(04-01-2022 12:02 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 10:34 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  I just looked up Rice v AAC W, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, Navy, NoTexas, and UTSA are all in the Top 20 of games played with Rice. I had not realized that NoTexas and UTSA had gotten that high.

I think y'all are tied for UTSA's second most played opponent.

We're first (for 2 more years I guess, until you and UNT pass us).

Small sample sizes are fun.

Rice has played 102 opponents in 108 years. Not really a small sample size.

(04-01-2022 10:03 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 09:24 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Mike,
No. You made a huge mistake by adding the CUSA6 and diluting the conference.

Who all would you have added? I'm assuming UAB, but who else?

UAB and 1 other: Marshall. I was big on App St as a potential second add too but everyone on here said it wasn’t possible because of market size and potential. I could’ve gone with either of those two no problem. Never Charlotte or the Florida pick.

(04-01-2022 11:35 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 11:22 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  Navy is not a private school.

No, of course not. The Military academies, though, and this includes schools like The Citadel and VMI, have a history of aligning with, voting with, identifying with the goals of, private schools in and out of their conference. Navy and Army are in otherwise all-private Patriot League. Air Force is in a public league, but that is mainly because it needs geographic relative proximity.

Also, much like a somewhat small (compared to large publics), elite private schools, the Military academies are VERY selective.

VMI and The Citadel align well with SoCon private schools Furman, Wofford, Mercer, and Samford much more than the four other public schools.

Very well explained.

In some respects, the Naval Academy is "de facto private."

(04-01-2022 12:36 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 12:02 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 10:34 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  I just looked up Rice v AAC W, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, Navy, NoTexas, and UTSA are all in the Top 20 of games played with Rice. I had not realized that NoTexas and UTSA had gotten that high.

I think y'all are tied for UTSA's second most played opponent.

We're first (for 2 more years I guess, until you and UNT pass us).

Small sample sizes are fun.

Rice has played 102 opponents in 108 years. Not really a small sample size.

I meant UTSA, not Rice.

Tech is first, but won't stay there because their most-played opponent is just 10 times (7-3 Tech by the way). And we're only ahead of y'all on that list (for now) because of the COVID cancellation I think.

Tech and Rice within each other's top 20, but at that point we're not talking that many games (maybe low teens?).

(04-01-2022 12:40 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 10:03 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 09:24 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Mike,
No. You made a huge mistake by adding the CUSA6 and diluting the conference.

Who all would you have added? I'm assuming UAB, but who else?

UAB and 1 other: Marshall. I was big on App St as a potential second add too but everyone on here said it wasn’t possible because of market size and potential. I could’ve gone with either of those two no problem. Never Charlotte or the Florida pick.

Me too with Marshall. I figured it would be Rice, UAB, Marshall and either UMass, ODU, or maybe UNCC. I could never nail down the last one but I think ODU was the school I favored most of the time.

(04-01-2022 09:58 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 09:19 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 04:54 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  AAC dominance is over, and this is going to open wide up.

_____________

As for Louisiana, Coastal, and App, all three finished bowl season with one loss on the season. Louisiana and Coastal finished their respective regular seasons and bowl seasons well ahead of all AAC teams who aren't Big 12-bound. App finished the regular season behind Cotton Bowl-bound Memphis, but Memphis would not have had those two strong wins vs. Cincinnati, so it's debatable who would have come out on top.

I'm just saying no league is going to dominate. The Sun Belt is going to get some teams into the NY6. The AAC will continue to get their share, but not always. The MW will get some in there, too. And then there will be some unpredictable MAC or C-USA team that makes a 13-0 run at some point, though SOS will be weak compared to the other three G5's.

At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

Whomever can stand out among their G5 conference mates enough will get the P6 bid.

Boise hasn't been the same Boise in the MWC than it was in the WAC where it was less competitive.

Coastal is getting a big increase in competition within the SBC. Louisiana some more with USM but not as much of a changed paradigm as SBC East

Liberty might have a shot to stand out in CUSA, bolstered by a solid middle class in WKU, MT, LT.

SMU has bank ($$$) for athletics its conference mates generally do not.

MAC has been around 75 years, longer than the MWC/CUSA/AAC/SBC have combined.

(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 09:58 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 09:19 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 04:54 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  AAC dominance is over, and this is going to open wide up.

_____________

As for Louisiana, Coastal, and App, all three finished bowl season with one loss on the season. Louisiana and Coastal finished their respective regular seasons and bowl seasons well ahead of all AAC teams who aren't Big 12-bound. App finished the regular season behind Cotton Bowl-bound Memphis, but Memphis would not have had those two strong wins vs. Cincinnati, so it's debatable who would have come out on top.

I'm just saying no league is going to dominate. The Sun Belt is going to get some teams into the NY6. The AAC will continue to get their share, but not always. The MW will get some in there, too. And then there will be some unpredictable MAC or C-USA team that makes a 13-0 run at some point, though SOS will be weak compared to the other three G5's.

At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

I fully agree but I would say it depends on how this realignment shakes out for everyone. For the short term the AAC has the advantage based on past success. The only hope for the other conferences is to to try to benefit from the recent changes to try and earn more leverage for their next tv deal and hope to close the gap. They also need teams to underperform a bit for the AAC.

(04-01-2022 11:55 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  MAC has been around 75 years, longer than the MWC/CUSA/AAC/SBC have combined.

Anyway you slice it, that's not true. Counting the present season:

SBC: 1976-present = 46 seasons (sponsoring FB since 2001 = 21 seasons)
AAC: 1979-present = 43 seasons (originally the Big East; sponsoring FB since 1991 = 31 seasons; renamed AAC in 2013 = 9 seasons)
CUSA: 1995-present = 27 seasons (sponsoring FB since 1996 = 26 seasons)
MWC: 1999-present = 23 seasons

Counting the Big East (1979-2013):
All seasons of the 4 conferences combined = 139 seasons
All FB-sponsoring seasons of the 4 conferences combined = 101 seasons

Not counting the Big East (1979-2013):
All seasons of the 4 conferences combined = 105 seasons
All FB-sponsoring seasons of the 4 conferences combined = 79 seasons

MAC: 1946-present = 76 seasons (sponsoring FB since 1947 = 75 seasons)

(04-01-2022 12:47 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 12:40 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 10:03 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 09:24 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Mike,
No. You made a huge mistake by adding the CUSA6 and diluting the conference.

Who all would you have added? I'm assuming UAB, but who else?

UAB and 1 other: Marshall. I was big on App St as a potential second add too but everyone on here said it wasn’t possible because of market size and potential. I could’ve gone with either of those two no problem. Never Charlotte or the Florida pick.

Me too with Marshall. I figured it would be Rice, UAB, Marshall and either UMass, ODU, or maybe UNCC. I could never nail down the last one but I think ODU was the school I favored most of the time.

AAC should have gone with UAB and Rice, then add in VCU and offer a spots to Army/Air Force football. That's 10 football and 11 basketball without the Army/Air Force. Basketball is Temple, Memphis, WSU, VCU, SMU, Tulsa and UAB with Rice investing in all sports that's a solid football (Navy, Temple, Memphis, SMU) high academic schools major markets and very little dilution in competitive capabilities, history with each other and in sports, etc.

(04-02-2022 01:25 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 12:47 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 12:40 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 10:03 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 09:24 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Mike,
No. You made a huge mistake by adding the CUSA6 and diluting the conference.

Who all would you have added? I'm assuming UAB, but who else?

UAB and 1 other: Marshall. I was big on App St as a potential second add too but everyone on here said it wasn’t possible because of market size and potential. I could’ve gone with either of those two no problem. Never Charlotte or the Florida pick.

Me too with Marshall. I figured it would be Rice, UAB, Marshall and either UMass, ODU, or maybe UNCC. I could never nail down the last one but I think ODU was the school I favored most of the time.

AAC should have gone with UAB and Rice, then add in VCU and offer a spots to Army/Air Force football. That's 10 football and 11 basketball without the Army/Air Force. Basketball is Temple, Memphis, WSU, VCU, SMU, Tulsa and UAB with Rice investing in all sports that's a solid football (Navy, Temple, Memphis, SMU) high academic schools major markets and very little dilution in competitive capabilities, history with each other and in sports, etc.

Army and Air Force have both rejected the AAC multiple times. Army is secure as an independent and Air Force won't leave the MWC without the Front Range Schools.

(03-31-2022 06:39 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  It can't be understated that the AAC has much better exposure and recruiting geography than any other G5 conference. In essence, it's not really a fair fight. Being able to offer Texas and Florida athletes superior television exposure (and the ability to play often in front of their families) will keep allowing the AAC to edge the MWC/MAC/Belt/CUSA. The AAC also has the superior conference brand name from dominating that NY6 position for so long.

You can spin this any way you want, but the reality is that the SEC came out of this a Big Winner, and the Big 12, AAC and CUSA came out as losers. Any time the best schools are leaving the conference, you are losing the battle. The SBC came out of this as a stronger conference, and the MWC is stronger because they were untouched.

Among the G5 conferences, there is no dominant conference once Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF leave the AAC. Just being in Florida and Texas does not provide a recruiting advantage. First, the four-star and five-star talent will end up playing at power conference schools. Secondly, you still have to battle power conference schools for some of the three-star talent, as well as schools from the SBC, CUSA and other conferences around America. Schools like North Texas, Rice and FAU are not rolling in the talent. North Texas has had two players drafted into the NFL in the past 26 years. Rice has not had a player drafted since 2015 and their last first round pick came in 1980. FAU has never had a player drafted higher than the third round. These CUSA schools are not usually rolling in talent and just moving to the AAC will not fix that issue.

The MWC is recruiting California and the western region, with some recruiting in Texas. They are on Fox and CBS. They are not really going head-to-head against the AAC, and they did not lose their three best teams to the Big 12. They are not competing for recruits with the other four G5 conferences. The MWC would argue that they have a geographical advantage. I would argue that no one has the advantage these days among G5 conferences.

It may take a few years, but the AAC will have more money for football staff and facilities as well has they will be on national TV many times over. This will play into have better recruits and teams.

.

So far, based on their responses to the poll on this board the respondents have expressed the view that the AAC will be somewhat dominant in basketball, but that the MWC is most likely to become the dominant football conference, and that the SBC might be the second strongest FB conference.

The basketball results are surprising, considering that the MWC had twice as many teams in the 2022 NCAA tournament as the AAC had, and considering the fact that the AAC will be losing two of its strongest basketball programs.

(04-01-2022 09:19 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 04:54 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Louisiana would have made the access bowl in 2021 had Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston already been in the Big 12. Same for Coastal in 2020. I'm not sure whether App, Boise, or Memphis would have gotten the edge in 2019 with the SOS Memphis would have lost without Cincy, UCF, and Houston.

AAC dominance is over, and this is going to open wide up.

Hard to say for sure ULL or Coastal would have been the choice. Take Cincy, UCF, and UH off the schedule and replace them with Rice, UAB, and Charlotte, then some of the remaining AAC teams suddenly have three more wins and could be ranked above Coastal or ULL.

Good point

I expect other AAC programs simply step up their performance level… And with new hungry programs joining the AAC I do believe the AAC will continue their old dominating ways.

(04-01-2022 12:02 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Here's another way to look at it...

The AAC's ownership of the non-contract-bowl-conference slot in the CFP NY6 slot has been because of depth. It was Houston and then it was UCF, and when it wasn't UCF it was Memphis, and when it wasn't Memphis, it was Cincinnati, and the teams that were contending in the CCG like Temple and Navy and Tulsa were also in the CFP NY6 conversation.
You'll notice I mentioned just as many "stayers" as "leavers" in that. The CFP committee has respected the AAC for the last 8 years.

Let's look at total appearances in the CFP committee rankings (in some ways that's more significant than AP/Coaches Poll starting after preseason bias has been dispensed with)
The Four Teams joining the Big12 have 54 appearances in the CFP rankings
The future AAC has 47 appearances in the CFP rankings
The current/future mwc has 37 appearances in the CFP rankings
The future Sun Belt has 24 appearances in the CFP rankings
The once and future MAC has 6 appearances in the CFP rankings
Liberty gives future CUSA 2 appearances in the CFP rankings

Okay, slh, that's kind of close between the future AAC, the mwc, and the future Sun Belt...yeah, til you take out Boise's 21. Without Boise, the future AAC has 47 appearances in the CFP rankings and three mwc, four future SBC, 2016 WMU, and Liberty have 48 combined.
HALF of the future AAC have earned the CFP committee's respect to get ranked. Seven future AAC, and ten G4s including Boise.


Here are the program totals for the four joining the Big12, the future AAC (bolded) and all the G4s:
Boise 21
Cincinnati 19
Memphis 16
Navy 12
BYU 12
UCF 12
Houston 11
SDSU 7
Louisiana 7
Temple 6
Fresno 6
App State 6
Coastal Carolina 6
WMU 6
Tulsa 5
Marshall 5
SMU 4
UTSA 3
Liberty 2
ECU 1
SJSU 1

Huh. The only program moving to the Big12 better than Memphis or Navy is Cincinnati. BYU and UCF trail Memphis and are equal to Navy. Boise exceeds Memphis and Navy, but otherwise...nope, none of the G4s and that's before we pull in Temple, SMU, Tulsa etc.

Guaranteed that we'll keep up the dominance? No.
Pretty solid chance? Yes.

(03-31-2022 06:39 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  Consequently, the AAC now has 14 teams engaged in the Arms Race that will buoy the conference DESPITE the loss of Cincinnati, Houston and UCF.

USF is trying to stay out front of the AAC Arms Race...

(04-01-2022 01:54 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:   At the end of the day, the AAC will have more $$ and exposure, both matter. They will be able to dump an extra mil in to coaching staffs over all but MWC and an extra couple mil per year into facilities, while getting better TV slots than all the rest of the G5. It won't happen overnight, but that will push them to the top of the G5 again.
Just like last time when AAC was formed, and just like the difference between p5 and G5, Money matters, exposure matters, the AAC will have more of both. The G4 can have success, but will be shooting up hill.

Read this carefully.



^^^ In 2019-2020 (the year before Covid), the AAC ranked ahead of the ACC.

It's worth noting that when the AAC was formed, all of the teams were making LESS television money than the 6 AAC expansion teams will make year 1. Meanwhile, the incumbant AAC schools are still making the same money from the new billion dollar ESPN deal.

That matters.

I predict the 14-team AAC will rank ahead of the 14-team ACC AGAIN before this decade is over.

Even without the three Big 12 bellcows, the expanded 14-team AAC is picking up 4 more teams in Texas and Florida, who will be getting MORE money/exposure than the original AAC made on their first deal - AND they've all committed to spend more.

What it comes down to is geography. The expanded 14-team ACC shot themselves in the foot by adding the northern OBE basketball-centric schools. Competitively they've never recovered.

Meanwhile, Aresco smartly has never let basketball take the AAC hostage. He doubled down on programs in warm weather football hotbeds, even after getting poached. There is a reason that the AAC has dominated the NY6 spot.



"The AAC ranked ahead of the ACC in 2019-2020, and before the decade is over the new AAC will rank ahead of the ACC again."

Past is not prologue…particular during a disastrous realignment round for the AAC. Yes, it’s still a fine league, but their continued recent dominance was NY6 was dependent on Cincinnati, UCF. With them gone, along with well performing Houston, I suspect we’ll see the NY6 access spread out a bit more. They’ll win their share, but only their share. The dominance is likely a thing of the past.

(04-02-2022 04:31 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(03-31-2022 06:39 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  It can't be understated that the AAC has much better exposure and recruiting geography than any other G5 conference. In essence, it's not really a fair fight. Being able to offer Texas and Florida athletes superior television exposure (and the ability to play often in front of their families) will keep allowing the AAC to edge the MWC/MAC/Belt/CUSA. The AAC also has the superior conference brand name from dominating that NY6 position for so long.

You can spin this any way you want, but the reality is that the SEC came out of this a Big Winner, and the Big 12, AAC and CUSA came out as losers. Any time the best schools are leaving the conference, you are losing the battle. The SBC came out of this as a stronger conference, and the MWC is stronger because they were untouched.

Among the G5 conferences, there is no dominant conference once Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF leave the AAC. Just being in Florida and Texas does not provide a recruiting advantage. First, the four-star and five-star talent will end up playing at power conference schools. Secondly, you still have to battle power conference schools for some of the three-star talent, as well as schools from the SBC, CUSA and other conferences around America. Schools like North Texas, Rice and FAU are not rolling in the talent. North Texas has had two players drafted into the NFL in the past 26 years. Rice has not had a player drafted since 2015 and their last first round pick came in 1980. FAU has never had a player drafted higher than the third round. These CUSA schools are not usually rolling in talent and just moving to the AAC will not fix that issue.

The MWC is recruiting California and the western region, with some recruiting in Texas. They are on Fox and CBS. They are not really going head-to-head against the AAC, and they did not lose their three best teams to the Big 12. They are not competing for recruits with the other four G5 conferences. The MWC would argue that they have a geographical advantage. I would argue that no one has the advantage these days among G5 conferences.

^^^^^^