(12-22-2021 06:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 06:20 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Just passing along…

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/a...t.amp.html

Thanks for posting CJ, but two things immediately stopped me in my tracks:

1) The author says she won't classify conferences that stood pat (did not lose or add schools) as winners or losers. IMO this means an incomplete analysis.

2) Calling CUSA a "winner" made me to spill hot coffee all over myself. This is just silly, IMO. They are the second Biggest Loser in all this, IMO.

Other than that, I agree with her about the other conferences.

LOL! I almost choked on my coffeee when I read that as well. Maybe she is trying to be supportive of the first female FBS Commissioner. But it is not a reflection of Judy MacLeod's leadership, who took over an operation that had a lot of issues. On the other hand, she has not done much to improve it. Any time you lose nine teams in a period of less than a month, you are definitely not a winner.

But as the WAC has shown, all you are trying to do is survive and in the case of CUSA, continue to collect that CFP revenue at the end of the year. Plus, collect the CUSA exit fees which are estimated at about $3 million per school.

(12-22-2021 04:40 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 04:32 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 04:28 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 02:55 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 01:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  They went from being above the Sun Belt to being now the place for FCS callups.

That's the definition of a loser in realignment. Crap rolls downhill.

Could have sworn the SBC just added a FCS call up.

That's largely because there weren't any more CUSA teams they wanted to poach. JMU was a better option than any of them. If losing 9 of your 14 members doesn't make you a loser, I can't imagine what does.

Could be a lot of the 9 were not very good nor have a good chance to be.

Guess your saying WKU which just beat one of the top SBC teams isnt worthy? Hard logic to follow unless someone is just trying to make their self feel better.

So you are saying CUSA was a lousy conference before getting poached and had nowhere to go but up. I'll agree with the first part of that sentence.

Saying most of the lousy members have went off to make other lousy conferences lousier.
All comes down to do you want better athletics, bigger markets or less travel. Most of the shifting was because of the latter two and I prefer the first one. If your judging on travel and markets CUSA is taking a step down but not on the field. The other conferences minus the SEC are going down on the field. The SEC is probably about even. Texas is a drag and OU is above average.

Fans are the biggest losers in all of this. Rivalries being lost and so on.

A few points:

- No conference really "wins" or "loses" based on not expanding. It depends on what would be the alternatives to expansion and whether or not that alternative creates more gain for the conference than adding another program.

- For this round, I think the only "loser" would be C-USA. Both the Big 12 and AAC are "wait and see" scenarios. The Big 12 did "lose" in prestige in losing Oklahoma and that's a very big deal. However, programs like Cincinnati, BYU, UCF, Oklahoma State and Baylor are capable of filling in. Nobody can really replace the fanbase of an Oklahoma but it's a conference that still cares a lot about football. What would keep them together is that none of the remaining programs are really wanted by other conferences. So there's hope that they can move on together.

- It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that the SEC "won" just by putting themselves in a position where no other major conference can seriously catch them. Whether OUT can compete in the conference would be simply gravy. The fact of the matter is that no other conference will have those two major programs. They've achieved their objective.

- I'm taking a wait-and-see attitude on both the AAC and Sun Belt. Maybe leaving the C-USA will put those programs in a better position to advance. But not all of them will, so it's going to be interesting who is able to make the most of the opportunity. I'm not much a fan of the argument that past performance predicts future results. With the right investment and leadership any of the G-level programs can become a winner.

(12-22-2021 09:04 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 04:40 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 04:32 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 04:28 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 02:55 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  Could have sworn the SBC just added a FCS call up.

That's largely because there weren't any more CUSA teams they wanted to poach. JMU was a better option than any of them. If losing 9 of your 14 members doesn't make you a loser, I can't imagine what does.

Could be a lot of the 9 were not very good nor have a good chance to be.

Guess your saying WKU which just beat one of the top SBC teams isnt worthy? Hard logic to follow unless someone is just trying to make their self feel better.

So you are saying CUSA was a lousy conference before getting poached and had nowhere to go but up. I'll agree with the first part of that sentence.

Saying most of the lousy members have went off to make other lousy conferences lousier.
All comes down to do you want better athletics, bigger markets or less travel. Most of the shifting was because of the latter two and I prefer the first one. If your judging on travel and markets CUSA is taking a step down but not on the field. The other conferences minus the SEC are going down on the field. The SEC is probably about even. Texas is a drag and OU is above average.

Disagree in regards to the Sunbelt. The Sunbelt didn't lose anyone...they kept all of their good teams, and added at least 2 more quality teams, 1 team that fits perfectly into the footprint, and 1 team that tagged along, but will do quite well creating future rivalries.

The Sunbelt West (generally regarded as the weaker side of the conference) got more competitive by adding a strong team from the Eastern side in Troy, and then added a team right in the middle of the western footprint. At worst, that team will be a regular win for the top of the west, while joining the carousel fight with the bottom teams, while building rivalries in the process.

The East most certainly got stronger. Although they lost Troy, they add Marshall, and JMU...both highly competitive teams. ODU is coming also and may very well be the easiest game for everyone on that side of the conference. Simply put, that side of the conference will beat themselves up yearly.

I don’t think the SEC is as much a winner as everyone suspects.

UT-Austin is a dumpster fire with overactive boosters who think their part time title is Athletic Director.

Oklahoma is a good program, but there’s a high likelihood they are a big fish in a small pond. There’s a high likelihood they won’t be in the top two in their division.

The combination of those two have to add more revenue to the conference to offset two more schools taking a fair share of the revenues. TV is a shrinking market and the schools aren’t going to generate a substantial greater amount of units in the NCAA bball tourney. Maybe CBS will fork over more money. I wouldn’t bet on millions more per school though.

(12-22-2021 11:19 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  A few points:

- No conference really "wins" or "loses" based on not expanding. It depends on what would be the alternatives to expansion and whether or not that alternative creates more gain for the conference than adding another program.

- For this round, I think the only "loser" would be C-USA. Both the Big 12 and AAC are "wait and see" scenarios. The Big 12 did "lose" in prestige in losing Oklahoma and that's a very big deal. However, programs like Cincinnati, BYU, UCF, Oklahoma State and Baylor are capable of filling in. Nobody can really replace the fanbase of an Oklahoma but it's a conference that still cares a lot about football. What would keep them together is that none of the remaining programs are really wanted by other conferences. So there's hope that they can move on together.

- It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that the SEC "won" just by putting themselves in a position where no other major conference can seriously catch them. Whether OUT can compete in the conference would be simply gravy. The fact of the matter is that no other conference will have those two major programs. They've achieved their objective.

- I'm taking a wait-and-see attitude on both the AAC and Sun Belt. Maybe leaving the C-USA will put those programs in a better position to advance. But not all of them will, so it's going to be interesting who is able to make the most of the opportunity. I'm not much a fan of the argument that past performance predicts future results. With the right investment and leadership any of the G-level programs can become a winner.

There is no debate on the biggest loser. The Big 12 came out of conference realignment the biggest loser. The SEC a big winner. The other three power conferences were so shaken up they formed an Alliance. Losing Texas and Oklahoma was devastating to the Big 12 and there is no way to replace their value and production.

CUSA lost nine schools, so they are a loser. The AAC lost Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, so they are a loser as well. The SBC made some apparent gains and nothing changed with the MWC/MAC. The only real winner in conference realignment among FBS conferences was the SEC.

(12-23-2021 12:51 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  I don’t think the SEC is as much a winner as everyone suspects.

UT-Austin is a dumpster fire with overactive boosters who think their part time title is Athletic Director.

Oklahoma is a good program, but there’s a high likelihood they are a big fish in a small pond. There’s a high likelihood they won’t be in the top two in their division.

The combination of those two have to add more revenue to the conference to offset two more schools taking a fair share of the revenues. TV is a shrinking market and the schools aren’t going to generate a substantial greater amount of units in the NCAA bball tourney. Maybe CBS will fork over more money. I wouldn’t bet on millions more per school though.

Texas was added because of their brand. On-field performance doesnt matter.

Thats the way realignment works. If football or basketball performance mattered the most then Boise and Gonzaga would be in much bigger conferences by now. Boise cant even get a full invite into the AAC. Theres other factors that are much more important than the W/L.

(12-23-2021 12:55 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 11:19 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  A few points:

- No conference really "wins" or "loses" based on not expanding. It depends on what would be the alternatives to expansion and whether or not that alternative creates more gain for the conference than adding another program.

- For this round, I think the only "loser" would be C-USA. Both the Big 12 and AAC are "wait and see" scenarios. The Big 12 did "lose" in prestige in losing Oklahoma and that's a very big deal. However, programs like Cincinnati, BYU, UCF, Oklahoma State and Baylor are capable of filling in. Nobody can really replace the fanbase of an Oklahoma but it's a conference that still cares a lot about football. What would keep them together is that none of the remaining programs are really wanted by other conferences. So there's hope that they can move on together.

- It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that the SEC "won" just by putting themselves in a position where no other major conference can seriously catch them. Whether OUT can compete in the conference would be simply gravy. The fact of the matter is that no other conference will have those two major programs. They've achieved their objective.

- I'm taking a wait-and-see attitude on both the AAC and Sun Belt. Maybe leaving the C-USA will put those programs in a better position to advance. But not all of them will, so it's going to be interesting who is able to make the most of the opportunity. I'm not much a fan of the argument that past performance predicts future results. With the right investment and leadership any of the G-level programs can become a winner.

There is no debate on the biggest loser. The Big 12 came out of conference realignment the biggest loser. The SEC a big winner. The other three power conferences were so shaken up they formed an Alliance. Losing Texas and Oklahoma was devastating to the Big 12 and there is no way to replace their value and production.

CUSA lost nine schools, so they are a loser. The AAC lost Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, so they are a loser as well. The SBC made some apparent gains and nothing changed with the MWC/MAC. The only real winner in conference realignment among FBS conferences was the SEC.

I could nibble pointlessly at the margins of this, but basically IMO you nailed it.

If forced to nibble, I would say the MW was a 'winner' as well, though not nearly as much as the SEC. But since they have been second-fiddle to the AAC among the G5, and as you say the AAC was a loser, the MW has improved its standing in the G5 as a result. That's a win, IMO.

(12-23-2021 12:51 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  Oklahoma is a good program, but there’s a high likelihood they are a big fish in a small pond. There’s a high likelihood they won’t be in the top two in their division.

Oklahoma's nightmare: that they become the next Arkansas.

Maybe the better way to access the winners and losers would be to evaluate each programs instead of conferences. Which programs won and which programs lost?

(12-22-2021 05:41 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 04:40 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 04:32 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 04:28 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 02:55 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  Could have sworn the SBC just added a FCS call up.

That's largely because there weren't any more CUSA teams they wanted to poach. JMU was a better option than any of them. If losing 9 of your 14 members doesn't make you a loser, I can't imagine what does.

Could be a lot of the 9 were not very good nor have a good chance to be.

Guess your saying WKU which just beat one of the top SBC teams isnt worthy? Hard logic to follow unless someone is just trying to make their self feel better.

So you are saying CUSA was a lousy conference before getting poached and had nowhere to go but up. I'll agree with the first part of that sentence.

AAC added 6 lousy schools with markets.

That's just "a wee bit" of an over-simplification:

- - FACT CHECK: - -

Football:

• #24 (AP) UTSA had an extremely impressive season, finishing the regular season with a 12-1 record, making it their second straight winning season.
  .
• UTSA has averaged 9.5 wins/year in 2020 and 2021.
  .
• UAB finished their season with a 9-4 record and have capped it off by defeating #12 BYU in their bowl game, making 2021 their 5th winning season in a row.
  .
• UAB has averaged 8.4 wins/year since 2017.
  .
• North Texas went on a late season tear and finished the season by qualifying for a bowl game. They have won an average of 6.4 wins/year since 2017.
  
  

Basketball:

• UAB is currently 10-3 and is ranked #48 in the NET and #50 by kenpom.com.
  .
• UAB is projected as a likely 2022 NCAA team according to bracketmatrix.com.
  .
• UAB is currently in the midst of their 9th consecutive winning season.
  .
• The Blazers have won an average of 20.57 wins/year since 2014-15.
  .
• North Texas is currently 7-3.
  .
• North Texas is currently ranked #65 by kenpom.com.
  .
• The UNT Mean Green played in the 2021 NCAA tournament.
  .
• North Texas has won an average of 20 games/year since 2017-18.
  
  

The AAC will have its share of challenges in the years ahead, but it seems likely that the successes of UTSA's football program, UAB football and basketball and UNT football and basketball will help to ensure that the conference will continue, at least, to have some upper echelon programs in the years ahead.
.

(12-23-2021 10:04 AM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  Maybe the better way to access the winners and losers would be to evaluate each programs instead of conferences. Which programs won and which programs lost?

It would take too long to go through each program, but I think a loser in this round would be Texas A&M. Getting away from Texas was a huge win for them. Now they are stuck in the same conference with them again (although Texas in the SEC probably doesn’t run the show like it did in the Big XII) and they lose some of the recruiting advantage that being in the SEC gave them over Texas.

I’m not saying they’ll go right back to second fiddle, but over time if Texas finds the right coach….

(12-22-2021 12:52 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  Still not seeing a good argument for CUSA being a loser.

It's not like you are a fan of an fcs team that's joining them or anything..... Why would you see what's wrong here?

(12-22-2021 07:42 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Let’s see in five years who were the winners and losers in the 2021 realignment.

Yep.

It's premature to call winners and losers. Who knows how the landscape will shift or how these moves will pan out right now. Also, how do you define who is a winner and who is a loser? I am hard pressed to call additional revenue the deciding factor.... one could argue that Nebraska was better off staying in the BXII years ago, but the money was too great. Did they win or lose? IDK

What about Syracuse? They were in the Big East, where the conference men's basketball tournament was played in MSG every year (which basically was a home invitational for them). They got more money by jumping ship, their football is not any better. Did they win or lose? IDK

How has Missouri fared in the SEC? More money, but...

I can say one of the biggest winners in this latest round of realignment was Belmont. Once officially a member of the Missouri Valley, the university will be aligned with universities with more, collectively, prestigious basketball and academics than those in the OVC. I'm happy for my Bruins.

Conversely, Memphis is a loser. We will see the departure to the Big 12 of two of our all-time best rivals in both football and hoops (Houston and Cincinnati). That is crushing to Memphis. And recalling the day when Louisville (another huge rival) and Cincy left for the Big East ... uncertainty faces the Tiger football and hoops programs.

But there are multiple leagues and individual programs that either won or lost (or perhaps both won and lost) ... we might not truly know for a few years the true winners and losers.

(12-23-2021 10:10 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 05:41 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 04:40 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 04:32 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 04:28 PM)ken d Wrote:  That's largely because there weren't any more CUSA teams they wanted to poach. JMU was a better option than any of them. If losing 9 of your 14 members doesn't make you a loser, I can't imagine what does.

Could be a lot of the 9 were not very good nor have a good chance to be.

Guess your saying WKU which just beat one of the top SBC teams isnt worthy? Hard logic to follow unless someone is just trying to make their self feel better.

So you are saying CUSA was a lousy conference before getting poached and had nowhere to go but up. I'll agree with the first part of that sentence.

AAC added 6 lousy schools with markets.

That's just "a wee bit" of an over-simplification:

- - FACT CHECK: - -

Football:

• #24 (AP) UTSA had an extremely impressive season, finishing the regular season with a 12-1 record, making it their second straight winning season.
  .
• UTSA has averaged 9.5 wins/year in 2020 and 2021.
  .
• UAB finished their season with a 9-4 record and have capped it off by defeating #12 BYU in their bowl game, making 2021 their 5th winning season in a row.
  .
• UAB has averaged 8.4 wins/year since 2017.
  .
• North Texas went on a late season tear and finished the season by qualifying for a bowl game. They have won an average of 6.4 wins/year since 2017.
  
  

Basketball:

• UAB is currently 10-3 and is ranked #48 in the NET and #50 by kenpom.com.
  .
• UAB is projected as a likely 2022 NCAA team according to bracketmatrix.com.
  .
• UAB is currently in the midst of their 9th consecutive winning season.
  .
• The Blazers have won an average of 20.57 wins/year since 2014-15.
  .
• North Texas is currently 7-3.
  .
• North Texas is currently ranked #65 by kenpom.com.
  .
• The UNT Mean Green played in the 2021 NCAA tournament.
  .
• North Texas has won an average of 20 games/year since 2017-18.
  
  

The AAC will have its share of challenges in the years ahead, but it seems likely that the successes of UTSA's football program, UAB football and basketball and UNT football and basketball will help to ensure that the conference will continue, at least, to have some upper echelon programs in the years ahead.
.

Nice cherry picking of programs/stats. Here are the rest of the AAC pickups and UTSA bball.

Char football - 1 winning season in the 7 years they've played football
Char bball - 3 winning seasons in the last 10 years
FAU football - 2 winning seasons in the last 10 years (yes, did include 2 CUSA championships)
FAU bball - 2 winning seasons in the last 10 years
Rice football - 3 winning seasons in the last 10 years
Rice bball - 2 winning seasons in the last 10 years
UTSA bball - 3 winning seasons in the last 10 years

IMO, the only conference that was a winner in this round was the SEC. All SEC schools will be better able to manage future changes in collegiate athletics.

The other realignments just clarified the pecking-order amongst FBS conferences. The power/autonomous conferences have been able to operate collegiate athletics without significant institutional subsidies. As a whole, the Big XII is the biggest loser…it will take time to determine if the conference can continue to grow revenues at the same levels of the other autonomous conferences. Regardless, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF and BYU were the biggest winners amongst the schools…they have a great opportunity to enhance their brands.

Classifying CUSA as a winner in conference realignment doesn’t make sense. CUSA is just making moves that allow it to barely survive in the FBS structure. It appears that a learning from the SWC dissolution is that remaining members are better-off remaining together.

(12-23-2021 10:38 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(12-22-2021 12:52 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  Still not seeing a good argument for CUSA being a loser.

It's not like you are a fan of an fcs team that's joining them or anything..... Why would you see what's wrong here?

I do see several underperforming teams leaving. How is that bad? Recent FCS programs have done much better than older FCS callups. ie App and CCU vs GSU, ODU. Expect the trend to continue as the ones coming expect to win historically.

Liberty has done quite well lately. Make up whatever makes you feel better about getting teams located close to you who havent performed well.

...the author of the column is a Florida grad (well, from the looks of her, she may still be a STUDENT...) - but that probably explains the dismissal of UCF and the AAC, and by extension the Big XII...

...as a cockeyed optimist (which is typically in direct conflict with being a UAB fan, but we are in a pretty good place right now, somewhat miraculously... ), I think ALL conferences in the realignment mix are poised to make waves... of course I'm hoping for the best for the AAC, but the Belt is VERY well positioned, football-wise, and it will be interesting to see how those Fun Belt games/new rivalries evolve over time... Marshall/Appy alone will be a pretty gnarly annual one... USM/USA could be a big one soon as well...

...as to our 'fixing to be old home', C-USA, there is a LOT of great potential there... the 'call-ups', especially Jax St, have LOTS of upside - I see them getting to a pretty good level, football-wise within 4-5 seasons, if not sooner... not as familiar with SHSU, but in the heart of Texas, and an FCS power there, there should be lots of progress for them as well... Liberty and NMSU (Jerry Kill as coach) are also going to be promising adds... the teams remaining in C-USA obviously have some great potential, and hopefully they will get a great media package compared to the current one... I'm rooting for all of them, even those confounded LaTechsters...

Also looking pretty good this bowl season, that C-USA crowd...even the losses were pretty hard fought ones...