(08-31-2021 01:59 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 01:02 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  I think that their current view is that they would like to get UT/OU out a year early so that the timing coincides with the onset of the expected new ESPN SEC deal. That way they can commence making oodles of big bucks from advertisers as soon as possible. ...

Oh, I agree with that, which is part of why the hypothetical WAS hypothetical.

Quote: So now, they want the Big 12 to expand one year early. They aren't all that interested in strengthening the Big 12 because they still want to pay way less in the future but they might be willing to pay the full amount (as they have contracted to do) for just one year as long as the contract goes way down a year later.

Note that, IIRC, they paid out the Big East contract for the year after a number of the schools they had been paying for were gone.

Quote: To me, it seems unlikely that they will be willing to give assurances of future deals. Fox might; but not ESPN.

That assurances regarding future deals was part of the hypothetical ... assurances of future deals from ESPN are not really credible enough to bother offering them if ESPN is at the same time pushing for OK/TX to leave even one year early

Quote: Nor does it seem to me that they are going to be willing to help UT and OU with a GOR component (even if just for one year). And UT isn't going to want to give up the LHN early either - which is where some of that money would presumably come from.

But they get the SEC distribution a year earlier, and as it stands, their Big12 distribution is forfeit from the start of this athletic year.

Quote: If it's just one year early, it would have to be wrapped up by March of next year (for AAC purposes). That's pretty quick timing.

If they invite BYU and they have at least two AAC schools wanting to move, at least one of them will be willing to move early if it means the invite being locked down rather than waiting for March 2023 to see if it arrives. It's not like the AAC can hold onto a school determined to leave early ... they can just claim an exorbitant exit fee, and see if it holds up in a Texas, Tennessee or Ohio court.

Quote: And settlement discussions have yet to start. And almost certainly seem likely to break down at least once given the big amounts which would still be necessary to break a GOR. ESPN might get to your hypothesized position eventually, but I don't think they're there yet.

I think the deadline is more like July 1 next year, and talks may well not begin in earnest until after the football regular season.

Well, I laid out on the other thread why I'm not sure talks will ever succeed even for just a 1 year early exit. So I think your hypothetical remains possible; even potentially likely. But talks would have to commence and then break down for ESPN and UT to move off their current position and begin to accept that. So assuming that, I agree that the deadline is next year some time for a 1-year early exit and I also agree that UT and ESPN don't really care about the AAC's bylaws or notice provision. And the AAC doesn't have a GOR, so that's not a concern either. So it well could be next summer. And BYU's flexibility is just one more factor as to why the Cougars are the top candidate. And I think there is at least AAC school that might be willing to absorb a higher exit fee to join a much higher paying conference from which they would be able to recoup losses relatively quickly.

In any event, the situation remains so uncertain that the likelihood of quick Big 12 expansion is virtually nil. Right now, it's just contingency planning depending on what UT, OU and ESPN do.

(08-31-2021 11:14 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 01:59 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 01:02 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  I think that their current view is that they would like to get UT/OU out a year early so that the timing coincides with the onset of the expected new ESPN SEC deal. That way they can commence making oodles of big bucks from advertisers as soon as possible. ...

Oh, I agree with that, which is part of why the hypothetical WAS hypothetical.

Quote: So now, they want the Big 12 to expand one year early. They aren't all that interested in strengthening the Big 12 because they still want to pay way less in the future but they might be willing to pay the full amount (as they have contracted to do) for just one year as long as the contract goes way down a year later.

Note that, IIRC, they paid out the Big East contract for the year after a number of the schools they had been paying for were gone.

Quote: To me, it seems unlikely that they will be willing to give assurances of future deals. Fox might; but not ESPN.

That assurances regarding future deals was part of the hypothetical ... assurances of future deals from ESPN are not really credible enough to bother offering them if ESPN is at the same time pushing for OK/TX to leave even one year early

Quote: Nor does it seem to me that they are going to be willing to help UT and OU with a GOR component (even if just for one year). And UT isn't going to want to give up the LHN early either - which is where some of that money would presumably come from.

But they get the SEC distribution a year earlier, and as it stands, their Big12 distribution is forfeit from the start of this athletic year.

Quote: If it's just one year early, it would have to be wrapped up by March of next year (for AAC purposes). That's pretty quick timing.

If they invite BYU and they have at least two AAC schools wanting to move, at least one of them will be willing to move early if it means the invite being locked down rather than waiting for March 2023 to see if it arrives. It's not like the AAC can hold onto a school determined to leave early ... they can just claim an exorbitant exit fee, and see if it holds up in a Texas, Tennessee or Ohio court.

Quote: And settlement discussions have yet to start. And almost certainly seem likely to break down at least once given the big amounts which would still be necessary to break a GOR. ESPN might get to your hypothesized position eventually, but I don't think they're there yet.

I think the deadline is more like July 1 next year, and talks may well not begin in earnest until after the football regular season.

Well, I laid out on the other thread why I'm not sure talks will ever succeed even for just a 1 year early exit. So I think your hypothetical remains possible; even potentially likely. But talks would have to commence and then break down for ESPN and UT to move off their current position and begin to accept that. So assuming that, I agree that the deadline is next year some time for a 1-year early exit and I also agree that UT and ESPN don't really care about the AAC's bylaws or notice provision. And the AAC doesn't have a GOR, so that's not a concern either. So it well could be next summer. And BYU's flexibility is just one more factor as to why the Cougars are the top candidate. And I think there is at least AAC school that might be willing to absorb a higher exit fee to join a much higher paying conference from which they would be able to recoup losses relatively quickly.

In any event, the situation remains so uncertain that the likelihood of quick Big 12 expansion is virtually nil. Right now, it's just contingency planning depending on what UT, OU and ESPN do.

I think part of the reason we all tend to think that UT/OU will exit early is it fits the pattern of what we have seen before. Many assume UT/OU will play 2021 as their final year in the B12 and be in the SEC by 2022. But we have never seen movement where teams were encumbered by a GOR. Given the amount of money required for an early exit---and the tremendous financial disincentive for the left behind Big12 teams to negotiate any reduction in the early exit barriers/fees, this exit may be entirely different from what we have generally seen in prior realignment moves. It very possible the awkward and uncomfortable B-12 farewell tour for OU/UT could drag on for 4 full years.

(08-31-2021 11:35 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 11:14 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 01:59 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 01:02 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  I think that their current view is that they would like to get UT/OU out a year early so that the timing coincides with the onset of the expected new ESPN SEC deal. That way they can commence making oodles of big bucks from advertisers as soon as possible. ...

Oh, I agree with that, which is part of why the hypothetical WAS hypothetical.

Quote: So now, they want the Big 12 to expand one year early. They aren't all that interested in strengthening the Big 12 because they still want to pay way less in the future but they might be willing to pay the full amount (as they have contracted to do) for just one year as long as the contract goes way down a year later.

Note that, IIRC, they paid out the Big East contract for the year after a number of the schools they had been paying for were gone.

Quote: To me, it seems unlikely that they will be willing to give assurances of future deals. Fox might; but not ESPN.

That assurances regarding future deals was part of the hypothetical ... assurances of future deals from ESPN are not really credible enough to bother offering them if ESPN is at the same time pushing for OK/TX to leave even one year early

Quote: Nor does it seem to me that they are going to be willing to help UT and OU with a GOR component (even if just for one year). And UT isn't going to want to give up the LHN early either - which is where some of that money would presumably come from.

But they get the SEC distribution a year earlier, and as it stands, their Big12 distribution is forfeit from the start of this athletic year.

Quote: If it's just one year early, it would have to be wrapped up by March of next year (for AAC purposes). That's pretty quick timing.

If they invite BYU and they have at least two AAC schools wanting to move, at least one of them will be willing to move early if it means the invite being locked down rather than waiting for March 2023 to see if it arrives. It's not like the AAC can hold onto a school determined to leave early ... they can just claim an exorbitant exit fee, and see if it holds up in a Texas, Tennessee or Ohio court.

Quote: And settlement discussions have yet to start. And almost certainly seem likely to break down at least once given the big amounts which would still be necessary to break a GOR. ESPN might get to your hypothesized position eventually, but I don't think they're there yet.

I think the deadline is more like July 1 next year, and talks may well not begin in earnest until after the football regular season.

Well, I laid out on the other thread why I'm not sure talks will ever succeed even for just a 1 year early exit. So I think your hypothetical remains possible; even potentially likely. But talks would have to commence and then break down for ESPN and UT to move off their current position and begin to accept that. So assuming that, I agree that the deadline is next year some time for a 1-year early exit and I also agree that UT and ESPN don't really care about the AAC's bylaws or notice provision. And the AAC doesn't have a GOR, so that's not a concern either. So it well could be next summer. And BYU's flexibility is just one more factor as to why the Cougars are the top candidate. And I think there is at least AAC school that might be willing to absorb a higher exit fee to join a much higher paying conference from which they would be able to recoup losses relatively quickly.

In any event, the situation remains so uncertain that the likelihood of quick Big 12 expansion is virtually nil. Right now, it's just contingency planning depending on what UT, OU and ESPN do.

I think part of the reason we all tend to think that UT/OU will exit early is it fits the pattern of what we have seen before. Many assume UT/OU will play 2021 as their final year in the B12 and be in the SEC by 2022. But we have never seen movement where teams were encumbered by a GOR. Given the amount of money required for an early exit---and the tremendous financial disincentive for the left behind Big12 teams to negotiate any reduction in the early exit barriers/fees, this exit may be entirely different from what we have generally seen in prior realignment moves. It very possible the awkward and uncomfortable B-12 farewell tour for OU/UT could drag on for 4 full years.

Those are valid points. On the other hand, OU & UT has said we need to go to the SEC for recruiting and NIL, so its really hard to see them wanting to have their program in limbo for 2-3 years. It seems like that would hurt recruiting the next couple of years.

Besides, the Longhorns can't wait to get to the SEC to start adding another couple of losses annually to their record.

I think it will be interesting to see the responses if both of these programs struggle in the SEC. Obviously, Texas is more likely to struggle than OU in the beginning. If these two fan bases start bragging about tv revenues due to average to poor records, we know the sport is broken.

(08-31-2021 11:35 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 11:14 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 01:59 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 01:02 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  I think that their current view is that they would like to get UT/OU out a year early so that the timing coincides with the onset of the expected new ESPN SEC deal. That way they can commence making oodles of big bucks from advertisers as soon as possible. ...

Oh, I agree with that, which is part of why the hypothetical WAS hypothetical.

Quote: So now, they want the Big 12 to expand one year early. They aren't all that interested in strengthening the Big 12 because they still want to pay way less in the future but they might be willing to pay the full amount (as they have contracted to do) for just one year as long as the contract goes way down a year later.

Note that, IIRC, they paid out the Big East contract for the year after a number of the schools they had been paying for were gone.

Quote: To me, it seems unlikely that they will be willing to give assurances of future deals. Fox might; but not ESPN.

That assurances regarding future deals was part of the hypothetical ... assurances of future deals from ESPN are not really credible enough to bother offering them if ESPN is at the same time pushing for OK/TX to leave even one year early

Quote: Nor does it seem to me that they are going to be willing to help UT and OU with a GOR component (even if just for one year). And UT isn't going to want to give up the LHN early either - which is where some of that money would presumably come from.

But they get the SEC distribution a year earlier, and as it stands, their Big12 distribution is forfeit from the start of this athletic year.

Quote: If it's just one year early, it would have to be wrapped up by March of next year (for AAC purposes). That's pretty quick timing.

If they invite BYU and they have at least two AAC schools wanting to move, at least one of them will be willing to move early if it means the invite being locked down rather than waiting for March 2023 to see if it arrives. It's not like the AAC can hold onto a school determined to leave early ... they can just claim an exorbitant exit fee, and see if it holds up in a Texas, Tennessee or Ohio court.

Quote: And settlement discussions have yet to start. And almost certainly seem likely to break down at least once given the big amounts which would still be necessary to break a GOR. ESPN might get to your hypothesized position eventually, but I don't think they're there yet.

I think the deadline is more like July 1 next year, and talks may well not begin in earnest until after the football regular season.

Well, I laid out on the other thread why I'm not sure talks will ever succeed even for just a 1 year early exit. So I think your hypothetical remains possible; even potentially likely. But talks would have to commence and then break down for ESPN and UT to move off their current position and begin to accept that. So assuming that, I agree that the deadline is next year some time for a 1-year early exit and I also agree that UT and ESPN don't really care about the AAC's bylaws or notice provision. And the AAC doesn't have a GOR, so that's not a concern either. So it well could be next summer. And BYU's flexibility is just one more factor as to why the Cougars are the top candidate. And I think there is at least AAC school that might be willing to absorb a higher exit fee to join a much higher paying conference from which they would be able to recoup losses relatively quickly.

In any event, the situation remains so uncertain that the likelihood of quick Big 12 expansion is virtually nil. Right now, it's just contingency planning depending on what UT, OU and ESPN do.

I think part of the reason we all tend to think that UT/OU will exit early is it fits the pattern of what we have seen before. Many assume UT/OU will play 2021 as their final year in the B12 and be in the SEC by 2022. But we have never seen movement where teams were encumbered by a GOR. Given the amount of money required for an early exit---and the tremendous financial disincentive for the left behind Big12 teams to negotiate any reduction in the early exit barriers/fees, this exit may be entirely different from what we have generally seen in prior realignment moves. It very possible the awkward and uncomfortable B-12 farewell tour for OU/UT could drag on for 4 full years.

I don't think it would have come out if they didn't believe they could get out before 4 years.

But if ESPN/Fox are really going to give the Big 12 a $14 million per year reduction (Bowlsby's estimate), that is a LOT of money. 8X14 is $112 million a year. They would need that to make them whole for ending the contract.

Another thing promoting a delay is that the CBS/SEC contract still has 3 more years-2021, 2022, 2023. That is a contract that would bump in value with UT and OU.

Maybe there is a plan to keep the Big 12 contract intact while UT and OU move on to the SEC. Then there are no damages. But that would require ESPN to pony up. Maybe they make enough extra on the SEC contract to do that for the 2 to 3 years until the end of the Big 12 contract.