(09-02-2021 04:04 PM)coogrfan Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:44 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:32 PM)coogrfan Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 02:33 PM)b2b Wrote:  I think the better question is "why would they?" The B12 is partially their property and by moving the top from the AAC they can lower the AAC contract significantly.

If ESPN is serious about saving money they'll "encourage" one or more of the P4 to grab enough schools to make the L8 no longer viable, and then fold the remainder into the AAC. I have to think that would save TWWL tens of millions annually.

For anyone who thinks this can't happen, just think back to what they did to the Big east.

But see that doesn’t save money it would cost money. At minimum the aac would be a 14 team conference, two bigger than what the new proposed big 12 would be. That’s two more teams you have to pay than a 12 team big 12. Then you factor in the raises they would have to give to those new teams in new conferences. The aac at minimum would want $15 million per team in a 14 team conference.

So ultimately you’re looking at a logistical nightmare along with a huge increase in costs. Its much easier to move 4 teams and massively cut the pay of the aac. It’s also cheaper to pay 12 teams $15 million vs. 14 plus the money you would spend on the teams in new conferences.


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

I can see your point, but you're assuming an AAC-L8 leftovers hybrid would get something like $15 million per school. I don't think that's realistic. Imo it's probable we would see little or no change per school that we're getting now (more $'s overall, but roughly the same per school). If I'm right, that means that ESPN would reduce the number of schools receiving "autonomous five" level payouts by at least four and maybe as many six. I have to think that would be extremely appealing to TWWL's bean counters.

Anyway, it's all just speculation at this point. We'll see.

I agree in that I think it will actually be closer to $10 million. But even that would be a nice raise for us and a shot at a better opportunity. All while still saving money.


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

(09-02-2021 04:04 PM)coogrfan Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:44 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:32 PM)coogrfan Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 02:33 PM)b2b Wrote:  I think the better question is "why would they?" The B12 is partially their property and by moving the top from the AAC they can lower the AAC contract significantly.

If ESPN is serious about saving money they'll "encourage" one or more of the P4 to grab enough schools to make the L8 no longer viable, and then fold the remainder into the AAC. I have to think that would save TWWL tens of millions annually.

For anyone who thinks this can't happen, just think back to what they did to the Big east.

But see that doesn’t save money it would cost money. At minimum the aac would be a 14 team conference, two bigger than what the new proposed big 12 would be. That’s two more teams you have to pay than a 12 team big 12. Then you factor in the raises they would have to give to those new teams in new conferences. The aac at minimum would want $15 million per team in a 14 team conference.

So ultimately you’re looking at a logistical nightmare along with a huge increase in costs. Its much easier to move 4 teams and massively cut the pay of the aac. It’s also cheaper to pay 12 teams $15 million vs. 14 plus the money you would spend on the teams in new conferences.


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

I can see your point, but you're assuming an AAC-L8 leftovers hybrid would get something like $15 million per school. I don't think that's realistic. Imo it's probable we would see little or no change per school from what we're getting now (more $'s overall, but roughly the same per school). If I'm right, that means that ESPN would reduce the number of schools receiving "autonomous five" level payouts by at least four and maybe as many six. I have to think that would be extremely appealing to TWWL's bean counters.

Anyway, it's all just speculation at this point. We'll see.

It’s not just TV $$.

How much more would Houston bring in from tickets, donations and ad sales in football and basketball by replacing Tulsa, ECU, Tulane and say Temple with Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State and Oklahoma State? How would it impact admissions applications? There are lots of factors to consider.

Would they… maybe.

If ESPN truly believes the L8 is going to go with Fox, then it might be worth it to help the AAC.

Honestly the best thing for our conference is for Bowlsby to continue his assault on ESPN.

ESPN may make it known they won’t bid, which will drive the L8s price into the ground.
Then it would only take a minimal increase for the AAC to match. Also… BYU is under contract with ESPN. They can’t go anywhere without their consent.

(09-02-2021 04:31 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Would they… maybe.

If ESPN truly believes the L8 is going to go with Fox, then it might be worth it to help the AAC.

Honestly the best thing for our conference is for Bowlsby to continue his assault on ESPN.

ESPN may make it known they won’t bid, which will drive the L8s price into the ground.
Then it would only take a minimal increase for the AAC to match. Also… BYU is under contract with ESPN. They can’t go anywhere without their consent.

I don’t know… I’m beginning to think Bowlsbys move was actually a stroke of genius. It put a huge spotlight on the big 12 expansion and killed almost all talk of the aac poaching the big 12.


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

(09-02-2021 04:39 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 04:31 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Would they… maybe.

If ESPN truly believes the L8 is going to go with Fox, then it might be worth it to help the AAC.

Honestly the best thing for our conference is for Bowlsby to continue his assault on ESPN.

ESPN may make it known they won’t bid, which will drive the L8s price into the ground.
Then it would only take a minimal increase for the AAC to match. Also… BYU is under contract with ESPN. They can’t go anywhere without their consent.

I don’t know… I’m beginning to think Bowlsbys move was actually a stroke of genius. It put a huge spotlight on the big 12 expansion and killed almost all talk of the aac poaching the big 12.


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

He isn’t that smart lol.

This concept might work but for there being 8 B12 dorks standing there that have nowhere to go.

Given that no one wants them, they gotta do something.

(09-02-2021 04:41 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 04:39 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 04:31 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Would they… maybe.

If ESPN truly believes the L8 is going to go with Fox, then it might be worth it to help the AAC.

Honestly the best thing for our conference is for Bowlsby to continue his assault on ESPN.

ESPN may make it known they won’t bid, which will drive the L8s price into the ground.
Then it would only take a minimal increase for the AAC to match. Also… BYU is under contract with ESPN. They can’t go anywhere without their consent.

I don’t know… I’m beginning to think Bowlsbys move was actually a stroke of genius. It put a huge spotlight on the big 12 expansion and killed almost all talk of the aac poaching the big 12.


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

He isn’t that smart lol.

Oh I agree it wasn’t intentional lol! But what’s the old saying? A broken clock is right once in a while?


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

(09-02-2021 04:02 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:58 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:56 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:40 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:37 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  IF ... and that is a major if because I'm not as optimistic as everyone else. But if UCF, Cincy, and Houston leave, ESPN is going to negotiate way down to pennies on the dollar. I'd be surprised if it was still 7 figures per team. You are talking about removing arguably the top of the league and even replacing them is still damaging 20+ inventory matchups a year in football because none of the replacements are going to be close to the draw of those 3.

Man I swear some of you guys that think you are leaving seem to be hoping the AAC implodes. Get a grip the MWC makes 4 million a year per team. The AAC is not going to drop from 7 million to under a million just because they lost three teams. Those that might leave are NOT UT/ OU stop acting like it.

I could definitely see it’s slip down beneath the MWC $$. That savings would put about $300 million in the Mouse’s pocket over the remainder of this decade long deal.

So tell me if ESPN wanted to save money why would they pay double for BYU, UC, UCF and UH when they currently have them under contract?

They wouldn't pay double. They would pay half of double, Fox would pay the other half. And they would save way more than that paying AAC a lower fee over the rest of their contract.

You are making the assumption that both FOX and ESPN would continue the deal.

Who and how many they add will be determined by their tv rights. As I said I find it hard to see ESPN agreeing to pay double for those four additions than they already are paying for. Remember that current contract ends in 2024.

Time will tell.

(09-02-2021 04:45 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  Who and how many they add will be determined by their tv rights. As I said I find it hard to see ESPN agreeing to pay double for those four additions than they already are paying for. Remember that current contract ends in 2024.

Time will tell.

Fox will overplay for the contract just like they did with Big East basketball..

(09-02-2021 04:45 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  Who and how many they add will be determined by their tv rights. As I said I find it hard to see ESPN agreeing to pay double for those four additions than they already are paying for. Remember that current contract ends in 2024.

Time will tell.

Fox will overplay for the contract just like they did with Big East basketball..

I'm in tears

(09-02-2021 06:44 PM)billards06 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 04:45 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  Who and how many they add will be determined by their tv rights. As I said I find it hard to see ESPN agreeing to pay double for those four additions than they already are paying for. Remember that current contract ends in 2024.

Time will tell.

Fox will overplay for the contract just like they did with Big East basketball..

fox is nowhere to be seen. im convinced they have given up and count it as a loss.
i mean not even a whimper. the league can still stay in tact but im not sure. i dont want to be in a league with Bowlsby in charge. i much rather stay in the AAC with my fellow rejects and have us add the L8 instead if my team were to get poached.

(09-02-2021 06:58 PM)Agust Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 06:44 PM)billards06 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 04:45 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  Who and how many they add will be determined by their tv rights. As I said I find it hard to see ESPN agreeing to pay double for those four additions than they already are paying for. Remember that current contract ends in 2024.

Time will tell.

Fox will overplay for the contract just like they did with Big East basketball..

fox is nowhere to be seen. im convinced they have given up and count it as a loss.
i mean not even a whimper. the league can still stay in tact but im not sure. i dont want to be in a league with Bowlsby in charge. i much rather stay in the AAC with my fellow rejects and have us add the L8 instead if my team were to get poached.

I believe bowlsby is actually supposed to be retiring soon. So the big 12 may poach aresco lol!


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

1st, whoever said AAC tv deal deal drops below $1M is on crack, only way that happens is if at least 3 more leave.

There is a risk of $ falling slightly below MWC if AAC does nothing or adds tiny markets in SE like App ST / Coastal Car (sorry recent success doesn’t factor in tv $ & conference realignment as much as it should).

A conservative move of adding larger SE markets like ATL, Miami/FTL, & Birmingham keeps it at least on par with MWC $. Those 3 markets actually have the same combined viewers as markets leaving, but I think it’s fair to say those leaving while not dominate team in their markets either do have a higher share of their market, thus the decline from current AAC $.

Adding from MWC gets harder if all 3 rumored schools leave , but there are some combination scenarios where you could keep the # closer to $7M, but yes expenses go up so profit goes down from today, but probably still more profitable than alternative & more than MWC get today.

Still remains to be seen if L8 actually adds all 4 teams, that report could very well simply be the 1st cut line. Add 2 of those teams back to AAC you can at least keep the $7M & probably grow it some with adding from MWC.

(09-02-2021 03:47 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:44 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:32 PM)coogrfan Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 02:33 PM)b2b Wrote:  I think the better question is "why would they?" The B12 is partially their property and by moving the top from the AAC they can lower the AAC contract significantly.

If ESPN is serious about saving money they'll "encourage" one or more of the P4 to grab enough schools to make the L8 no longer viable, and then fold the remainder into the AAC. I have to think that would save TWWL tens of millions annually.

For anyone who thinks this can't happen, just think back to what they did to the Big east.

But see that doesn’t save money it would cost money. At minimum the aac would be a 14 team conference, two bigger than what the new proposed big 12 would be. That’s two more teams you have to pay than a 12 team big 12. Then you factor in the raises they would have to give to those new teams in new conferences. The aac at minimum would want $15 million per team in a 14 team conference.

So ultimately you’re looking at a logistical nightmare along with a hug increase in costs. Its much easier to move 4 teams and massively cut the pay of the aac. It’s also cheaper to pay 12 teams $15 million vs. 14 plus the money you would spend on the teams in new conferences.


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

Under same assumption why pay for 12 when you can pay for 10 and keep the other two at AAC pay?
Why would ESPN pay double for three AAC teams plus BYU who they are currently getting at half price?
This why I say no more than 10 in B12

No one knows what the B12 will be paid when they become the L8. I’ve seen $15M, or 50% of their current deal. BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston make half that. So ESPN pays $32M a year for the difference. ($8M x 4)
To make up for that, would ESPN diminish the American contract by that much? Currently it is $77M per year, cut $32M to get to $45M. American adds 2 teams to get to 10, thats $4.5M each.
But these are assumptions. Truth is as stated at the top is no one knows what the L8 revised contract will be. Also does the L8 offer full shares immediately? B10 paid Rutgers and MD much less than the other teams when they joined. Do the departed Americans get the entry level offer? And, who is paying for any of this? If ESPN low balls the L8, what recourse do they have?

(09-02-2021 04:02 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:58 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:56 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:40 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:37 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  IF ... and that is a major if because I'm not as optimistic as everyone else. But if UCF, Cincy, and Houston leave, ESPN is going to negotiate way down to pennies on the dollar. I'd be surprised if it was still 7 figures per team. You are talking about removing arguably the top of the league and even replacing them is still damaging 20+ inventory matchups a year in football because none of the replacements are going to be close to the draw of those 3.

Man I swear some of you guys that think you are leaving seem to be hoping the AAC implodes. Get a grip the MWC makes 4 million a year per team. The AAC is not going to drop from 7 million to under a million just because they lost three teams. Those that might leave are NOT UT/ OU stop acting like it.

I could definitely see it’s slip down beneath the MWC $$. That savings would put about $300 million in the Mouse’s pocket over the remainder of this decade long deal.

So tell me if ESPN wanted to save money why would they pay double for BYU, UC, UCF and UH when they currently have them under contract?

Why would they pay the aac more to add big 12 teams?


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

All of the savings for ESPN are in destroying the big12 and saving upwards of 1.5 billion dollars over the next four seasons. Then they'd have to negotiate another billion or so dollar contract with a conference with no more market penetraition than the present day AAC that they are only paying a billion dollars altogether over the next 10 years. If you cut the entire AAC contract down to one dollar for the next 10years, they still aren't saving nothing compared to what they'd save by destroying the big12. Even if they decided to pay the AAC 18m per team they would be saving 100's of millions by eliminating the big12 contract and folding some of them into the AAC. Not to mention getting Texas and Oklahoma into the SEC asap. On top of that ESPN would have another conference worth of teams to help support the 12 team playoff proposal along with the SEC.

(09-02-2021 10:38 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 04:02 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:58 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:56 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 03:40 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  Man I swear some of you guys that think you are leaving seem to be hoping the AAC implodes. Get a grip the MWC makes 4 million a year per team. The AAC is not going to drop from 7 million to under a million just because they lost three teams. Those that might leave are NOT UT/ OU stop acting like it.

I could definitely see it’s slip down beneath the MWC $$. That savings would put about $300 million in the Mouse’s pocket over the remainder of this decade long deal.

So tell me if ESPN wanted to save money why would they pay double for BYU, UC, UCF and UH when they currently have them under contract?

Why would they pay the aac more to add big 12 teams?


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

All of the savings for ESPN are in destroying the big12 and saving upwards of 1.5 billion dollars over the next four seasons. Then they'd have to negotiate another billion or so dollar contract with a conference with no more market penetraition than the present day AAC that they are only paying a billion dollars altogether over the next 10 years. If you cut the entire AAC contract down to one dollar for the next 10years, they still aren't saving nothing compared to what they'd save by destroying the big12. Even if they decided to pay the AAC 18m per team they would be saving 100's of millions by eliminating the big12 contract and folding some of them into the AAC. Not to mention getting Texas and Oklahoma into the SEC asap. On top of that ESPN would have another conference worth of teams to help support the 12 team playoff proposal along with the SEC.

See it’s not about saving over the next 4 seasons it’s about saving for the next 10 - 15. This isn’t a valuable argument when put in that context.

Also other than the top 4 teams the aac overall is a pretty terrible conference. ESPN doesn’t want to be in a situation where it is paying tulane and tulsa more than 7 mil. It’s much better to move the top 4 and have a stronger conference and let the remaining weak teams rot.

Wether anyone likes it or not the big 12’s worst team is better than the aac’s worst team and it’s not even close.


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

(09-02-2021 03:32 PM)coogrfan Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 02:33 PM)b2b Wrote:  I think the better question is "why would they?" The B12 is partially their property and by moving the top from the AAC they can lower the AAC contract significantly.

If ESPN is serious about saving money they'll "encourage" one or more of the P4 to grab enough schools to make the L8 no longer viable, and then fold the remainder into the AAC. I have to think that would save TWWL tens of millions annually.

For anyone who thinks this can't happen, just think back to what they did to the Big East.

How does moving 14 million dollar a year teams into a league were they get paid 30, 40, 50, or even 67 million a team for years and years to come save ESPN money? Its cheaper to just pay those Big12 leftovers 14 million a year in the Big12 and cut the AAC deal down a bit. The Big12 used to cost 250 million a year and would cost probably 400 million a if UT/OU were still there. Paying the Big12 140 million a year IS saving a ton of money.

ESPN will need to shred cash from big12 + AAC to pay for the big increase the SEC is gonna get.