(08-21-2021 03:17 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  I think they are All just reacting to the SEC ..


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Well, we saw what happened to Europe when so many didn't react to Hitler's first push.

The PAC-12 is going for growth if they expand. That's their only option. Just adding schools of so-so value doesn't do anything to help secure the PAC's future. Most of the LO8 schools are all that they will ever be. They've been in the ideal conference situation for them (including WVU in the old Big East), and there's no reason to think that joining the PAC-12 will strengthen their programs or increase their fanbase. Instead, we have seen what little TV value most of them add. So if the PAC-12 does expand, it is going to go for high potential where the eyeballs exist and the programs will both grow in the PAC-12 and that they have sufficient eyeballs to bring to bear even if they struggle at some point. More likely than any of the LO8 (minus TTU) getting in:

UCF
USF
Houston

Why these three schools? Because they are graduating 10,000+ alumni per year and converting those alumni into fans at a higher rate than in the past. They will all three have large fan bases that will provide eyeballs to games at the P5 level. In a P5 conference, all three of these schools easily surpass the viewership of the LO8 within a very short time frame. We have evidence of that with the historic record of USF in the Big East, and UCF & Houston doing very well in the AAC. The only reason anyone thinks the LO8 are ahead of these schools for P5 openings is simply because of the artificial boost to their programs that an affiliation with UT and OU provided them and because people have been conditioned to think that anyone in the P5 club is superior to anyone in the G5 club. And that's simply not reality. The LO8 are all that they will ever be - accidents of history that were lucky enough to be in the right place and the right time to be boosted by far superior programs like UT, OU, Nebraska, and A&M.

The question is the 4th school. Texas Tech has some claim to alumni throughout Texas, and it's the third best brand in a very large state right now. They are at 50,000 or so students as well like my other 3 candidates, so if any of the LO8 provide value to the PAC-12, it's TTU. Compared to Houston, TTU has a lower ceiling simply because of where it is located...the programs are in fairly similar places right now despite TTU having the Big 12 advantage versus Houston. But TTU stands above the LO7 for what it can provide.

It's too bad that Georgia State isn't yet on the AAC level in terms of program success and fan support...their location in Atlanta would be ideal. Same for UNC-Charlotte and UTSA. Memphis isn't really that large of a market, nor is New Orleans. FAU and FIU are both in the right place and large universities graduating lots of alumni quickly, but they also are not where they need to be, even with their potential.

So I think that leaves TTU. This setup has way more value than the other LO8 schools, even if FB-only. I'll happily send our Olympic sports to the Colonial or even the A-Sun if necessary.

(08-21-2021 11:48 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-21-2021 03:58 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  It is great to have conference pride, and the Big 12 has had some very good teams over the years. But I think an LA Times Sports Writer summed it up best: "The Big 12 is done. It only exists to placate Texas and drink off Bevo’s milk. The remaining schools, with proud traditions and rabid fan bases of their own, will have no choice but to scatter. It would be sad. Maybe the Big Ten or Atlantic Coast Conference throws a few a lifeline, but there’s no compelling reason they should."

He added: "And the Pac-12 shouldn’t, either."

This is an interesting case study in economics ... this is a great piece for generating arguments in social media, and completely useless as a piece of analysis. But with newspapers in the decline after the collapse of classified ads, newspaper reporters have no choice but to go for the social media "hot take", no matter how foolish.

Seriously, the LA Times originally existed to carry advertising of various sorts into homes. The reporters at even prestigious papers, with proud traditions and dedicated, though aging, fan bases of their own, will eventually have no choice but to scatter. It will be sad.

I took a paragraph from an article and posted it. That was not the whole article. He was not predicting that the Big 12 was done as a conference, just as a power conference. It was a good article. Here is a link to the article:
https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/202...ansion-win

The LA Times is owned by a billionaire and they are doing just fine. They got hit hard by the pandemic but are recovering. They need to do a better job of transitioning to digital. Their writers do not write articles for a social media "hot take." There is a consensus out west that there is no one among the L8 can that can move the revenue dial enough to be worthwhile. I think the Pac-12 is just doing their due diligence on potential additions to the conference, L8 and other conferences.

(08-21-2021 04:48 PM)Jared7 Wrote:  

(08-21-2021 03:58 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  But I think an LA Times Sports Writer summed it up best: "The Big 12 is done. It only exists to placate Texas and drink off Bevo’s milk.

It's probably great to be an L.A. Sports Writer - you don't really have to do anything like follow sports or pay attention to actual results or anything. Here's UT's Big 12 conference record from 2010-2020:

2010 - 2-6
2011 - 4-5
2012 - 5-4
2013 - 7-2
2014 - 5-4
2015 - 4-5
2016 - 3-6
2017 - 5-4
2018 - 7-3
2019 - 5-4
2020 - 5-3

That's an aggregate of 52-46! Not appallingly terrible or anything, but not all that impressive.

Texas just won the Learfield IMG College Directors' Cup as the top athletic program in the nation. That broke a streak of 25 years by Stanford, who finished second this year. In 2018-2019, Texas led the nation in college athletic revenue (as usual) with $223 million. As a comparison, Texas Tech had revenue in 2018-2019 of $96 million. They are also the last Big 12 team to win a national championship in football.

Texas football has been similar to USC football over the past decade, underperforming on the field, stumbling and bumbling through bad hires at head coach. But they have a huge following, lots of money and a lot of upside potential. So nobody cares about the past decade.

(08-22-2021 02:56 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(08-21-2021 04:48 PM)Jared7 Wrote:  

(08-21-2021 03:58 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  But I think an LA Times Sports Writer summed it up best: "The Big 12 is done. It only exists to placate Texas and drink off Bevo’s milk.

It's probably great to be an L.A. Sports Writer - you don't really have to do anything like follow sports or pay attention to actual results or anything. Here's UT's Big 12 conference record from 2010-2020:

2010 - 2-6
2011 - 4-5
2012 - 5-4
2013 - 7-2
2014 - 5-4
2015 - 4-5
2016 - 3-6
2017 - 5-4
2018 - 7-3
2019 - 5-4
2020 - 5-3

That's an aggregate of 52-46! Not appallingly terrible or anything, but not all that impressive.

Texas just won the Learfield IMG College Directors' Cup as the top athletic program in the nation. That broke a streak of 25 years by Stanford, who finished second this year. In 2018-2019, Texas led the nation in college athletic revenue (as usual) with $223 million. As a comparison, Texas Tech had revenue in 2018-2019 of $96 million. They are also the last Big 12 team to win a national championship in football.

Texas football has been similar to USC football over the past decade, underperforming on the field, stumbling and bumbling through bad hires at head coach. But they have a huge following, lots of money and a lot of upside potential. So nobody cares about the past decade.

Except us UT fans.

The PAC12 Presidents are an arrogant and often disagreeable bunch.

Frankly, I doubt they will expand with anyone anytime soon. They will point fingers and weather the financial and broadcasting woes.

Whatever this "alliance" becomes, they may expect certain scheduling within that format will be a fix. They may be deceiving themselves how much such could accomplish. An Arizona - Boston College fb game, for example, won't be much of a solution among similar efforts.

Texas Tech has NEVER WON a Conference Championship in Football ..IN ANY LEAGUE ..They have lost 2/3 of their Big 12 games over the last decade …Can’t imagine what they could offer


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(08-22-2021 04:09 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  Texas Tech has NEVER WON a Conference Championship in Football ..IN ANY LEAGUE ..They have lost 2/3 of their Big 12 games over the last decade …Can’t imagine what they could offer


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They frequently won in the Border Conference. They tied for first in 1976 and 1994 in the SWC and went to the Cotton Bowl as SWC champs in 1994 (after a 5 way tie).

(08-22-2021 03:17 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-22-2021 02:56 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(08-21-2021 04:48 PM)Jared7 Wrote:  

(08-21-2021 03:58 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  But I think an LA Times Sports Writer summed it up best: "The Big 12 is done. It only exists to placate Texas and drink off Bevo’s milk.

It's probably great to be an L.A. Sports Writer - you don't really have to do anything like follow sports or pay attention to actual results or anything. Here's UT's Big 12 conference record from 2010-2020:

2010 - 2-6
2011 - 4-5
2012 - 5-4
2013 - 7-2
2014 - 5-4
2015 - 4-5
2016 - 3-6
2017 - 5-4
2018 - 7-3
2019 - 5-4
2020 - 5-3

That's an aggregate of 52-46! Not appallingly terrible or anything, but not all that impressive.

Texas just won the Learfield IMG College Directors' Cup as the top athletic program in the nation. That broke a streak of 25 years by Stanford, who finished second this year. In 2018-2019, Texas led the nation in college athletic revenue (as usual) with $223 million. As a comparison, Texas Tech had revenue in 2018-2019 of $96 million. They are also the last Big 12 team to win a national championship in football.

Texas football has been similar to USC football over the past decade, underperforming on the field, stumbling and bumbling through bad hires at head coach. But they have a huge following, lots of money and a lot of upside potential. So nobody cares about the past decade.

Except us UT fans.

That's the rub here. The Texas nation would surely like to have the 2010s on the field back, wish it was like the 2000s*. But in terms of conference realignment, that's irrelevant. As some say around here, the mark of a true Blue Blood Power is that everyone wants you even when you are down on your luck. It took the SEC about two minutes to send an invitation to Texas after receiving the 'letter of interest', despite those 10 years of mostly mediocrity. That's because Texas is probably the single most valuable brand in the country.

And that's what it means to say that the L8 "drank Bevo's milk" or whatever phrase the Times writer used. It was the presence of 900-pound gorilla Texas and 700 pound gorilla Oklahoma that resulted in the L8 150 pound chimpanzees collecting Power-level checks the past 10 years.



* Save for that one evening at the 2019 Sugar Bowl, when Bevo stampeded UGA and then the Horns upended the Dawgs.

(08-22-2021 06:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-22-2021 04:09 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  Texas Tech has NEVER WON a Conference Championship in Football ..IN ANY LEAGUE ..They have lost 2/3 of their Big 12 games over the last decade …Can’t imagine what they could offer


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They frequently won in the Border Conference. They tied for first in 1976 and 1994 in the SWC and went to the Cotton Bowl as SWC champs in 1994 (after a 5 way tie).

I was there in ‘94 …only reason they got to go was because they HAD NEVER BEEN ..!! Aggies actually won


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I also attended Houston vs Maryland in Cotton Bowl after ‘77 Season


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In the SWC the “Tie Breaker “ was head to head competition …Houston WON and earned their victory in the Cotton Bowl as THE SWC Champs


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(08-22-2021 06:42 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  That's the rub here. The Texas nation would surely like to have the 2010s on the field back, wish it was like the 2000s*. But in terms of conference realignment, that's irrelevant. As some say around here, the mark of a true Blue Blood Power is that everyone wants you even when you are down on your luck. It took the SEC about two minutes to send an invitation to Texas after receiving the 'letter of interest', despite those 10 years of mostly mediocrity. That's because Texas is probably the single most valuable brand in the country.

And that's what it means to say that the L8 "drank Bevo's milk" or whatever phrase the Times writer used. It was the presence of 900-pound gorilla Texas and 700 pound gorilla Oklahoma that resulted in the L8 150 pound chimpanzees collecting Power-level checks the past 10 years.



* Save for that one evening at the 2019 Sugar Bowl, when Bevo stampeded UGA and then the Horns upended the Dawgs.

That's interesting. Here are the scores of the 9 games between TCU and Texas in the Big 12:

2012 - TCU 20 UT 13
2013 - UT 30 TCU 7
2014 - TCU 48 UT 10
2015 - TCU 50 UT 7
2016 - TCU 31 UT 9
2017 - TCU 24 UT 7
2018 - UT 31 TCU 16
2019 - TCU 37 UT 27
2020 - TCU 33 UT 31

TCU scored 266 points in those games; UT 165. TCU's winning percentage is 77.7%; UT's 22.2%.

(08-22-2021 02:35 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  I took a paragraph from an article and posted it. That was not the whole article. He was not predicting that the Big 12 was done as a conference, just as a power conference. It was a good article.

The only prediction I see regarding the Big12 is the one you posted, that they will have "no choice but to scatter". You can say that is not saying the Big12 is done as a conference, but it sure as heck sounds like it is.

As far as the economic decline of the LA Times, I was not talking about "during Covid", I was referring to its decline over the past two decades. The commanding heights of the nation's newspapers may well be the last to be hollowed out and then fall, but the vulture capitalists hollowing out papers all across the countries small towns to medium sized cities is already well underway, and it's going to get to many of the pinnacles as well over the next decade or two.

So flipping the script on his demise of the Big12 paragraph may have been exaggerating a bit ... but that was the point of flipping the script, to underline that he may well be exaggerating a bit.

(08-22-2021 07:07 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  In the SWC the “Tie Breaker “ was head to head competition …Houston WON and earned their victory in the Cotton Bowl as THE SWC Champs


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The SWC had an interesting tie breaker after head to head that sometimes came into play during three way ties—- the school that had not been to the Cotton Bowl in the longest time got the Cotton Bowl berth.

To attempt to get this thread back on topic, here's TCU's record against Pac 12 schools since 1998:

1998 - TCU 28 USC 19
1999 - Arizona 35 TCU 31
2003 - TCU 13 Arizona 10
2007 - TCU 38 Stanford 36
2008 - TCU 31 Stanford 14
2010 - TCU 30 Oregon State 21
2016 - TCU 47 Oregon 41
2017 - TCU 39 Stanford 37
2018 - TCU 10 Cal 7

And, although the Utah games were all either in the WAC or MWC, the 2010 game was after Utah had announced that they were joining the Pac 12, and that score was TCU 55 Utah 17. So that's 9-1 since 1998 against 7 different teams, a good cross-section of the conference. And, while Coach Patterson was with TCU as DC in the 1999 L to Zona, as HC, he's never lost to a Pac 12 school. Given that TCU ranks above all Pac 12 schools other than USC in TV ratings, a 9-1 actual record over the past 25 years in football games only accentuates the "value" that TCU could bring...

The pac 12 just going all Texas could work with smu, tcu, Texas tech, and Houston. It would make more sense to drop SMU and pick up Kansas or Ok state. Yet, I do wonder if the pac 12 was interested in KU if the big 10 would jump in and invite them. As for Ok state, the fancy pants academic types might not approve

The answer is none. Read Jon Wilner's hotline today. No schools are seen to add value without Texas and Oklahoma. The Pac-12 gets $24m per school from 1st/2nd tier TV rights, and that is expected to jump 20% --a good minimum bet based on the valuation jumps all conferences have seen-- so about $30m range. For any school to be added must be above that valuation. Without Texas and Oklahoma there isn't one in the Big 12. The primary driver for the Pac-12 is closing the revenue gap to the B1G and SEC. Being a little better than Washington State or Utah wont cut it. The value needs to be more like UCLA, Washington or Arizona State category.

Remember also that TV ratings are lower in the West due to kickoff time. When Pac-12 games start at 9am or 10am Pacific time they do far better, fully competitive with Big Ten and SEC games of the same caliber schools.

I just don’t believe the pac 12 would lose $ adding Kansas and Texas tech to get to 14. They KO the big 12 as a power league, add central time schools and markets.

(08-23-2021 11:59 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The answer is none. Read Jon Wilner's hotline today. No schools are seen to add value without Texas and Oklahoma. The Pac-12 gets $24m per school from 1st/2nd tier TV rights, and that is expected to jump 20% --a good minimum bet based on the valuation jumps all conferences have seen-- so about $30m range. For any school to be added must be above that valuation. Without Texas and Oklahoma there isn't one in the Big 12. The primary driver for the Pac-12 is closing the revenue gap to the B1G and SEC. Being a little better than Washington State or Utah wont cut it. The value needs to be more like UCLA, Washington or Arizona State category.

Remember also that TV ratings are lower in the West due to kickoff time. When Pac-12 games start at 9am or 10am Pacific time they do far better, fully competitive with Big Ten and SEC games of the same caliber schools.

I would think the bar would be lower in the PAC since they have 0 schools that want to play noon home games.

Any central timezone team would generate a new line of revenue as now the PAC would have at least 4 noon games to offer without resistance or pushback.