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The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
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shizzle787 Offline
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The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
Now, that the Big 12 has officially expanded, here are my thoughts on the next dominoes falling.

I'm going to start with the Mountain West because I think they are going to make a pre-emptive strike on....C-USA for Rice and UTEP. I don't think the AAC or MW will be trading members but I do think the media package will be better for the MW this time around so the MW grabs Rice and UTEP before the AAC does. I also think Gonzaga realizes it needs to prepare for the future post-Few and gets into the MW as an Olympic sports member to balance Hawaii. The Mountain West becomes the de-facto #6 conference.

West: Utah State, Nevada, Hawaii, UNLV, SDSU, SJSU, Fresno State
Mountain: Rice, UTEP, Boise State, AFA, CSU, Wyoming, New Mexico

At this point, Navy has two options: stay in the AAC or go back to being independent. With the conference losing its major brands, the MW nabbing Rice and UTEP, and there being more independents than last time, Navy moves back to being independent.

The AAC wants to get back into Texas for a 2nd school, but SMU blocks North Texas and UTSA and Texas State don't have the brand necessary so the conference goes in another direction to get to 10 schools.


Louisiana's re-brand catapults the school into the pool of the invited alongside UAB and Marshall.

West: SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, Louisiana
East: UAB, Marshall, ECU, USF, Temple

The MAC looks around the landscape and stands pat.

C-USA is next up. With 4 defections, the conference is down to 10 schools. It will look to rip the band-aid off the Sun Belt (now down to 9 schools). It invites Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina to get to 12.

West: North Texas, Louisiana Tech, UTSA, MTSU, WKU, Southern Miss
East: ODU, Charlotte, FAU, FIU, App State, Coastal Carolina

Finally, the Sun Belt is up. Down to 7 schools, desperate times call for desperate measures. They invite NMSU, Liberty, and FCS James Madison to get to 10 football schools, and they cut UT-Arlington and Little Rock loose as Olympic members.

The remaining independents include Notre Dame, Navy, Army, UConn, and UMass. The latter four schedule each other yearly going forward.
09-14-2021 09:18 PM
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sstaedtler88 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
Why would App. State and Coastal leave the Sun Belt for Conference USA?
09-14-2021 09:20 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 09:20 PM)sstaedtler88 Wrote:  Why would App. State and Coastal leave the Sun Belt for Conference USA?

C-USA has a better brand nationally, and with several defections it won't be bloated.
09-14-2021 09:26 PM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
Counter thoughts: An MWC preemptive strike makes sense. Not sure on Rice/UTEP as the best options. In fact, I could see them make a play for SMU.

Sun Belt: even if they lose a school I don't think they go after NMSU. Nothing against NMSU. But I think they are going to try and tighten their geography, not grow it. So I'm thinking ODU/JMU and send Troy west. An East division of VA/NC/SC/Georgia is about as tight as you can get. I could also see USM/Marshall depending on what the AAC does.
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 10:35 PM by Soobahk40050.)
09-14-2021 09:34 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 09:26 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:20 PM)sstaedtler88 Wrote:  Why would App. State and Coastal leave the Sun Belt for Conference USA?

C-USA has a better brand nationally, and with several defections it won't be bloated.

Did you fall off the turnip truck as a child.
09-14-2021 09:37 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 09:34 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  Counter thoughts: An MWC preemptive strike makes sense. Not sure on Rice/UTEP as the best options. In fact, I could see them make a play for SMU.

Sun Belt: even if they lose a school I don't think they go after NMSU. Nothing against NMSU. But I think they are going to try and tighten their geography, not grow it. So I'm thinking ODU/JMU and send Troy west. An East division of VA/UNC/Georgia is about as tight as you can get. I could also see USM/Marshall depending on what the AAC does.

I think if ODU and Marshall have a chance to join a conference where they will have divisional games against JMU, App, and Southern they are going to make the move. Troy and USM fit great in the SBC West.

All this is contingent on whether App and/or Marshall goes to the AAC. Also if Southern Miss prefers SBC West vs CUSA West
09-14-2021 09:38 PM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 09:38 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:34 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  Counter thoughts: An MWC preemptive strike makes sense. Not sure on Rice/UTEP as the best options. In fact, I could see them make a play for SMU.

Sun Belt: even if they lose a school I don't think they go after NMSU. Nothing against NMSU. But I think they are going to try and tighten their geography, not grow it. So I'm thinking ODU/JMU and send Troy west. An East division of VA/UNC/Georgia is about as tight as you can get. I could also see USM/Marshall depending on what the AAC does.

I think if ODU and Marshall have a chance to join a conference where they will have divisional games against JMU, App, and Southern they are going to make the move. Troy and USM fit great in the SBC West.

All this is contingent on whether App and/or Marshall goes to the AAC. Also if Southern Miss prefers SBC West vs CUSA West

I should also clarify that I don't think the Sun Belt goes to 14. So it won't be all of Marshall/JMU/ODU/USM. If they don't lose any it's 2, if they lose one it's 3.
09-14-2021 09:50 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 09:50 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:38 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:34 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  Counter thoughts: An MWC preemptive strike makes sense. Not sure on Rice/UTEP as the best options. In fact, I could see them make a play for SMU.

Sun Belt: even if they lose a school I don't think they go after NMSU. Nothing against NMSU. But I think they are going to try and tighten their geography, not grow it. So I'm thinking ODU/JMU and send Troy west. An East division of VA/UNC/Georgia is about as tight as you can get. I could also see USM/Marshall depending on what the AAC does.

I think if ODU and Marshall have a chance to join a conference where they will have divisional games against JMU, App, and Southern they are going to make the move. Troy and USM fit great in the SBC West.

All this is contingent on whether App and/or Marshall goes to the AAC. Also if Southern Miss prefers SBC West vs CUSA West

I should also clarify that I don't think the Sun Belt goes to 14. So it won't be all of Marshall/JMU/ODU/USM. If they don't lose any it's 2, if they lose one it's 3.

It depends. I think JMU/ODU/Marshall are pushing to go together and I imagine App State is pushing the SBC hard in their direction. The west will at minimum want Southern Miss or another Texas school to pair with Texas State. That’s why I think the Sun Belt will go to 14. Plus it helps with defections down the road if the AAC ever comes.
09-14-2021 09:58 PM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 09:58 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:50 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:38 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:34 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  Counter thoughts: An MWC preemptive strike makes sense. Not sure on Rice/UTEP as the best options. In fact, I could see them make a play for SMU.

Sun Belt: even if they lose a school I don't think they go after NMSU. Nothing against NMSU. But I think they are going to try and tighten their geography, not grow it. So I'm thinking ODU/JMU and send Troy west. An East division of VA/UNC/Georgia is about as tight as you can get. I could also see USM/Marshall depending on what the AAC does.

I think if ODU and Marshall have a chance to join a conference where they will have divisional games against JMU, App, and Southern they are going to make the move. Troy and USM fit great in the SBC West.

All this is contingent on whether App and/or Marshall goes to the AAC. Also if Southern Miss prefers SBC West vs CUSA West

I should also clarify that I don't think the Sun Belt goes to 14. So it won't be all of Marshall/JMU/ODU/USM. If they don't lose any it's 2, if they lose one it's 3.

It depends. I think JMU/ODU/Marshall are pushing to go together and I imagine App State is pushing the SBC hard in their direction. The west will at minimum want Southern Miss or another Texas school to pair with Texas State. That’s why I think the Sun Belt will go to 14. Plus it helps with defections down the road if the AAC ever comes.

I think for a G5 to go 14 makes less sense than the P5 because of money. That being said those 4 to the SBC make alot more sense than some of the CUSA moves to get to 14.

But I do wonder if they did that if the "bloated" accusation from the CUSA would just shift to the Sun Belt.

Also, Frank the Tank's recent blog post reminds us realignmentologists that "s*** always rolls downhill" and when a lower level conference gets googly eyes at a higher level conference, then end up getting hammered. The idea is that the AAC really had no hope of poaching from the Big 12, but if the CUSA is still viewed as the higher level conference, then we should expect the Sun Belt to get poached and their options be the FCS call ups. But that might be old school thinking, which I guess is the question.
09-14-2021 10:24 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 09:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Now, that the Big 12 has officially expanded, here are my thoughts on the next dominoes falling.

I'm going to start with the Mountain West because I think they are going to make a pre-emptive strike on....C-USA for Rice and UTEP. I don't think the AAC or MW will be trading members but I do think the media package will be better for the MW this time around so the MW grabs Rice and UTEP before the AAC does. I also think Gonzaga realizes it needs to prepare for the future post-Few and gets into the MW as an Olympic sports member to balance Hawaii. The Mountain West becomes the de-facto #6 conference.

West: Utah State, Nevada, Hawaii, UNLV, SDSU, SJSU, Fresno State
Mountain: Rice, UTEP, Boise State, AFA, CSU, Wyoming, New Mexico

I think if the MWC were to expand it would opt for North Texas over UTEP. The conference wants a presence in the DFW metro. Also North Texas would be a much better travel partner for Rice. (Of course the initial play would be for SMU rather than North Texas, but I agree no one from the AAC is coming as the exit fee is too much of an obstacle.)

Also in a 14-member MWC the school that would move west is Boise State, not Utah State. Boise is located quite a bit west of Logan, and historically Boise State and Nevada have had a good rivalry.
09-14-2021 10:28 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 10:24 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:58 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:50 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:38 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:34 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  Counter thoughts: An MWC preemptive strike makes sense. Not sure on Rice/UTEP as the best options. In fact, I could see them make a play for SMU.

Sun Belt: even if they lose a school I don't think they go after NMSU. Nothing against NMSU. But I think they are going to try and tighten their geography, not grow it. So I'm thinking ODU/JMU and send Troy west. An East division of VA/UNC/Georgia is about as tight as you can get. I could also see USM/Marshall depending on what the AAC does.

I think if ODU and Marshall have a chance to join a conference where they will have divisional games against JMU, App, and Southern they are going to make the move. Troy and USM fit great in the SBC West.

All this is contingent on whether App and/or Marshall goes to the AAC. Also if Southern Miss prefers SBC West vs CUSA West

I should also clarify that I don't think the Sun Belt goes to 14. So it won't be all of Marshall/JMU/ODU/USM. If they don't lose any it's 2, if they lose one it's 3.

It depends. I think JMU/ODU/Marshall are pushing to go together and I imagine App State is pushing the SBC hard in their direction. The west will at minimum want Southern Miss or another Texas school to pair with Texas State. That’s why I think the Sun Belt will go to 14. Plus it helps with defections down the road if the AAC ever comes.

I think for a G5 to go 14 makes less sense than the P5 because of money. That being said those 4 to the SBC make alot more sense than some of the CUSA moves to get to 14.

But I do wonder if they did that if the "bloated" accusation from the CUSA would just shift to the Sun Belt.

Also, Frank the Tank's recent blog post reminds us realignmentologists that "s*** always rolls downhill" and when a lower level conference gets googly eyes at a higher level conference, then end up getting hammered. The idea is that the AAC really had no hope of poaching from the Big 12, but if the CUSA is still viewed as the higher level conference, then we should expect the Sun Belt to get poached and their options be the FCS call ups. But that might be old school thinking, which I guess is the question.

I agree that it does run downhill but the real question is CUSA or the Sun Belt the one at the bottom of the hill at this time.
09-14-2021 10:32 PM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 10:32 PM)ValleyBoy Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 10:24 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:58 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:50 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:38 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think if ODU and Marshall have a chance to join a conference where they will have divisional games against JMU, App, and Southern they are going to make the move. Troy and USM fit great in the SBC West.

All this is contingent on whether App and/or Marshall goes to the AAC. Also if Southern Miss prefers SBC West vs CUSA West

I should also clarify that I don't think the Sun Belt goes to 14. So it won't be all of Marshall/JMU/ODU/USM. If they don't lose any it's 2, if they lose one it's 3.

It depends. I think JMU/ODU/Marshall are pushing to go together and I imagine App State is pushing the SBC hard in their direction. The west will at minimum want Southern Miss or another Texas school to pair with Texas State. That’s why I think the Sun Belt will go to 14. Plus it helps with defections down the road if the AAC ever comes.

I think for a G5 to go 14 makes less sense than the P5 because of money. That being said those 4 to the SBC make alot more sense than some of the CUSA moves to get to 14.

But I do wonder if they did that if the "bloated" accusation from the CUSA would just shift to the Sun Belt.

Also, Frank the Tank's recent blog post reminds us realignmentologists that "s*** always rolls downhill" and when a lower level conference gets googly eyes at a higher level conference, then end up getting hammered. The idea is that the AAC really had no hope of poaching from the Big 12, but if the CUSA is still viewed as the higher level conference, then we should expect the Sun Belt to get poached and their options be the FCS call ups. But that might be old school thinking, which I guess is the question.

I agree that it does run downhill but the real question is CUSA or the Sun Belt the one at the bottom of the hill at this time.

Agreed. Will be interesting.
09-14-2021 10:36 PM
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The WEST is the BEST Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
UTEP and Rice to MWC. Puhleeze...

UTEP brings nothing to the table and they have repeatedly stated they want to be in a Texas-centric conference. And Rice incurring the travel costs for MWC? Rice can't deliver the Houston market. The combination of Rice and SMU would have value combined.
09-14-2021 10:43 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
I’m sticking with UAB, Rice, Marshall, and Old Dominion. Although, I’m more shaky about ODU than before. I like the potential of UMass and have to think they’re campaigning big time. Consider the prestige of being State U in an untapped market.

Think about this:

UConn - UMass
Cincy - Marshall
UCF - UAB
Houston - Rice

I still think UNT ends up in the MWC, probably with UTEP. I can’t imagine the UT system allowing UTSA to move into the MWC over UTEP—a school that such a move would help drastically.

This would put C-USA down 5 schools. They certainly could stay at 9, but I could see Georgia State having an interest in C-USA at this point. Possibly Texas State as well.

ODU
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09-14-2021 10:44 PM
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esayem Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 10:32 PM)ValleyBoy Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 10:24 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:58 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:50 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:38 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think if ODU and Marshall have a chance to join a conference where they will have divisional games against JMU, App, and Southern they are going to make the move. Troy and USM fit great in the SBC West.

All this is contingent on whether App and/or Marshall goes to the AAC. Also if Southern Miss prefers SBC West vs CUSA West

I should also clarify that I don't think the Sun Belt goes to 14. So it won't be all of Marshall/JMU/ODU/USM. If they don't lose any it's 2, if they lose one it's 3.

It depends. I think JMU/ODU/Marshall are pushing to go together and I imagine App State is pushing the SBC hard in their direction. The west will at minimum want Southern Miss or another Texas school to pair with Texas State. That’s why I think the Sun Belt will go to 14. Plus it helps with defections down the road if the AAC ever comes.

I think for a G5 to go 14 makes less sense than the P5 because of money. That being said those 4 to the SBC make alot more sense than some of the CUSA moves to get to 14.

But I do wonder if they did that if the "bloated" accusation from the CUSA would just shift to the Sun Belt.

Also, Frank the Tank's recent blog post reminds us realignmentologists that "s*** always rolls downhill" and when a lower level conference gets googly eyes at a higher level conference, then end up getting hammered. The idea is that the AAC really had no hope of poaching from the Big 12, but if the CUSA is still viewed as the higher level conference, then we should expect the Sun Belt to get poached and their options be the FCS call ups. But that might be old school thinking, which I guess is the question.

I agree that it does run downhill but the real question is CUSA or the Sun Belt the one at the bottom of the hill at this time.

It depends!

I can see Georgia State and Texas State liking some aspects of C-USA. I can see Marshall and maybe Southern Miss enjoying the Sun Belt.
09-14-2021 10:47 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?
09-14-2021 10:49 PM
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MinerInWisconsin Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 10:49 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?

I suppose the idea might be media related by getting the conference a foothold in Texas. I have no idea if it would be worth it to the MWC.
09-14-2021 10:57 PM
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chargeradio Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
It makes no sense for the Mountain West to expand at all, unless if they can completely kill off another G5 conference and greatly expand their haul of the CFP monies by making the G5 into a G4. Even then, it would probably make more sense to go to 16, especially since the SEC (among others) will likely push for total deregulation of the conference championship game.

Pod 1 - UTEP, SMU, Rice, UTSA
Pod 2 - UNM, CSU, AFA, Wyoming
Pod 3 - UNLV, BSU, USU, Nevada
Pod 4 - SDSU, SJSU, Hawaii, Fresno State

I don't see a way to feasibly kill off any of the other G5 conferences, aside from legislating a FBS conference needing at least 12 members. They have a total of 56 members between them right now, plus there are 5 independents who would be available.
09-14-2021 11:14 PM
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HawaiiMongoose Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
(09-14-2021 10:49 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I don't get the reasoning for the MW to expand with C-USA schools unless they have losses. Why go to 14? Can NT/Rice Really raise the media deal value? What am I missing?

That’s why my response said “if the MWC were to expand.” I don’t think adding CUSA members would do much for the conference. An expansion into Texas would be much more likely if SMU were interested in coming over, but I don’t think the move would make financial sense for SMU.

Now the basketball side is a different story. I could certainly see Gonzaga coming over to the MWC. It’s not a slam dunk but the Zags have to be thinking about it with BYU departing the WCC.
09-14-2021 11:30 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 14 edition)
If Boise State and Memphis goes to the Big 12? We do have some FCS schools that made noise recently on going FBS.
09-14-2021 11:48 PM
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