B12 expansion committee is already meeting. Looks like the L8's first priority is BYU. Then the question becomes do they add just two schools or go straight to four. I'm seeing a persuasive argument that they slow roll it. This lets the leftovers get their share of the exit fees from UT/OU as well as a share of the incoming entrance fees. It feels inevitable that some of the L8 leave, but they'll be better off to calm the waters so they don't have to deal from desperation. Instead, collect the incoming fees and use their share of them to pay for their own exit fee with someone else's money. That would also start the clock on whoever they take from the AAC's exit.
The B12 is going to drop a bit in power and prestige but it remains an autonomy conference, and even if their contract takes a hit they should realistically still be pulling down more than the AAC. If Cincy/UCF/whoever is offered 5-7 million more a year, they're 99% going to jump. They are positioning themselves to be the clear #5 conference. I find the idea persuasive that some of them leave over time on the best terms they can work out and leave a core of three or four who are stuck in the B12 while others go B1G or PAC. The core continues to add replacements and collect both exit and entrance fees. That's the payoff for the left-behinds.
So my take is that they go for BYU and either one or three more, almost certainly from the AAC. The only question is the timing.
https://dknation.draftkings.com/2021/8/2...is-houston
"The television numbers suggest that the subgroup should look west. Given the grave concern about lost revenue with the departures of Oklahoma and Texas that could potentially cost schools $10 million to $15 million a year in media rights revenue, it might be best to stay small and nimble. And it probably would be best to only add schools that would enter near the top half of the league in budget and TV drawing power. BYU could be a potential solution.
Between 2015 and ‘19, the median audience Big 12 teams (minus games involving Texas and Oklahoma) drew for 36 games broadcast on ABC, Fox or ESPN was 1.786 million viewers. BYU’s numbers were comparable; the Cougars’ median audience in 16 games broadcast on those channels was 1.64 million. For 104 games broadcast on ESPN2, ESPNU, Fox Sports 1 or Fox Sports 2, the remaining Big 12 schools drew a median audience of 482,000. BYU* drew a median audience of 682,000 from 20 broadcasts on those networks."
(Note that the interested can compare those numbers to those of their own school as a measure of viability/attractiveness as a candidate)
https://cyclonefanatic.com/2021/08/isus-...committee/
“The people who didn’t want BYU before are leaving the conference,” an unnamed Big 12 source told The Athletic.
