(10-29-2020 10:32 AM)JFlight21 Wrote:  

(10-29-2020 08:47 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I think Houston could be top 5 to 10 good this year. After that I think UC's as good as anyone.

I think Houston definitely has the best roster/coach combo so they are easily the favorites but they lost a lot of what made them so good last year. Sampson is so good though that I'm sure they'll be able to adjust on the fly but a couple things I'm watching.

#7 in the country in block rate last year (had #24 2-pt point defense)- lose Chris Harris (2nd leading shot blocker in conference) but return Brison Gresham who needs to stop fouling so much

#2 in offensive rebounding percentage - lose Hinton, Harris and White who were easily their top 3 rebounders amongst contributors (Gresham was also good in limited action but maybe led to some of his foul trouble??)

#8 in 3 point defense - this is typically random from year to year, so you may expect this to jump up next from 28.6% to closer to the D1 average of 33.3%. Controlling the three ball is about limiting attempts - Houston was #238 (2% higher than the D1 avg) in the country in this metric. Probably a function of packing the paint to be so elite at 2-pt defense but certainly something to watch.

I'm sure you'll see big jumps from Mills, Sasser, Grimes (maybe more consistent), etc. but it will be a different stye of winning vs last year's version.

Houston is the AAC’s juggernaut. They will be very difficult to beat - especially at home.