(06-09-2021 08:09 AM)doss2 Wrote: (06-09-2021 07:31 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: (06-09-2021 07:27 AM)nachoman91 Wrote: (06-09-2021 07:18 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: (06-09-2021 07:14 AM)nachoman91 Wrote: There is no way the CFP committee is going to automatically allow any undefeated team into the playoff. If three or four or five G5 teams go undefeated in one year due to weak scheduling and are all put in the playoffs, the P5 schools will go bonkers.
If adding BYU, Boise, etc turns the AAC into an actual P6 conference with a better TV deal and an autobid to the playoff then I'm all for it.
There have been TWO in the last 24 years with multiple G5 undefeated teams, last year where Covid killed OOC schedules for most teams, and I'm including 2009 in that with us and TCU...I think people fail to realize how unlikely even having one undefeated G5 team is.
If you change the rules to allow any undefeated team to make the playoffs you'll see a dramatic shift in scheduling and thus the amount of undefeated teams each year. What incentive would any G5 team have to schedule a high or mid-tier P5 teams if going undefeated is the goal.
The fact that those buy games float their operating budgets...there was an article in a Higher Ed journal that outlined just how much those support smaller ADs last year during the pandemic. In 2019, there were 36 FBS programs who had over 30% of their unencumbered operating budgets (non-student fee related revenue) supported by buy game payouts. Dump those bad boys and you may as well move the MAC, Sun Belt, and CUSA to FCS.
Fine, how about you allow entry for any any undefeated team with at least two wins against auto-bid conference teams. Done. That's essentially as convoluted as the BCS entry rules for the Big East and we were fine with those.
Does anyone have stats on the number of undefeated in conference teams occurred in the last 10 or so years? That would gives us an idea if scheduling down would create a lot more undefeated teams.
Excluding the AAC and teams who are currently in a P5 conferece in this exercise and team who were undefeated including a Conference Championship Games into the count of conference records (with OOC loses in parenthesis). I think if you have the 2 A6 games qualifier you don't have to worry about anything.
2019: Boise State (who lost to BYU, Finished #18, argument could've been made)
2018: No one
2017: FAU (who lost to Navy, Buffalo, and Wisconsin)
2016: Western Michigan (#10 in the country, deserving of a spot on merit)
2015: Western Kentucky (who lost to Indiana and LSU) and San Diego State (who lost to Call, South Alabama, and Penn State)
2014: No one
2013: No one
2012: Northern Illinois (who lost to Iowa, #10 in the country, deserving of a spot on merit)
2011: Arkansas State (who lost to Virginia Tech and Illinois)
2010: No one
2009: Central Michigan (who lost to Arizona and Boston College) and Boise State (#4 in the country, deserving of a spot on merit)
2008: Boise State (#9 in the country, deserving of a spot on merit)
2007: Hawaii (#10 in the country, deserving of a spot on merit), BYU (lost to
2006: Boise State (#9 in the country, deserving of a spot on merit)
2005: No one
2004: Boise State (#10 in the country, deserving of a spot on merit)
2003: Miami OH (#11 in country, deserving of a spot on merit), Boise State (lost to Oregon State, finished #16 in country with argument to be made)
2002: Boise State (lost to Arkansas, finished #14 with argument to be made)
2001: BYU (lost at Hawaii in Week 14 as the #9 team in the country, argument to be made)
So, in the last two decades, given a normal circumstance, I would say that if the G4 played an FCS OOC and stayed inside their conference, there would've only been 5 undeserving teams (4 years) if you strictly went with the undefeated with no caveats approach, FAU in '17, WKU and SDSU in '15, Arkansas State in '11, and CMU in '09. Going by the "highest ranked team" mantra in the undefeated champs model, you can only get one per year unless more than one are deserving.
So you're putting in ****** teams strictly by saying undefeated conference champions in 4 years, and two of those examples played other G4 teams and lost in OOC, so really, you're sitting at a more likely 2 years out of 20, or a 10% error...and that's without the caveat of playing at least 2 P6 games or having to be ranked above 20 in a computer poll or something. I'd take that. Still gives a shot to deserving teams, while mitigating the fallout of having a ****** team in there.
And before any asks why Georgia State or North Texas aren't in there...they played in a 7 team conference without a CCG, so I didn't include them because that isn't how this scenario would work moving forward (CCG mandatory with a certain amount of conference games [8-9]).