quo vadis
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RE: Big East & AAC
My replies in red ink.
(04-19-2022 12:48 AM)Milwaukee Wrote: (04-18-2022 02:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote: I'd say the Big East today has more status and respect than it did 12 years ago
That's not an easy case to prove considering...
EXHIBIT A:
12 years ago, five Big East football teams were ranked in the Final AP Top 25. The Big East champion, Miami, was the national champion. There is no Big East football conference in 2022.
EXHIBIT B:
12 years ago, there were 11 Big East teams in the NCAA tournament, and 7 of them were ranked in the final AP Top 25. There were only 6 nBE teams in the 2022 tournament, and only 3 ended up being ranked.
12 years ago, the Big East had received an average of 8.7 NCAA bids over the past three seasons, and it had an average of 6 teams in the final AP Top 25. The nBE has only received an average of 4.7 NCAA bids over the last three years and has only had an average of 2.7 teams in the final AP Top 25.
To be clear, my statement refers to the "overall" status of the Big East conference today compared with say 2010. Certainly, circa 2010, Big East basketball was highly respected, even moreso than today's Big East basketball is. It was a powerhouse, arguably the top hoops conference, and was regarded as such by just about everyone.
But, football was IMO an entirely different matter. Despite the success of Big East football on the field, the Big East football conference was constantly derided by fans and media. It was called names like the "Big Least" and there were constant efforts to demote it from the ranks of the AQ conferences. And football just matters more than hoops.
So in an "overall" sense, I stand by my statement that the Big East of today has more status and respect than the Big East of circa 2010. It shouldn't have been that way, but I think it was and is. Sadly, the 2010 Big East's high status/respect in hoops was drug down by the low regard for its football.
(04-18-2022 02:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote: The old Big East was constantly derided as being unworthy, even though those claims lacked merit. In contrast, the current new Big East gets respect from everyone as a hoops conference.
That certainly doesn't apply to the Big East basketball conference, which was considered an overnight success, almost from its inception in 1981, and there were many who considered the BE football conference to be a full-fledged power conference that was comparable, at the very least with the ACC from the very beginning.
There were more nationally ranked basketball teams in the first decade of the "Old Big East" than there have been in the past decade (22), and there were more than twice as many nationally-ranked teams in the conference's second decade as there have been in the past decade.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/con.../big-east/
The Old Big East's Football rankings:
Some may have perceived the Big East football conference as the least powerful of the power conferences in those seasons when it was ranked #6th in the nation (e.g., in 2002), but others viewed the Big East as a legitimate power conference from the very beginning, when Miami finished the 1991 as the nation's #1 ranked football team (notably, Miami finished 11 of its 12 seasons in the Big East (1991-2001) ) in the Final AP Top 20.
The Big East football was never considered second-rate from the standpoint of the BCS. It was a BCS from the inception of the BCS. Many college sports fans viewed the Big East as being comparable with most of the other power conferences - - which it certainly was in the national rankings, in 2000, and between 2006 and 2012:
The Big East football conference finished the 2008 and 2009 seasons ranked #2nd nationally, ahead of 4 P5 conferences, according to:
https://cfbrpi.blogspot.com/2008/01/fina...e-rpi.html
https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2009-15.htm
In 2000 and 2007, the Big East was ranked #3 or #4th, nationally, by Sagarin and/or teamrankings.com, respectively, according to this source:
https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/20...college-fo
In 2006, the Big East was ranked #3rd, on average, based on the average rankings of realtimerpi.com and of Sagarin and teamrankings.com.
http://www.realtimerpi.com/football/2006...f_Men.html
https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/20...college-fo
In 2011 and 2012, the Big East was the 5th-ranked P5 football conference, ranked ahead of the ACC.
https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2011-15.htm
https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2012-15.htm
As I agreed earlier in this post, my comment does not apply to Big East hoops, which always garnered high respect.
Also, you do an admirable job of explaining how good Big East football actually was. Some of it is IMO not entirely relevant, because e.g. you mention Miami winning the 1991 national title, while the issue here is Big East status circa 2010, but you also do a great job of explaining how good Big East football was post-2005, after the first round of ACC raids, was as well. On the field, the 2005-2010 Big East did in fact perform like a "Power" level football league.
Nevertheless, my recollection is that it did not receive the respect commensurate with that performance, and the issue I raised was status and respect, not performance. To the contrary, the Big East of the late 2000s was routinely ridiculed as the "runt" of the AQ litter, and there were many calls for it to be demoted out of the AQ ranks. Despite the objectively good performance on the field, it was IMO ridiculed and not accorded much respect. The Big East was to my recall constantly under attack and having to defend itself as a Power/AQ league.
(04-18-2022 02:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote: As a hoops conference, it has the same level of regard and respect as the Autonomy conferences. The AAC doesn't have that in either football or hoops
That may have been the case in 2020 and 2022, but it was to a lesser extent in 2019 and 2021, when it was only ranked slightly ahead of the AAC:
2021 Massey Composite Basketball Conference Rankings:
1. Big Ten
2. PAC-12
3. Big 12
4. SEC
5. Big East
6. ACC
7. AAC
2019 Massey Composite Basketball Conference Rankings:
1. Big 12
2. Big Ten
3. SEC
4. ACC
5. Big East
6. AAC
7. PAC-12
First, again, my point is about status and respect, not performance. They aren't the same. You can perform poorly but still have high status, or vice-versa. As we've discussed, the Big East of the late 2000s performed well on the football field, but IMO they were not accorded the status and respect (by fans, media, etc.) that their performance seemed to merit. IMO, the current Big East gets plenty of respect as a hoops conference, the AAC does not.
But even if we talk performance, this data is not compelling. First, whether by a small amount or a large amount, the Big East was ranked ahead of the AAC in all four of the years you mention, 2019-2022. That IMO is a very convincing pattern, 4-0. It's kind of like if my team plays your team four straight years, it doesn't matter if two of the years you beat us 31-10 but the other two are close, say 21-17, the bottom line is, you beat us four straight years, and that's domination.
Furthermore, as I said in another post, it's not just the MC. To my knowledge, all the other major rank systems - NET, RPI, KenPom - uniformly have the Big East > AAC every year as well. I think it is literally 32-0 (all four systems x 8 years) in favor of the Big East over the last 8 years.
But even if we look at those two years you say the MC has the AAC and Big East close, 2019 and 2021, the data is not as close as the rank-orderings indicate. For example, in 2019, the MC has the Big 12 as the top conference, its mean score is 40.86. The Big East is #5, its average is 66.79. So between #1 and #5, there is a gap of just about 26 average points. The #4 conference was the ACC, and its mean average was 62, four points better than the Big East. All five schools within 26 points of each other.
In contrast, the dropoff between the #5 Big East and #5 AAC is massive. The AAC's mean score is 101.47, about 35 points below the Big East. Considerably more than the entire gap between the #5 Big East and #1 B12. So it is pretty clear that in the MC, the AAC performed nowhere near as well as the Big East, despite them being #5 and #6 in the rankings. Categorically, the Big East was clearly in the "P" group, while the AAC at #6 was not. We see the same thing in 2021 as well - Big East MC score is 70, AAC is 102, a massive difference, IMO.
(04-18-2022 02:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote: The AAC doesn't have that, in either football or hoops.
Perhaps not, but the AAC champions have played in the 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 NY6 bowls, and the AAC champion advanced to the national semifinals in 2022.
Yes, but save for Cincy making the CFP playoffs, those are at best indicators of AAC respect within the G5, not vis-a-vis Power leagues. It's one thing to be regarded as the top G5 conference (which the AAC is so regarded as), but that doesn't mean you have respect as a Power league.
Moreover, the Massey Composite football rankings of the AAC football in 2019 and 2022 were broadly comparable with the nBE's basketball rankings in 2019 and 2021, (i.e., ahead of, or within one point of, at least one P5 conference in the rankings).
Again, IMO performance is not the same thing as respect/status. But even if we look at performance - picking out AAC football in 2019 and 2022 to compare with Big East hoops in 2019 and 2021? Right off the bat, this seems like cherry-picking to me.
2022 Massey Composite Football Conference Rankings:
.............Mean Rank:
PAC-12.....68.02
MWC.........68.75
AAC..........68.92
Well, the first thing I'd say here is that the AAC wasn't even the best G5 football conference in 2022, it finished behind the MW.
In contrast, the 2021 and 2019 Big East hoops never finished behind any G5 conferences. In fact, both years it finished ahead of at least one P5 conference - the ACC in 2021 and the PAC in 2019.
In the entire 8 years of the CFP era, IIRC the Big East hoops has *never* finished behind a non-P5 league. Ever. In contrast, in the MC, AAC football has finished behind a fellow G5 league in 3 of the 8 years. The AAC hasn't even been the "tallest runt" in 3 of 8 football seasons, including 2 of the last 4.
In 2019, the AAC finished in 5th place, ahead of the ACC.
2019 Massey Composite Football Conference Rankings:
1. SEC
2. Big 12
3. Big Ten
4. PAC-12
5. AAC
6. ACC
Yes, this is the one time in 8 years of the CFP that the AAC football finished ahead of a P5 league in football. By a smidge, but OK, a win is a win. Ahead of one P5 league, one time, in 8 years of the CFP.
But as I said, the AAC has also finished behind other G5 leagues 3 times in those 8 years, including this year. The AAC has been much more likely to finish behind another G5 than it has been to finish ahead of a P5 - at least 3 times as likely.
In contrast, new Big East hoops is way, way more likely to finish ahead of a P5 - it does that basically every year, sometimes beating out multiple P5, like this year, and has *never* finished behind a G5 league in any year.
IMO, that is pretty convincing evidence that during recent years, since the split, Big East hoops has far outperformed AAC football.
No wonder Big East hoops is IMO accorded "P-level" respect while AAC football is not.
(04-18-2022 02:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote: And the AAC is stuck with a $5.5m media deal for the next 10 years, and has to incur tens of millions in operating deficits to get that. The nBE gets $4.5m in media and doesn't have to do that.
That's off by $1.44M per school per year, not including millions in football bowl revenue.
"The AAC's deal (with ESPN), which begins in the 2020-21 season, comes out to $83.3 million per year to be distributed to member schools, which includes the Cincinnati Bearcats. (AAC) Member schools will get an average of $6.94 million annually."
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/...215436002/
Football revenue (distributed to AAC, but not to nBE schools):
Based on calculations from the 2020-21 season the following distributions were made in the spring of 2021: Each of the 10 conferences received a base amount. The five conferences that do not have contacts for their champions to participate in the Orange, Rose or Sugar bowls received approximately $83 million in aggregate (full academic pool plus base).
https://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bowl-schedule/2021/
Regarding the media deals, yes, AAC schools are apparently getting about $6m right now, with that value escalating up to around $8m over the life of the contract. So I was off by about about a half-million in media money right now.
What I was referring to though - and my fault for being inaccurate - is that once the new members join in 2023, the deal's average will reportedly fall from around $7m per school to around $5.5m per school, because while the leftover members will still continue to get the full amount, the $7m, reports have said that the six new members are being brought in at about half that amount, or around $3.5m per school, so as to keep the legacy members at the full amount.
But a conference is all its members, not just the ones at the top. So if reports are correct, from 2023 onwards, the average media payout will be about $5.5m, not $7m, per school.
Finally, good point about CFP/Bowl money, that has to be factored in as well. If we assume the AAC gets an average of about $20 million per year in CFP/Bowl money, and we divide that by 11 schools, that comes out to about $2m a year per school. So on top of that $7m in media money (falling to $5.5m in 2020), we add $2m, so about $9m per school overall.
IMO, that is far too little to overcome the enormous operating deficits that are incurred by G5 FBS football to get that. E.g., NCAA data shows that on average, G5 schools run operating deficits of about $10m a year more than D1 non-football schools, like the Big East.
Anyway, good discussion.
(This post was last modified: 04-20-2022 06:59 AM by quo vadis.)
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