(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the Big 12 has to go to 12. If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

I concur with the idea that the AAC is in no position to try and poach from the MWC.

Big 12 HAS to go to 12.

Cinci and BYU are obvious.

Next up is Houston and UCF.

That's a pretty solid # of eyeballs on B12 football, Cinci, Houston and UCF being removed from the AAC is the nail in that coffin.

Its not about the pie being bigger, its about separation from the #6 conference. And being in new recruiting markets (like Florida).

I thought the new rule was that with less than 12 you had to play a full round-robin schedule?

The B12 is familiar with 10-team scheduling. Going to 12 would result in reduced payout (12-way split vs 10-way). You might get a CCG but TV revenue for it may not even cover the cost.

(08-26-2021 07:05 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:03 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I strongly doubt that a weakened AAC will have any success poaching from the MWC.

In this scenario, they are only losing Cincy. They still would have the Texas schools, Florida schools, Memphis, and Navy.

The AAC doesn’t need or add anyone if they just lose one school, they’d still have ten FB schools and would be able to play a CCG. Unless the Little VIII takes two or more AAC teams there is no reason to backfill with CUSA, MWC or Sun Belt schools that won’t move the needle on TV ratings or rights money.

(08-26-2021 07:47 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the Big 12 has to go to 12. If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

I concur with the idea that the AAC is in no position to try and poach from the MWC.

Big 12 HAS to go to 12.

Cinci and BYU are obvious.

Next up is Houston and UCF.

That's a pretty solid # of eyeballs on B12 football, Cinci, Houston and UCF being removed from the AAC is the nail in that coffin.

Its not about the pie being bigger, its about separation from the #6 conference. And being in new recruiting markets (like Florida).

Tell your school's president, he's on the Big 12's expansion subcommittee.

Quote:Don Williams
@AJ_DonWilliams

Kirby Hocutt says he is on a Big 12 expansion sub-committee with Baylor AD Mack Rhoades and presidents of Kansas and Iowa State.

4:28 PM · Aug 26, 2021 · Twitter Web App

(08-26-2021 08:34 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  I thought the new rule was that with less than 12 you had to play a full round-robin schedule?

The B12 is familiar with 10-team scheduling. Going to 12 would result in reduced payout (12-way split vs 10-way). You might get a CCG but TV revenue for it may not even cover the cost.

You don’t have to play a full round-robin to stage a CCG with fewer than 12 teams, you can do that, like the Big XII, or split into 2 different 5 team divisions in order to only play 8 conference games, like the Sun Belt.

I do question who the remaining Little VII schools think they’d play in 4 OOC games besides the MWC, AAC, ASun and WAC.

Calls are being made.

ESPN might not want any AAC teams to go anywhere, mybe they want to protect their investment, mybe this makes espn pony up more money to AAC schools to stay put...
a pac-12 writer “ milner “ wrote that if pac were to expand the clear cut #1 team would be houston , yes “ clear cut “, because of pretty much better everything than what’s left in b-12
really is likely that AAC gets more money from espn to stay together and mybe the expanded playoffs do happen... would be great for the AAC...

(08-26-2021 07:37 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

In football, that's right. But two reasons why the Big 12 presidents might think differently:

(1) They might think the Big 12 remainers are already far ahead of the AAC in football and that there's no need to skim off the AAC's three or four best football teams.

(2) If consultants who have talked to networks tell them the Big 12 will get the same amount of TV money whether they have 10 or 12, the presidents might focus solely on that and decide that 10 is enough.

If the Big 12 thinks OSU, TT, TCU and Baylor, with their recruiting advantage gone, can compete with UH, UC, UM and UCF then game on. It would be a fair fight, but not one worth having. The networks numbers are pretty clear, and the opportunity to cement themselves as a P5 (last in current perception) but still in the club is too important.

There is absolutely no TV value in any of the teams available. The Big 12 is not getting games on FOX/ABC/NBC/CBS by adding UCF/Cincy/Memphis. Those programs have forever played on the ESPN/2 networks and that will continue until the end of time. You're not unseating Michigan-Wisconsin, Tennessee-Auburn, North Carolina-Virginia Tech, Stanford-Washington type games for their time slots. Adding 12 just splits the limited revenue more ways than necessary.

Stay in the market, take schools where you have alums, and maximize that audience. Adding a program a thousand miles away that no one has any history with that will finish middle of the pack creating more 7-5 type teams helps no one. Their most logical addition is SMU, where the Big 12 has 130k+ alums in the DFW metroplex. Houston is next with 50k+ Big 12 alums in Greater Houston.

(08-26-2021 07:05 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:03 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I strongly doubt that a weakened AAC will have any success poaching from the MWC.

In this scenario, they are only losing Cincy. They still would have the Texas schools, Florida schools, Memphis, and Navy.

But BSU has that sweet deal with the MWC. That won't happen with the AAC.

(08-26-2021 07:18 PM)3BNole Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the Big 12 has to go to 12. If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

I concur with the idea that the AAC is in no position to try and poach from the MWC.

I agree. While I certainly think that only expanding by 2 is a very real possibility and maybe even the most likely possibility, from a neutral fan’s perspective, expanding by 4, 6, or even 8 would be the smartest decision. The reality is that there’s nothing the B12 can do to catch up to the P4 in terms of prestige or revenue. HOWEVER, they can put them into a very close position by raiding their main competitor (the AAC), as well as go a long way in providing long term security by expanding beyond 10. A conference with Baylor, BYU, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, and perhaps a few others would certainly be in a position to compete for a playoff spot and additional revenue. At this point going coast to coast may be the one revenue card they still have to play.

Are the picking up SDSU?

(08-26-2021 07:37 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

In football, that's right. But two reasons why the Big 12 presidents might think differently:

(1) They might think the Big 12 remainers are already far ahead of the AAC in football and that there's no need to skim off the AAC's three or four best football teams.

(2) If consultants who have talked to networks tell them the Big 12 will get the same amount of TV money whether they have 10 or 12, the presidents might focus solely on that and decide that 10 is enough.

You are right. They could join the AAC in the future years.

(08-26-2021 09:12 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:18 PM)3BNole Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the Big 12 has to go to 12. If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

I concur with the idea that the AAC is in no position to try and poach from the MWC.

I agree. While I certainly think that only expanding by 2 is a very real possibility and maybe even the most likely possibility, from a neutral fan’s perspective, expanding by 4, 6, or even 8 would be the smartest decision. The reality is that there’s nothing the B12 can do to catch up to the P4 in terms of prestige or revenue. HOWEVER, they can put them into a very close position by raiding their main competitor (the AAC), as well as go a long way in providing long term security by expanding beyond 10. A conference with Baylor, BYU, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, and perhaps a few others would certainly be in a position to compete for a playoff spot and additional revenue. At this point going coast to coast may be the one revenue card they still have to play.

Are the picking up SDSU?

If they were going to blow everything up and go to 16, then I would definitely consider SDSU along with Boise State. Personally this would be the order I would go with: 1. BYU 2. Houston 3. Cincinnati 4. UCF 5. Memphis 6. USF 7. Boise State 8. SDSU

You can stop at whichever number you think (plus 1, 2, 4, 6, or 8).

(08-26-2021 07:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 06:55 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official. I am also starting to change my view on BYU. I think they may bite the bullet as their scheduling may take a hit down the road due to the alliance. Therefore,

I'm starting to think that north/south politics might influence who the L8 seeks to expand with. IMO, both BYU and Cincy are "northern" additions, so the southern part of the conference will not go for that.

So I am starting to think that if two are added, it will be Houston from the south and either BYU or Cincy from the north.

Assuming BYU declines to join a rump L10, that means I'm predicting ... Cincy and Houston go to the L8.

And if that happens, I do not think the AAC will be strong enough to raid the MW. It will backfill with a school or two from within its footprint, like App State or UAB or ULL or Georgia State. Maybe even FAU.

BTW, I do not expect L8 expansion any time soon. They have every reason to be patient and wait for developments with TX and OU to unfold first. And they don't lose anything by waiting either. They will be able to pluck from the AAC just as easily in 2023 or 2024 as they can now.

I actually think BYU would be a southern division team.

(08-26-2021 08:59 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  ESPN might not want any AAC teams to go anywhere, mybe they want to protect their investment, mybe this makes espn pony up more money to AAC schools to stay put...
a pac-12 writer “ milner “ wrote that if pac were to expand the clear cut #1 team would be houston , yes “ clear cut “, because of pretty much better everything than what’s left in b-12
really is likely that AAC gets more money from espn to stay together and mybe the expanded playoffs do happen... would be great for the AAC...

My fingers are crossed.

(08-26-2021 09:55 PM)3BNole Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 09:12 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:18 PM)3BNole Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the Big 12 has to go to 12. If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

I concur with the idea that the AAC is in no position to try and poach from the MWC.

I agree. While I certainly think that only expanding by 2 is a very real possibility and maybe even the most likely possibility, from a neutral fan’s perspective, expanding by 4, 6, or even 8 would be the smartest decision. The reality is that there’s nothing the B12 can do to catch up to the P4 in terms of prestige or revenue. HOWEVER, they can put them into a very close position by raiding their main competitor (the AAC), as well as go a long way in providing long term security by expanding beyond 10. A conference with Baylor, BYU, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, and perhaps a few others would certainly be in a position to compete for a playoff spot and additional revenue. At this point going coast to coast may be the one revenue card they still have to play.

Are the picking up SDSU?

If they were going to blow everything up and go to 16, then I would definitely consider SDSU along with Boise State. Personally this would be the order I would go with: 1. BYU 2. Houston 3. Cincinnati 4. UCF 5. Memphis 6. USF 7. Boise State 8. SDSU

You can stop at whichever number you think (plus 1, 2, 4, 6, or 8).

I was not saying SDSU as an addition. Bring in UC, UCF, Memphis, UH, and I hate to say this, USF, along with either BYU or BSU. This ends any real competition to the newly built Big12. The coast to coast comment was a bad pun.

(08-26-2021 07:47 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the Big 12 has to go to 12. If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

I concur with the idea that the AAC is in no position to try and poach from the MWC.

Big 12 HAS to go to 12.

Cinci and BYU are obvious.

Next up is Houston and UCF.

That's a pretty solid # of eyeballs on B12 football, Cinci, Houston and UCF being removed from the AAC is the nail in that coffin.

Its not about the pie being bigger, its about separation from the #6 conference. And being in new recruiting markets (like Florida).

I don’t think BYU is that obvious. They are a too for west that will stretch out the conference too far. Plus Sunday play and remember how the students protested at the mention of BYU being considered last time and now is even more political environment than before.

(08-26-2021 09:59 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 06:55 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official. I am also starting to change my view on BYU. I think they may bite the bullet as their scheduling may take a hit down the road due to the alliance. Therefore,

I'm starting to think that north/south politics might influence who the L8 seeks to expand with. IMO, both BYU and Cincy are "northern" additions, so the southern part of the conference will not go for that.

So I am starting to think that if two are added, it will be Houston from the south and either BYU or Cincy from the north.

Assuming BYU declines to join a rump L10, that means I'm predicting ... Cincy and Houston go to the L8.

And if that happens, I do not think the AAC will be strong enough to raid the MW. It will backfill with a school or two from within its footprint, like App State or UAB or ULL or Georgia State. Maybe even FAU.

BTW, I do not expect L8 expansion any time soon. They have every reason to be patient and wait for developments with TX and OU to unfold first. And they don't lose anything by waiting either. They will be able to pluck from the AAC just as easily in 2023 or 2024 as they can now.

I actually think BYU would be a southern division team.

Yeah, my geography is a bit off there, LOL.

(08-26-2021 07:05 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:03 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I strongly doubt that a weakened AAC will have any success poaching from the MWC.

In this scenario, they are only losing Cincy. They still would have the Texas schools, Florida schools, Memphis, and Navy.

There is substantial room for skepticism that the current AAC could poach a the MWC as it stands. Losing Cincy would only deepen the doubt.

Suppose that OK/TX negotiate a 2023 exit and the Big12 take BYU and Cincy to replace them in the current contract. The threat would loom over the AAC that the Big12 may take two more, if their media consultant passes on the news from prospective telecast partners that they can do better with some specific pair.

Even if it never happened, the possibility would weaken their hand in raiding the MWC, and their hand to raid the MWC was never all that strong to begin with.

________________

(08-26-2021 09:04 PM)thrill_house Wrote:  There is absolutely no TV value in any of the teams available. The Big 12 is not getting games on FOX/ABC/NBC/CBS by adding UCF/Cincy/Memphis. Those programs have forever played on the ESPN/2 networks and that will continue until the end of time. ...

Note that both the AAC and the Remaining Eight (excluding all Texas and Oklahoma games) had on average 4 OTA games annually between 2016 and 2019. So while a CBS style SEC GotW is obviously not on offer, the R8 plus the most valuable 3-4 of the AAC could expect to be in the range of 4-8 OTA games annually.
________________

(08-26-2021 07:37 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 07:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If you leave Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF all in the AAC, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of separation between the Big 12’s level and the AAC.

In football, that's right. But two reasons why the Big 12 presidents might think differently:

(1) They might think the Big 12 remainers are already far ahead of the AAC in football and that there's no need to skim off the AAC's three or four best football teams.

(2) If consultants who have talked to networks tell them the Big 12 will get the same amount of TV money whether they have 10 or 12, the presidents might focus solely on that and decide that 10 is enough.

There will clearly be more per school at 10 than at 8 or 9, because of the greater risk in the value of the best game in weekly inventory. That risk pushes down the contract price for the same expected value of the games. So adding two "equivalent value" schools to get to 10 is going to be a boost in contract value.

If there is not 20% more money with 12, then 12 would have to be for some strategic reasons, and I don't actually know any of the Big12 Presidents well enough to know what strategic reasons they would find compelling (since I don't know any of them at all). So ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If there is at least 20% more total money with 12, I would guess that they go with 12 because the total value of the contract being a larger headline number is worth something on its own ... as long as it's the same money or more to each individual school. Plus the "the Big 12" having 12 members has some marginal PR value ... again, so long as it doesn't reduce the conference distribution received by the R8 schools.

(08-26-2021 09:04 PM)thrill_house Wrote:  There is absolutely no TV value in any of the teams available. The Big 12 is not getting games on FOX/ABC/NBC/CBS by adding UCF/Cincy/Memphis. Those programs have forever played on the ESPN/2 networks and that will continue until the end of time. You're not unseating Michigan-Wisconsin, Tennessee-Auburn, North Carolina-Virginia Tech, Stanford-Washington type games for their time slots. Adding 12 just splits the limited revenue more ways than necessary.

Stay in the market, take schools where you have alums, and maximize that audience. Adding a program a thousand miles away that no one has any history with that will finish middle of the pack creating more 7-5 type teams helps no one. Their most logical addition is SMU, where the Big 12 has 130k+ alums in the DFW metroplex. Houston is next with 50k+ Big 12 alums in Greater Houston.

SMU and Houston make the most sense for me as well. I wouldn’t go west until WVU leaves. The cable model is dying a slow death. It will be dead in 5-10 years and replaced by streaming services. It may be location enabled streaming subscriptions but it could be a la carte as well at the right price, and having the best rivalries and synergy is most important.

But the Big 12 is like Nokia. Of course they are going to **** this up, led by Bob himself.

I just don’t feel UCF is the right play unless there is some long term strategy to build a solid eastern block, which they won’t have with 2-3 teams in the ET zone.

I’d go to 10 teams and hold your nose with Houston/UC. Look at other schools at another place and time. Then you remain flexible with BYU/CSU potentially, or Memphis UCF USF and another for 14.