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If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
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Big Ron Buckeye Offline
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Post: #1
If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
The last round of realignments absolutely crushed the Big 12. The monsters of the conference then and now are Oklahoma and Texas but consider what they actually lost. Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, & Texas A&M. All in their own States heavyweights. All in their own States Flagship universities (Texas A&M shares resources evenly with Texas). All except Nebraska AAU members (and Nebraska had the designation for roughly 100 years.
The only reason The Big 12 survived was because Texas wanted it to. Oklahoma is a juggernaut and has multiple options but if we are honest, the league is held together by the whim of UT and everyone knows it.
The thing now is that the SEC and B1G are about to lap the Big 12, ACC, and Pac 12. My guess is that Texas and Oklahoma got together and said "the rest of the league is basically dead weight. If we stick together our value would probably improve the most by going to the SEC. The ONLY issue is A&M blocking but I think that objection can be overcome by all of the money that can be made. In the unlikely event that A&M is successful at blocking UT, I foresee Texas & Oklahoma refusing to re-up in the Big 12 essentially imploding it as the SWC was imploded and then shopping themselves as a couple to the Pac-12, B1G, and ACC or considering to go independent. If I had to bet I think order of likelihood of the preceding outcomes I'd say:
35% Join the SEC Makes to much sense (and money)
25% Keep the Big 12 alive
15% Join the B1G (Good money terrible Geography)
10% Join the ACC (Tobacco Road is intriguing, bad geography)
10% Go independent (football would be find but need somewhere to park other sports)
5% Join the PAC 12 (If they wanted it they would have joined circa 2010, bad kick times, bad geography, and terrible leadership has taken the luster off of the left coast.)
07-21-2021 06:38 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
Don’t kid yourself. If this goes down The Big Ten will be well behind The SEC too.
07-21-2021 07:10 PM
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Big Ron Buckeye Offline
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
(07-21-2021 07:10 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Don’t kid yourself. If this goes down The Big Ten will be well behind The SEC too.

No doubt about it. The SEC is already the best football conference. I estimate a move like this would put them 25-40% ahead of the Big Ten in terms of revenue.
07-21-2021 07:20 PM
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USAFMEDIC Offline
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
Texas and Oklahoma has been toying with the Big XII for decades. They've had things all their way, which will not happen or continue as members of the SEC. I still do not see it happening.
07-21-2021 10:27 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
Both schools will say they are leaving in 2025, not renewing GOR. Of course.

So do the little-8 try to force them out and begin negotiating early exit fees and waiving of the GOR? Would ESPN and CBS allow that?

One thing we do know, SoonerTV, if the little-8 decide to let them stay four years, will switch production from FOX and BTN to ESPN for the last three years.
07-21-2021 10:44 PM
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Claw Online
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
Texas and OK moving to the SEC right as NIL takes off is not a coincidence.

No one on here is talking about it, but the simple fact is SEC endorsements will bring way more money that Big XII endorsements. There is no way to fight that. So they aren't. They are joining the SEC.
07-21-2021 10:47 PM
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ArmoredUpKnight Online
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
Big12 owns the trademarks for the Big14 name. Go ahead and use it add teams till you get the 14.

If you can hold the remaining 8 teams, add 6.

Rivalries will help too since you are losing the most iconic rivalry in college football.

Cincy (keg of nails)
UCF (war on I-4)
South Florida (war on I-4)
BYU
Memphis
SMU (Iron Skillet)

AAC tv money was negotiated before the CFP expansion news. If ESPN or Fox can guarantee the AAC expansion candidates more tv money, we will likely jump.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2021 10:56 PM by ArmoredUpKnight.)
07-21-2021 10:51 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
(07-21-2021 10:51 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Big12 owns the trademarks for the Big14 name. Go ahead and use it add teams till you get the 14.

If you can hold the remaining 8 teams, add 6.

Rivalries will help too since you are losing the most iconic rivalry in college football.

Cincy (keg of nails)
UCF (war on I-4)
South Florida (war on I-4)
BYU
Memphis
SMU (Iron Skillet)

AAC tv money was negotiated before the CFP expansion news. If ESPN or Fox can guarantee the AAC expansion candidates more tv money, we will likely jump.

Brand dilution is not the way to go. The little-8 are not that stupid.

I'm increasingly of the opinion they will ride out four years with Texas and OU, as that brings the most money. They will negotiate to select two schools (only) as replacements in conjunction with ESPN consultants to maximize value and get the best contract possible. This gives them four years to find them. The last thing they want to do is trigger a revaluation of the existing contract by changing membership in booting Texas and Oklahoma. Even if they can extract $75m each for leaving three years before their contract expires, they have to worry that the contracts with ESPN and CBS will lose more than that in value (only $6.5m drop per school per year makes that a money loser), not to mention reduced exposure. It's still advantageous to have OU and Texas on the schedule for the next four years, two home football games and four basketball games, over not.

After emotions blow off some steam, cooler heads will point that out. It's better to ride out the four years and methodically work out the replacement plan even inviting as much as two and a half years in advance (AAC rules have a crazy 27 month notice rule). Plenty of time to vet them with their media partners and get the best next TV contract.

Riding out also gives the remaining schools four years to shop themselves to the other three power conferences. Who knows, one or two of them might get lucky. There's your Machiavelli angle, which I'm sure KU and WVU have got to be thinking of. Perhaps Baylor, OK State and TCU have similar thoughts.
07-21-2021 11:16 PM
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jgkojak Offline
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Post: #9
RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
I don't see TX and OU riding out the B12 for 3 more years (or more). I'd say next season would have to be the last if they are actively getting out.

I think a deal is struck of some time to make 22-23 the first year of new alignment.

B12 is dissolved...
KS and ISU to B1G
WV and TCU to AAC
OSU, KSU, Baylor,, TT to P12/16


B12 adds members...
Cincinatti, BYU (if 10)
Colorado State, Houston (if 12)
07-21-2021 11:25 PM
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bigblueblindness Offline
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
I actually kind of love a new Big 12 that looks like this:

BYU
Colorado State
New Mexico (if they can get their act together)
Boise State
Kansas State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas Tech
Baylor
UNLV
San Diego State

I would let suggest a comparable version in the east with similar level schools:

SMU
Houston
Memphis
Cincinnati
West Virginia
Temple
East Carolina
UCF
USF
and then three more who will commit to punch in that weight class (Louisiana, UAB, Georgia State, Charlotte, etc.)

I do not believe that any of these universities are going to be able to compete with the SEC or BIG, so why not go with best cultural and institutional fits to create value? Short answer long, I do not think the Big 12 is dead as long as they do not try to keep up with the SEC and BIG.
(This post was last modified: 07-22-2021 12:03 AM by bigblueblindness.)
07-22-2021 12:03 AM
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goofus Offline
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
Just because the Big 12 owns the media rights for Tex and Ok until 2024-2025 does not mean they have to stay in the Big 12 until 2024-2025. Tex and Ok could leave for the SEC starting in the 2023 season, but all the media revenue for their home games would go to the Big 12 in 2023-2024 and 2024-2025.

But of course that could get complicated. Would the tv contract the Big 12 signed still be considered valid if Ok and Tex leave early? If not, that could mean a big loss in revenue for the Big 12 starting in 2023. Could the Big 12 sue? So, yeah, there will have to be some kind of settlement if they try to leave early.
(This post was last modified: 07-22-2021 12:05 AM by goofus.)
07-22-2021 12:04 AM
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johnintx Offline
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
(07-21-2021 10:44 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  One thing we do know, SoonerTV, if the little-8 decide to let them stay four years, will switch production from FOX and BTN to ESPN for the last three years.

OU's Tier 3 went to Sinclair (Bally Sports) when they bought the Fox regional networks. The content was formerly on Fox Sports Oklahoma/Fox Sports Southwest and the Atlantic/Central/Pacific feeds. It is now on Bally Sports Oklahoma/Bally Sports Southwest. It is produced in-house at OU in conjunction with Bally Sports. There is 1 year left on the contract.

If the SEC deal goes through, ESPN gets OU's Tier 3 rights. An interim deal with ESPN could end up on any ESPN platform until OU is in the SEC.

That $59 PPV game will go away!
(This post was last modified: 07-22-2021 12:09 AM by johnintx.)
07-22-2021 12:07 AM
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mikeinsec127 Offline
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
The B12 wouldn't be dead, but no matter what it does do, it will be a G6 conference.
07-22-2021 08:48 AM
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ken d Online
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
(07-21-2021 07:20 PM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 07:10 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Don’t kid yourself. If this goes down The Big Ten will be well behind The SEC too.

No doubt about it. The SEC is already the best football conference. I estimate a move like this would put them 25-40% ahead of the Big Ten in terms of revenue.

Fortunately for the B1G, 75% of what the SEC will be getting will still keep the wolf from the door, even if player costs escalate dramatically. Beyond some point, more money isn't going to have much effect on teams' performance.
07-22-2021 09:42 AM
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Eichorst Online
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
(07-21-2021 07:10 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Don’t kid yourself. If this goes down The Big Ten will be well behind The SEC too.

That's why this move is so brilliant. There's no move that any of the other power conferences can make that will match it. We now have a structure of the SEC clearly on top followed by 3 major conferences, and a spectrum of the remaining conferences. Who could the B1G possibly add that keeps up in the arms race?
07-22-2021 10:08 AM
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goofus Offline
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RE: If Texas has no more use for the Big12... It's dead
The concept of the P5 is dead but that does not mean we will end up with a P4 and G6. Instead there is now a clear pecking order for FBS conferences.

1. SEC
2. BIG TEN
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

The Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 and AAC's main priority going forward will be to maintain their place in line and not drop below anybody else. Depending on how many teams the Big 12 takes from the AAC, the AAC may end up even dropping below the MWC in the pecking order.

The only thing that could blow this up is certain teams from the Big Ten and ACC leaving to form some kind of super conference made up of only the Big Ten's and ACC's best programs.
07-22-2021 10:16 AM
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