(04-14-2022 06:23 AM)ibby10 Wrote: It may not happen with ESPN’s intervention, but it could happen. Departure of Texas/OK and how they settle Big12 GOR will set a precedence (set to expire in 2025?). We may not need to wait till 2036 for ACC GOR to expire to see more movement. SEC and B10 are waiting like vultures, especially B10 is getting restless seeing SEC strengthening. Let’s say in 5 or 10 years SEC grabs Clemson and FSU. B10 responds by taking UVA, VT, GT and UNC. What does ACC do? Which schools and how many does ACC add?
Assuming ACC is down to 9:
BC
Cuse
Pitt
ND
Louisville
WF
Duke
NC State
Miami
BE: UConn is obviously the easy addition. But would ACC consider any of the other bball only members? Georgetown perhaps to reignite old rivalries with Cuse etc. Would GTown or other bball schools reciprocate the interest?
BIG12: Would eastern teams like WVU, Cincy and UCF be interested in a depleted ACC? Is current BIG12 better than the depleted ACC?
AAC: Temple, USF, Memphis?
Would Miami be ok with UCF and/or USF? BC with UConn?
While I don't agree with the schools you posit would be poached, I do think the remnants of such an ACC would be dangerously close to losing its presumption as a power conference, at least in football. And, at that point, there would be little they could add that would improve that position with schools they could attract.
Instead, and because I believe it would be necessary for ESPN to play the role of broker even before it gets to that point, I think it would be more likely there would be a merger of the ACC and Big 12 under the ESPN umbrella (with the ACCN including what I think would be 18 schools).
This is one possible outcome (listed in order of their 10 year mean Sagarin rating (MSR):
Mid East Conference (MEC)
West: Clemson, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Baylor, Kansas State, Miami, Georgia Tech, BYU and Texas Tech
East: TCU, West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Iowa State, UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and Syracuse
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Note that in this scenario, the B1G has poached UNC, Duke, Virginia and Kansas and ESPN encourages the SEC to take NC State and Virginia Tech.
Notre Dame, Boston College and Wake Forest go to the Big East and play FBS football as independents, with Wake and BC guaranteed preferred scheduling partners from their former conference mates for FB and substantial financial compensation spread out over many years.
In turn, this facilitates a breakaway from the NCAA by the (now) four power football conferences and the Big East, who can sponsor their own 8 team CFP and 64 team basketball tournament. Both of those post season events could include schools left behind in the NCAA to bolster the winner's claim to a legitimately national championship.