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End of regular season TV viewership
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #21
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-24-2020 10:28 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 10:18 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 06:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  AAC CCG drew 1.88 million on ABC----not bad going head to head with the SEC CCG and a Stanford-UCLA game. Thats the top non-power CCG rating this year. The MW was closest among the G4---drawing 1.42 million on FOX OTA.


Date/time Game Net Rtg. +/- Vwrs. +/-
12/19, 4:00p CLEM-ND ABC 5.5 +129% 9.92M +150%
12/19, 8:00p ALA-UF CBS 4.9 -38% 8.92M -35%
12/19, Noon OSU-NWSTN FOX 4.65 -39% 8.03M -41%
12/18, 3.85M ORE-USC FOX 2.25 -36% 3.85M -34%
12/19, Noon OKLA-IA ST ABC 1.8 -67% 2.99M -66%
12/19, 8:00p CIN-TULSA ABC 1.15 -39% 1.88M -35%
12/19, Noon T A&M-TENN ESPN 1.0 +108% 1.66M +129%
12/19, 4:30p SJSU-BOISE ST FOX 0.9 +143% 1.42M +158%
12/18, 7:00p BALL-BUFF ESPN 0.49 +104% 875K +144%
12/19, 5:30p ILL-PSU FS1 0.37 — 739K —
12/18, 7:30p NEB-RUTG BTN not available 610K —
12/19, 7:00p STAN-UCLA ESPN 0.34 — 596K —
12/19, 11:00p ASU-OSU ESPN 0.33 — 543K —
12/19, 1:30p WASH ST-UTA FS1 0.17 — 302K

That is a real good AAC number considering all the games in that time slot, and where the casual fan might be tuned in. I'd say that the 1.88 mil were hard core AAC fans.

Counterpoint - worst AAC CCG viewership ever. And we've gone head to head with the SEC before.
2020 1.880 million h2h vs SEC
2019 2.880 million h2h vs SEC
2018 3.321 million h2h vs SEC
2017 3.385 million h2h vs BigXII (oh, and the MAC)
2016 2.050 million h2h vs CUSA CCG and non-ccg BigXII games
2015 2.450 million h2h vs CUSA CCG and non-ccg BigXII games

The SEC CCG dropped by a percentage like the AAC, so it's nothing to panic over. more competition from NFL and from more non-ccg games, and more. Just another 2020 asterisk. But I wouldn't want to oversell it - still the worst ever, when the Cincinnati CFP talk (within a national media conversation of "these committee rankings are messed up") should have gotten more non-hardcore-AAC-fans.

I would agree except the games went in such a way it was known that Cicny had zero shot to make cfp. I also think Alabama letting Florida stay in the game hurt us as well. Alabama takes them behind the woodshed and the AAC picks up viewers.
12-24-2020 10:45 AM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #22
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-24-2020 10:45 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-24-2020 10:28 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 10:18 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 06:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  AAC CCG drew 1.88 million on ABC----not bad going head to head with the SEC CCG and a Stanford-UCLA game. Thats the top non-power CCG rating this year. The MW was closest among the G4---drawing 1.42 million on FOX OTA.


Date/time Game Net Rtg. +/- Vwrs. +/-
12/19, 4:00p CLEM-ND ABC 5.5 +129% 9.92M +150%
12/19, 8:00p ALA-UF CBS 4.9 -38% 8.92M -35%
12/19, Noon OSU-NWSTN FOX 4.65 -39% 8.03M -41%
12/18, 3.85M ORE-USC FOX 2.25 -36% 3.85M -34%
12/19, Noon OKLA-IA ST ABC 1.8 -67% 2.99M -66%
12/19, 8:00p CIN-TULSA ABC 1.15 -39% 1.88M -35%
12/19, Noon T A&M-TENN ESPN 1.0 +108% 1.66M +129%
12/19, 4:30p SJSU-BOISE ST FOX 0.9 +143% 1.42M +158%
12/18, 7:00p BALL-BUFF ESPN 0.49 +104% 875K +144%
12/19, 5:30p ILL-PSU FS1 0.37 — 739K —
12/18, 7:30p NEB-RUTG BTN not available 610K —
12/19, 7:00p STAN-UCLA ESPN 0.34 — 596K —
12/19, 11:00p ASU-OSU ESPN 0.33 — 543K —
12/19, 1:30p WASH ST-UTA FS1 0.17 — 302K

That is a real good AAC number considering all the games in that time slot, and where the casual fan might be tuned in. I'd say that the 1.88 mil were hard core AAC fans.

Counterpoint - worst AAC CCG viewership ever. And we've gone head to head with the SEC before.
2020 1.880 million h2h vs SEC
2019 2.880 million h2h vs SEC
2018 3.321 million h2h vs SEC
2017 3.385 million h2h vs BigXII (oh, and the MAC)
2016 2.050 million h2h vs CUSA CCG and non-ccg BigXII games
2015 2.450 million h2h vs CUSA CCG and non-ccg BigXII games

The SEC CCG dropped by a percentage like the AAC, so it's nothing to panic over. more competition from NFL and from more non-ccg games, and more. Just another 2020 asterisk. But I wouldn't want to oversell it - still the worst ever, when the Cincinnati CFP talk (within a national media conversation of "these committee rankings are messed up") should have gotten more non-hardcore-AAC-fans.

I would agree except the games went in such a way it was known that Cicny had zero shot to make cfp. I also think Alabama letting Florida stay in the game hurt us as well. Alabama takes them behind the woodshed and the AAC picks up viewers.

Those are good points, too. I still say just another 2020 asterisk.
12-24-2020 12:41 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #23
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-24-2020 12:41 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-24-2020 10:45 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-24-2020 10:28 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 10:18 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 06:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  AAC CCG drew 1.88 million on ABC----not bad going head to head with the SEC CCG and a Stanford-UCLA game. Thats the top non-power CCG rating this year. The MW was closest among the G4---drawing 1.42 million on FOX OTA.


Date/time Game Net Rtg. +/- Vwrs. +/-
12/19, 4:00p CLEM-ND ABC 5.5 +129% 9.92M +150%
12/19, 8:00p ALA-UF CBS 4.9 -38% 8.92M -35%
12/19, Noon OSU-NWSTN FOX 4.65 -39% 8.03M -41%
12/18, 3.85M ORE-USC FOX 2.25 -36% 3.85M -34%
12/19, Noon OKLA-IA ST ABC 1.8 -67% 2.99M -66%
12/19, 8:00p CIN-TULSA ABC 1.15 -39% 1.88M -35%
12/19, Noon T A&M-TENN ESPN 1.0 +108% 1.66M +129%
12/19, 4:30p SJSU-BOISE ST FOX 0.9 +143% 1.42M +158%
12/18, 7:00p BALL-BUFF ESPN 0.49 +104% 875K +144%
12/19, 5:30p ILL-PSU FS1 0.37 — 739K —
12/18, 7:30p NEB-RUTG BTN not available 610K —
12/19, 7:00p STAN-UCLA ESPN 0.34 — 596K —
12/19, 11:00p ASU-OSU ESPN 0.33 — 543K —
12/19, 1:30p WASH ST-UTA FS1 0.17 — 302K

That is a real good AAC number considering all the games in that time slot, and where the casual fan might be tuned in. I'd say that the 1.88 mil were hard core AAC fans.

Counterpoint - worst AAC CCG viewership ever. And we've gone head to head with the SEC before.
2020 1.880 million h2h vs SEC
2019 2.880 million h2h vs SEC
2018 3.321 million h2h vs SEC
2017 3.385 million h2h vs BigXII (oh, and the MAC)
2016 2.050 million h2h vs CUSA CCG and non-ccg BigXII games
2015 2.450 million h2h vs CUSA CCG and non-ccg BigXII games

The SEC CCG dropped by a percentage like the AAC, so it's nothing to panic over. more competition from NFL and from more non-ccg games, and more. Just another 2020 asterisk. But I wouldn't want to oversell it - still the worst ever, when the Cincinnati CFP talk (within a national media conversation of "these committee rankings are messed up") should have gotten more non-hardcore-AAC-fans.

I would agree except the games went in such a way it was known that Cicny had zero shot to make cfp. I also think Alabama letting Florida stay in the game hurt us as well. Alabama takes them behind the woodshed and the AAC picks up viewers.

Those are good points, too. I still say just another 2020 asterisk.

Yes, it's such an odd year, unfortunately it will force you to make little footnotes about it as you continue to accumulate the data. This is a year wear average per game and then the relationship between the numbers say 1st place to 6th and 6th to 10th for comparison on the p6 campaign will be the best we can hope for. Its useful but it leaves out a lot of data. Rough year for that with the new tv deal and wanting to see its impact. Luckily since it is the first year we could just cut it out like a transition year and look at the next season for effects.
12-24-2020 02:40 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #24
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
Was this 2020 football season the last year of our old 2013 TV deal or the first season under the deal that was negotiated last year?
(This post was last modified: 12-24-2020 09:02 PM by quo vadis.)
12-24-2020 09:01 PM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #25
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-24-2020 09:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Was this 2020 football season the last year of our old 2013 TV deal or the first season under the deal that was negotiated last year?

First year of the new deal.
With all the disruption and overall lost games, the AAC still had fewer games on rated networks than in 2019 (last year of the prior deal).
We also had fewer ESPN+ games than the new deal shoulda/woulda had in a normal year. Without checking line by line, I'll say we were more top heavy (ABC- ESPN vs ESPN2-ESPNU) than in 2019 but that was in large part due to getting more of those early without autonomy conferences playing.
Along with all the other asterisks for 2020, we'll have to wait for 2021 for a good comparison of the new deal's exposure, ratings, total viewers, vs 2019.
(This post was last modified: 12-24-2020 09:24 PM by slhNavy91.)
12-24-2020 09:19 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #26
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-24-2020 09:19 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-24-2020 09:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Was this 2020 football season the last year of our old 2013 TV deal or the first season under the deal that was negotiated last year?

First year of the new deal.
With all the disruption and overall lost games, the AAC still had fewer games on rated networks than in 2019 (last year of the prior deal).
We also had fewer ESPN+ games than the new deal shoulda/woulda had in a normal year.
Along with all the other asterisks for 2020, we'll have to wait for 2021 for a good comparison of the new deal's exposure, ratings, total viewers, vs 2019.

Thanks .... Do we know if the money was pro-rated due to fewer games being played, or did we play all the games called for by the contract?
12-24-2020 09:22 PM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #27
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-24-2020 09:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-24-2020 09:19 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-24-2020 09:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Was this 2020 football season the last year of our old 2013 TV deal or the first season under the deal that was negotiated last year?

First year of the new deal.
With all the disruption and overall lost games, the AAC still had fewer games on rated networks than in 2019 (last year of the prior deal).
We also had fewer ESPN+ games than the new deal shoulda/woulda had in a normal year.
Along with all the other asterisks for 2020, we'll have to wait for 2021 for a good comparison of the new deal's exposure, ratings, total viewers, vs 2019.

Thanks .... Do we know if the money was pro-rated due to fewer games being played, or did we play all the games called for by the contract?

So...

Our nominal inventory for 2020 for Disney (taking out the "Navy tier" of the AAC-CBSSN deal) should have been 62 games: ND@Navy (BYU@Navy was a direct substitute for that) and one Navy NMCMS game (originally Memphis, ended up Tulsa game), plus 6 home games for the other 10 teams.
The deal should be 20 on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 and total of 40 on those networks plus ESPNU. Remainder (22 in even years, 21 in odd years) to ESPN+

I show us with 5 on ABC, 10 on ESPN, 13 on ESPN2 and 1 on ESPNU.
2019 full season: 4 on ABC, 9 on ESPN, 12 on ESPN2, and 12 on ESPNU.

A good number on the higher networks were early in the season, and even some bump-ups after other cancellation.
Even with fewer games overall, we delivered product OVER the contract for the 20 on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2. But fewer games than the 40 for all linear. I have to dig for what was on ESPN+ -- and some of the games counted above were on a linear network AND ESPN+ after a bump-up -- but definitely fewer than 22.
Did that get pro-rated? I certainly have no insider knowledge. It will be a year and a half before we see the Form 990 data. Big unknowledgable guess I'd say little to no adjustment: we filled timeslots on the top networks above and beyond the contract. But hey, good will and relationships for the future only go so far in business.
12-24-2020 09:49 PM
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E-zone Offline
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Post: #28
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-23-2020 12:20 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:00 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  How does it look per televised game, rather than in gross viewers?

Viewers per rated game, conference controlled inventory, 2020:
SEC 3,607,061
ACC 3,240,219
B1G 2,338,154
B12 1,588,367
P12 1,422,323
AAC 760,500
MAC 597,500
SBC 538,105
mwc 473,000
CUSA 444,667

ACC had the two biggest games in the Clemson-ND matchups.
MAC had several games just under a million with the return of MACTION, but a lot of n.a. which I drop off.

Just for grins, BYU's home games "independent controlled" averaged 621,167 and for all games they averaged 792,700 -- their only three over a million were at Navy, at Houston, and at Coastal.

So BYU was in 2 of the AAC 4 million plus games, but the crazy thing was BYU's other million plus game (Coastal) was on ESPNU.
12-24-2020 11:55 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #29
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-24-2020 11:55 PM)E-zone Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:20 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:00 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  How does it look per televised game, rather than in gross viewers?

Viewers per rated game, conference controlled inventory, 2020:
SEC 3,607,061
ACC 3,240,219
B1G 2,338,154
B12 1,588,367
P12 1,422,323
AAC 760,500
MAC 597,500
SBC 538,105
mwc 473,000
CUSA 444,667

ACC had the two biggest games in the Clemson-ND matchups.
MAC had several games just under a million with the return of MACTION, but a lot of n.a. which I drop off.

Just for grins, BYU's home games "independent controlled" averaged 621,167 and for all games they averaged 792,700 -- their only three over a million were at Navy, at Houston, and at Coastal.

So BYU was in 2 of the AAC 4 million plus games, but the crazy thing was BYU's other million plus game (Coastal) was on ESPNU.

The AAC had like 12 one million games with UCF-ECU and Notre Dame-USF (USA network) a few thousand short.

Two of the three BYU million viewer games involved AAC teams with the third game being the ESPNU match up with coastal.
12-25-2020 12:17 AM
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Post: #30
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
This stuff hurts my brain, but all I can say is we need to put a full-court press on to get BYU.
12-25-2020 12:38 AM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #31
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-23-2020 12:47 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:42 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:20 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:00 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  How does it look per televised game, rather than in gross viewers?

Viewers per rated game, conference controlled inventory, 2020:
SEC 3,607,061
ACC 3,240,219
B1G 2,338,154
B12 1,588,367
P12 1,422,323
AAC 760,500
MAC 597,500
SBC 538,105
mwc 473,000
CUSA 444,667

ACC had the two biggest games in the Clemson-ND matchups.
MAC had several games just under a million with the return of MACTION, but a lot of n.a. which I drop off.

Just for grins, BYU's home games "independent controlled" averaged 621,167 and for all games they averaged 792,700 -- their only three over a million were at Navy, at Houston, and at Coastal.

Thanks for the work and the continual progress. The trends seen to be pretty clear even in a pandemic year most of the numbers are similar in relationship to each other. It's going to be interesting to see how our computer rankings stack up again. I expect it will be similar to other years with Sunbelt replacing the the MW in that usual 7 spot. Next year lines up nice if the schedules hold, covid is controlled, and we win, lots of good games that should boost our viewership numbers and rankings.

Before CCG weekend, looking at the old BCS computers (except Wolfe, which has not reported all year, probably due to lack of connectedness) average of average rankings:

AAC 63.27
SBC 79.44
mwc 80.1
MAC 90.1
CUSA 96.46

I looked again - after CCG weekend (oh, and Sagarin may have already been running numbers bowl game by bowl game, in addition to having the FCS all in there), the conferences' average of five average rankings:
AAC 64.6
SBC 78.68
mwc 80.45
MAC 90.71
CUSA 97.98
12-25-2020 10:21 PM
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Post: #32
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-25-2020 10:21 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:47 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:42 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:20 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:00 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  How does it look per televised game, rather than in gross viewers?

Viewers per rated game, conference controlled inventory, 2020:
SEC 3,607,061
ACC 3,240,219
B1G 2,338,154
B12 1,588,367
P12 1,422,323
AAC 760,500
MAC 597,500
SBC 538,105
mwc 473,000
CUSA 444,667

ACC had the two biggest games in the Clemson-ND matchups.
MAC had several games just under a million with the return of MACTION, but a lot of n.a. which I drop off.

Just for grins, BYU's home games "independent controlled" averaged 621,167 and for all games they averaged 792,700 -- their only three over a million were at Navy, at Houston, and at Coastal.

Thanks for the work and the continual progress. The trends seen to be pretty clear even in a pandemic year most of the numbers are similar in relationship to each other. It's going to be interesting to see how our computer rankings stack up again. I expect it will be similar to other years with Sunbelt replacing the the MW in that usual 7 spot. Next year lines up nice if the schedules hold, covid is controlled, and we win, lots of good games that should boost our viewership numbers and rankings.

Before CCG weekend, looking at the old BCS computers (except Wolfe, which has not reported all year, probably due to lack of connectedness) average of average rankings:

AAC 63.27
SBC 79.44
mwc 80.1
MAC 90.1
CUSA 96.46

I looked again - after CCG weekend (oh, and Sagarin may have already been running numbers bowl game by bowl game, in addition to having the FCS all in there), the conferences' average of five average rankings:
AAC 64.6
SBC 78.68
mwc 80.45
MAC 90.71
CUSA 97.98

What of the p5, I expected our usual performance versus the g4 and suspected the belt had passed the Mountain West for the year, although the MAC being better than CUSA is enlightening.
12-26-2020 01:15 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #33
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-25-2020 10:21 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:47 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:42 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:20 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:00 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  How does it look per televised game, rather than in gross viewers?

Viewers per rated game, conference controlled inventory, 2020:
SEC 3,607,061
ACC 3,240,219
B1G 2,338,154
B12 1,588,367
P12 1,422,323
AAC 760,500
MAC 597,500
SBC 538,105
mwc 473,000
CUSA 444,667

ACC had the two biggest games in the Clemson-ND matchups.
MAC had several games just under a million with the return of MACTION, but a lot of n.a. which I drop off.

Just for grins, BYU's home games "independent controlled" averaged 621,167 and for all games they averaged 792,700 -- their only three over a million were at Navy, at Houston, and at Coastal.

Thanks for the work and the continual progress. The trends seen to be pretty clear even in a pandemic year most of the numbers are similar in relationship to each other. It's going to be interesting to see how our computer rankings stack up again. I expect it will be similar to other years with Sunbelt replacing the the MW in that usual 7 spot. Next year lines up nice if the schedules hold, covid is controlled, and we win, lots of good games that should boost our viewership numbers and rankings.

Before CCG weekend, looking at the old BCS computers (except Wolfe, which has not reported all year, probably due to lack of connectedness) average of average rankings:

AAC 63.27
SBC 79.44
mwc 80.1
MAC 90.1
CUSA 96.46

I looked again - after CCG weekend (oh, and Sagarin may have already been running numbers bowl game by bowl game, in addition to having the FCS all in there), the conferences' average of five average rankings:
AAC 64.6
SBC 78.68
mwc 80.45
MAC 90.71
CUSA 97.98

Computers numbers are very difficult to trust this year, because of the significantly fewer number of OOC games played. For example, going in to the bowls, this is how many FBS OOC games each G5 conference had played this year (first number) and in 2016 (second number):

AAC ... 15 .... 36
MW .... 5 ..... 38
CUSA.. 27 .... 40
SB ..... 25 ... 34
MAC .. 0 ...... 35

You can see the enormous differences. In particular, the MAC has not played any OOC games at all so are totally non-comparable to any other conference. You can't rely on "internal efficiency" measures either, because again it is a closed universe, all numbers are being generated within the conference. The MW has played only 5 games so again, not enough data points. And even among CUSA/SB/AAC, the confidence intervals and margins of error are likely to be significantly wider because of the reduced data points.
(This post was last modified: 12-26-2020 09:25 AM by quo vadis.)
12-26-2020 09:24 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #34
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-26-2020 01:15 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-25-2020 10:21 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:47 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:42 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:20 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Viewers per rated game, conference controlled inventory, 2020:
SEC 3,607,061
ACC 3,240,219
B1G 2,338,154
B12 1,588,367
P12 1,422,323
AAC 760,500
MAC 597,500
SBC 538,105
mwc 473,000
CUSA 444,667

ACC had the two biggest games in the Clemson-ND matchups.
MAC had several games just under a million with the return of MACTION, but a lot of n.a. which I drop off.

Just for grins, BYU's home games "independent controlled" averaged 621,167 and for all games they averaged 792,700 -- their only three over a million were at Navy, at Houston, and at Coastal.

Thanks for the work and the continual progress. The trends seen to be pretty clear even in a pandemic year most of the numbers are similar in relationship to each other. It's going to be interesting to see how our computer rankings stack up again. I expect it will be similar to other years with Sunbelt replacing the the MW in that usual 7 spot. Next year lines up nice if the schedules hold, covid is controlled, and we win, lots of good games that should boost our viewership numbers and rankings.

Before CCG weekend, looking at the old BCS computers (except Wolfe, which has not reported all year, probably due to lack of connectedness) average of average rankings:

AAC 63.27
SBC 79.44
mwc 80.1
MAC 90.1
CUSA 96.46

I looked again - after CCG weekend (oh, and Sagarin may have already been running numbers bowl game by bowl game, in addition to having the FCS all in there), the conferences' average of five average rankings:
AAC 64.6
SBC 78.68
mwc 80.45
MAC 90.71
CUSA 97.98

What of the p5, I expected our usual performance versus the g4 and suspected the belt had passed the Mountain West for the year, although the MAC being better than CUSA is enlightening.

Even with limited data, one thing we can say about the AAC vs other G5 is that the AAC has not been nearly as good as it was last year.

Last year, the AAC finished the season (regular and bowls) with a whopping 20-2 record vs other non-P5 (G5 and Indies other than Notre Dame).

This year, the overall record was 8-8 against the same group of opponents. You don't need to be a math whiz to see that this is much closer to the 2018 performance, when the AAC went 9-10 against that crew and finished behind the MW in the CFP conference rankings than to last year's exceptional run.
(This post was last modified: 12-26-2020 09:28 AM by quo vadis.)
12-26-2020 09:28 AM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #35
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-26-2020 09:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 01:15 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-25-2020 10:21 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:47 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:42 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  Thanks for the work and the continual progress. The trends seen to be pretty clear even in a pandemic year most of the numbers are similar in relationship to each other. It's going to be interesting to see how our computer rankings stack up again. I expect it will be similar to other years with Sunbelt replacing the the MW in that usual 7 spot. Next year lines up nice if the schedules hold, covid is controlled, and we win, lots of good games that should boost our viewership numbers and rankings.

Before CCG weekend, looking at the old BCS computers (except Wolfe, which has not reported all year, probably due to lack of connectedness) average of average rankings:

AAC 63.27
SBC 79.44
mwc 80.1
MAC 90.1
CUSA 96.46

I looked again - after CCG weekend (oh, and Sagarin may have already been running numbers bowl game by bowl game, in addition to having the FCS all in there), the conferences' average of five average rankings:
AAC 64.6
SBC 78.68
mwc 80.45
MAC 90.71
CUSA 97.98

What of the p5, I expected our usual performance versus the g4 and suspected the belt had passed the Mountain West for the year, although the MAC being better than CUSA is enlightening.

Even with limited data, one thing we can say about the AAC vs other G5 is that the AAC has not been nearly as good as it was last year.

Last year, the AAC finished the season (regular and bowls) with a whopping 20-2 record vs other non-P5 (G5 and Indies other than Notre Dame).

This year, the overall record was 8-8 against the same group of opponents. You don't need to be a math whiz to see that this is much closer to the 2018 performance, when the AAC went 9-10 against that crew and finished behind the MW in the CFP conference rankings than to last year's exceptional run.

As always Quo you are spinning. Which is why I asked SLH about it and not you or Jed.

Its amusing to watch you explain how the numbers don't really mean anything because.......but the AAC sucks anyway, because of the numbers.

I am not looking at this year as a stand alone or even really for accuracy, rather I am considering it in the overall trend since funny enough all teams operated under similar parameters as they have every other year and will in any future years.

SLH had amassed a ton of data across various metrics to compare the AAC or even individual teams. Since we have some years of previous data we can get a little info out of this season with some reliability. Over the next year or two the pandemic year will blend in with the other accumulated data and will still give us an accurate info because it will be shared by everyone and the other data will smooth out the unusual set.
12-26-2020 10:21 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #36
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-26-2020 10:21 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 09:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 01:15 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-25-2020 10:21 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-23-2020 12:47 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Before CCG weekend, looking at the old BCS computers (except Wolfe, which has not reported all year, probably due to lack of connectedness) average of average rankings:

AAC 63.27
SBC 79.44
mwc 80.1
MAC 90.1
CUSA 96.46

I looked again - after CCG weekend (oh, and Sagarin may have already been running numbers bowl game by bowl game, in addition to having the FCS all in there), the conferences' average of five average rankings:
AAC 64.6
SBC 78.68
mwc 80.45
MAC 90.71
CUSA 97.98

What of the p5, I expected our usual performance versus the g4 and suspected the belt had passed the Mountain West for the year, although the MAC being better than CUSA is enlightening.

Even with limited data, one thing we can say about the AAC vs other G5 is that the AAC has not been nearly as good as it was last year.

Last year, the AAC finished the season (regular and bowls) with a whopping 20-2 record vs other non-P5 (G5 and Indies other than Notre Dame).

This year, the overall record was 8-8 against the same group of opponents. You don't need to be a math whiz to see that this is much closer to the 2018 performance, when the AAC went 9-10 against that crew and finished behind the MW in the CFP conference rankings than to last year's exceptional run.

As always Quo you are spinning. Which is why I asked SLH about it and not you or Jed.

Its amusing to watch you explain how the numbers don't really mean anything because.......but the AAC sucks anyway, because of the numbers.

Talk about an amusing spin. I said computers are basically useless. Computers use formula that include a lot of different variables and then combine them using mathematical operations to derive values. That's a bit different than looking at just wins and losses. So not the same "numbers" at all.

Also, I did not say the AAC 'sucked' this year. I said the AAC was not nearly as good compared to other G5 this year versus last year. And that's absolutely true, the wins/losses tell us that.

The AAC may have been the best G5 this year, as it often is. But last year, the AAC was not only far ahead of the other G5, it was essentially equal with the ACC, meaning it did perform like a P6 conference. This year, definitely more like pre-2019 years.
(This post was last modified: 12-26-2020 10:59 AM by quo vadis.)
12-26-2020 10:53 AM
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Post: #37
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-26-2020 10:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 10:21 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 09:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 01:15 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-25-2020 10:21 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  I looked again - after CCG weekend (oh, and Sagarin may have already been running numbers bowl game by bowl game, in addition to having the FCS all in there), the conferences' average of five average rankings:
AAC 64.6
SBC 78.68
mwc 80.45
MAC 90.71
CUSA 97.98

What of the p5, I expected our usual performance versus the g4 and suspected the belt had passed the Mountain West for the year, although the MAC being better than CUSA is enlightening.

Even with limited data, one thing we can say about the AAC vs other G5 is that the AAC has not been nearly as good as it was last year.

Last year, the AAC finished the season (regular and bowls) with a whopping 20-2 record vs other non-P5 (G5 and Indies other than Notre Dame).

This year, the overall record was 8-8 against the same group of opponents. You don't need to be a math whiz to see that this is much closer to the 2018 performance, when the AAC went 9-10 against that crew and finished behind the MW in the CFP conference rankings than to last year's exceptional run.

As always Quo you are spinning. Which is why I asked SLH about it and not you or Jed.

Its amusing to watch you explain how the numbers don't really mean anything because.......but the AAC sucks anyway, because of the numbers.

Talk about an amusing spin. I said computers are basically useless. Computers use formula that include a lot of different variables and then combine them using mathematical operations to derive values. That's a bit different than looking at just wins and losses. So not the same "numbers" at all.

Also, I did not say the AAC 'sucked' this year. I said the AAC was not nearly as good compared to other G5 this year versus last year. And that's absolutely true, the wins/losses tell us that.

The AAC may have been the best G5 this year, as it often is. But last year, the AAC was not only far ahead of the other G5, it was essentially equal with the ACC, meaning it did perform like a P6 conference. This year, definitely more like pre-2019 years.

AAC before the bowls:
4-0 vs FCS
3-1 vs SunBelt
2-0 vs CUSA
0-1 vs mwc (sorry, conference colleagues).

Yeah, 5-2 not nearly as good as last year but far from terrible vs the G4 conferences.

Add in independents - AAC was 0-2 vs BYU and 2-1 vs Army. For comparison at the conference level, mwc was 0-2 vs BYU and 0-1 vs Army. For all the value the 5 December win brought Coastal Carolina, it doesn't say much about overall conference comparison, because the Belt was 1-2 vs BYU.
Anyway, add in 1-1 vs the ACC and 0-1 vs B12.

12-7 ooc
8-7 ooc FBS

Anderson & Hester had that 12-7 being against the strongest OOC schedule strength (half the conferences listed as N/A) leading to the AAC being their second ranked conference in OOC performance (ACC-AAC-B12-Belt-CUSA). Or that's an example of the computers doing poorly with small, not-connected datasets.

Catching up with the bowl results to date.
2 Ls vs the mwc. Bummer. 3-3 in conference lost to 4-4 in conference and 3-5 in conference lost to 6-2 in conference.
Another L to BYU
W vs CUSA - AAC's #3 vs CUSA #3-#5

Totals up to date 26 December:
4-0 vs FCS
3-1 vs SunBelt
3-0 vs CUSA
0-3 vs mwc
0-3 vs BYU
2-1 vs Army

So there's no way we should be closer to the "P5" than to the G4, right?

Massey Composite as of 26 December (60 rankings compiled):
#5 ACC 52.87
#6 AAC 63.62
#7 SBC 74.34
#8 mwc 79.63
#9 MAC 81.31
#10 CUSA 92.2

The gap from #5 to #6 is .03 avg ranking spots more than the gap from #6 to #7. AAC is closer to #1 than to #8-10.

Might be worth putting an asterisk on this if computers are basically useless in 2020.
Except it looks a lot like most every other year.

2020 AAC #6, 0.03 away from being closer to #5 than to #7 SBC. Closer to #1 than to #8-10
2019 AAC #5, Ahead of the ACC at #6. Closer to #2 than to the #7 mwc. Closer to #1 SEC than to #8-#10
2018 AAC #7. mwc at #6 was 2.48 avg ranking spots better...in the AAC's six years as #6 (or #5) deltas to #7 have averaged 12.18
2017 AAC #6. Closer to #5 than to #7-10. Closer to #1 than to #9-10.
2016 AAC #6. Closer to #5 than to #8-10. Gap from #6-7 58% of the gap from #5-6.
2015 AAC #6. Closer to #5 than to #7-10.
2014 AAC was #8. But from the #8 slot, closer to #6 than any G4 has been to the AAC at #6 since then.
2013 AAC #6.
(This post was last modified: 12-26-2020 11:48 AM by slhNavy91.)
12-26-2020 11:41 AM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #38
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
Any debate about whether computer ranking systems are basically useless is itself basically useless in one aspect.

The CFP revenue distribution to the non-contract-bowl-conferences will be pro-rated for performance. Performance will be measured as in every other year, reports indicating a composite of the BCS computers. The AAC will again be #1 among those conferences and will again be financially rewarded as such.
The AAC has again secured the CFP NY6 bowl bid with the highest ranked champion among the five champions of the five non-contract-bowl conferences. The AAC will again be financially rewarded as such.

In a normal year that would look like a distribution of $26 million to the AAC, $18.5 million to the SBC, and $17 million to the mwc.
(We shall see (I mean, at least within a year and a half) how the CFP revenue distribution has changed from a non-pandemic year. The TV money should be largely unchanged. Attendance issues will hit the contract-bowl-conferences' payouts from their contract bowls. Will the $4 million (+$2million for team expenses) from the NY6 slot decrease? We shall see.)
(This post was last modified: 12-26-2020 12:03 PM by slhNavy91.)
12-26-2020 12:02 PM
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Post: #39
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-26-2020 11:41 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 10:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 10:21 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 09:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 01:15 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  What of the p5, I expected our usual performance versus the g4 and suspected the belt had passed the Mountain West for the year, although the MAC being better than CUSA is enlightening.

Even with limited data, one thing we can say about the AAC vs other G5 is that the AAC has not been nearly as good as it was last year.

Last year, the AAC finished the season (regular and bowls) with a whopping 20-2 record vs other non-P5 (G5 and Indies other than Notre Dame).

This year, the overall record was 8-8 against the same group of opponents. You don't need to be a math whiz to see that this is much closer to the 2018 performance, when the AAC went 9-10 against that crew and finished behind the MW in the CFP conference rankings than to last year's exceptional run.

As always Quo you are spinning. Which is why I asked SLH about it and not you or Jed.

Its amusing to watch you explain how the numbers don't really mean anything because.......but the AAC sucks anyway, because of the numbers.

Talk about an amusing spin. I said computers are basically useless. Computers use formula that include a lot of different variables and then combine them using mathematical operations to derive values. That's a bit different than looking at just wins and losses. So not the same "numbers" at all.

Also, I did not say the AAC 'sucked' this year. I said the AAC was not nearly as good compared to other G5 this year versus last year. And that's absolutely true, the wins/losses tell us that.

The AAC may have been the best G5 this year, as it often is. But last year, the AAC was not only far ahead of the other G5, it was essentially equal with the ACC, meaning it did perform like a P6 conference. This year, definitely more like pre-2019 years.

AAC before the bowls:
4-0 vs FCS
3-1 vs SunBelt
2-0 vs CUSA
0-1 vs mwc (sorry, conference colleagues).

Yeah, 5-2 not nearly as good as last year but far from terrible vs the G4 conferences.

Add in independents - AAC was 0-2 vs BYU and 2-1 vs Army. For comparison at the conference level, mwc was 0-2 vs BYU and 0-1 vs Army. For all the value the 5 December win brought Coastal Carolina, it doesn't say much about overall conference comparison, because the Belt was 1-2 vs BYU.
Anyway, add in 1-1 vs the ACC and 0-1 vs B12.

12-7 ooc
8-7 ooc FBS

Anderson & Hester had that 12-7 being against the strongest OOC schedule strength (half the conferences listed as N/A) leading to the AAC being their second ranked conference in OOC performance (ACC-AAC-B12-Belt-CUSA). Or that's an example of the computers doing poorly with small, not-connected datasets.

Catching up with the bowl results to date.
2 Ls vs the mwc. Bummer. 3-3 in conference lost to 4-4 in conference and 3-5 in conference lost to 6-2 in conference.
Another L to BYU
W vs CUSA - AAC's #3 vs CUSA #3-#5

Totals up to date 26 December:
4-0 vs FCS
3-1 vs SunBelt
3-0 vs CUSA
0-3 vs mwc
0-3 vs BYU
2-1 vs Army

So there's no way we should be closer to the "P5" than to the G4, right?

Massey Composite as of 26 December (60 rankings compiled):
#5 ACC 52.87
#6 AAC 63.62
#7 SBC 74.34
#8 mwc 79.63
#9 MAC 81.31
#10 CUSA 92.2

The gap from #5 to #6 is .03 avg ranking spots more than the gap from #6 to #7. AAC is closer to #1 than to #8-10.

Might be worth putting an asterisk on this if computers are basically useless in 2020.
Except it looks a lot like most every other year.

2020 AAC #6, 0.03 away from being closer to #5 than to #7 SBC. Closer to #1 than to #8-10
2019 AAC #5, Ahead of the ACC at #6. Closer to #2 than to the #7 mwc. Closer to #1 SEC than to #8-#10
2018 AAC #7. mwc at #6 was 2.48 avg ranking spots better...in the AAC's six years as #6 (or #5) deltas to #7 have averaged 12.18
2017 AAC #6. Closer to #5 than to #7-10. Closer to #1 than to #9-10.
2016 AAC #6. Closer to #5 than to #8-10. Gap from #6-7 58% of the gap from #5-6.
2015 AAC #6. Closer to #5 than to #7-10.
2014 AAC was #8. But from the #8 slot, closer to #6 than any G4 has been to the AAC at #6 since then.
2013 AAC #6.

So despite all the differences of 2020 to other years it appears that the trend continues of us being a tweeter who is much closer to the top 5 than the bottom four. Although it appears a golden opportunity to repeat last years finish as the number 5 conference was missed. Tulsa missing at OK St and our current poor bowl performance being key since the sample size is so small. Need Tulsa and Cincy to win and get us respectable in record and some juice in the rankings to try and close up with number 5 and further seperate from number 7.

Thank you SLH this is the sort of relevant data that we can actually use in a year that will be heavy in the remember that was the pandemic year.
12-26-2020 12:14 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #40
RE: End of regular season TV viewership
(12-26-2020 11:41 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 10:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 10:21 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 09:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-26-2020 01:15 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  What of the p5, I expected our usual performance versus the g4 and suspected the belt had passed the Mountain West for the year, although the MAC being better than CUSA is enlightening.

Even with limited data, one thing we can say about the AAC vs other G5 is that the AAC has not been nearly as good as it was last year.

Last year, the AAC finished the season (regular and bowls) with a whopping 20-2 record vs other non-P5 (G5 and Indies other than Notre Dame).

This year, the overall record was 8-8 against the same group of opponents. You don't need to be a math whiz to see that this is much closer to the 2018 performance, when the AAC went 9-10 against that crew and finished behind the MW in the CFP conference rankings than to last year's exceptional run.

As always Quo you are spinning. Which is why I asked SLH about it and not you or Jed.

Its amusing to watch you explain how the numbers don't really mean anything because.......but the AAC sucks anyway, because of the numbers.

Talk about an amusing spin. I said computers are basically useless. Computers use formula that include a lot of different variables and then combine them using mathematical operations to derive values. That's a bit different than looking at just wins and losses. So not the same "numbers" at all.

Also, I did not say the AAC 'sucked' this year. I said the AAC was not nearly as good compared to other G5 this year versus last year. And that's absolutely true, the wins/losses tell us that.

The AAC may have been the best G5 this year, as it often is. But last year, the AAC was not only far ahead of the other G5, it was essentially equal with the ACC, meaning it did perform like a P6 conference. This year, definitely more like pre-2019 years.

AAC before the bowls:
4-0 vs FCS
3-1 vs SunBelt
2-0 vs CUSA
0-1 vs mwc (sorry, conference colleagues).

Yeah, 5-2 not nearly as good as last year but far from terrible vs the G4 conferences.

Add in independents - AAC was 0-2 vs BYU and 2-1 vs Army.

I did not say the AAC was 'terrible' vs other G5 conferences. To the contrary, I said the AAC may have been the best of the G5 conferences this year. It's hard to tell given that computers cannot be relied on.

What I did say was that the AAC wasn't nearly as good as last year, when it performed as basically a P6 on the field, not the usual tweener or G5 second-place conference. As in:

"Last year, the AAC finished the season (regular and bowls) with a whopping 20-2 record vs other non-P5 (G5 and Indies other than Notre Dame).

This year, the overall record was 8-8 against the same group of opponents. You don't need to be a math whiz to see that this is much closer to the 2018 performance, when the AAC went 9-10 against that crew and finished behind the MW in the CFP conference rankings than to last year's exceptional run."

20 - 2 vs 8 - 8 basically tells the tale.
12-26-2020 01:04 PM
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