jedclampett
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RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 05:04 PM)usffan Wrote: With apologies to vick mike, I just wasted a good 30 minutes looking at the composite Massey rankings for a bunch of teams...
FWIW, here are the mean and median end of year composite Massey rankings from 2013-2020 for each football team that spent more than 1 year in the AAC (w/ high and low rankings included)
Central Florida = Mean 43.12, Median 26, High 7, Low 127
Memphis = Mean 46.38, Median 43.5, High 13, Low 102
Cincinnati = Mean 53.5, Median 52.5, High 5, Low 101
Navy = Mean 55.62, Median 48.5, High 20, Low 103
Houston = Mean 56.38, Median 57, High 12, Low 86
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Here are some of the schools that come up in posts by (a supporter of
AAC expansion):
Boise State = Mean 31.38, Median 28, High 17, Low 53
App. State = Mean 43, Median 35, High 19, Low 88
BYU = Mean 48.88, Median 46, High 9, Low 103
SDSU = Mean 55.62, Median 51.5, High 37, Low 81
Marshall = Mean 61.38, Median 58.5, High 21, Low 123
Air Force = Mean 66.88, Median 62.5, High 24, Low 114
Army = Mean 79.25, Median 88, High 28, Low 118
Liberty = Mean 77, Median 89, High 41, Low 101
UAB = Mean 78.33, Median 82, High 43, Low 115
Buffalo = Mean 81.12, Median 81, High 35, Low 127
Colorado State = Mean 83.5, Median 84, High 37, Low 113
Coastal Carolina = Mean 86.25, Median 106, High 13, Low 120
Georgia State = Mean 106, Median 107, High 75, Low 128
These are the schools that I have suggested might be among the conference's better expansion candidates:
Boise State = Mean 31.38, Median 28, High 17, Low 53
App. State = Mean 43, Median 35, High 19, Low 88
BYU = Mean 48.88, Median 46, High 9, Low 103
SDSU = Mean 55.62, Median 51.5, High 37, Low 81
Air Force = Mean 66.88, Median 62.5, High 24, Low 114
Army = Mean 79.25, Median 88, High 28, Low 118
App. State's rankings suggest that they would be one of the most competitive expansion teams. Their viewership numbers haven't yet matched those of the top AAC teams, but might improve if they were to join the conference.
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These were mentioned as schools that the AAC might consider adding, but I haven't described them as leading contenders:
Colorado State = Mean 83.5, Median 84, High 37, Low 113
Marshall = Mean 61.38, Median 58.5, High 21, Low 123
Buffalo = Mean 81.12, Median 81, High 35, Low 127............No longer seems to be a contender.
I've never been strongly in favor of adding CSU, but mentioned them as a school that might be part of a Western expansion. Marshall was listed as a potential Eastern candidate that might be considered, and I once suggested that Buffalo might be considered as a northeastern replacement for UConn.
(05-31-2021 05:04 PM)usffan Wrote: "Here are some of the schools that come up in posts by a certain..."
Liberty = Mean 77, Median 89, High 41, Low 101...NO
UAB = Mean 78.33, Median 82, High 43, Low 115...NO
Coastal Carolina = Mean 86.25, Median 106, High 13, Low 120...NO
Georgia State = Mean 106, Median 107, High 75, Low 128...NO
Some readers have suggested adding three of these schools, but I have never done so. I have written in opposition to the idea of adding Liberty, UAB, Georgia State, or any other school (Coastal Carolina, SJSU) that has only had intermittent or occasional FB success.
(05-31-2021 05:04 PM)usffan Wrote: As you look at that data, Boise is CLEARLY the best football program, and any attempt to downplay their football program isn't being honest - they average nearly 12 positions higher than every team in the AAC over the life of the conference.
Agree.
(05-31-2021 05:04 PM)usffan Wrote: A better case than I anticipated can be made for Appalachian State...
True. Appalachian State's mean and median rankings have been higher than those of the top football programs in the AAC.
In addition, they have maintained a higher winning percentage than any AAC team, winning 10.0 games per year, including all 6 of their bowl games between 2014 and 2020.
If national rankings and winning percentages were the only considerations, Appalachian State would be a strong expansion candidate. However, their television viewership hasn't yet approached that of the top AAC teams.
(05-31-2021 05:04 PM)usffan Wrote: If the "14 team" thing happens, it also seems really clear that Boise, BYU and SDSU are the best football options... SDSU finishes an average of 11+ spots higher than Air Force, and Colorado State would be pretty much at the bottom of the AAC.
They probably are the top three football options, and they're probably the top three all-sports options, as well, since they've all had basketball teams in recent NCAA tournaments.
(05-31-2021 05:04 PM)usffan Wrote: ...None of the (football) schools in the eastern or central time zones would move the needle at all.
If you're referring to the viewership "needle," you have a point, although the top SBC teams played some high viewership games in 2019 and 2020. When it comes to competitiveness on the field and national rankings, Appalachian State may be a program to watch.
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(This post was last modified: 06-02-2021 09:07 AM by jedclampett.)
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