(09-14-2021 10:49 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?

No, nor is Navy going Indy. The AAC should go get ODU, Marshall, App. State, JMU, UAB and Georgia State. If JMU doesn’t move up, add one of Louisiana, UTSA, Rice, La. Tech, Charlotte, Coastal, Ga. Southern, USM or FAU. They you are prepared if/when Memphis gets a call-up.

East: Temple, Marshall, JMU, ODU, App. State, ECU, USF
West: Ga. State, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy

Assuming the above scenario, the Belt adds Charlotte, FAU, UTSA, USM
East: Charlotte, Coastal, GS, FAU, Troy, USA.
West: USM, ULM, Louisiana, ASU, TSU, UTSA.

CUSA - MTSU, WKU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, La. Tech and FIU add NMSU, UConn,* UMass, Liberty, Sam Houston.

East: UConn,* UMass*, MTSU, WKU, Liberty, FIU.
West: NMSU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, Sam Houston, La. Tech..

AAC adds UAB, Marshall, Rice, Army (AAC might like the 12 fb, 11 bb setup. I don't think Dayton or VCU would leave for this AAC)
CUSA adds JMU
SBC adds Sam Houston St., Liberty (if they still have a problem w/ the Flames then EKU)
MWC adds Gonzaga (If MWC were to add 2 not from the AAC, I think UNT and UTSA get the call.)
WCC adds Seattle, CBU
WAC adds W.Texas A&M
ASUN adds W.Florida
CAA adds Winthrop
BSC adds NCCU
MEAC adds Chicago St. (Virginia St. if they can ever afford to move up or someone in the area from D-II that just wants to jump to D-I)

(09-14-2021 11:53 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 10:49 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?

No, nor is Navy going Indy. The AAC should go get ODU, Marshall, App. State, JMU, UAB and Georgia State. If JMU doesn’t move up, add one of Louisiana, UTSA, Rice, La. Tech, Charlotte, Coastal, Ga. Southern, USM or FAU. They you are prepared if/when Memphis gets a call-up.

East: Temple, Marshall, JMU, ODU, App. State, ECU, USF
West: Ga. State, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy

Assuming the above scenario, the Belt adds Charlotte, FAU, UTSA, USM
East: Charlotte, Coastal, GS, FAU, Troy, USA.
West: USM, ULM, Louisiana, ASU, TSU, UTSA.

CUSA - MTSU, WKU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, La. Tech and FIU add NMSU, UConn,* UMass, Liberty, Sam Houston.

East: UConn,* UMass*, MTSU, WKU, Liberty, FIU.
West: NMSU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, Sam Houston, La. Tech..

UConn is not joining CUSA with that group of schools. If they wanted all that
travel, UConn would have stayed in the AAC.

(09-15-2021 05:06 AM)panite Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 11:53 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 10:49 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?

No, nor is Navy going Indy. The AAC should go get ODU, Marshall, App. State, JMU, UAB and Georgia State. If JMU doesn’t move up, add one of Louisiana, UTSA, Rice, La. Tech, Charlotte, Coastal, Ga. Southern, USM or FAU. They you are prepared if/when Memphis gets a call-up.

East: Temple, Marshall, JMU, ODU, App. State, ECU, USF
West: Ga. State, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy

Assuming the above scenario, the Belt adds Charlotte, FAU, UTSA, USM
East: Charlotte, Coastal, GS, FAU, Troy, USA.
West: USM, ULM, Louisiana, ASU, TSU, UTSA.

CUSA - MTSU, WKU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, La. Tech and FIU add NMSU, UConn,* UMass, Liberty, Sam Houston.

East: UConn,* UMass*, MTSU, WKU, Liberty, FIU.
West: NMSU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, Sam Houston, La. Tech..

UConn is not joining CUSA with that group of schools. If they wanted all that
travel, UConn would have stayed in the AAC.

Yeah but UConn left for basketball reasons and travel for all sports. If it's just football it's not as bad. Not saying it will happen but if they are offered a FB only spot in any G5 conference they could very well take it to help alleviate any possible scheduling issues in the future. To be honest though out of the G5 only 3 would have even the slimmest of possibilities (MAC, CUSA, Sun Belt)

UConn to the AFC East
Middlebury to the AAC (sad trombone)
UMass to the ACC

(09-14-2021 10:49 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?

The MWC has looked into this before. The idea is to get into the central time zone and what better place than Texas?

(09-15-2021 01:05 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  AAC adds UAB, Marshall, Rice, Army (AAC might like the 12 fb, 11 bb setup. I don't think Dayton or VCU would leave for this AAC)

Army was involved in my original prediction, and that would absolutely be a home run. The longer this drags out the less I think they’re involved because they would be an easy addition for football-only.

As long as Memphis and Wichita State are in the conference, I believe there could be some interest from Dayton. VCU I’m less sure of; St. Louis might be more realistic.

Any scenario that puts Liberty in with the likes of Sam Houston is a non-starter for Liberty. We are not giving up independence for those scenarios.

For the record, I live near Sam and many of their administrators inlcuding the AD are my neighbors. It's not personal. But no thanks.

(09-15-2021 05:14 AM)BigEastMike Wrote:  

(09-15-2021 05:06 AM)panite Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 11:53 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 10:49 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?

No, nor is Navy going Indy. The AAC should go get ODU, Marshall, App. State, JMU, UAB and Georgia State. If JMU doesn’t move up, add one of Louisiana, UTSA, Rice, La. Tech, Charlotte, Coastal, Ga. Southern, USM or FAU. They you are prepared if/when Memphis gets a call-up.

East: Temple, Marshall, JMU, ODU, App. State, ECU, USF
West: Ga. State, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy

Assuming the above scenario, the Belt adds Charlotte, FAU, UTSA, USM
East: Charlotte, Coastal, GS, FAU, Troy, USA.
West: USM, ULM, Louisiana, ASU, TSU, UTSA.

CUSA - MTSU, WKU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, La. Tech and FIU add NMSU, UConn,* UMass, Liberty, Sam Houston.

East: UConn,* UMass*, MTSU, WKU, Liberty, FIU.
West: NMSU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, Sam Houston, La. Tech..

UConn is not joining CUSA with that group of schools. If they wanted all that
travel, UConn would have stayed in the AAC.

Yeah but UConn left for basketball reasons and travel for all sports. If it's just football it's not as bad. Not saying it will happen but if they are offered a FB only spot in any G5 conference they could very well take it to help alleviate any possible scheduling issues in the future. To be honest though out of the G5 only 3 would have even the slimmest of possibilities (MAC, CUSA, Sun Belt)

CUSA is still > that the CAA or the Patriot League, which are UConn's other options. The UConn FB program is a leaderless dumpster fire right now and has been for a while. No coach save someone with either a Titanic's worth of baggage, or who is a way past his prime retread, is taking that job to continue trying to Iditarod the Huskies through the barren, frozen wasteland of Northeastern FBS independence.

UConn’s future schedules actually look good. Have you seen them?

Carolina visits their place in 2027.

(09-15-2021 05:06 AM)panite Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 11:53 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 10:49 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?

No, nor is Navy going Indy. The AAC should go get ODU, Marshall, App. State, JMU, UAB and Georgia State. If JMU doesn’t move up, add one of Louisiana, UTSA, Rice, La. Tech, Charlotte, Coastal, Ga. Southern, USM or FAU. They you are prepared if/when Memphis gets a call-up.

East: Temple, Marshall, JMU, ODU, App. State, ECU, USF
West: Ga. State, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy

Assuming the above scenario, the Belt adds Charlotte, FAU, UTSA, USM
East: Charlotte, Coastal, GS, FAU, Troy, USA.
West: USM, ULM, Louisiana, ASU, TSU, UTSA.

CUSA - MTSU, WKU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, La. Tech and FIU add NMSU, UConn,* UMass, Liberty, Sam Houston.

East: UConn,* UMass*, MTSU, WKU, Liberty, FIU.
West: NMSU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, Sam Houston, La. Tech..

UConn is not joining CUSA with that group of schools. If they wanted all that
travel, UConn would have stayed in the AAC.

UCONN wanted to stay FB only in the AAC, and the AAC kindly and rightfully told them to go pound sand. I'm not sure if they'd join that league or any league football only, mostly since I think they'll probably drop to FCS or drop football entirely in the near future, but more importantly I don't see any league wanting UCONN FB only.

(09-15-2021 08:13 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-15-2021 05:06 AM)panite Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 11:53 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 10:49 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?

No, nor is Navy going Indy. The AAC should go get ODU, Marshall, App. State, JMU, UAB and Georgia State. If JMU doesn’t move up, add one of Louisiana, UTSA, Rice, La. Tech, Charlotte, Coastal, Ga. Southern, USM or FAU. They you are prepared if/when Memphis gets a call-up.

East: Temple, Marshall, JMU, ODU, App. State, ECU, USF
West: Ga. State, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy

Assuming the above scenario, the Belt adds Charlotte, FAU, UTSA, USM
East: Charlotte, Coastal, GS, FAU, Troy, USA.
West: USM, ULM, Louisiana, ASU, TSU, UTSA.

CUSA - MTSU, WKU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, La. Tech and FIU add NMSU, UConn,* UMass, Liberty, Sam Houston.

East: UConn,* UMass*, MTSU, WKU, Liberty, FIU.
West: NMSU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, Sam Houston, La. Tech..

UConn is not joining CUSA with that group of schools. If they wanted all that
travel, UConn would have stayed in the AAC.

UCONN wanted to stay FB only in the AAC, and the AAC kindly and rightfully told them to go pound sand. I'm not sure if they'd join that league or any league football only, mostly since I think they'll probably drop to FCS or drop football entirely in the near future, but more importantly I don't see any league wanting UCONN FB only.

Again, their future schedules say otherwise.

(09-15-2021 08:05 AM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(09-15-2021 05:14 AM)BigEastMike Wrote:  

(09-15-2021 05:06 AM)panite Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 11:53 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 10:49 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?

No, nor is Navy going Indy. The AAC should go get ODU, Marshall, App. State, JMU, UAB and Georgia State. If JMU doesn’t move up, add one of Louisiana, UTSA, Rice, La. Tech, Charlotte, Coastal, Ga. Southern, USM or FAU. They you are prepared if/when Memphis gets a call-up.

East: Temple, Marshall, JMU, ODU, App. State, ECU, USF
West: Ga. State, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy

Assuming the above scenario, the Belt adds Charlotte, FAU, UTSA, USM
East: Charlotte, Coastal, GS, FAU, Troy, USA.
West: USM, ULM, Louisiana, ASU, TSU, UTSA.

CUSA - MTSU, WKU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, La. Tech and FIU add NMSU, UConn,* UMass, Liberty, Sam Houston.

East: UConn,* UMass*, MTSU, WKU, Liberty, FIU.
West: NMSU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, Sam Houston, La. Tech..

UConn is not joining CUSA with that group of schools. If they wanted all that
travel, UConn would have stayed in the AAC.

Yeah but UConn left for basketball reasons and travel for all sports. If it's just football it's not as bad. Not saying it will happen but if they are offered a FB only spot in any G5 conference they could very well take it to help alleviate any possible scheduling issues in the future. To be honest though out of the G5 only 3 would have even the slimmest of possibilities (MAC, CUSA, Sun Belt)

CUSA is still > that the CAA or the Patriot League, which are UConn's other options. The UConn FB program is a leaderless dumpster fire right now and has been for a while. No coach save someone with either a Titanic's worth of baggage, or who is a way past his prime retread, is taking that job to continue trying to Iditarod the Huskies through the barren, frozen wasteland of Northeastern FBS independence.

You forgot the NEC, but that is just as realistic as the CAA or Patriot. UConn football appears to be a barnstorming program that will travel around, take their whipping, and get paid for doing so. I don't know if UConn cares if they are successful.

My Predictions are fairly boring and unlikely to shake the landscape much. Mostly involves backfilling to fill spots:

AAC - plucks 2-4 schools from CUSA/Sun Belt. My guess is 4 to get back to 12 and that it's Marshall, UAB, Rice, and Georgia State.

CUSA - now at 11 schools, they encounter unwillingness of any Sun Belt teams to move and simply call up James Madison and go to 12 and split the CFP pie fewer ways

Sun Belt - Now at 9 schools, they add Liberty for all sports or NMSU football only

MWC and MAC remain unchanged

WAC and Atlantic Sun - Starting around 2023 I think both conference will start raising the call to move to FBS with a variety of schools. In the case of the WAC I think it will be a bit easier, particularly if NMSU stays independent, but I think the CFP expansion as well as the NCAA constitutional convention this fall will determine whether it actually happens or not.

(09-15-2021 08:12 AM)esayem Wrote:  UConn’s future schedules actually look good. Have you seen them?

Carolina visits their place in 2027.

I confess to not looking. I'm a UVA fan and I'd rather suck it up and play at ODU or even ECU if we for some reason had to book a 2 for 1 with a G5 team, I just don't see any benefit to an ACC team traveling to play at UConn even it is a guaranteed win.

Gonzaga or Wichita state to the Mwc to pair with Hawaii should be the goal of the mwc

(09-15-2021 08:45 AM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(09-15-2021 08:12 AM)esayem Wrote:  UConn’s future schedules actually look good. Have you seen them?

Carolina visits their place in 2027.

I confess to not looking. I'm a UVA fan and I'd rather suck it up and play at ODU or even ECU if we for some reason had to book a 2 for 1 with a G5 team, I just don't see any benefit to an ACC team traveling to play at UConn even it is a guaranteed win.

Scheduling hasn't been a problem, they've signed series with almost half the ACC recently plus Maryland (and apparently Mississippi? I missed that one) and they have a TV deal for all their games (for now - if that changes a lot of the math changes). The issue's funding a coaching staff that can put a competent product on the field, and more importantly making the right hire.

(09-15-2021 08:28 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  My Predictions are fairly boring and unlikely to shake the landscape much. Mostly involves backfilling to fill spots:

AAC - plucks 2-4 schools from CUSA/Sun Belt. My guess is 4 to get back to 12 and that it's Marshall, UAB, Rice, and Georgia State.

CUSA - now at 11 schools, they encounter unwillingness of any Sun Belt teams to move and simply call up James Madison and go to 12 and split the CFP pie fewer ways

Sun Belt - Now at 9 schools, they add Liberty for all sports or NMSU football only

MWC and MAC remain unchanged

WAC and Atlantic Sun - Starting around 2023 I think both conference will start raising the call to move to FBS with a variety of schools. In the case of the WAC I think it will be a bit easier, particularly if NMSU stays independent, but I think the CFP expansion as well as the NCAA constitutional convention this fall will determine whether it actually happens or not.

It seems the Sun Belt is preparing to assist UTA and Little Rock to find new homes and will take the conference to 12 teams.

If the Sun Belt is left with 9 teams I really believe they invite 3 or the following 4. JMU, ODU, Southern Miss, and UTSA to try and get to 12.

(09-15-2021 09:04 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-15-2021 08:45 AM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(09-15-2021 08:12 AM)esayem Wrote:  UConn’s future schedules actually look good. Have you seen them?

Carolina visits their place in 2027.

I confess to not looking. I'm a UVA fan and I'd rather suck it up and play at ODU or even ECU if we for some reason had to book a 2 for 1 with a G5 team, I just don't see any benefit to an ACC team traveling to play at UConn even it is a guaranteed win.

Scheduling hasn't been a problem, they've signed series with almost half the ACC recently plus Maryland (and apparently Mississippi? I missed that one) and they have a TV deal for all their games (for now - if that changes a lot of the math changes). The issue's funding a coaching staff that can put a competent product on the field, and more importantly making the right hire.

If UConn continues on this trajectory in lack of success, I can’t imagine power schools will continue to want to schedule them. I wish them the very best but I’m not confident in their future as an FBS school.

(09-15-2021 08:13 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-15-2021 05:06 AM)panite Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 11:53 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 10:49 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?

No, nor is Navy going Indy. The AAC should go get ODU, Marshall, App. State, JMU, UAB and Georgia State. If JMU doesn’t move up, add one of Louisiana, UTSA, Rice, La. Tech, Charlotte, Coastal, Ga. Southern, USM or FAU. They you are prepared if/when Memphis gets a call-up.

East: Temple, Marshall, JMU, ODU, App. State, ECU, USF
West: Ga. State, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy

Assuming the above scenario, the Belt adds Charlotte, FAU, UTSA, USM
East: Charlotte, Coastal, GS, FAU, Troy, USA.
West: USM, ULM, Louisiana, ASU, TSU, UTSA.

CUSA - MTSU, WKU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, La. Tech and FIU add NMSU, UConn,* UMass, Liberty, Sam Houston.

East: UConn,* UMass*, MTSU, WKU, Liberty, FIU.
West: NMSU, UTEP, UNT, Rice, Sam Houston, La. Tech..

UConn is not joining CUSA with that group of schools. If they wanted all that
travel, UConn would have stayed in the AAC.

UCONN wanted to stay FB only in the AAC, and the AAC kindly and rightfully told them to go pound sand. I'm not sure if they'd join that league or any league football only, mostly since I think they'll probably drop to FCS or drop football entirely in the near future, but more importantly I don't see any league wanting UCONN FB only.

Playing FCS football at an off-campus rented stadium is a non-starter for any school. UConn is flagship R1 public. They’ll do everything they can to avoid dropping football. Plus it’s the rare university president who wants to withstand the heat from discontinuing football.

If they hire competent coaches UConn can be a middling G5 which is roughly their historical norm save for the three minutes that their basketball team’s conference affiliation got UConn football into the dying days of a power football conference. Neither party wants UConn football in the AAC.