With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official. I am also starting to change my view on BYU. I think they may bite the bullet as their scheduling may take a hit down the road due to the alliance. Therefore,

The Big 12 expands by 2 to get to 10: BYU and Cincy

They go with an 8-game 2-division schedule to maximize OOC

West: BYU, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State
East: Cincy, WVU, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State

With still having both Texas and Florida schools as well as Navy, the American can go after a part of the MW.

The American expands by 2 to get to 12: Air Force and Colorado State
West: Air Force, Colorado State, Navy, Houston, SMU, Tulsa
East: UCF, USF, ECU, Tulane, Memphis, Temple

The Mountain West expands by 2 to get to 12: Rice and UTEP
Pacific: San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Nevada, Hawaii, Fresno State
Mountain: Rice, UTEP, Boise State, Utah State, Wyoming, New Mexico

C-USA, the MAC, and the Sun Belt stay put at 12, 12, and 10 members respectively.

The independents (sans BYU) stay the same.

Gonzaga joins the Mountain West for Olympic sports due to BYU's departure from the WCC.

I strongly doubt that a weakened AAC will have any success poaching from the MWC.

(08-26-2021 07:03 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I strongly doubt that a weakened AAC will have any success poaching from the MWC.

In this scenario, they are only losing Cincy. They still would have the Texas schools, Florida schools, Memphis, and Navy.

I think the Big 12 has to go to 12. If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

I concur with the idea that the AAC is in no position to try and poach from the MWC.

(08-26-2021 07:03 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I strongly doubt that a weakened AAC will have any success poaching from the MWC.

Correct - especially since the expectation that the Big 12 will eventually get to 12, from the AAC.

No advantage to go to the AAC at this point, MWC will be stronger.

(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the Big 12 has to go to 12. If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

I concur with the idea that the AAC is in no position to try and poach from the MWC.

I'm struggling to see the value TV-wise for that move. If BYU's football is ONLY worth a little under $10 million, I don't think Cincy or Houston or Boise State's football portion would be even worth that. I wouldn't be opposed to 12 but only if it is Houston and Memphis. UCF and Boise State would create islands with average basketball programs (a no-no for Kansas, the new Texas of the conference).

(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the Big 12 has to go to 12. If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

I concur with the idea that the AAC is in no position to try and poach from the MWC.

I agree. While I certainly think that only expanding by 2 is a very real possibility and maybe even the most likely possibility, from a neutral fan’s perspective, expanding by 4, 6, or even 8 would be the smartest decision. The reality is that there’s nothing the B12 can do to catch up to the P4 in terms of prestige or revenue. HOWEVER, they can put them into a very close position by raiding their main competitor (the AAC), as well as go a long way in providing long term security by expanding beyond 10. A conference with Baylor, BYU, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, and perhaps a few others would certainly be in a position to compete for a playoff spot and additional revenue. At this point going coast to coast may be the one revenue card they still have to play.

(08-26-2021 06:55 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official.

The ACC Commissioner - who is an actual official source - already declared the Big XII a Power 5 conference. Any notion of a P4 is officially fan fiction.

(08-26-2021 07:27 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 06:55 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official.

The ACC Commissioner - who is an actual official source - already declared the Big XII a Power 5 conference. Any notion of a P4 is officially fan fiction.

LOL

Even if the Big 12 thinks BYU is the best available team and that they would accept if offered, I still think the better strategy is to take the best four teams (not necessarily the four best teams) from the AAC to eliminate them as a competitor. You would be miles ahead of the #6 conference, whether that's the AAC or MWC, which would be close to equal in strength (or weakness, if you prefer).

Taking fewer than four leaves too much meat on the bone for the AAC, keeping them a competitor.

I'm also assuming that the AAC is currently undervalued relative to their strength because they were unstable and unwilling to sign a GoR when they signed their last deal. If they might have been worth $10 million per team with a GoR, then you would also assume that their best teams would be worth more than that - maybe even close to the estimated value of the L8 at $14 million - because their weakest teams would be worth considerably less.

I would go for Cincy, USF, UCF and Houston. If the Texas schools blackball the Cougars, the backup is Memphis. But I think they could be persuaded to suck it up and invite Houston. I have zero doubt that all four of these would jump at the offer.

(08-26-2021 06:55 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official. I am also starting to change my view on BYU. I think they may bite the bullet as their scheduling may take a hit down the road due to the alliance. Therefore,

I'm starting to think that north/south politics might influence who the L8 seeks to expand with. IMO, both BYU and Cincy are "northern" additions, so the southern part of the conference will not go for that.

So I am starting to think that if two are added, it will be Houston from the south and either BYU or Cincy from the north.

Assuming BYU declines to join a rump L10, that means I'm predicting ... Cincy and Houston go to the L8.

And if that happens, I do not think the AAC will be strong enough to raid the MW. It will backfill with a school or two from within its footprint, like App State or UAB or ULL or Georgia State. Maybe even FAU.

BTW, I do not expect L8 expansion any time soon. They have every reason to be patient and wait for developments with TX and OU to unfold first. And they don't lose anything by waiting either. They will be able to pluck from the AAC just as easily in 2023 or 2024 as they can now.

(08-26-2021 07:28 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:27 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 06:55 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official.

The ACC Commissioner - who is an actual official source - already declared the Big XII a Power 5 conference. Any notion of a P4 is officially fan fiction.

LOL

You consider yourself a source of authority over an actual P5 Commissioner?

(08-26-2021 07:29 PM)ken d Wrote:  Even if the Big 12 thinks BYU is the best available team and that they would accept if offered, I still think the better strategy is to take the best four teams (not necessarily the four best teams) from the AAC to eliminate them as a competitor. You would be miles ahead of the #6 conference, whether that's the AAC or MWC, which would be close to equal in strength (or weakness, if you prefer).

Taking fewer than four leaves too much meat on the bone for the AAC, keeping them a competitor.

I'm also assuming that the AAC is currently undervalued relative to their strength because they were unstable and unwilling to sign a GoR when they signed their last deal. If they might have been worth $10 million per team with a GoR, then you would also assume that their best teams would be worth more than that - maybe even close to the estimated value of the L8 at $14 million - because their weakest teams would be worth considerably less.

I would go for Cincy, USF, UCF and Houston. If the Texas schools blackball the Cougars, the backup is Memphis. But I think they could be persuaded to suck it up and invite Houston. I have zero doubt that all four of these would jump at the offer.

Kansas would balk at this.

(08-26-2021 07:34 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:28 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:27 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 06:55 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official.

The ACC Commissioner - who is an actual official source - already declared the Big XII a Power 5 conference. Any notion of a P4 is officially fan fiction.

LOL

You consider yourself a source of authority over an actual P5 Commissioner?

If the Big 12 is a power conference, why weren't they invited to the Alliance?

(08-26-2021 07:36 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:34 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:28 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:27 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 06:55 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official.

The ACC Commissioner - who is an actual official source - already declared the Big XII a Power 5 conference. Any notion of a P4 is officially fan fiction.

LOL

You consider yourself a source of authority over an actual P5 Commissioner?

If the Big 12 is a power conference, why weren't they invited to the Alliance?

Because Texas/Oklahoma - future SEC members - would be privy to the talks.

(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

In football, that's right. But two reasons why the Big 12 presidents might think differently:

(1) They might think the Big 12 remainers are already far ahead of the AAC in football and that there's no need to skim off the AAC's three or four best football teams.

(2) If consultants who have talked to networks tell them the Big 12 will get the same amount of TV money whether they have 10 or 12, the presidents might focus solely on that and decide that 10 is enough.

(08-26-2021 07:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 06:55 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official. I am also starting to change my view on BYU. I think they may bite the bullet as their scheduling may take a hit down the road due to the alliance. Therefore,

I'm starting to think that north/south politics might influence who the L8 seeks to expand with. IMO, both BYU and Cincy are "northern" additions, so the southern part of the conference will not go for that.

So I am starting to think that if two are added, it will be Houston from the south and either BYU or Cincy from the north.

Assuming BYU declines to join a rump L10, that means I'm predicting ... Cincy and Houston go to the L8.

And if that happens, I do not think the AAC will be strong enough to raid the MW. It will backfill with a school or two from within its footprint, like App State or UAB or ULL or Georgia State. Maybe even FAU.

BYU is anything but northern in its politics.

(08-26-2021 07:37 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:36 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:34 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:28 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:27 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  The ACC Commissioner - who is an actual official source - already declared the Big XII a Power 5 conference. Any notion of a P4 is officially fan fiction.

LOL

You consider yourself a source of authority over an actual P5 Commissioner?

If the Big 12 is a power conference, why weren't they invited to the Alliance?

Because Texas/Oklahoma - future SEC members - would be privy to the talks.

If Texas and Oklahoma are already de-facto members of the club, why would that matter unless the Alliance conferences do not see the rest of the Big 12 as peers?

(08-26-2021 07:12 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I'm struggling to see the value TV-wise for that move. If BYU's football is ONLY worth a little under $10 million, I don't think Cincy or Houston or Boise State's football portion would be even worth that. I wouldn't be opposed to 12 but only if it is Houston and Memphis. UCF and Boise State would create islands with average basketball programs (a no-no for Kansas, the new Texas of the conference).

One of the common overlooked aspects of realignment is that conference affiliation is a two-way street.

The value of the new programs goes up as they're playing higher competition. Their recruiting goes up and becomes much better.

This is actually the second biggest negative to BYU, in my opinion. That's FAR LESS of a possibility for BYU than other schools. BYU is one of the most consistent schools in the history of college basketball... they are NIT for sure, NCAA bubble, maybe as high as a 6 seed and could win a game or two. 18 to 24+ wins. They've done that for 35 of the last 43 years! And it's because they're going to get the best Mormon talent in the world, and they're probably not getting that much non-Mormon talent at all. They're locked into a very small downside and not a huge upside.


UCF is a huge campus that looks like a P5 member, the only thing they lack is the affiliation and the recruiting that comes with it. There's no reason to be concerned with UCF basketball.... because being in the Big 12 and playing Kansas will TRANSFORM UCF basketball in the same way the Big 12 transformed TCU basketball.

TCU basketball NOW would boat race the TCU teams of the MWC or C-USA. By SRS, 4 of the top 6 seasons in TCU basketball history are their B12 years. Jamie Dixon is obviously a huge reason for that. But Jamie Dixon isn't leaving the ACC for TCU unless TCU gets into the Big 12.

The other overlooked aspect is distance/travel. The "Island" of UCF isn't a problem. The concept of the "Island" applies to West Virginia being the only member of the Big 12 in the Eastern Time Zone, but it isn't because of the miles, it's the access:

Morgantown airport: 76 arrivals per week.
Orlando airport: 607 arrivals PER DAY.

UCF won't be on an island because every airport has flights to Disney World.

No life rafts are coming. It’s time to pull the trigger on UC and Houston/Memphis. Or UCF/USF. Stop playing games.