As more good, honest, hard working football loving folks pass away and get replaced by kids who played youth soccer where scores weren’t kept and everyone got a participation trophy I fear the popularity of collegiate football is going to start to wane and with it the tv dollars as media partners decide the pursue programming that appeals to non-football fans rather than paying top dollar to attain the rights to the games college football fans.

If the dollars start shrinking the G5 is going to be hit the hardest as their costs relative to profits are the highest.

So my question is this, at what point do G5 schools decide that they can’t sustain play at that level and how long until will get to that point?

It'll be OK, middle-aged people will turn into bitter jerks and they can do the heavy lifting of college football fandom going forward.

(10-29-2020 06:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As more good, honest, hard working football loving folks pass away and get replaced by kids who played youth soccer where scores aren’t kept and exerting got a participation trophy I fear the popularity of collegiate football is going to start to wane and with it the tv dollars as media partners decide the pursue programming that appeals to non-football fans rather than paying top dollar to attain the rights to the games college football fans.

If the dollars start shrinking the G5 is going to be hit the hardest as their costs relative to profits are the highest.

So my question is this, at what point do G5 schools decide that they can’t sustain play at that level and how long until will get to that point?

The player likeness and image rights may lead to more advertising money being put into the pockets of ESPN and other broadcasters but it will intensify the advantage P5s have in recruiting. I think COVID has exacerbated the financial pitfalls for G5 schools but hope they’ll bounce back.

Idk, some schools may drop but for the most part I think a lot of the G5 schools will continue doing what they are doing. People have been predicting the death of G5 football programs for a decade now, yet they keep chugging away- many improving their fortunes. We have schools like Louisiana-Layfatette and Coastal Carolina now being relevant and getting a lot of air time. Were there is a will there is a way.

Football - like baseball, boxing, and horse racing - will always be #1.

(10-30-2020 07:21 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Idk, some schools may drop but for the most part I think a lot of the G5 schools will continue doing what they are doing. People have been predicting the death of G5 football programs for a decade now, yet they keep chugging away- many improving their fortunes. We have schools like Louisiana-Layfatette and Coastal Carolina now being relevant and getting a lot of air time. Were there is a will there is a way.

Agreed, also not all G5s are created equal. Could FBS use a trimming yes it could but for the most part the G5s will always be around. ECU is a large public school in a large southern growing state with a nice football facilities and a nice large football stadium. Just because we are in a G5 conference doesn't mean we are the same as a San Jose State, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, etc.

(10-30-2020 07:47 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  

(10-30-2020 07:21 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Idk, some schools may drop but for the most part I think a lot of the G5 schools will continue doing what they are doing. People have been predicting the death of G5 football programs for a decade now, yet they keep chugging away- many improving their fortunes. We have schools like Louisiana-Layfatette and Coastal Carolina now being relevant and getting a lot of air time. Were there is a will there is a way.

Agreed, also not all G5s are created equal. Could FBS use a trimming yes it could but for the most part the G5s will always be around. ECU is a large public school in a large southern growing state with a nice football facilities and a nice large football stadium. Just because we are in a G5 conference doesn't mean we are the same as a San Jose State, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, etc.

Agreed. There will be some trimming of the fat, & likely some unexpected moves up & down. I do think we will look back 10 years from now & wonder how we didn't see what was to come much like we currently look back at 2010. We will debate what some schools could have done differently going into 2020 to set themselves up for success leading to 2030, while we will be surprised at some of the schools who rose high because they did make the right decisions going into 2020.

I continue to think soccer will one day overtake football as the most popular sport in the U.S. But I could simply be clueless.

(10-30-2020 07:21 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Idk, some schools may drop but for the most part I think a lot of the G5 schools will continue doing what they are doing. People have been predicting the death of G5 football programs for a decade now, yet they keep chugging away- many improving their fortunes. We have schools like Louisiana-Layfatette and Coastal Carolina now being relevant and getting a lot of air time. Were there is a will there is a way.

Agree. The trends are encouraging. Each year, more G5 FB programs are getting national exposure.

There are currently 7 G5 teams in the AP Top 30, and at least 13 G5 teams have had 2 or more games with viewership of at least half a million, with weeks and weeks to go in the season.

(10-30-2020 07:47 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  

(10-30-2020 07:21 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Idk, some schools may drop but for the most part I think a lot of the G5 schools will continue doing what they are doing. People have been predicting the death of G5 football programs for a decade now, yet they keep chugging away- many improving their fortunes. We have schools like Louisiana-Layfatette and Coastal Carolina now being relevant and getting a lot of air time. Were there is a will there is a way.

Agreed, also not all G5s are created equal. Could FBS use a trimming yes it could but for the most part the G5s will always be around. ECU is a large public school in a large southern growing state with a nice football facilities and a nice large football stadium. Just because we are in a G5 conference doesn't mean we are the same as a San Jose State, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, etc.

Agree that not all are alike or face the same challenges/have same intrinsic benefits. NLI will hurt some and help others. Schools in metro areas with good corporate support should fare just fine and may find it easier to lure talent with not only opportunities to play sooner, but also $.

Excluding the AAC & MWC, G5 teams that are on the rise are: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Louisiana, Texas State, UTSA, North Texas, UAB, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech and Liberty.
As a whole I think the MAC has taken a back seat to the Sun Belt due to Demographics.
Schools like Marshall and Southern Miss are still up there
but I think you have a lot of schools slowing dying on the vine and that includes: Rice, UTEP, the MAC as a whole, FIU, MTSU, WKU, and a few more.

(10-30-2020 09:18 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  Excluding the AAC & MWC, G5 teams that are on the rise are: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Louisiana, Texas State, UTSA, North Texas, UAB, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech and Liberty.
As a whole I think the MAC has taken a back seat to the Sun Belt due to Demographics.
Schools like Marshall and Southern Miss are still up there
but I think you have a lot of schools slowing dying on the vine and that includes: Rice, UTEP, the MAC as a whole, FIU, MTSU, WKU, and a few more.

MTSU is a conundrum. The school is located near a large metro, has a good sized enrollment, and good local recruiting grounds. Not sure why the Blue Raiders can’t put it all together consistently. Must be a leadership issue.

Just a point of clarification—I’m not predicting that football will be dropped en masse by the G5. I’m thinking more along the lines of dropping to FCS competition where the expenses are lower. There could be some institutions that decide to put all their eggs in the basketball basket though.

(10-30-2020 09:52 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just a point of clarification—I’m not predicting that football will be dropped en masse by the G5. I’m thinking more along the lines of dropping to FCS competition where the expenses are lower. There could be some institutions that decide to put all their eggs in the basketball basket though.

So your take on the G5 is nearly the polar opposite of mine.

With the exception of the MAC, which hasn't done anything impressive lately, I predict that the G5 and independents - not including ND - are going to turn out to be "the AFL of the 2020s" (vis a vis the P5, that is).

If you are correct, then the G5 will basically disintegrate, with 80% of the teams dropping down to FCS.

WKU is not dying on any vine. We have won more CUSA Champoinships since joining CUSA than any other school.

Why are you all so concerned. Each school makes the decision to compete on what level the choose.

(10-29-2020 06:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As more good, honest, hard working football loving folks pass away and get replaced by kids who played youth soccer where scores weren’t kept and everyone got a participation trophy I fear the popularity of collegiate football is going to start to wane and with it the tv dollars as media partners decide the pursue programming that appeals to non-football fans rather than paying top dollar to attain the rights to the games college football fans.

If the dollars start shrinking the G5 is going to be hit the hardest as their costs relative to profits are the highest.

So my question is this, at what point do G5 schools decide that they can’t sustain play at that level and how long until will get to that point?

If the only change is that "the dollars start shrinking," then we go back to the model from 2000 (or even 1980 if it shrinks a lot). In that model:
1) regional conferences made more sense
2) the Big Boys had less of an advantage over the small schools


In 2010, Ohio State's highest paid assistant coach made $311k. Darrell Hazell was OSU's Assistant Head Coach, and he got a 13% raise to become Kent State's head coach the next year. He was the lowest paid head coach in the MAC at the time.

Today, Ohio State has 5 assistants making more than every single MAC head coach except Toledo's Jason Candle.

I don’t think the metro schools have any significant advantage. The more remote schools kids stay on campus and going to football is part of the social fiber and many of those students become boosters.

(10-29-2020 06:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I fear the popularity of collegiate football is going to start to wane and with it the tv dollars as media partners decide the pursue programming that appeals to non-football fans...

If the dollars start shrinking the G5 is going to be hit the hardest as their costs relative to profits are the highest.

So my question is this, at what point do G5 schools decide that they can’t sustain play at that level and how long until will get to that point?

Football is still a mega-sport, and viewership numbers remain high. Sure, the popularity of the game might decline over time, but there's little basis right now for a concern about a massive reduction (e.g., a 50% or even a 25% cut). Indeed, it may not diminish much at all.

Even if "the dollars start shrinking," it's not entirely clear that the G5 would be hit the hardest.

It might be, but the networkshave been rethinking their relations with the G5 conferences recently, and they have been boosting the amount they've paid the top G5 conferences by 100% to 200%, which is more than they have been boosting their payments to the P5 conferences on a percentage basis.

Now that it is becoming more common for games between non-P5 teams to generate viewership in the 500,000 to 1,500,000 range, the networks that broadcast college football are beginning to realize that they may be able to get more bang for their buck in terms of potential viewership by investing in conferences such as the AAC and MWC and growing their viewership.

In the long run, the P5 conferences may be starting to max out their revenue streams from the networks, since they're already near their maximum viewership potential. By contrast, the G5 conferences may have considerable room for growth in viewership and thus in potential broadcasting revenue without doing any harm to the network's bottom line.

I don't understand why some P5 fans take issue with the G5 being around. There is a lot of grey area within FBS.

1) The number of schools within the AAC and MWC that are ready to go P5 candidates. There are quite a few of them.

2) Service academies and BYU are brands that you want along for the ride.

3) The promotion regulation function the G5 has served. Rice sliding down to a lower rated CUSA over time while UCF has moved up to the AAC. The G5 is a good developmental tier for the P5.

4) The size of universities in the G5 and the crossover fans for P5 games it brings.

(10-30-2020 08:21 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-29-2020 06:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I fear the popularity of collegiate football is going to start to wane and with it the tv dollars as media partners decide the pursue programming that appeals to non-football fans...

If the dollars start shrinking the G5 is going to be hit the hardest as their costs relative to profits are the highest.

So my question is this, at what point do G5 schools decide that they can’t sustain play at that level and how long until will get to that point?

Football is still a mega-sport, and viewership numbers remain high. Sure, the popularity of the game might decline over time, but there's little basis right now for a concern about a massive reduction (e.g., a 50% or even a 25% cut). Indeed, it may not diminish much at all.

Even if "the dollars start shrinking," it's not entirely clear that the G5 would be hit the hardest.

It might be, but the networkshave been rethinking their relations with the G5 conferences recently, and they have been boosting the amount they've paid the top G5 conferences by 100% to 200%, which is more than they have been boosting their payments to the P5 conferences on a percentage basis.

Now that it is becoming more common for games between non-P5 teams to generate viewership in the 500,000 to 1,500,000 range, the networks that broadcast college football are beginning to realize that they may be able to get more bang for their buck in terms of potential viewership by investing in conferences such as the AAC and MWC and growing their viewership.

In the long run, the P5 conferences may be starting to max out their revenue streams from the networks, since they're already near their maximum viewership potential. By contrast, the G5 conferences may have considerable room for growth in viewership and thus in potential broadcasting revenue without doing any harm to the network's bottom line.

All good points.