d love to have them though.

Just waive the entrance fees. If the AAC TV deal implodes in a few years... which I suspect it will ECU will be in the Sunbelt. ESPN has been very generous the the remaining AAC8 allowing us to keep our $7M payout. It happened by making the CUSA6 split UCF, UH and UC shares... so about $3.5M for each of the 6. I don't envision a scenario where those 6 schools OUT PERFORM $7M per school which is what will be required to retain $7M for everybody once this TV deal is up. Nobody's going to want to be in an AAC that distributes TV money disproportionately.

A BigPac merger is bad for any future hopes of adding Memphis to the Sun Belt. If they (BP) do that they’ll be full-up and will have no need to back fill, leaving Memphis and SMU in the AAC. If the Pac shows some stones and doesn’t lose anyone to the XII, then Memphis and SMU could be on the XII’s radar.

If the ACC loses a few then both Memphis and ECU *could* be in play but who knows if ACC presidents and chancellors even think those two girls are pretty enough to buy them a drink. The ACC could choose to double down on basketball and markets and think more about UConn and Temple. They’d be digging their own grave as a football conference but in these situations executives often make bad decisions. Or they could go nuts and invite Navy to gain control over the Army-Navy game media rights.

I also think the only way you get ECU is if you can also get Memphis too. I’m not sure how closely those two schools are tied to one another (any ECU fans reading can answer), but getting them both as a packaged deal would go a long way to assuaging both fan bases’ fears that they aren’t “stepping down”.

(07-07-2022 09:09 AM)ODU-Z8 Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 08:43 AM)slycat Wrote:  Bottom line is the SBC was very smart in regionalizing itself with teams like App and Marshall that command high tv ratings for G5 teams. Sure TXST is on an island but oh freaking well. We seem happy to be only and no other schools seem interested in kicking us out.

The AAC put a lot of Texas eggs in one basket. If their new league underperforms, or the Sun Belt surpasses them, Texas State could be the defacto G5 of interest as the lone representative of the Lone Star State battling a bunch of non-Texan hooligans

Maybe. Being with UTSA would be a plus and the ease of getting to games at Rice is nice too. Otherwise, AAC isn't for me. Take away SMU and Memphis and it is even worse. I could see our admin being happy to regionalize itself and a few fans but in reality we've never had a relationship with UNT or Rice. UTSA is it. My greater fear would be if somehow our admin thought it would be worth hanging out with SHSU or whatever other FCS Texas moveups exist. As long as the SBC has a much superior TV deal, that won't happen thankfully.

(07-07-2022 09:19 AM)APPdiesel Wrote:  A BigPac merger is bad for any future hopes of adding Memphis to the Sun Belt. If they (BP) do that they’ll be full-up and will have no need to back fill, leaving Memphis and SMU in the AAC. If the Pac shows some stones and doesn’t lose anyone to the XII, then Memphis and SMU could be on the XII’s radar.

If the ACC loses a few then both Memphis and ECU *could* be on their radar but who knows if ACC presidents and chancellors even think those two girls are pretty enough to buy them a drink. The ACC could choose to double down on basketball and markets and think more about UConn and Temple. They’d be digging their own grave as a football conference but in these situations executives often make bad decisions. Or they could go nuts and invite Navy to gain control over the Army-Navy game media rights.

I also think the only way you get ECU is if you can also get Memphis too. I’m not sure how closely those two schools are tied to one another (any ECU fans reading can answer), but getting them both as a packaged deal would go a long way to assuaging both fan bases’ fears that they aren’t “stepping down”.

The ECU & Memphis fanbases like and respect each other, as we have been in conferences together for what feels like forever... but we are very different institutions, and I don't think the Memphis administration thinks much of ECU. I highly doubt Memphis would weigh what ECU is doing in any of their decisions.

(07-07-2022 09:19 AM)APPdiesel Wrote:  A BigPac merger is bad for any future hopes of adding Memphis to the Sun Belt. If they (BP) do that they’ll be full-up and will have no need to back fill, leaving Memphis and SMU in the AAC. If the Pac shows some stones and doesn’t lose anyone to the XII, then Memphis and SMU could be on the XII’s radar.

If the ACC loses a few then both Memphis and ECU *could* be in play but who knows if ACC presidents and chancellors even think those two girls are pretty enough to buy them a drink. The ACC could choose to double down on basketball and markets and think more about UConn and Temple. They’d be digging their own grave as a football conference but in these situations executives often make bad decisions. Or they could go nuts and invite Navy to gain control over the Army-Navy game media rights.

I also think the only way you get ECU is if you can also get Memphis too. I’m not sure how closely those two schools are tied to one another (any ECU fans reading can answer), but getting them both as a packaged deal would go a long way to assuaging both fan bases’ fears that they aren’t “stepping down”.

Prior to the BCS and CUSA we played independent schedules that consisted of a lot of USM, Memphis, Cincy, Syracuse, WVU, Temple, etc... the other Eastern independents. The old Liberty Bowl alliance demanded ECU's inclusion b/c we brought pretty big crowds.

ECU's most played opponents

Southern Miss - 39
App State - 32
NCSU - 31
Cincy - 25
Memphis - 24
WVU - 22
VTech - 21
SC - 20
UCF - 20
Temple - 19
UNC - 18

Pet peeve... if you're ever tempted to talk smack about ECU's bowl appearances and conference championships this is something you've got to fully understand. We didn't take the easier path. Sometimes I wish we had.

(07-07-2022 09:27 AM)slycat Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 09:09 AM)ODU-Z8 Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 08:43 AM)slycat Wrote:  Bottom line is the SBC was very smart in regionalizing itself with teams like App and Marshall that command high tv ratings for G5 teams. Sure TXST is on an island but oh freaking well. We seem happy to be only and no other schools seem interested in kicking us out.

The AAC put a lot of Texas eggs in one basket. If their new league underperforms, or the Sun Belt surpasses them, Texas State could be the defacto G5 of interest as the lone representative of the Lone Star State battling a bunch of non-Texan hooligans

Maybe. Being with UTSA would be a plus and the ease of getting to games at Rice is nice too. Otherwise, AAC isn't for me. Take away SMU and Memphis and it is even worse. I could see our admin being happy to regionalize itself and a few fans but in reality we've never had a relationship with UNT or Rice. UTSA is it. My greater fear would be if somehow our admin thought it would be worth hanging out with SHSU or whatever other FCS Texas moveups exist. As long as the SBC has a much superior TV deal, that won't happen thankfully.

What if the MWC offered Tx St, UTEP, UTSA and UNT? I think UTEP and Tx St jump at that. The AAC teams would be tough to sell as they just got to the AAC and would have to presumably pay exit fees.

Also, I thought the AAC newbies were getting $2million per school. The ECU poster says $3.5 million. If so, that's actually not bad and quite a bit more than the SB. I was under the impression the SB teams (rumored to be $1.5 -2m) and the new AAC teams were closer in payouts.

(07-07-2022 09:45 AM)monarx Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 09:27 AM)slycat Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 09:09 AM)ODU-Z8 Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 08:43 AM)slycat Wrote:  Bottom line is the SBC was very smart in regionalizing itself with teams like App and Marshall that command high tv ratings for G5 teams. Sure TXST is on an island but oh freaking well. We seem happy to be only and no other schools seem interested in kicking us out.

The AAC put a lot of Texas eggs in one basket. If their new league underperforms, or the Sun Belt surpasses them, Texas State could be the defacto G5 of interest as the lone representative of the Lone Star State battling a bunch of non-Texan hooligans

Maybe. Being with UTSA would be a plus and the ease of getting to games at Rice is nice too. Otherwise, AAC isn't for me. Take away SMU and Memphis and it is even worse. I could see our admin being happy to regionalize itself and a few fans but in reality we've never had a relationship with UNT or Rice. UTSA is it. My greater fear would be if somehow our admin thought it would be worth hanging out with SHSU or whatever other FCS Texas moveups exist. As long as the SBC has a much superior TV deal, that won't happen thankfully.

What if the MWC offered Tx St, UTEP, UTSA and UNT? I think UTEP and Tx St jump at that. The AAC teams would be tough to sell as they just got to the AAC and would have to presumably pay exit fees.

Also, I thought the AAC newbies were getting $2million per school. The ECU poster says $3.5 million. If so, that's actually not bad and quite a bit more than the SB. I was under the impression the SB teams (rumored to be $1.5 -2m) and the new AAC teams were closer in payouts.

$3.5 mil is the average, like $7 mil is the average for legacy members. It's on an escalating scale. Start at $2+ mil to $5+ mil at the end of the deal in 2031.

(07-07-2022 09:27 AM)slycat Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 09:09 AM)ODU-Z8 Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 08:43 AM)slycat Wrote:  Bottom line is the SBC was very smart in regionalizing itself with teams like App and Marshall that command high tv ratings for G5 teams. Sure TXST is on an island but oh freaking well. We seem happy to be only and no other schools seem interested in kicking us out.

The AAC put a lot of Texas eggs in one basket. If their new league underperforms, or the Sun Belt surpasses them, Texas State could be the defacto G5 of interest as the lone representative of the Lone Star State battling a bunch of non-Texan hooligans

Maybe. Being with UTSA would be a plus and the ease of getting to games at Rice is nice too. Otherwise, AAC isn't for me. Take away SMU and Memphis and it is even worse. I could see our admin being happy to regionalize itself and a few fans but in reality we've never had a relationship with UNT or Rice. UTSA is it. My greater fear would be if somehow our admin thought it would be worth hanging out with SHSU or whatever other FCS Texas moveups exist. As long as the SBC has a much superior TV deal, that won't happen thankfully.

I meant you'd be getting interest as the only Texas university in the Sun Belt. If the AAC falls off and becomes uninteresting, that will affect many of the other Texas G5 schools. People might tune in to you guys, because you would be in the more exciting league.

(07-07-2022 12:00 AM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 10:41 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 10:08 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 09:06 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 03:44 PM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  FWIW (and it isn't worth much) our guy who runs the ECU247 site was asked today "What conference will ECU be in 10 years from now?"

His answer was "SBC"... we'll see how it shakes out. The only thing keeping us in the AAC is the substantial difference in the TV $.

The question on that TV deal is, how much difference is it going to be in a few years when the Houston/Cincy/UCF money goes away?

Its very similar to what happened to CUSA in 2012, and the teams moving over there became convinced they would somehow retain the media value the league had when Memphis etc was in it. Within a few years, they were getting significantly less with far worse travel. Memphis has enough value to keep you guys going for now, but that can only last so long.

Well they lost the #8 DMA in UH, #17 in UCF, and #36 in Cincy. Sure, they gain Charlotte, quasi-Dallas, and San Antonio, (and NO, Rice doesn't maintain the Houston market for the AAC except for Navy) but none of those teams matter worth a mouse turd in their areas and haven't done jack squat on the football field.

Charlotte can't fill their stadium at 15K or whatever it is, Rice is the leading investor in stadium tarp companies, UNT is a perennial also-ran. UAB and FAU could do okay.

But if you remove the AB that Cincy and UCF have brought and the basketball of UH and Cincy... I don't think those six combined could make up for the value of the three lost. And ESPECIALLY if they lose Memphis and SMU.

I have never felt that UNT can really claim the eyeballs in Dallas. They may be in the Dallas market, but 90 percent of that city is going to watch Texas/A&M or other P5 teams.

That is exactly right. None of the teams they added carry any weight in their respective markets except MAYBE UAB.

Birmingham is Auburn/Alabama the entire way. UAB is growing, but it's still a speck in the grand scheme.


I know a lot of people are saying Memphis would want no part in the Sun Belt because our basketball isn't the best, but look at what the AAC is offering now and decide if it's even somewhat appealing after the money goes away. This assumes ECU moves to the Belt as well.

Navy
South Florida
SMU
Temple
Tulane
Tulsa
Wichita State
Rice
North Texas
UTSA
FAU
UAB
Charlotte


So UAB, Wichita State, and Temple are the only real basketball schools there. I'm not saying we have anyone to compare to them, but I also don't think Memphis has much interest in playing in the high school basketball facilities at UTSA either. And this all assumes the Pac-12 or Mountain West doesn't try scooping up a few schools.


I'm not saying Memphis will come, but the basketball appeal of the AAC isn't that much great than the Sun Belt would offer, plus they'd save money on travel.

(07-07-2022 09:44 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 09:19 AM)APPdiesel Wrote:  A BigPac merger is bad for any future hopes of adding Memphis to the Sun Belt. If they (BP) do that they’ll be full-up and will have no need to back fill, leaving Memphis and SMU in the AAC. If the Pac shows some stones and doesn’t lose anyone to the XII, then Memphis and SMU could be on the XII’s radar.

If the ACC loses a few then both Memphis and ECU *could* be in play but who knows if ACC presidents and chancellors even think those two girls are pretty enough to buy them a drink. The ACC could choose to double down on basketball and markets and think more about UConn and Temple. They’d be digging their own grave as a football conference but in these situations executives often make bad decisions. Or they could go nuts and invite Navy to gain control over the Army-Navy game media rights.

I also think the only way you get ECU is if you can also get Memphis too. I’m not sure how closely those two schools are tied to one another (any ECU fans reading can answer), but getting them both as a packaged deal would go a long way to assuaging both fan bases’ fears that they aren’t “stepping down”.

Prior to the BCS and CUSA we played independent schedules that consisted of a lot of USM, Memphis, Cincy, Syracuse, WVU, Temple, etc... the other Eastern independents. The old Liberty Bowl alliance demanded ECU's inclusion b/c we brought pretty big crowds.

ECU's most played opponents

Southern Miss - 39
App State - 32
NCSU - 31
Cincy - 25
Memphis - 24
WVU - 22
VTech - 21
SC - 20
UCF - 20
Temple - 19
UNC - 18

Pet peeve... if you're ever tempted to talk smack about ECU's bowl appearances and conference championships this is something you've got to fully understand. We didn't take the easier path. Sometimes I wish we had.

Meh...the only smack you should get in here is "64-61!" 0 : ) Go Herd, but we'd still be glad to have you guys back, if only because you guys are the biggest part of our history

Ok..ok...the Mt Dew Rise is startin' to kick in and the neurons are startin' to fire...I like the thought of Oregon/Wash going B12, thus torpeding Memphis big dream, we get the Pirates and Memphis which fit in perfectly geographically....Those were some great games before they pulled a WVU and jumped ship at the sight of $$'s

(07-07-2022 10:03 AM)Herdfan1 Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 09:44 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 09:19 AM)APPdiesel Wrote:  A BigPac merger is bad for any future hopes of adding Memphis to the Sun Belt. If they (BP) do that they’ll be full-up and will have no need to back fill, leaving Memphis and SMU in the AAC. If the Pac shows some stones and doesn’t lose anyone to the XII, then Memphis and SMU could be on the XII’s radar.

If the ACC loses a few then both Memphis and ECU *could* be in play but who knows if ACC presidents and chancellors even think those two girls are pretty enough to buy them a drink. The ACC could choose to double down on basketball and markets and think more about UConn and Temple. They’d be digging their own grave as a football conference but in these situations executives often make bad decisions. Or they could go nuts and invite Navy to gain control over the Army-Navy game media rights.

I also think the only way you get ECU is if you can also get Memphis too. I’m not sure how closely those two schools are tied to one another (any ECU fans reading can answer), but getting them both as a packaged deal would go a long way to assuaging both fan bases’ fears that they aren’t “stepping down”.

Prior to the BCS and CUSA we played independent schedules that consisted of a lot of USM, Memphis, Cincy, Syracuse, WVU, Temple, etc... the other Eastern independents. The old Liberty Bowl alliance demanded ECU's inclusion b/c we brought pretty big crowds.

ECU's most played opponents

Southern Miss - 39
App State - 32
NCSU - 31
Cincy - 25
Memphis - 24
WVU - 22
VTech - 21
SC - 20
UCF - 20
Temple - 19
UNC - 18

Pet peeve... if you're ever tempted to talk smack about ECU's bowl appearances and conference championships this is something you've got to fully understand. We didn't take the easier path. Sometimes I wish we had.

Meh...the only smack you should get in here is "64-61!" 0 : ) Go Herd, but we'd still be glad to have you guys back, if only because you guys are the biggest part of our history

brutal

OK...what does the SB super conference look like?

Current 14 + Memphis, ECU, Tulane, USF, Navy(football only) and UAB + mass depression in Ruston.

(07-07-2022 10:09 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 10:03 AM)Herdfan1 Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 09:44 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 09:19 AM)APPdiesel Wrote:  A BigPac merger is bad for any future hopes of adding Memphis to the Sun Belt. If they (BP) do that they’ll be full-up and will have no need to back fill, leaving Memphis and SMU in the AAC. If the Pac shows some stones and doesn’t lose anyone to the XII, then Memphis and SMU could be on the XII’s radar.

If the ACC loses a few then both Memphis and ECU *could* be in play but who knows if ACC presidents and chancellors even think those two girls are pretty enough to buy them a drink. The ACC could choose to double down on basketball and markets and think more about UConn and Temple. They’d be digging their own grave as a football conference but in these situations executives often make bad decisions. Or they could go nuts and invite Navy to gain control over the Army-Navy game media rights.

I also think the only way you get ECU is if you can also get Memphis too. I’m not sure how closely those two schools are tied to one another (any ECU fans reading can answer), but getting them both as a packaged deal would go a long way to assuaging both fan bases’ fears that they aren’t “stepping down”.

Prior to the BCS and CUSA we played independent schedules that consisted of a lot of USM, Memphis, Cincy, Syracuse, WVU, Temple, etc... the other Eastern independents. The old Liberty Bowl alliance demanded ECU's inclusion b/c we brought pretty big crowds.

ECU's most played opponents

Southern Miss - 39
App State - 32
NCSU - 31
Cincy - 25
Memphis - 24
WVU - 22
VTech - 21
SC - 20
UCF - 20
Temple - 19
UNC - 18

Pet peeve... if you're ever tempted to talk smack about ECU's bowl appearances and conference championships this is something you've got to fully understand. We didn't take the easier path. Sometimes I wish we had.

Meh...the only smack you should get in here is "64-61!" 0 : ) Go Herd, but we'd still be glad to have you guys back, if only because you guys are the biggest part of our history

brutal

Well, then there's...... 59-28

Just messin' with ya. I'd LOVE to have ECU in the SBC!!!!!!