(08-27-2021 01:17 PM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  I think question one is whether Big XII administrators are willing not only to overlook their own cultural objections to BYU, but also whether they are willing to put up with the campus protests that will follow, even on “conservative” campuses. If so, BYU is a logical addition.

IF BYU comes in, that opens up the possibility for CSU. I still think they’re a long shot, but I definitely think BYU would be a prerequisite.

Houston still makes a lot of sense to me. Having games IN the top two TX markets is important. Are they UT or aTm? No - but at least they’d actually be THERE.

Cincy and UCF are logical adds. Memphis also has strengths.

I agree with many that 12 is probably optimal, from the standpoint of value. The only question is which 12. As a fan I would be fine with more, if they’re the right choices.

Back in 2008-9 when Texas was doing really well and Houston had a couple good seasons, Texas ratings were off the scale in Houston. But Houston had good solid ratings, better than anyone else. The Houston paper used to do a regular report on TV ratings. And that was a CUSA Houston.

(08-27-2021 12:52 PM)Statefan Wrote:  I think the B12's best play is to become the B15

East - USF, UCF, WVa, Cincy, Tulane
Central - ISU, KSU, Kansas, TCU, Houston
West - BYU, CSU, TT, Ok State, Baylor

Setting aside the money issues - this brings the B15 to Orlando, Tampa, New Orleans, Dallas, Houston, KC, Ok City, Denver, and Salt Lake City. Their geography makes them attractive to OOC games with the ACC and P12. The rise in ticket prices and donations and the accompany gentrification of college football means that the venues need to be in decent places in order to encourage visitors. No one really wants to go to Bloomington, West Layfette, Charlottesville, Syracuse, Iowa City, etc., etc. Even a trip to Tuscaloosa or State College is great for single experience but they are not New Orleans, Tampa/St. Pete, Dallas, etc. Speaking in regards to the wife and my sister in law, if the road trip is not "Bowl Quality" and the weather is intolerable, they ain't going.

This isn't about travel plans for a few fans its about getting paid on tv from the networks.

(08-27-2021 06:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 01:17 PM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  I think question one is whether Big XII administrators are willing not only to overlook their own cultural objections to BYU, but also whether they are willing to put up with the campus protests that will follow, even on “conservative” campuses. If so, BYU is a logical addition.

IF BYU comes in, that opens up the possibility for CSU. I still think they’re a long shot, but I definitely think BYU would be a prerequisite.

Houston still makes a lot of sense to me. Having games IN the top two TX markets is important. Are they UT or aTm? No - but at least they’d actually be THERE.

Cincy and UCF are logical adds. Memphis also has strengths.

I agree with many that 12 is probably optimal, from the standpoint of value. The only question is which 12. As a fan I would be fine with more, if they’re the right choices.

Back in 2008-9 when Texas was doing really well and Houston had a couple good seasons, Texas ratings were off the scale in Houston. But Houston had good solid ratings, better than anyone else. The Houston paper used to do a regular report on TV ratings. And that was a CUSA Houston.

Exactly. UT is a huge brand and will almost always do well, particularly when they have good on-field performance. But that doesn’t mean that it precludes others from doing well, too.

There’s no doubt that those at the top of the pecking order think highly of themselves, and want to get the lion’s share of exposure and profits. But that doesn’t mean that they hold animosity towards other schools, or think that they’re “worthless” or “they suck”. That’s more fan and message board fodder. Many of those administrators have friends and family who aren’t in “the club”. They also recognize from a non-altruistic perspective that you can only push those “lesser brands” so far - otherwise there is the potential for political strife, and they don’t want to anger entire swaths of the country to the point that they’d finally switch channels and make college sports as a whole less profitable to national advertisers.

Some numbers for 13 schools-full time undergrads, 4 yr average football attendance, 2019 attendance for football and basketball, athletic revenues and #athletes
Full time Attendance Basketball Athletic 2018-9
undergrads 2016-2019 2019 attendance 2019 Revenues (000) Athletes
BYU 28,288 56,715 59,547 11,958 72,623 748
Memphis 12,032 35,661 38,816 14,065 55,494 545
Cincinnati 23,577 32,131 35,985 11,256 53,556 542
Houston 28,038 31,723 25,518 6,052 68,286 610
UCF 42,184 40,114 43,788 4,724 68,360 497
Uconn 18,151 21,568 18,216 8,652 79,101 777
USF 25,150 34,820 31,823 3,365 55,104 511
Air Force 4,304 28,382 27,084 2,296 NA NA
Col. St. 21,930 28,126 23,338 2,859 56,081 415
Tulane 7,260 19,486 20,271 1,457 37,101 427
SMU 6,516 21,668 23,633 5,770 70,501 497
Rice 3,931 20,791 22,212 1,818 41,870 461
Boise 13,035 32,070 32,634 5,041 42,343 456

Academic rankings

ARWU 2021 USNWR
Rice 101-150 16
Cincinnati 201-300 143
Colorado St. 201-300 153
Houston 201-300 176
Uconn 201-300 63
USF 201-300 103
UCF 301-400 160
BYU 401-500 80
SMU 601-700 66
Tulane 601-700 41
Boise 801-900 298-389
Memphis 901-1000 258
Air Force NR NLA 28


Texas 41 42
Kansas 201-300 124
Iowa St. 301-400 118
Kansas St. 401-500 170
West Virginia 401-500 241
Oklahoma 501-600 133
Texas Tech 501-600 217
Baylor 601-700 76
Ok. State 601-700 187
TCU NR 80

Run a 5 year average on Basketball attendance to get a better picture, good years and poor years.

Remaining Eight Average = 11,222
// this is really pulled down by Baylor and TCU who average in the 6,000s (smaller private schools)

BYU = 13,598
Dayton = 13,055
Memphis = 11,650
Wichita State = 10,568
Cincinnati = 9,943
Temple = 6,228
SMU = 6,126
Boise State = 5,714
Houston = 4,850
UCF = 4,708
Tulsa = 4,372
ECU = 3,900
Colorado St = 3,502
South Florida = 3,074
Rice = 2,080
Tulane = 1,663

Boise and Memphis are clearly below the rest academically.
Boise, Tulane and Rice are clearly below the rest in revenues.
BYU, SMU, UConn, UCF and UH are above the rest in revenues.
Note that this revenue includes institutional support.
Boise, Tulane, Rice, Memphis and SMU are clearly the smallest.

Without TV ratings stats, these numbers would indicate that Boise, Tulane, Rice and Air Force are unlikely. UConn is unlikely for obvious reasons. BYU, Houston and UCF look strong. Cincinnati, USF, Colorado St. and SMU have good points. Memphis looks good only in fan support-basketball and football attendance.

to the remaining 8-average distance in miles
Average
distance
SMU 462
Memphis 594.4
Rice 594
Houston 660.5
Air Force 731
Cincinnati 783
Colorado St. 805
Tulane 807
BYU 1,183
UCF 1,233
USF 1,256
Uconn 1,456
Boise 1,530

(08-27-2021 06:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 01:11 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 01:05 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 12:58 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Agree, Cinci, BYU and UCF are locks.

They seem to have a problem - maybe some internal TX politics with Houston -

Likely next up would be Memphis

UT and TAMU want to keep Houston down. There are many reasons beyond sports.

It shouldn't matter to them anymore since neither one will be sharing a conference with Houston. But, whatever.

Also, I read somewhere that the Remaining VIII are still upset about UH Board of Regents Chairman Tillman Fertitta chewing them out over the dog and pony show that was "Big XII expansion". Remaining VII: It's not his fault your league made about a dozen schools (give or take a couple) jump through hoops and you still said "nah, we good, yo" after it was all said and done. Maybe you should take what Fertitta said to heart and not be a bunch of butthurt pansies.

Saw someone on a TCU board (who is treated as an insider) claim he knew who said that, but that the guy would get over it. Its still abount money.

I pray that's the case. Still, it's pretty petty for someone to hold a grudge against someone whose school wasted time and money to try to get into a P5 league only to be told that said league is not expanding and thanks for coming, especially if they didn't really have serious intentions of expanding.

(08-27-2021 08:28 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 06:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 01:11 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 01:05 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 12:58 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Agree, Cinci, BYU and UCF are locks.

They seem to have a problem - maybe some internal TX politics with Houston -

Likely next up would be Memphis

UT and TAMU want to keep Houston down. There are many reasons beyond sports.

It shouldn't matter to them anymore since neither one will be sharing a conference with Houston. But, whatever.

Also, I read somewhere that the Remaining VIII are still upset about UH Board of Regents Chairman Tillman Fertitta chewing them out over the dog and pony show that was "Big XII expansion". Remaining VII: It's not his fault your league made about a dozen schools (give or take a couple) jump through hoops and you still said "nah, we good, yo" after it was all said and done. Maybe you should take what Fertitta said to heart and not be a bunch of butthurt pansies.

Saw someone on a TCU board (who is treated as an insider) claim he knew who said that, but that the guy would get over it. Its still abount money.

I pray that's the case. Still, it's pretty petty for someone to hold a grudge against someone whose school wasted time and money to try to get into a P5 league only to be told that said league is not expanding and thanks for coming, especially if they didn't really have serious intentions of expanding.

FWIW, USF went through the same process of parading our wares for the Big 12 as Houston did, and I don't have any animosity towards them about that. I think we got a fair hearing, I was happy we were able to make a presentation. But I also felt it was by no means certain that they would expand. I always thought it was a longshot but a shot worth taking.

(08-27-2021 08:26 PM)bullet Wrote:  Boise and Memphis are clearly below the rest academically.
Boise, Tulane and Rice are clearly below the rest in revenues.
BYU, SMU, UConn, UCF and UH are above the rest in revenues.
Note that this revenue includes institutional support.
Boise, Tulane, Rice, Memphis and SMU are clearly the smallest.

Without TV ratings stats, these numbers would indicate that Boise, Tulane, Rice and Air Force are unlikely. UConn is unlikely for obvious reasons. BYU, Houston and UCF look strong. Cincinnati, USF, Colorado St. and SMU have good points. Memphis looks good only in fan support-basketball and football attendance.

After looking at all of your numbers it seems like BYU and UCF are the obvious adds if they go to 10. If they want 12, add Cincinnati and Memphis, nice bridge to West Virginia and a little to UCF although not much.

(08-27-2021 08:26 PM)bullet Wrote:  Boise and Memphis are clearly below the rest academically.
Boise, Tulane and Rice are clearly below the rest in revenues.
BYU, SMU, UConn, UCF and UH are above the rest in revenues.
Note that this revenue includes institutional support.
Boise, Tulane, Rice, Memphis and SMU are clearly the smallest.

Without TV ratings stats, these numbers would indicate that Boise, Tulane, Rice and Air Force are unlikely. UConn is unlikely for obvious reasons. BYU, Houston and UCF look strong. Cincinnati, USF, Colorado St. and SMU have good points. Memphis looks good only in fan support-basketball and football attendance.

I will bet that when the Big 12 presidents and ADs rank potential candidates, they will not agree with you that Cincinnati's value is so low that they belong on some lower tier with CSU and SMU.

(08-27-2021 08:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 08:28 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 06:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 01:11 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 01:05 PM)Statefan Wrote:  UT and TAMU want to keep Houston down. There are many reasons beyond sports.

It shouldn't matter to them anymore since neither one will be sharing a conference with Houston. But, whatever.

Also, I read somewhere that the Remaining VIII are still upset about UH Board of Regents Chairman Tillman Fertitta chewing them out over the dog and pony show that was "Big XII expansion". Remaining VII: It's not his fault your league made about a dozen schools (give or take a couple) jump through hoops and you still said "nah, we good, yo" after it was all said and done. Maybe you should take what Fertitta said to heart and not be a bunch of butthurt pansies.

Saw someone on a TCU board (who is treated as an insider) claim he knew who said that, but that the guy would get over it. Its still abount money.

I pray that's the case. Still, it's pretty petty for someone to hold a grudge against someone whose school wasted time and money to try to get into a P5 league only to be told that said league is not expanding and thanks for coming, especially if they didn't really have serious intentions of expanding.

FWIW, USF went through the same process of parading our wares for the Big 12 as Houston did, and I don't have any animosity towards them about that. I think we got a fair hearing, I was happy we were able to make a presentation. But I also felt it was by no means certain that they would expand. I always thought it was a longshot but a shot worth taking.

I remember that, too. I also remember that we were listed as one of the favorites as well, but of course, once the writing was on the wall that they weren't going to expand, I got mad, vented a bit, then moved on.

USF could get back to elite status if they were to join a P5 conference as well. The only problem (that is, if it's perceived as one by presidents of P5 members) is that you don't have an on-campus stadium. Of course, major programs like USC and UCLA, for example, don't play on campus either. In USC's case, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is practically a stone's throw from campus. I don't know how far Raymond James Stadium is from USF.

(08-27-2021 06:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 01:17 PM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  I think question one is whether Big XII administrators are willing not only to overlook their own cultural objections to BYU, but also whether they are willing to put up with the campus protests that will follow, even on “conservative” campuses. If so, BYU is a logical addition.

IF BYU comes in, that opens up the possibility for CSU. I still think they’re a long shot, but I definitely think BYU would be a prerequisite.

Houston still makes a lot of sense to me. Having games IN the top two TX markets is important. Are they UT or aTm? No - but at least they’d actually be THERE.

Cincy and UCF are logical adds. Memphis also has strengths.

I agree with many that 12 is probably optimal, from the standpoint of value. The only question is which 12. As a fan I would be fine with more, if they’re the right choices.

Back in 2008-9 when Texas was doing really well and Houston had a couple good seasons, Texas ratings were off the scale in Houston. But Houston had good solid ratings, better than anyone else. The Houston paper used to do a regular report on TV ratings. And that was a CUSA Houston.

Wierd thing--there were more than a few times when the ratings in some of the other Texas major cities were nearly as high as they were in Houston. That surprised me.

(08-27-2021 08:17 PM)bullet Wrote:  Academic rankings

ARWU 2021 USNWR
Rice 101-150 16
Cincinnati 201-300 143
Colorado St. 201-300 153
Houston 201-300 176
Uconn 201-300 63
USF 201-300 103
UCF 301-400 160
BYU 401-500 80
SMU 601-700 66
Tulane 601-700 41
Boise 801-900 298-389
Memphis 901-1000 258
Air Force NR NLA 28


Texas 41 42
Kansas 201-300 124
Iowa St. 301-400 118
Kansas St. 401-500 170
West Virginia 401-500 241
Oklahoma 501-600 133
Texas Tech 501-600 217
Baylor 601-700 76
Ok. State 601-700 187
TCU NR 80

Unfortunately I don't think Memphis made the ARWU for 2021.

(08-27-2021 08:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  to the remaining 8-average distance in miles
Average
distance
SMU 462
Memphis 594.4
Rice 594
Houston 660.5
Air Force 731
Cincinnati 783
Colorado St. 805
Tulane 807
BYU 1,183
UCF 1,233
USF 1,256
Uconn 1,456
Boise 1,530

Wait. How can (The University of) Houston and Rice university, which are in the SAME city, seperated by...what...5 miles?... be "660" and "594" "average miles distant" from the remaining "Big XII" members? That's a differential of 66 miles for those two, neighboring schools.

(08-27-2021 01:34 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 12:31 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  This is it: Texas IS the endgame to power conference realignment. There is no realistic response that any conference can counter with that makes any sense outside of doing something for the sake of doing something. There is also no expansion that actually makes the SEC more money per school than what just happened. It's OVER.

Not sure what you mean by “It’s OVER”?

The SEC’s expansion is phenomenal. I don’t see any other conference being able to match the (per team) value of the new SEC. Their strength / advantage in football, teams and markets, will be huge.

Nevertheless, each of the “Alliance” conferences have collegiate brands with value that are above the SEC average. The SEC can still benefit from additional expansion. Realignment can still change the relative strength of all power conferences. The major difference after this expansion is that realignment moves alone, are unlikely to change which conference is at the top of the “power” food chain. B12 expansion can still help a university to enhance its collegiate profile / brand.

Really seems like he means what he said in the following post:

Quote: Leagues don't need to expand for the sake of expanding. It's over for power conference expansion outside of Big 12 replacements. Done. Fin.

The key issue is the claim that the SEC can still benefit from additional expansion. There is a current value for SEC schools which the adds have to clear, including value of the individual schools and accumulated SEC brand equity.

The increment between the BigTen and SEC is not going to be big enough to cover the hit in conference brand equity with the top schools in each conference, so they won't be raiding each other, no matter which one ends up at the top of the conference distribution ranking charts. So there's not going to be any raiding of one by the other unless there is a major structural shift in college sports. So for SEC or BigTen expansion, you'd need to look to the ACC and PAC12.

Now suppose that the average value of the 16 school SEC is X. And suppose you are looking for a pair of schools that add 10% to that, in terms of average value (because schools care about per school payout, which is leveraged from average per school media value).

That means that after the SEC has grown to 18, the total has to grow from 16X to 18(1.1X), which is from 16X to 19.8X. So the two schools have to add 3.8X. So each school has to be worth about 1.9 times as much as the average SEC school.

And with adding Texas and Oklahoma, the SEC has raised "X" by an appreciable amount over what it was before.

And the SEC itself has brand equity which is part of that X, and which the incoming schools don't add to right away, so really the incoming schools on average would have to be over twice the value of the average SEC school, standing on their own.

It's quite possible that after the Texas and Oklahoma adds have been "bedded down", not even Clemson+FSU add enough value to justify adding to the SEC. In which case, SEC expansion would be over.

The Big Ten is even simpler, because picking freely from the ACC and PAC12, the Big Ten isn't likely to have available a pair of schools that have the net value of a Clemson+FSU add. The asterisk is Notre Dame, so that is qualified on "under status quo conditions in which Notre Dame can maintain independence".

Then if there are no PAC12 or ACC adds that make it worthwhile for them to expand to 14/16 or 16 (and the ACC has the same asterisk for Notre Dame), the only remaining P5 move is, indeed, the coming Big12 expansion.

At Eight, the first pair that the Big12 picks gets a value escalator (in real value, that is, not in contract terms) from the reduced risk in buying the weekly inventory of a 10 school conference versus an 8 school conference. But past that, the Big12 adds face the same leverage against them, making any expansion past 12 unlikely ... partly because after you've picked "the best pair" to go to 12, you've raised the bar on the next pair, which is, intrinsically, the second best pair.

Whether there are any pairs of schools that move the needle enough to justify the Big12 actually becoming 12 schools ... that's really a question for the people the run the numbers for the television networks. From the outside looking in, our guesses about the media values of the various schools come with wide ranges of error. When we start with the range of guesses for the underlying value of the Remaining Eight, and add the range of guesses for the incremental values brought by the potential candidate schools, for the choice that is by its nature the closest above or below the breakeven line ... well, that remains murky. IMV, without reporting from their own financial analysis, we are merely speculating.

(08-27-2021 05:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 01:19 PM)Jared7 Wrote:  Yes, the escalator was eliminated (with ESPN) at the time of the recent ESPN+ Tier 3 Big 12 deal, which also included the CCG change-over (and an average of $2.3 million per school that usually isn't counted for Big 12 teams' Tier 3 deals when discussing overall valuation and haircuts).

So is it still there with respect to FOX?

If so, ESPN could squeeze FOX by encouraging expansion now, which would cost FOX a whole lot more than it would ESPN.

Would Fox have been involved with the CCG changeover part? If so, it would have been quite odd for them to sign off while remaining on the hook for any random expansion the Big12 might decide on.

Bullett ignored that Boise State got the sweet heart deal to earn more money from tv rights. ESFPN were willing to pay for Boise State's home games.

Last train out, fellers! Isn’t this exciting?!?!