I mentioned in the OU/UT thread about former Texas A&M's president saying there was a "gentleman's agreement" in the SEC not to expand to any school in a state with a current SEC member without that member school's OK.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ue-schools

Assuming the smoke from the OU/UT to the SEC is indeed fire, it looks like the gentlemen's agreement is dead and without a doubt getting the top dog in the second most populous state in the country is a game changer financially to the SEC. Adding Louisville or Georgia Tech doesn't add any new states and you can argue UK and UGa cover the Louisville and Atlanta markets well enough. Clemson of course is a valuable football brand right now but a 7-5 Clemson team wouldn't be much more valuable than the University of South Carolina. Florida is now the top dog in the Sunshine State but having the second banana in Florida is valuable even though FSU is a mediocre team right now.

Missouri was added to the SEC on November 6, 2011 (Wikipedia). Clemson would go on to win the ACC Championship Game that year but before then hadn't won the ACC since 2011. Florida State last won the ACC in 2005. Virginia Tech had won three of four between 2007 and 2010. If the SEC were to take any team from the states that already had SEC members in 2011, they probably would have taken Florida State over Clemson. Even in 2012, Florida State would have made more sense. Unless you had a crystal ball and knew by the 2020's that Dabo Swinney would be the 2nd best college football coach and Florida State would be the 4th best college football team ... in the state of Florida, you would take Florida State over Clemson.

So in the Schmolik Hypothetical, the 2010's SEC expansion is Texas A&M and Florida State. The University of Florida doesn't like it like Texas A&M doesn't like it now. But the rest of the SEC wants FSU and the increased exposure in Florida. So how does realignment change?

My scenario: Maryland still goes to the Big Ten with Rutgers, possibly negotiating earlier after knowing FSU left. The ACC decides to stand pat at 12 teams for football and 13 for men's/women's basketball. Missouri is stuck in the Big 12. They add TCU to replace Texas A&M who still left. West Virginia is still stuck in the old Big East as is Louisville. Tulane and Tulsa are left out of the AAC and are stuck in C-USA which means two C-USA members don't get the call up and are still in the Sun Belt.

The SEC has an East division without Missouri, the UF/FSU rivalry, and no awkward "Midwestern" teams. The ACC doesn't have any teams that aren't in "Atlantic" states. The Big 12 doesn't have any teams in the Central Time Zone and the MU/KU rivalry remains intact. The AAC still has WV and Lville and Louisville is still playing Cincinnati and Memphis. Florida State wins, Louisville and West Virginia loses. The SEC and Big 12 win, the ACC loses (no FSU or Louisville).

Another possibility: The Big Ten snatches up Missouri along with Maryland. West Virginia still gets the golden ticket out of the AAC and Rutgers is the team stuck there along with Louisville.

Another possibility: After the ACC loses Florida State, they panic and add Louisville early. Then after Maryland is taken, they have to take either West Virginia or Connecticut. If the Big Ten takes Missouri and Maryland, Connecticut or Rutgers as #14.

(07-22-2021 09:31 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I mentioned in the OU/UT thread about former Texas A&M's president saying there was a "gentleman's agreement" in the SEC not to expand to any school in a state with a current SEC member without that member school's OK.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ue-schools

Assuming the smoke from the OU/UT to the SEC is indeed fire, it looks like the gentlemen's agreement is dead and without a doubt getting the top dog in the second most populous state in the country is a game changer financially to the SEC. Adding Louisville or Georgia Tech doesn't add any new states and you can argue UK and UGa cover the Louisville and Atlanta markets well enough. Clemson of course is a valuable football brand right now but a 7-5 Clemson team wouldn't be much more valuable than the University of South Carolina. Florida is now the top dog in the Sunshine State but having the second banana in Florida is valuable even though FSU is a mediocre team right now.

Missouri was added to the SEC on November 6, 2011 (Wikipedia). Clemson would go on to win the ACC Championship Game that year but before then hadn't won the ACC since 2011. Florida State last won the ACC in 2005. Virginia Tech had won three of four between 2007 and 2010. If the SEC were to take any team from the states that already had SEC members in 2011, they probably would have taken Florida State over Clemson. Even in 2012, Florida State would have made more sense. Unless you had a crystal ball and knew by the 2020's that Dabo Swinney would be the 2nd best college football coach and Florida State would be the 4th best college football team ... in the state of Florida, you would take Florida State over Clemson.

So in the Schmolik Hypothetical, the 2010's SEC expansion is Texas A&M and Florida State. The University of Florida doesn't like it like Texas A&M doesn't like it now. But the rest of the SEC wants FSU and the increased exposure in Florida. So how does realignment change?

My scenario: Maryland still goes to the Big Ten with Rutgers, possibly negotiating earlier after knowing FSU left. The ACC decides to stand pat at 12 teams for football and 13 for men's/women's basketball. Missouri is stuck in the Big 12. They add TCU to replace Texas A&M who still left. West Virginia is still stuck in the old Big East as is Louisville. Tulane and Tulsa are left out of the AAC and are stuck in C-USA which means two C-USA members don't get the call up and are still in the Sun Belt.

The SEC has an East division without Missouri, the UF/FSU rivalry, and no awkward "Midwestern" teams. The ACC doesn't have any teams that aren't in "Atlantic" states. The Big 12 doesn't have any teams in the Central Time Zone and the MU/KU rivalry remains intact. The AAC still has WV and Lville and Louisville is still playing Cincinnati and Memphis. Florida State wins, Louisville and West Virginia loses. The SEC and Big 12 win, the ACC loses (no FSU or Louisville).

Another possibility: The Big Ten snatches up Missouri along with Maryland. West Virginia still gets the golden ticket out of the AAC and Rutgers is the team stuck there along with Louisville.

Another possibility: After the ACC loses Florida State, they panic and add Louisville early. Then after Maryland is taken, they have to take either West Virginia or Connecticut. If the Big Ten takes Missouri and Maryland, Connecticut or Rutgers as #14.

Cincinnati would have been added, not UConn or West Va. Only Cincy could get enough votes.

One thing to keep in mind when it comes to the "votes" is that Florida State would already be gone in this scenario. That's one less objection to UConn and the basketball schools couldn't care less if anyone else left (unless they had crystal balls and knew Clemson would win two more national championships in the future) so they'd push more for UConn over West Virginia (or Cincinnati).

You're also judging UConn by 2021 standards. Remember that they played in the 2011 Fiesta Bowl. They might not be Louisville good in football but they weren't UConn 2021 bad either.

Some of my old Bleacher Report commentaries involving the SEC back in the 2010's:

This was after they added Texas A&M and before they added Missouri. I was more of an ACC fan and I wrote that I hoped that the SEC didn't take Florida State.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/8795...-over-with

This was before the SEC took Texas A&M and it was anti-Clemson. It didn't age well. But keep in mind it was written in June 2010 before Dabo had won one ACC Championship (he had just completed one season at Clemson). If I were to insult Arkansas today and Sam Pittman wins two national championships by 2030, am I an idiot for saying Arkansas sucks now or that the Big Ten shouldn't consider adding Arkansas?
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/4053...-expansion

If I understand the timeline right, I wonder if instead of Rutgers/Maryland the Big 10 takes Missouri/Kansas to add to Nebraska in that scenario.

If that is the case, West Virginia and Louisville may wind up in the Big 12, since the ACC has no extra spot for Louisville.

So, the Big 12 would be:
OK State
OK
Texas
Tech
Baylor
TCU
Kansas St.
Iowa St.
West Virginia
Louisville

Alternatively, if the Big 10 took Kansas/Missouri to add to Nebraska, they could complete their 16 by taking Rutgers/Maryland.

In that scenario, I wonder if the PAC 16 makes a comeback afterall.
The ACC takes Louisville back to return to 14.

The Big 12 remainders are TCU/Baylor/Kansas St/Iowa St./West Virginia and we aren't very far off from where we are today.