Here are some good numbers to look at:

US Military - 61,000 confirmed cases. 92 deaths.
Veteran Affairs - 57,000 cases. 3,240 deaths.

Old people and sick people are at risk. Younger healthier people aren’t.

My guess is that at least 30,000,000 people have had Covid. The death rate is greatly inflated due to the early blunders in NY, NJ and PA. In May the rate was over 6% of confirmed cases. We had 100,000 deaths before we hit 1.5MM cases. It took almost 5MM more to get to 200,000 and that doesn’t consider all the active cases that were there at the starting point.

And how effective are cloth mask, really? I just don't see them making much of a difference and the way people fiddle with them I'm sure isn't helping keep the virus at bay. Smoke and mirrors.

200,000 have not died from covid. That number is more inflated than slow Joe's GPA claims.

Yup.

Died from the Rona? Or died with the Rona?

Why won’t anyone answer that?!?

I get that it makes more-existing schit much worse, but is it what kills them? Or the other competing issues?

If it simply speeds the inevitable, then that’s what I’ve been saying.

Intentional. Culling the herd.

(09-17-2020 09:16 PM)DFWMINER Wrote:  And how effective are cloth mask, really? I just don't see them making much of a difference and the way people fiddle with them I'm sure isn't helping keep the virus at bay. Smoke and mirrors.

If you know how PPE works you have your answer.


But this is the miracle virus that contradicts everything about every other virus so who knows.

(09-17-2020 04:00 PM)DownEastPirate Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 03:12 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 03:03 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 02:58 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:Currently, the U.S. has a case fatality rate of about 3%, based on 187,000 deaths and 6.2 million infections; however, the infection fatality rate is likely lower since most asymptomatic infections probably aren't detected. The CDC uses 0.65% in its pandemic planning scenarios.

The Cost of Herd Immunity in the U.S.

This is likely where they got their number from.

Regardless, if we stopped all mandates, etc. and just went back to pre-Covid normal, millions would more than likely die. Not to mention our health care system would be overrun.

We can't say that with any certainty.

It seems hundreds of thousands of people had the virus but were asymptomatic and were never aware.

I imagine some of them passed away but most didn't.

How do we factor in those numbers?

How do we factor out false positives?

How do we adjust the fatality rate for incorrect cause-of-death statements?

Clearly, it's all an estimate, but we're at 200k in 6 months with all the lockdown measures that we have done. The problem is that for HI to work by most accounts, you need tens of millions to get infected.

Man, I suspect tens of millions have already been exposed to it. My brother had it, was with him two days in a row indoors and out. I never got it, my wife never got it, his wife never got it. Within the same week my coworkers wife had it, him and I ate lunch together the day she tested positive and were with each other all that day. I never got it and neither did he. My senior citizen neighbors wife had it, he has to take care of her because she had a knee issue and he never got it. Had a customer who had a wife with it, they both quarantined together and he never got it.

You think no one in the situations above were exposed to it? We're probably closer to herd immunity than we think. We just need to keep a watch on the vulnerable. Not to mention another coworker had it and never even went to get tested, whats the point? How many other people do you think have had it and just stayed at home and got over it? It is really bad for some people pre-existing conditions and folks in nursing homes. But the rest of us need to move on.

To what MSNBC is reporting here it's just more scare tactics. Literally the "scientist" keep getting proven wrong over and over again with their predictions but it's somehow deemed OK because they're "scientist". Nobody has seen a virus like this and these doctors are flying by the seat of their pants. It'll be 15 years from now before they'll have the facts straight.

I’ve read several articles where scientist believe as much 40-50% of the population might have some level of natural immunity to Covid (possibly due to being infected by other Covid viruses). You DO NOT have to hit 60-70% infection rates to have a significant impact on the viruses ability to spread.

H1N1 burned out in the US in about a year. The CDC estimated after the fact that around 60 million were infected (though there were only 1 million tests administered and only 115,000 came back positive). They largely based their estimate on after the fact random blood tests that looked for the H1N1 antibodies. The bottom line is the H1N1 pandemic apparently burned out when just 60 million got infected—which is less than 20% of the population. Im guessing that’s probably due to the fact that a sizable chunk of us generally have some some level of natural immunity to the virus—-thus, the 60 million H1N1 infections added to that base group of difficult to infect/natural immunity people—-creating a substantial percentage of the population that were either impossible or very difficult for the virus to infect. Once a virus gets to the point where each case tends to infect less than one additional person, the outbreak begins the burn out trajectory.

Rachel Maddow - I didn't know she was still a thing?

Well, she is an "it" she is just not a thing... right?

(09-18-2020 07:13 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  Rachel Maddow - I didn't know she was still a thing?

Well, she is an "it" she is just not a thing... right?

I am sooooo looking forward to her tears again on election night! She is just awful in every aspect.

(09-17-2020 02:58 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:Currently, the U.S. has a case fatality rate of about 3%, based on 187,000 deaths and 6.2 million infections; however, the infection fatality rate is likely lower since most asymptomatic infections probably aren't detected. The CDC uses 0.65% in its pandemic planning scenarios.

The Cost of Herd Immunity in the U.S.

This is likely where they got their number from.

Regardless, if we stopped all mandates, etc. and just went back to pre-Covid normal, millions would more than likely die. Not to mention our health care system would be overrun.

Doubtful. There was plenty of capacity during the height of this thing.

(09-17-2020 03:36 PM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  question-

how is Kamala supposed to advance her career if she is wearing a mask?

I hear she has soft hands.....

(09-18-2020 08:21 AM)fsquid Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 02:58 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:Currently, the U.S. has a case fatality rate of about 3%, based on 187,000 deaths and 6.2 million infections; however, the infection fatality rate is likely lower since most asymptomatic infections probably aren't detected. The CDC uses 0.65% in its pandemic planning scenarios.

The Cost of Herd Immunity in the U.S.

This is likely where they got their number from.

Regardless, if we stopped all mandates, etc. and just went back to pre-Covid normal, millions would more than likely die. Not to mention our health care system would be overrun.

Doubtful. There was plenty of capacity during the height of this thing.

Most things I've raid said around 200+ million would need to get infected for herd immunity to achieve any type of effect. So yeah, I think that would cause an issue for our hospitals.

(09-18-2020 08:41 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-18-2020 08:21 AM)fsquid Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 02:58 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:Currently, the U.S. has a case fatality rate of about 3%, based on 187,000 deaths and 6.2 million infections; however, the infection fatality rate is likely lower since most asymptomatic infections probably aren't detected. The CDC uses 0.65% in its pandemic planning scenarios.

The Cost of Herd Immunity in the U.S.

This is likely where they got their number from.

Regardless, if we stopped all mandates, etc. and just went back to pre-Covid normal, millions would more than likely die. Not to mention our health care system would be overrun.

Doubtful. There was plenty of capacity during the height of this thing.

Most things I've raid said around 200+ million would need to get infected for herd immunity to achieve any type of effect. So yeah, I think that would cause an issue for our hospitals.

depends on the rate.

(09-18-2020 08:46 AM)fsquid Wrote:  

(09-18-2020 08:41 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-18-2020 08:21 AM)fsquid Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 02:58 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:Currently, the U.S. has a case fatality rate of about 3%, based on 187,000 deaths and 6.2 million infections; however, the infection fatality rate is likely lower since most asymptomatic infections probably aren't detected. The CDC uses 0.65% in its pandemic planning scenarios.

The Cost of Herd Immunity in the U.S.

This is likely where they got their number from.

Regardless, if we stopped all mandates, etc. and just went back to pre-Covid normal, millions would more than likely die. Not to mention our health care system would be overrun.

Doubtful. There was plenty of capacity during the height of this thing.

Most things I've raid said around 200+ million would need to get infected for herd immunity to achieve any type of effect. So yeah, I think that would cause an issue for our hospitals.

depends on the rate.

Of course...and our hospitals have certainly improved things as this has gone on.

Even if you take the low end death rate estimate of around .7% the CDC uses, you would have well over a million deaths...so clearly the people needing hospitalization would be well in excess of that.

This virus was here prior to the lockdowns and other preventative measures and yet the hospitals didn't get swamped. In my opinion far more people have had this than what is being reported.

Baby girl died here in Michigan the other day. Headlines yesterday were she died from COVID. Her mother on social media is posting that's not true

(09-18-2020 01:53 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 04:00 PM)DownEastPirate Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 03:12 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 03:03 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 02:58 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The Cost of Herd Immunity in the U.S.

This is likely where they got their number from.

Regardless, if we stopped all mandates, etc. and just went back to pre-Covid normal, millions would more than likely die. Not to mention our health care system would be overrun.

We can't say that with any certainty.

It seems hundreds of thousands of people had the virus but were asymptomatic and were never aware.

I imagine some of them passed away but most didn't.

How do we factor in those numbers?

How do we factor out false positives?

How do we adjust the fatality rate for incorrect cause-of-death statements?

Clearly, it's all an estimate, but we're at 200k in 6 months with all the lockdown measures that we have done. The problem is that for HI to work by most accounts, you need tens of millions to get infected.

Man, I suspect tens of millions have already been exposed to it. My brother had it, was with him two days in a row indoors and out. I never got it, my wife never got it, his wife never got it. Within the same week my coworkers wife had it, him and I ate lunch together the day she tested positive and were with each other all that day. I never got it and neither did he. My senior citizen neighbors wife had it, he has to take care of her because she had a knee issue and he never got it. Had a customer who had a wife with it, they both quarantined together and he never got it.

You think no one in the situations above were exposed to it? We're probably closer to herd immunity than we think. We just need to keep a watch on the vulnerable. Not to mention another coworker had it and never even went to get tested, whats the point? How many other people do you think have had it and just stayed at home and got over it? It is really bad for some people pre-existing conditions and folks in nursing homes. But the rest of us need to move on.

To what MSNBC is reporting here it's just more scare tactics. Literally the "scientist" keep getting proven wrong over and over again with their predictions but it's somehow deemed OK because they're "scientist". Nobody has seen a virus like this and these doctors are flying by the seat of their pants. It'll be 15 years from now before they'll have the facts straight.

I’ve read several articles where scientist believe as much 40-50% of the population might have some level of natural immunity to Covid (possibly due to being infected by other Covid viruses). You DO NOT have to hit 60-70% infection rates to have a significant impact on the viruses ability to spread.

H1N1 burned out in the US in about a year. The CDC estimated after the fact that around 60 million were infected (though there were only 1 million tests administered and only 115,000 came back positive). They largely based their estimate on after the fact random blood tests that looked for the H1N1 antibodies. The bottom line is the H1N1 pandemic apparently burned out when just 60 million got infected—which is less than 20% of the population. Im guessing that’s probably due to the fact that a sizable chunk of us generally have some some level of natural immunity to the virus—-thus, the 60 million H1N1 infections added to that base group of difficult to infect/natural immunity people—-creating a substantial percentage of the population that were either impossible or very difficult for the virus to infect. Once a virus gets to the point where each case tends to infect less than one additional person, the outbreak begins the burn out trajectory.

The early estimates, before testing was as easy to get, was that the number infected was 10 to 70(!) times the number of official cases. With more widespread testing that ratio has come down, but it is still vastly more than the number of official cases. So our 6.5 million cases could really be anywhere from 30 million to 200 million.

I read somewhere that for this virus, 20% herd immunity is all that is needed as evident by looking at countries were cases are down and or leveled off.

(09-18-2020 08:51 AM)bearcat65 Wrote:  This virus was here prior to the lockdowns and other preventative measures and yet the hospitals didn't get swamped. In my opinion far more people have had this than what is being reported.

not only did they not get swamped, but mobile hospitals that were stood up never received any patients.