(09-08-2021 07:21 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 06:18 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The future Big 12 will be "de facto power" in football. That's likely all that will matter.

We folks can debate it all we want, but the general college football public and most media members likely will look very favorably about Big 12 football. The league likely will always have at least three teams (if not four) in the Top 25 at any given time.

As I've noted, the Big 12 in football will be perceived by most as "sufficiently power."

That will be true at first, but after a few years of 1 conference making $$20M per school and the other conferences making $50M a year, the gap in talent and performance will just keep growing.

Yeah, just look at what the University of Texas has been able to accomplish with all of its money.

They created the Power 5 term and hammered it home for years, even though it was BS. Now they are stuck with it. The NB12 is a top 5 conference, probably top 3 conference.

(09-09-2021 10:30 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 10:24 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  And then the Big 12 (notice something different):
UT: 1
KS: 1-2
WV: 1
OK: 2
FL: 4
TX: 3-6

50% of the schools in the new Big 12 are not in the top 2 brands in their state. The only really good brands in the conference are BYU, WVU, Kansas, and maybe Oklahoma State. On top of that, the three states where they have the #1 brand are small states.

You left out Iowa and Ohio. It changes your percentages and numbers. Are you striving for accuracy or just trying to confirm your opinion with inaccurate stats?

It was a mistake.

Being #2 in Ohio, A top 4 in FL and Texas is better than being #1 in many states.

Big 12 could go super big with:

Big 24

East : Temple, WVU, ECU, UAB, USF, UCF

South: SMU, TCU, Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech, Tulane

North: OK State, Kansas, Kansas state, Iowa State, Colorado state, Memphis

West: San Diego state, Fresno State, UNLV, Boise State, BYU, New Mexico

(09-09-2021 10:44 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Being #2 in Ohio, A top 4 in FL and Texas is better than being #1 in many states.

Astute point. Being number 1 in a state like um Connecticut isn't saying much especially when the most popular sport there is

(09-08-2021 06:16 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 06:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 06:02 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 05:52 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The Big East was technically a member of the club but really they were the tweener conference between the haves and have nots

The new B12 will be the same role

^^^^
This...but as the article said would rather be in that role than below the Mendoza Line

Well for sure, the NB12 will formally be a Power conference until the deals run out in 2025. That's guaranteed as all the contracts are signed. They won't lose the Sugar Bowl, won't lose their CFP money share, won't lose media value because of the GOR, etc.

That's how the Big East was able to stay AQ while USF and Cincy were in it from 2005-2012 - because all the contracts were signed. But when the contracts run out, or are up for re-up ...

I have a feeling the XII will have an autobid to a NY6 bowl without specificity similar to the old Big East during the BCS era. I could see the “Big 4” each having two NY6 autobids and the G5 still sharing 1 autobid.

Tie-ins -

Rose: B1G vs PAC
Sugar: SEC vs ACC
Orange: ACC vs B1G
Cotton: SEC vs At-Large
Fiesta: PAC vs At-Large
Peach: At-Large vs At-Large

* XII autobid
** G5 autobid

Autobids at the CFP/NY6 level will be a thing of the past when the new 12 school CFP is launched. The NY6 bowls will serve as the sites of the quarterfinals and semifinals.

The big fight will be over the split of CFP money. Today, the P5 receive equal distributions from the CFP of approximately $55 million/year, with additional payouts from contract bowls. Contract bowl money has been unequal, with the Orange Bowl providing a lower payout to the ACC than the Rose and Sugar provided to their participants, and the SEC and B1G receiving additional contract bowl money in years in which the participated in the Orange. There was additional money for appearances in the CFP and in at large bowls, but it was not a significant part of the total payout.

I expect the SEC in particular to push for higher payouts for at large participants in the CFP since it figures to receive more than other conferences. The B12, P12 and ACC seem likely push for greater emphasis on the size of guaranteed payout. The ACC can point to its success in the CFP to date, the P12 can point to the surrender of its incredibly valuable Rose Bowl tie in, and the B12 can argue "me too".

SEC vs the Field

The SEC reigns supreme over all of college football. Sure there are outliers here and there; Ohio State and Clemson can compete for CFP title. However, it's largely the SEC who gets the most CFP bids and dominates the Top 25 rankings.

The Power 5 is dead. College Football runs through SEC. The narrative will eventually change to SEC vs the Field.

PAC hasn't been a powerhouse in awhile
Big12 is trying to stay relevant
ACC is Clemson/FSU dependent
Big10 is Ohio State dependent

(09-09-2021 09:48 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 06:18 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The future Big 12 will be "de facto power" in football. That's likely all that will matter.

We folks can debate it all we want, but the general college football public and most media members likely will look very favorably about Big 12 football. The league likely will always have at least three teams (if not four) in the Top 25 at any given time.

As I've noted, the Big 12 in football will be perceived by most as "sufficiently power."

Before 1996, did the Big 8 and SWC regularly have 3-4 teams in Top 25? Now remove Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas from your list. Do they still regularly have 3-4 teams in Top 25?

I feel the future Big 12 will consistently have three to four teams in the Top 25. Admittedly, my pro-Cincy bias might be influencing my take on this.

(09-09-2021 10:33 AM)colohank Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 07:21 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 06:18 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The future Big 12 will be "de facto power" in football. That's likely all that will matter.

We folks can debate it all we want, but the general college football public and most media members likely will look very favorably about Big 12 football. The league likely will always have at least three teams (if not four) in the Top 25 at any given time.

As I've noted, the Big 12 in football will be perceived by most as "sufficiently power."

That will be true at first, but after a few years of 1 conference making $$20M per school and the other conferences making $50M a year, the gap in talent and performance will just keep growing.

Yeah, just look at what the University of Texas has been able to accomplish with all of its money.

https://thedirectorscup.com/2021/07/the-...the-crown/
"For just the second time in Learfield IMG College Directors’ Cup history, an institution other than Stanford University sits atop the standings at the end of a season, with the 2020-21 Cup heading to Austin for The University of Texas. The Longhorns took home three national championships – men’s swimming and diving and both women’s rowing and women’s tennis – and a runner-up finish in women’s volleyball. Texas took home the title with 1252 total points.

In the 28-year history of the Cup, Texas has finished second overall three times prior to its Cup win this year, including 19 top-10 finishes in the final standings. The Longhorns scored in all four mandatory sports – women’s volleyball and basketball and men’s basketball and baseball – and 13 out of the 15 additional sports...."

Note that BYU at #17 was the only non P5 in the top 50. All but 6 of the P5 were in the top 65 and all but 2 in the top 75.

(09-08-2021 05:52 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The Big East was technically a member of the club but really they were the tweener conference between the haves and have nots

The new B12 will be the same role

Pretty Much this...a tweener but above The Mendoza Line with decent access to the playoff.

Let's wait and see how the bowl games get restructured. I think the Big 12 will do surprisingly well. They might lose the Sugar Bowl or it could become shared. They should do well to keep many southern and Texas bowls though.

(09-09-2021 11:31 AM)Kyle Mack Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 10:44 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Being #2 in Ohio, A top 4 in FL and Texas is better than being #1 in many states.

Astute point. Being number 1 in a state like um Connecticut isn't saying much especially when the most popular sport there is

The women's basketball team has more fan interest than UConn Football.

(09-09-2021 11:29 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Big 12 could go super big with:

Big 24

East : Temple, WVU, ECU, UAB, USF, UCF

South: SMU, TCU, Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech, Tulane

North: OK State, Kansas, Kansas state, Iowa State, Colorado state, Memphis

West: San Diego state, Fresno State, UNLV, Boise State, BYU, New Mexico

Oh my! NFW

The TV dollars per team would get cut by 70%

(09-09-2021 12:51 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 05:52 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The Big East was technically a member of the club but really they were the tweener conference between the haves and have nots

The new B12 will be the same role

Pretty Much this...a tweener but above The Mendoza Line with decent access to the playoff.

Let's wait and see how the bowl games get restructured. I think the Big 12 will do surprisingly well. They might lose the Sugar Bowl or it could become shared. They should do well to keep many southern and Texas bowls though.

Just a hunch...gotta a feeling the media will treat the Big XII much better than the old BIG EAST.

(09-08-2021 11:48 PM)Jared7 Wrote:  The most interesting quote in the article was not excerpted in the OP - Kevin Warren saying that "the Power 5 is still the Power 5." Taken together with the quote from the ACC Commissioner at the Alliance press conference, it seems fairly clear that the Big 12 will indeed retain its power status.

The article itself says that 8 of the original members remain - this isn't correct as TCU and West Virginia were not original members. The article also seems to have ignored the recent revenue projections and makes no mention of current rankings or actual football results this season.

So, I think the disconnect is that "original" might not mean founding members of the Big 12 Conference, but those who were established as members of the conference when it was given the Autonomous Conference status.

(09-08-2021 04:20 PM)Maize Wrote:  From the Article

"I'm confident the Big 12 is going to retain Power Five status," said Chuck Neinas, the league's commissioner from 1971-80 who served it again in an interim role from 2011-12. "Will [Greg] Sankey say no?"

Neinas was being facetious suggesting the SEC commissioner owes the Big 12 an alignment favor. But he is not far off the mark. A reconstituted Big 12 would be the lowest-resourced Power Five conference. It would have fewer brands and major metro markets than any of the other four.

Better to be on the right side of the line that defines haves vs. have nots in college athletics. The retention of the Big 12 in the Power Five model would give it 69 major-conference schools with 61 so-called Group of Five schools below that line.

It would be the first time since at least the beginning of the College Football Playoff in 2014 where there was a majority of teams at the top level.

Because of that, the Big 12's future could be a simple case of kill or be killed. The SEC targeted the two schools that essentially made it a desirable conference to the networks. Now, the Big 12 faces raiding the lower-resourced American Athletic Conference to get bigger. There is little choice to keep the Big 12 in the Power Five.

"[Commissioner] Bob Bowlsby has enough clout to make it stay as it is," one Power Five athletic director said.

But why should the Big 12 be grandfathered into a Power Five designation? The answer to that tops the list of implications of the Big 12's expansion.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...structure/

Interesting take

(09-09-2021 02:14 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 07:21 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 06:18 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The future Big 12 will be "de facto power" in football. That's likely all that will matter.

We folks can debate it all we want, but the general college football public and most media members likely will look very favorably about Big 12 football. The league likely will always have at least three teams (if not four) in the Top 25 at any given time.

As I've noted, the Big 12 in football will be perceived by most as "sufficiently power."

That will be true at first, but after a few years of 1 conference making $$20M per school and the other conferences making $50M a year, the gap in talent and performance will just keep growing.

Oh please, money only makes so much of a difference. An FCS team just won at a ranked P5 again and nearly happened again when Iowa State nearly fell to UNI.

Maybe in perception, as has always been important in college football, the gap is growing but not in reality on the field.

And ISU's escape hardly hurt them at all in the polls.

(09-08-2021 05:20 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 05:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 05:15 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 05:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, there is just no way to categorically equate a conference with the "New Big 12" lineup of schools with the SEC's lineup of schools, or the B1G's.

The brand-value gap is just too vast. I mean, set TX and OU aside, place them in limbo in no conference, and the current SEC has like a Pacific ocean sized brand value gap with the L8/L12.

Well...ppl in the know and have contacts with those in power disagree...time will tell...

Just line up the brands and compare them.

I agree that strange things can happen, but this would be one of the stranger ones. The only reason the Big 12 was "power" in the CFP was because Texas and Oklahoma stayed in 2011. They are the "power" component of the league. I'm not sure anyone can really disagree with that?

The one thing ppl over looked was a Jim Phillips the ACC Commissioner called the Big XII a Power 5 Conference even after Texas and Oklahoma left and said they were very important...that quote was IMO somewhat eyebrow raising.

Now make no mistake...when it comes to revenue they will be lagging behind just about everyone...but still well after of the 5 lower leagues.

The ACC and P12 have to tread lightly here. The B12 arguably is as good or better than the P12, and outside of Clemson the ACC pretty much has sucked the last few years. The B12 will be seen as the least of these in the P5 mix, but power and money wise will be closer to Pac and ACC than the G5.

(09-08-2021 05:52 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The Big East was technically a member of the club but really they were the tweener conference between the haves and have nots

The new B12 will be the same role

I believe that the B12 has a very nice collection of good athletics departments with chip-on-the-shoulder attitudes. I'm sure they will be happy to settle the issue with the PAC and ACC on the field of play - and I like their chances.

(09-08-2021 07:21 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 06:18 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The future Big 12 will be "de facto power" in football. That's likely all that will matter.

We folks can debate it all we want, but the general college football public and most media members likely will look very favorably about Big 12 football. The league likely will always have at least three teams (if not four) in the Top 25 at any given time.

As I've noted, the Big 12 in football will be perceived by most as "sufficiently power."

That will be true at first, but after a few years of 1 conference making $$20M per school and the other conferences making $50M a year, the gap in talent and performance will just keep growing.

The only performance change at the conference level in the last 30 years is the rise of the SEC. That's it. No other conference has distanced itself with money, and I don't think money is the root of the improvement of the SEC.