(05-31-2022 08:59 PM)Todor Wrote:  Vickie Lawrence is hilarious. And while it cooked extremely well, the Big Boss Grill was overpriced.

Wondered when someone would get the reference. Long live Mama

(05-31-2022 09:03 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 08:59 PM)Todor Wrote:  Vickie Lawrence is hilarious. And while it cooked extremely well, the Big Boss Grill was overpriced.

Wondered when someone would get the reference. Long live Mama

I own the complete series. My buddy lives in Missouri and Bubba is his mail man! True story.

(05-31-2022 03:36 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  How did Biden* do with his endorsements?

Putin and Xi both won.

(05-31-2022 01:25 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 12:45 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 12:39 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 12:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hasnt Trump gone something like 53-2 with respect to people he has supported? Given the overall record----its about par for course that the resident lefties would go off on some fake news narrative about Trumps support being a negative.

Let's get real here about Trump's so- called great record. While he's probably helped pull some primary candidates across the finish lines, he's also backed a number of heavy favorites too. So his stats are surely padded. I'm not saying he has zero influence on the GOP; however, I am saying that Trump is not above picking damn near guaranteed wins so that he looks good in people's eyes.

To be fair---he's backed the people who support his views. Some were favorites when he selected them, some were not. In some places where he lost---all the primary candidates claimed they were Trump supporters. So---Trumps views actually won despite his chosen candidate losing. Here is the thing---its not so much that Trump is telling the Republican Party which direction to go---its more that Trump is one of the first GOP leaders since Reagan who understands what most of the Republican Party membership already believes.

Yes, Trump's views won overall and to your point even those who didn't get his endorsement tried to link themselves to Trump. The concern I have is a guy like Trump may make life difficult down the road for the message he started us with if his ego doesn't get stroked enough.

Stroke his ego or watch inflation bankrupt us all while Biden tells us how great his economy is doing.

Yeah. I’ll have no problem voting for Trump if that’s my options.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

(05-31-2022 01:42 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 12:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hasnt Trump gone something like 53-2 with respect to people he has supported? Given the overall record----its about par for course that the resident lefties would go off on some fake news narrative about Trumps support being a negative.

To be clear, I am certainly not suggesting Trump's endorsement is a negative. Maybe in a blue state in the general election, but not in a Republican primary anywhere. I think for a GOP primary his endorsement is worth more than any other endorsement in US politics currently, and maybe ever.

But looking at these embarrassing defeats, and his impressive wins & losses, do start to show its limits. His gaudy overall record doesn't tell us a lot, as most of those endorsements are "safe" incumbent races with nominal opposition, or even unopposed. So far it appears to me that his endorsement is most valuable in a close, multi-candidate race where it may propel his candidate to outright victory, or a very close loss. His impressive wins -

Ohio Senate - the most impressive performance thus far, JD Vance was polling 3rd or 4th before Trump stepped in

Pennsylvania Senate - Dr. Oz remains ahead for now, even if he loses it will be very close. Given the margins it is highly improbable he did this well if not for the Trump factor

Trump has also had a couple of what I would call "impressive losses", where his problematic candidates did not win but likely came far closer than they could have without his support -

Nebraska Governor - this was a race like OH & PA, close with multiple candidates, where Trump's endorsement would likely have propelled Herbster to victory if not for the multiple accusations of sexual harassment. He still came in 2nd and only lost by 4 points. Trump did a rally here so he was quite invested, but to me coming in a respectable second with such a flawed candidate is a testimony to the power of his endorsement rather than an emabarrassment.

NC House 11th District - Trump "endorsed" scandal-plagued Madison Cawthorn, but not as vigorously as others and he did not hold a rally here. He did put out a call for Cawthorn to be given a 2nd chance, but not until the day before the election. Cawthorn ended up losing by less than 2 points so Trump probably could have carried him over the finish line if he had gotten more personally involved. Without the Trump seal of approval I doubt Cawthorn would have kept it so close.

And finally we have the embarrassing losses, all cases where a Trump endorsed candidate failed to dislodge an incumbent. In the two GA races the only rationale Trump offered against the incumbents was the failure to back his Big Lie, perhaps also showing that most GOP voters are ready to move on and focus on current events -

Idaho Governor - I still don't know why Trump got involved in this one, but he did. Crazy Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin lost by 20 points to incumbent Governor Brad Little after mismanaging the budget of her office and abolishing all Covid public health measures every time the Governor left the state, only to have him return and overrule her. Trump wisely did not hold a rally here, which wasn't going to make up that kind of gap and would only have further tied him to the loser.

Georgia Governor - Trump was all-in on unseating Governor Kemp and got flat out embarrassed, with his candidate losing by over 50 points. The last polling indicated Kemp would likely beat Perdue without a runoff, but his final margin was considerably higher than expected.

Georgia Secretary of State - Again, Trump was all about defeating the SOS who declined to "find" those 11,780 votes and endorsed sitting Congressman Jody Hice to do so. Once given up for dead, the last polling indicated that SOS Raffensperger would likely make it to a runoff with Hice but ultimately he narrowly won re-nomination outright.

Maybe others were following other races too that I didn't highlight that would tell us more about the power of Trump's endorsement? It will be interesting to see if these patterns hold through the rest of the primary season, there are at least a couple very interesting ones left to come, and I expect mixed results for Trump -

Wyoming House - Trump is all-in for Harriet Hageman, who is likely to defeat Liz Cheney. Likely not enough Democrats in Wyoming to make a difference even if they all changed parties to vote for Cheney, and many of them likely are unwilling to do so since Cheney is a conservative Republican in every way aside from telling the truth about the 2020 election & January 6th. Primary on 8/16.

Alaska Senate - Trump has endorsed Kelly Tshibaka against incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski, and I think he loses this one. Not only is Murkowski the only person not named Strom Thurmond ever elected to the Senate by write-in votes, but AK now has open primaries and ranked-choice voting and every Democrat in the Last Frontier will likely rank the moderate Murkowski ahead of Trump's candidate. He'll likely hold a rally in Alaska this summer and do everything he can for Tshibaka, so if she does lose this one will go squarely on the embarrassing loss list. Open primary on 8/16 (top four advance to November general election).

Bullshite, that's exactly what you did, and then you were called out on it.

(05-31-2022 09:30 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 01:42 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 12:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hasnt Trump gone something like 53-2 with respect to people he has supported? Given the overall record----its about par for course that the resident lefties would go off on some fake news narrative about Trumps support being a negative.

To be clear, I am certainly not suggesting Trump's endorsement is a negative. Maybe in a blue state in the general election, but not in a Republican primary anywhere. I think for a GOP primary his endorsement is worth more than any other endorsement in US politics currently, and maybe ever.

But looking at these embarrassing defeats, and his impressive wins & losses, do start to show its limits. His gaudy overall record doesn't tell us a lot, as most of those endorsements are "safe" incumbent races with nominal opposition, or even unopposed. So far it appears to me that his endorsement is most valuable in a close, multi-candidate race where it may propel his candidate to outright victory, or a very close loss. His impressive wins -

Ohio Senate - the most impressive performance thus far, JD Vance was polling 3rd or 4th before Trump stepped in

Pennsylvania Senate - Dr. Oz remains ahead for now, even if he loses it will be very close. Given the margins it is highly improbable he did this well if not for the Trump factor

Trump has also had a couple of what I would call "impressive losses", where his problematic candidates did not win but likely came far closer than they could have without his support -

Nebraska Governor - this was a race like OH & PA, close with multiple candidates, where Trump's endorsement would likely have propelled Herbster to victory if not for the multiple accusations of sexual harassment. He still came in 2nd and only lost by 4 points. Trump did a rally here so he was quite invested, but to me coming in a respectable second with such a flawed candidate is a testimony to the power of his endorsement rather than an emabarrassment.

NC House 11th District - Trump "endorsed" scandal-plagued Madison Cawthorn, but not as vigorously as others and he did not hold a rally here. He did put out a call for Cawthorn to be given a 2nd chance, but not until the day before the election. Cawthorn ended up losing by less than 2 points so Trump probably could have carried him over the finish line if he had gotten more personally involved. Without the Trump seal of approval I doubt Cawthorn would have kept it so close.

And finally we have the embarrassing losses, all cases where a Trump endorsed candidate failed to dislodge an incumbent. In the two GA races the only rationale Trump offered against the incumbents was the failure to back his Big Lie, perhaps also showing that most GOP voters are ready to move on and focus on current events -

Idaho Governor - I still don't know why Trump got involved in this one, but he did. Crazy Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin lost by 20 points to incumbent Governor Brad Little after mismanaging the budget of her office and abolishing all Covid public health measures every time the Governor left the state, only to have him return and overrule her. Trump wisely did not hold a rally here, which wasn't going to make up that kind of gap and would only have further tied him to the loser.

Georgia Governor - Trump was all-in on unseating Governor Kemp and got flat out embarrassed, with his candidate losing by over 50 points. The last polling indicated Kemp would likely beat Perdue without a runoff, but his final margin was considerably higher than expected.

Georgia Secretary of State - Again, Trump was all about defeating the SOS who declined to "find" those 11,780 votes and endorsed sitting Congressman Jody Hice to do so. Once given up for dead, the last polling indicated that SOS Raffensperger would likely make it to a runoff with Hice but ultimately he narrowly won re-nomination outright.

Maybe others were following other races too that I didn't highlight that would tell us more about the power of Trump's endorsement? It will be interesting to see if these patterns hold through the rest of the primary season, there are at least a couple very interesting ones left to come, and I expect mixed results for Trump -

Wyoming House - Trump is all-in for Harriet Hageman, who is likely to defeat Liz Cheney. Likely not enough Democrats in Wyoming to make a difference even if they all changed parties to vote for Cheney, and many of them likely are unwilling to do so since Cheney is a conservative Republican in every way aside from telling the truth about the 2020 election & January 6th. Primary on 8/16.

Alaska Senate - Trump has endorsed Kelly Tshibaka against incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski, and I think he loses this one. Not only is Murkowski the only person not named Strom Thurmond ever elected to the Senate by write-in votes, but AK now has open primaries and ranked-choice voting and every Democrat in the Last Frontier will likely rank the moderate Murkowski ahead of Trump's candidate. He'll likely hold a rally in Alaska this summer and do everything he can for Tshibaka, so if she does lose this one will go squarely on the embarrassing loss list. Open primary on 8/16 (top four advance to November general election).

Bullshite, that's exactly what you did, and then you were called out on it.

You need to read my original post in this thread, which is about Trump suggesting his endorsees lost because the primary was rigged and the road to defeat that, in my opinion, the GOP is headed down if they allow Trump and his Big Lie to be a central issue in 2024. THAT is totally separate from the value of his endorsement in a GOP primary, which I've repeatedly said in multiple threads is extremely valuable. No US politician alive today can motivate their base like Trump can, and he can often provide the margin of victory in a primary. Fortunately for the country, his high floor also comes with a low ceiling and I don't think there are enough voters in his base to win a national election again.

(05-31-2022 09:14 PM)B_Hawk06 Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 01:25 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 12:45 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 12:39 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 12:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hasnt Trump gone something like 53-2 with respect to people he has supported? Given the overall record----its about par for course that the resident lefties would go off on some fake news narrative about Trumps support being a negative.

Let's get real here about Trump's so- called great record. While he's probably helped pull some primary candidates across the finish lines, he's also backed a number of heavy favorites too. So his stats are surely padded. I'm not saying he has zero influence on the GOP; however, I am saying that Trump is not above picking damn near guaranteed wins so that he looks good in people's eyes.

To be fair---he's backed the people who support his views. Some were favorites when he selected them, some were not. In some places where he lost---all the primary candidates claimed they were Trump supporters. So---Trumps views actually won despite his chosen candidate losing. Here is the thing---its not so much that Trump is telling the Republican Party which direction to go---its more that Trump is one of the first GOP leaders since Reagan who understands what most of the Republican Party membership already believes.

Yes, Trump's views won overall and to your point even those who didn't get his endorsement tried to link themselves to Trump. The concern I have is a guy like Trump may make life difficult down the road for the message he started us with if his ego doesn't get stroked enough.

Stroke his ego or watch inflation bankrupt us all while Biden tells us how great his economy is doing.

Yeah. I’ll have no problem voting for Trump if that’s my options.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I'll vote for Trump too if he's the nominee. My point is HE will derail it if he gets upset about not getting enough praise. We've seen him do that before and screw himself (and us) over because he got pissed off.

I wouldn’t look too much into this. I have Republican family in Atlanta who voted Trump twice & Kemp just now. People know he can beat Stacy.

A poll came out yesterday that had Biden at a 31% approval rating in GA.

Ouch.

You know it is bad when liberals are celebrating when Republicans win.

(05-31-2022 12:29 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  If my team went 55-8 for the course of the season chances are they'll be playing for the championship.

Only of they are in a P5 conference.

(05-31-2022 09:41 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 09:30 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 01:42 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(05-31-2022 12:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hasnt Trump gone something like 53-2 with respect to people he has supported? Given the overall record----its about par for course that the resident lefties would go off on some fake news narrative about Trumps support being a negative.

To be clear, I am certainly not suggesting Trump's endorsement is a negative. Maybe in a blue state in the general election, but not in a Republican primary anywhere. I think for a GOP primary his endorsement is worth more than any other endorsement in US politics currently, and maybe ever.

But looking at these embarrassing defeats, and his impressive wins & losses, do start to show its limits. His gaudy overall record doesn't tell us a lot, as most of those endorsements are "safe" incumbent races with nominal opposition, or even unopposed. So far it appears to me that his endorsement is most valuable in a close, multi-candidate race where it may propel his candidate to outright victory, or a very close loss. His impressive wins -

Ohio Senate - the most impressive performance thus far, JD Vance was polling 3rd or 4th before Trump stepped in

Pennsylvania Senate - Dr. Oz remains ahead for now, even if he loses it will be very close. Given the margins it is highly improbable he did this well if not for the Trump factor

Trump has also had a couple of what I would call "impressive losses", where his problematic candidates did not win but likely came far closer than they could have without his support -

Nebraska Governor - this was a race like OH & PA, close with multiple candidates, where Trump's endorsement would likely have propelled Herbster to victory if not for the multiple accusations of sexual harassment. He still came in 2nd and only lost by 4 points. Trump did a rally here so he was quite invested, but to me coming in a respectable second with such a flawed candidate is a testimony to the power of his endorsement rather than an emabarrassment.

NC House 11th District - Trump "endorsed" scandal-plagued Madison Cawthorn, but not as vigorously as others and he did not hold a rally here. He did put out a call for Cawthorn to be given a 2nd chance, but not until the day before the election. Cawthorn ended up losing by less than 2 points so Trump probably could have carried him over the finish line if he had gotten more personally involved. Without the Trump seal of approval I doubt Cawthorn would have kept it so close.

And finally we have the embarrassing losses, all cases where a Trump endorsed candidate failed to dislodge an incumbent. In the two GA races the only rationale Trump offered against the incumbents was the failure to back his Big Lie, perhaps also showing that most GOP voters are ready to move on and focus on current events -

Idaho Governor - I still don't know why Trump got involved in this one, but he did. Crazy Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin lost by 20 points to incumbent Governor Brad Little after mismanaging the budget of her office and abolishing all Covid public health measures every time the Governor left the state, only to have him return and overrule her. Trump wisely did not hold a rally here, which wasn't going to make up that kind of gap and would only have further tied him to the loser.

Georgia Governor - Trump was all-in on unseating Governor Kemp and got flat out embarrassed, with his candidate losing by over 50 points. The last polling indicated Kemp would likely beat Perdue without a runoff, but his final margin was considerably higher than expected.

Georgia Secretary of State - Again, Trump was all about defeating the SOS who declined to "find" those 11,780 votes and endorsed sitting Congressman Jody Hice to do so. Once given up for dead, the last polling indicated that SOS Raffensperger would likely make it to a runoff with Hice but ultimately he narrowly won re-nomination outright.

Maybe others were following other races too that I didn't highlight that would tell us more about the power of Trump's endorsement? It will be interesting to see if these patterns hold through the rest of the primary season, there are at least a couple very interesting ones left to come, and I expect mixed results for Trump -

Wyoming House - Trump is all-in for Harriet Hageman, who is likely to defeat Liz Cheney. Likely not enough Democrats in Wyoming to make a difference even if they all changed parties to vote for Cheney, and many of them likely are unwilling to do so since Cheney is a conservative Republican in every way aside from telling the truth about the 2020 election & January 6th. Primary on 8/16.

Alaska Senate - Trump has endorsed Kelly Tshibaka against incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski, and I think he loses this one. Not only is Murkowski the only person not named Strom Thurmond ever elected to the Senate by write-in votes, but AK now has open primaries and ranked-choice voting and every Democrat in the Last Frontier will likely rank the moderate Murkowski ahead of Trump's candidate. He'll likely hold a rally in Alaska this summer and do everything he can for Tshibaka, so if she does lose this one will go squarely on the embarrassing loss list. Open primary on 8/16 (top four advance to November general election).

Bullshite, that's exactly what you did, and then you were called out on it.

You need to read my original post in this thread, which is about Trump suggesting his endorsees lost because the primary was rigged and the road to defeat that, in my opinion, the GOP is headed down if they allow Trump and his Big Lie to be a central issue in 2024. THAT is totally separate from the value of his endorsement in a GOP primary, which I've repeatedly said in multiple threads is extremely valuable. No US politician alive today can motivate their base like Trump can, and he can often provide the margin of victory in a primary. Fortunately for the country, his high floor also comes with a low ceiling and I don't think there are enough voters in his base to win a national election again.

They specifically called out GA as one of the states.

Once again, the Peach State has dealt a major blow to Trump's aura of "winning". Jennings may be right about this, Georgia has now delivered high profile rejections of the former President in 5 straight elections - the 2020 general, 2021 runoffs, 2022 primary, 2022 general, and 2022 runoff. Perhaps we should sing about the devil going down IN Georgia instead of TO Georgia -

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
December 7, 2022 at 9:56 am EST By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

“Georgia may be remembered as the state that broke Trump once and for all.”

— Republican strategist Scott Jennings, on Twitter.

https://politicalwire.com/2022/12/07/ext...e-day-743/

From talking to my Atlanta buddy. It seems most Georgia republicans think Walker was just a terrible candidate

Races are not this close over and over and over.

(12-07-2022 11:31 AM)Jugnaut Wrote:  From talking to my Atlanta buddy. It seems most Georgia republicans think Walker was just a terrible candidate

I would say that could be part of it if Warnock were not every bit as bad if not worse. I think it simply came down to money. Republicans were massively outspent. I know it was more than 2 to 1 (Ive heard as high as 8 to 1). Hard to overcome that kind of campaign disadvantage.

(12-07-2022 11:54 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think it simply came down to money. Republicans were massively outspent. I know it was more than 2 to 1 (Ive heard as high as 8 to 1). Hard to overcome that kind of campaign disadvantage.

Campaign money is so difficult to trace.

I did see some anti-Warnock ads on TV here in Atlanta. So the GOP wasn’t completely shut-out, financially. But the anti-Walker ads were much, MUCH more frequent. Just intuitively, I’d say the Dems had about a 3:1 advantage in that department for the Warnock/Walker campaign.

But again, it’s extremely hard to keep track of election fundraising and spending. I’m not necessarily saying that’s a problem — just that it’s a fact.

(12-07-2022 11:54 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-07-2022 11:31 AM)Jugnaut Wrote:  From talking to my Atlanta buddy. It seems most Georgia republicans think Walker was just a terrible candidate

I would say that could be part of it if Warnock were not every bit as bad if not worse. I think it simply came down to money. Republicans were massively outspent. I know it was more than 2 to 1 (Ive heard as high as 8 to 1). Hard to overcome that kind of campaign disadvantage.

I think the TV commercials were about 20 to 1. And it was 100% Warnock over the summer. McConnell wouldn't spend money and Warnock ran a bunch of attack ads on Walker, who had lots of vulnerabilities. I know my kids each got 4 or 5 mailings telling them to vote. They were targeting younger voters. General mail to our house was 1.5 to 2 to 1 more for Warnock. And we had a couple of Democrats knock on our door. One was a real jack___ mouthing off after I told him I wasn't interested (not in Warnock, just not interested in talking about the election). I live in an 80% or more blue neighborhood, so these people don't understand not everything thinks exactly like them.

When you have a candidate with skeletons in his closet and you get massively outspent, its almost impossible to win. Herschel's name recognition is the only thing that kept it close.

(12-07-2022 11:54 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-07-2022 11:31 AM)Jugnaut Wrote:  From talking to my Atlanta buddy. It seems most Georgia republicans think Walker was just a terrible candidate

I would say that could be part of it if Warnock were not every bit as bad if not worse. I think it simply came down to money. Republicans were massively outspent. I know it was more than 2 to 1 (Ive heard as high as 8 to 1). Hard to overcome that kind of campaign disadvantage.

Warnock was competent. Walker was not.

Most of my buddies in Atlanta are Eisenhower-esque Republicans… fiscally conservative & socially moderate & none will support Trump or Trump backed candidates. They all voted for Kemp, but they also voted for Warnock, Ossoff & Biden, and it is this block of voters that are gradually moving blue. The GOP’s war on education, the “media”, elections, the deep state, et al, has endeared it to disenfranchised working class white folks, but it has cost them with college educated professionals.

(12-07-2022 12:04 PM)bullet Wrote:  I think the TV commercials were about 20 to 1. And it was 100% Warnock over the summer. McConnell wouldn't spend money and Warnock ran a bunch of attack ads on Walker, who had lots of vulnerabilities. I know my kids each got 4 or 5 mailings telling them to vote. They were targeting younger voters. General mail to our house was 1.5 to 2 to 1 more for Warnock. And we had a couple of Democrats knock on our door. One was a real jack___ mouthing off after I told him I wasn't interested (not in Warnock, just not interested in talking about the election). I live in an 80% or more blue neighborhood, so these people don't understand not everything thinks exactly like them.

When you have a candidate with skeletons in his closet and you get massively outspent, its almost impossible to win. Herschel's name recognition is the only thing that kept it close.

I'd also point out that the money usually points to the group which has a much larger hatred towards a candidate than the other. In this case, the person who pushed Walker to run... his baggage will kill the 2024 election if he is the nominee. Still may do it if he runs independent. The rest of the Republican party is realizing this now.

(12-07-2022 12:05 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(12-07-2022 11:54 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-07-2022 11:31 AM)Jugnaut Wrote:  From talking to my Atlanta buddy. It seems most Georgia republicans think Walker was just a terrible candidate

I would say that could be part of it if Warnock were not every bit as bad if not worse. I think it simply came down to money. Republicans were massively outspent. I know it was more than 2 to 1 (Ive heard as high as 8 to 1). Hard to overcome that kind of campaign disadvantage.

Warnock was competent. Walker was not.

Most of my buddies in Atlanta are Eisenhower-esque Republicans… fiscally conservative & socially moderate & none will support Trump or Trump backed candidates. They all voted for Kemp, but they also voted for Warnock, Ossoff & Biden, and it is this block of voters that are gradually moving blue. The GOP’s war on education, the “media”, elections, the deep state, et al, has endeared it to disenfranchised working class white folks, but it has cost them with college educated professionals.

You have it backwards. Its the media and deep state war on Republicans and the education establishment's war on America.

The strict law and order types (Capitol riot) and people tired of drama are turned off.